Ukerapport norske banker - Kommentarer, kursutvikling og verdsettelse 12.01.2015 Nils Christian Øyen Finansanalytiker Tlf +47 99 500 240 nils.oyen@sb1markets.no Sparebank 1 Markets AS gjør spesielt oppmerksom på at MING utstedes av Sparebank 1 SMN. Det er vedtatt at Sparebank 1 SMN om kort tid vil bli Sparebank 1 Markets AS' morselskap, med en eierandel på 73.3%. Dette innebærer at Sparebank 1 Markets AS ikke kan anses å være nøytral i forhold til Sparebank 1 SMN, og således at denne anbefalingen ikke representerer en nøytral og uavhengig analyse/vurdering. Denne investeringsanbefalingen er å anse som markedsføringsmateriale. Det gjøres oppmerksom på at anbefalingen ikke er utarbeidet i samsvar med regelverket for investeringsanalyser.
Kommentarer: Vi ser på tapsabsorberende evne + tvangsemisjon i Santander Konklusjoner De siste 6 årene har vi ventet forgjeves på større emisjoner i spanske banker. Etter at den øverste tilsynsmyndigheten for bankene i euro-sonen i november ble flyttet fra nasjonale organer til den europeiske sentralbanken ECB ser ventetiden ut til å være over. ECB har ikke kastet bort tiden og brukt de to siste månedene til å hviske sine ønsker om kapitalisering i ørene til de 130 største bankene i Europa. Med en CET 1 på magre 8.7% er Banco Santander tynt kapitalisert i alles øyne, også ECB, og med dette bakteppet gjennomførte Santander en rettet emisjon på EUR 7.5mrd (CET 1 + 140bps) i forrige uke, tilsvarende 9.9% av eksisterende EK. Med styrket kapitalsiering i Santander kan andre banker med svak CET 1 som BNP, Deutsche, Commerzbank bl.a. føle seg kallet av markedet og ECB. Norske banker, og spesielt DNB, får juling av lavere oljepris om dagen. Vi ser at tapsabsorberende evne er betydelig styrket for DNB, som kan tåle tap opp til 2.1% av utlån for vi ser røde tall på bunnlinjen. Aksjen handler under historisk trading intervall etter ytterligere fall i oljeprisen. Regionale banker fremstår fortsatt som moderat priset på P/B 0.87 (2014 bok) og P/E 8.4 på 2015E. Lokale banker handles på P/B 0.74 og P/E 8.6X våre 2015E. Kommentarer 1. Kursutvikling i 2015: Regionale sparebanker -3%, lokale +0% mot Oslo Børs 0% og DNB -10%. 2. Aktuelt fremmedkapital: Benchmark kystbanker fondsobligasjon +310bps, ansvarlig +160bps, senior +60bps og OMF +20bps. 3. Aktuelt makro: Kredittveksten for norske husholdninger faller 0.2% i november til 6.3% 4. Prisingssyklus: Basert på 2014 boken er regionbankene priset til P/B 0.87 og lokalbankene til P/B 0.74. 5. Ukegraf: Vi ser på tapsabsorberende evne. 2
Ukegraf: Den tapsabsorberende evnen til norske banker er økt på høyere marginer break-even nivå for DNB økt fra tap på 1.3% i 2007 til 2.1% i 2015 DNB: Loss absorption capacity* and loan losses as % lending *Operating profit pre loan losses ex Vital 2.5 % Pre-loss profit profit 6% of lending in 3yrs 2.0 % Operating profit pre loan losses 1.5 % Significant buffer 1.0 % 0.5 % Loan losses 0.0 % -0.5 % 3 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15E 16E
Tapene vil stige fremover, men hvor mye? punktestimater gir meget sjelden svaret vi ser på utfallsrommet Tap på utlån - Sparebanker og DNB *Netto tap i % av brutto utlån inkl Boligkreditt. 1.00% 0.75% 0.50% MORG NONG 0.25% MING SRBANK DNB 0.00% -0.25% 4 SVEG Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets
Med normaliserte tap har bankene ROE på 9 12% høyeste observerte tap siste 15 år (70bps) gir fortsatt ROE over 6% Sensitivitet ROE vs tap op utlån - Norske banker* *Tap som % av utlån inkl Boligkreditt. ROE basert på 2015 estimater 15% 1988-93 Regionale banker taper 200bps pa 10% ROE 2015E DNB taper 300bps pa 5% DNB 0% NONG MING -5% -10% 1995-14 Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 0.0% 0.2% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 5 2009 DNB taper 70bps 2008/09 Regionale banker taper ca 30bps. 0.4% MORG SRBANK 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% SVEG 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Tap på utlån
DNB har størst energieksponering, men er motstandsdyktig mot tap grunnet høy andel andre inntekter. MORG har marginal offshore eksponering, men også få andre inntekter å buffre tap mot Sensitivitet EPS vs tap på utlån - Norske banker* *Tap basert på utlån inkludert boligkreditt. EPS basert på 2015 estimater 25 1988-93 Regionale banker taper 200bps p.a 20 DNB taper 300bps p.a EPS 2015E, NOK 15 10 5 DNB NONG 0-5 -10 1995-14 Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 0.0% 0.2% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 6 0.4% MING 2009 DNB taper 70bps 2008/09 Regionale banker taper ca 30bps. SRBANK 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% SVEG MORG 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Tap i % av utlån
Tvangsemisjon i Santander: Henter EUR 7.5mrd, tilsvarende 9.9% av eksisterende EK banken er svakt kapitalisert før emisjon med CET 1 på 8.7% - ECB krever naturlig nok mer Les: Vi er godt kapitalisert i egne øyne. men ECB krever mer (naturlig nok). CET 1 er 11.2% på overgangsregler men kun 8.3% på full innfasing. Glemte visst å nevne det. 7
Rom for å kutte boligrenten 60-70bps i 2015 uten marginfall ettersom NIBOR faller fra 1.7% høsten 2014 til under 1.0% sommeren 2015. Rente og margin nye boliglån* og NIBOR *Snittrente på nye boliglån over NOK 1m og innenfor 60% av taktst. 20 største banker i Norge 4.00-30bps fra mai 2016? 3.60 3.20 2.80 Rente nye boliglån 2.40 2.00 NIBOR 1.60 1.20 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 Jan 8 Brutto margin = Lånerente - NIBOR Apr Jul 11 Oct Jan Apr Jul 12 Oct Jan Apr Jul 13 Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Oct Jan Apr Jul 15 Oct Source: SpareBank 1 Markets, EcoWin
Markedet venter at NIBOR faller fra dagens 1.5% til 0.95% sommeren 2015 og forblir lave gjennom 2016 => boligrentene skal videre ned, flere kutt venter 9
Nyttårsrallyet i bank er allerede reversert nordiske og europeiske banker -5 til -6% i uken som gikk Kursendring forrige uke* *Inkl evt utbytte, tegningsretter etc -1.5-2.0-2.5-3.0-3.5-4.0-4.5-5.0-5.5-6.0 w2 2015 DNB [c.o.p 1 obs] Svensk bank [c.o.p 1 obs] Regional sparebank [c.o.p 1 obs] Europeisk bank [c.o.p 1 obs] Source: SB1M 10
DNB og MING -5%, SR og SVEG -2.5% mens NONG flatere på -1% Kursendring norske banker forrige uke* *Inkl evt utbytte, tegningsretter etc -1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5 % -3.0-3.5-4.0-4.5-5.0-5.5 w2 2015 DNB [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 SMN ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 NORD-NORGE ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 SR BANK ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANKEN VEST ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] Source: SB1M 11
DNB allerede ned 10% i 2015, etterfulgt av europeisk bank på emisjonsfrykt Totalavkastning* hittil i 2015 Kvartalsrapporter 4Q14 Bank Ticker *Justert for eventuelle utbytter, splitter og tegningsretter 2% 0% 0% 0% -2% -3% -4% -4% -6% -6% -8% -10% -9% OSEBX Lokale sparebanker Regionale sparebanker Svenske banker Europeisk bank Regionale sparebanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG. Lokale sparebanker: RING, SBVG, SOAG, TOTG, HELG, SPOG, SADG, NTSG. Våre delindekser for de regionale og lokale bankene er likevektet. 12 DNB BN Bank Nordea Møre SEB Swedbank Gjensidige Ringerike Handelsbanken DNB SMN SNN SR-Bank Vest Hedmark Østfold-Akershus Buskerud-Vestfold Helgeland Nøtterøy-Tønsberg Sandnes Øst Storebrand Toten Sør Hedmark 12.01.2015 BNB NDA MORG SEB SWED GJF RING SHB DNB MING NONG SRBANK SVEG SBHE SOAG SBVG HELG NTSG SADG SPOG STB TOTG SOR SBHE Dato 28-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 29-Jan 03-Feb 04-Feb 04-Feb 04-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 06-Feb 06-Feb 10-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 16-Feb
Få i pluss i 2015 (lokale banker i overvekt), mange i minus Totalavkastning finansinstitusjoner i 2015* *Justert for eventuelle utbytte, splitter, emisjoner og tegningsretter Øst - SPOG 4% Østfold-Akershus - SOAG 4% Buskerud-Vestfold - SBVG 2% Gjensidige - GJF 3% Toten - TOTG 2% Nøtterøy - NTSG 2% Møre - MORG 1% Oslo Børs - OSEBX 0% Sør - SOR 0% Helgeland - HELG 0% Sandnes - SADG 0% EK-bevis index - OSEEX -2% Handelsbanken - SHB -3% Nordea - NDA -3% Vest - SVEG -3% SR-BANK - SRBANK -3% SNN - NONG -4% SEB - SEB -5% Ringerike - RING -5% Swedbank - SWED -5% Storebrand - STB -5% SMN - MING DNB - DNB -7% -9% -10% 13-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 12.01.2015 6%
DNB handler under trading intervallet etter kursfall på 5% i forrige uke historisk intervall P/E 8.6 10X P/E* - Nordic and European banks** *Consensus EPS next 12 months forward. **Swedish banks = SHB, NDA, SEB & SWED. Svensk bank tilbake til historisk høye nivåer (P/E 12.5X) 13 12 Swedish banks 11 10 9 DNB 8 DNB har handlet mellom P/E 8.6X og 10X siste halvannet året. 7 6 5-5 Rabatten er lavere enn normalt, nå ca 30% DNB discount to Swedish banks -15-25 -35 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 14
DNB faller relativt til svenske banker på nytt fall i oljeprisen Brent $5 lavere til under $50 i uken som gikk DNB relative to Swedish banks* and oil price** 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12-14 -16-18 Jan Mar May 15 DNB relative to Swedish banks Oil price Jul 12 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 13 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 14 123 118 113 108 103 98 93 88 83 78 73 68 63 58 53 48 USD/Barrel *31.12.2011 = 0. ** Brent, USD Sep Nov Jan 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Securities, EcoWin
DNB svakere enn både sparebanker og svensk bank 16
Verdsettelsen av DNB under et stigende P/B bånd over tid positiv reprising over tid, som for svenske banker på økte utbytter i perioden 2011-2014 Price/Tangible Book* - Nordic banks *Ex goodwill 1.9 1.8 1.7 Swedish banks 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 DNB 1.1 1.0 12 Dec, 2013 CCB at 1.0% 0.9 0.8 0.7 Jan Apr Jul 12 Oct Jan Apr Jul 13 Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Oct Jan 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 17
Svensk bank priset høyt på sterk utbyttekapasitet og mindre oljeeksponering sparebankene fortsatt under boken, sammen med europeiske banker Pris/Bok* - Nordiske og europeiske banker *eks immaterielle eiendeler. Regionale sparebanker SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG 2.00 Svensk bank 1.75 Svensk bank P/B 1.70 1.50 DNB 1.25 1.00 Regionale sparebanker 0.75 Europeisk bank 0.50 0.25 0.00 Jan May Sep 09 Jan May Sep 10 Jan May Sep 11 Jan May Sep 12 Jan May Sep 13 Jan May Sep 14 Jan May Sep 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 18 Regionale sparebanker priset som europeisk bank
Rabatten i regionbankene lavere etter kursfall i DNB relativt sett premium i MING og delvis NONG, oljerabatt i SRBANK Pris/Bok - Sparebanker og DNB * Inkludert utbytte ved årsslutt. Konsern. 1.4 1.3 DNB 1.2 1.1 1.0 MING 0.9 NONG SRBANK 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 % premie/rabatt 10 Premie/rabatt vs DNB målt ved P/B -10 MING NONG -30 SRBANK -50 Apr Jul Oct 10 Jan Apr Jul 11 Oct Jan Apr Jul 12 Oct Jan Apr Jul 13 Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Oct Jan Apr 15 Jul Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 19
Regionale sparebanker på P/B 0.87 på 2014 boken bedring i prisingen for de lokale også på P/B 0.74 (2014), rabatten kraftig inn i 2014 Pris/Bok* - Regionale og lokale sparebanker * Kurs / Bokført egenkapital pr bevis. 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 Regionale 1.00 0.75 0.50 Lokale sparebanker 0.25 10-5 -20-35 Rabatt 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 20
Norge: Lavere kredittvekst for husholdningene i november (6.3%, -0.2% fra okt) lavere boligrenter i 2015 (ca -0.8%) tilsier økt vekst, men økonomisk usikkerhet negativ impuls 21
CDS: Kredittspreadene ut i desember og januar for DNB og svensk bank CDS Nordic banks - Senior bond, 5yrs Basis points 135 Last month 125 115 105 95 85 75 DANSKE 65 SWED 55 NDA DNB SEB SHB 45 35 Jan Mar May Jul 2013 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2014 Sep Nov Jan Mar May 2015 Source: Reuters EcoWin 22 CDS = Pris på konkursbeskyttelse for senior lån i basispunkter. Merk at det kan være store avvik mellom CDS markedet og cash-markedet
Kun mindre bevegelser for fondsobligasjoner i ansvarlige lån i 2015 Swap-spread kapitalstruktur*, bps over NIBOR *5 års løpetid. OMF og Senior Nordea Norge. Ansvarlig lån og fondsobligasjon regionbank (ny type) 600 600 500 500 400 400 Fondsobligasjon ny type 300 200 Ansvarlig lån ny type 100 300 200 100 Senior OMF 0 0 11 12 13 14 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets Credit Research 23
Betydelig inngang siste året for fondsobligasjoner i 2014, selv etter spreadutgang i 4Q Fondsobligasjoner i Norge - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type 800 700 Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse 600 Dato Bank Gammel type fondsobligasjoner teller 100% i 2013, 80% i 2014 og deretter 10%-poeng årlig utfasing. 21-Jan-14 Tysnes Spb 20m 450 22-Jan-14 Sandnes Spb 300m 375 25-Feb-14 BN Bank ASA 400m 375 05-Mar-14 Eika Boligkreditt AS 200m 350 Sannsynlig at utstedelser i 2009/10 kjøpes tilbake 18-Mar-14 Bank 1 Oslo Akershus AS 200m 350 35m 350 27-May-14 Verd Boligkreditt AS 500 400 300 200 100 0 Ki l de: SpareBank 1 Ma rkets jan/ 04 Gammel type 24 mai/ 05 okt/ 06 Gammel type med reg. call feb/ 08 Volum, NOK Spread (bps) jul/ 09 Ny konvertibel med reg. call nov/ 10 apr/ 12 Ny type med reg. call aug/ 13 des/ 14 13-Jun-14 Soknedal Spb 20m 400 18-Jun-14 Fana Spb 200m 325 25-Jun-14 Spb 1 Boligkreditt AS 350m 310 27-Jun-14 Hjelmeland Spb 50m 380 03-Jul-14 Eika Gruppen AS 100m 350 27-Jun-14 Eiendomskreditt AS 35m 330 09-Jul-14 Storebrand Bank ASA 75m 330 10-Jul-14 Lillestrøm Spb 60m 350 21-Aug-14 Strømmen Spb 50m 350 03-Sep-14 03-Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA Grong Spb 50m 35m 370 335 26-Sep-14 Spb Øst 150m 280 30-Sep-14 Spb 1 Nøtterøy-Tønsberg 50m 300 14-Oct-14 Aurksog SB 120m 300 20-Oct-14 Totens Spb 130m 290 SB1 BV 100m 290 23-Oct-14 Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang 10-Dec-14 Bank 1 OA 200m 305 16-Dec-14 Rørosbanken 50m 305 19-Dec-14 Høland og Setskog Spb 50m 330 12.01.2015
Ansvarlige lån (LT II) spreadene inn i 2014, men noe ut siste måneden. Bank 1 OA på +165bps 700 Ansvarlige lån (LT II) - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type Ki l de: SpareBank 1 Ma rkets Protector Forsikring Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse 600 500 400 SRBANK 300 200 100 0 mai/ 05 Gammel type 25 okt/ 06 feb/ 08 jul/ 09 Gammel type med reg. call nov/ 10 apr/ 12 Ny type med reg. call aug/ 13 des/ 14 mai/ 16 Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang Dato Bank Volum, NOK Spread (bps) 05-Feb-14 Spb Sogn og Fjordane 12-Feb-14 Aurskog Spb 07-Mar-14 Spb 1 Boligkreditt AS 19-Mar-14 Drangedal og Tørdal Spb 26-Mar-14 Eika Gruppen AS 24-Apr-14 Grong Spb 300m 180 85m 185 1600m 225 30m 215 125m 230 35m 205 15-May-14 Spb Bien 40m 205 30-May-14 Åfjord Spb 30m 200 27-May-14 Landkreditt Bank AS 75m 160 27-May-14 Verd Boligkreditt AS 45m 190 12-Jun-14 Spb 1 Nord-Norge 350m 150 04-Jun-14 Haugesund Spb 125m 170 12-Jun-14 Spb 1 Ringerike Hadeland 200m 155 17-Jun-14 Gjensidige Bank ASA 250m 155 17-Jun-14 Hjartdal og Gransherad Spb 25m 200 25-Jun-14 27-Jun-14 Rørosbanken Røros Spb Spb Vest 60m 500m 170 150 27-Jun-14 Spb 1 Gudbrandsdal 60m 190 25-Jun-14 Sunndal Spb 50m 180 09-Jul-14 Storebrand Bank ASA 125m 160 03-Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA 150m 195 15-Sep-14 Melhus Spb 02-Oct-14 Gjensidige Forsikring 02-Oct-14 80m 160 1.2mrd 150 Surnadal Spb 50m 165 03-Oct-14 Indre Sogn Spb 50m 170 20-Oct-14 Totens Spb 130m 145 05-Nov-14 Eiendomskreditt 125m 185 07-Nov-14 Bamble SB 30m 180 11-Nov-14 SB 1 Nordvest 150m 175 11-Nov-14 Jernbanepersonalets SB 50m 180 08-Dec-14 SB Sogn og Fjordane m 155 10-Dec-14 Bank 1 OA 200m 165 16-Dec-14 Høland og Setskog SB 200m 195 16-Dec-14 SB 1 Lom og Skjåk 25m 205
Verdsettelse enkeltbanker - fortsatt oppside fra moderate nivåer sparebankene i intervall fra P/B 0.60 til 0.99. Pris/Bok* vs egenkapitalavkastning 2015E - Norske banker *P/B basert på dagens kurser og estimert bokført egenkapital pr 31.12.2014. 2.00 Pris/Bok (2014 bok) 15% ROE 2015E 15% 12% 1.50 11.2 % 10.0 % 9.4 % 12% 11.3 % 10.2 % 9.9 % 9.2 % 8.2 % 8.0 % 8.1 % 8.2 % 8.2 % 2.03 1.96 10% 8.8 % 8.3 % 6.6 % 1.67 0.00 8% 6% 1.33 0.50 16% 14% 13% 1.00 18% 1.06 1.00 0.92 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.85 0.83 0.81 4% 0.74 0.71 0.64 0.62 0.62 0.59 2% 0% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 26 12.01.2015
P/E blir mer interessant om vi ser den opp mot potensielle tap på utlån bankene handler 7-9X gitt normaliserte tap på 0.25%. P/E 2015E vs tap på utlån- Norske banker* *Tap som % av utlån inkl Boligkreditt. EPS basert på 2015 estimater 25 1995-14 Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 20 MORG 2008/09 Regionale bankser taper ca 30bps SVEG SRBANK NONG P/E 2015E MING 15 DNB 10 2009 DNB taper 70bps 5 0 Normaliserte tap 0.0% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 27 0.2% Peak tap 0.4% Tap på utlån 0.6% 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.8% 1.0%
P/E: DNB og Sparebankene er billige på våre estimater for 2014 svensk bank handler 11-14X våre 2014E P/E basert på 2014 og 2015 estimater - Nordiske banker 14 P/E 15E 12 P/E 14E 10 8 6 13.2 11.7 11.7 4 10.8 9.7 9.6 9.4 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.2 7.7 7.6 7.5 6.9 2 0 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 28 12.01.2015
Verdsettelse og estimater Pris/Bok Core Tier I SR-Bank Midt-Norge Nord-Norge Møre Vest Øst Sandnes Toten Helgeland Sør Buskerud-Vest Østf-Akershus Nøtterøy Ringerike ROE Utbytte Direkteavkastning* P/E EPS Ticker Kurs (eks hybrid) Bok 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG SPOG SADG TOTG HELG SOR SBVG SOAG NTSG RING 50.8 54.3 38.4 219 49 53 104 79 53.7 198 52 118 99 148 11.3 % 11.2 % 13.2 % 12.4 % 11.4 % 13.5 % 12.3 % 12.6 % 13.2 % 12.9 % 14.2 % 15.7 % 13.1 % 17.8 % 61.2 61.4 45.3 246 55 53 176 106 86 216 73 184 160 182 0.92 0.98 0.95 0.96 0.95 1.12 0.62 0.82 0.67 1.09 0.77 0.71 0.69 0.86 0.83 0.88 0.85 0.89 0.89 1.00 0.59 0.74 0.62 0.92 0.71 0.64 0.62 0.81 13.5 % 13.2 % 12.6 % 10.9 % 11.7 % 12.0 % 8.5 % 10.8 % 10.2 % 10.0 % 11.4 % 10.7 % 11.8 % 9.5 % 13.7 % 14.2 % 14.4 % 12.4 % 13.7 % 16.2 % 7.5 % 13.4 % 9.9 % 12.4 % 13.5 % 12.1 % 14.1 % 10.6 % 9.9 % 11.3 % 10.2 % 9.2 % 10.0 % 9.4 % 6.6 % 8.2 % 8.0 % 8.2 % 8.3 % 8.2 % 8.8 % 8.1 % 2.00 2.20 2.10 13.00 4.00 4.50 3.00 3.00 2.00 11.00 2.60 4.00 4.75 9.50 2.00 2.50 2.25 12.00 3.25 3.25 4.00 2.75 2.10 11.00 2.75 4.75 4.00 8.50 3.9 % 4.1 % 5.5 % 5.9 % 8.2 % 8.5 % 2.9 % 3.8 % 3.7 % 5.6 % 5.0 % 3.4 % 4.8 % 6.4 % 3.9 % 4.6 % 5.9 % 5.5 % 6.6 % 6.1 % 3.9 % 3.5 % 3.9 % 5.6 % 5.3 % 4.0 % 4.0 % 5.8 % 6.5 6.6 6.3 7.5 6.4 6.0 8.0 5.8 6.6 7.7 5.5 5.6 4.7 7.6 8.2 7.6 8.2 9.4 8.4 9.6 8.6 8.7 7.7 10.8 8.6 7.5 6.9 9.7 7.8 8.3 6.1 29.3 7.6 8.9 12.9 13.6 8.1 25.7 9.5 21.1 21.1 19.4 6.2 7.1 4.7 23.2 5.8 5.5 12.0 9.0 7.0 18.3 6.0 15.6 14.4 15.2 DNB 100.4 12.6 % 95 1.19 1.06 13.0 % 14.0 % 11.2 % 4.00 4.50 4.0 % 4.7 % 7.8 8.8 12.9 11.4 0.87 0.95 0.82 0.78 0.87 0.74 11.2 % 12.4 % 10.6 % 12.7 % 13.7 % 12.2 % 8.9 % 10.1 % 8.2 % 5.0 % 5.5 % 4.9 % 4.9 % 5.3 % 4.7 % 6.5 6.6 6.0 8.6 8.4 8.6 Gjennomsnitt* Regionbanker Lokalbanker 13.0 % 11.9 % 13.2 % Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets * Gjennomsnitt eks DNB. Regionbanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, MORG, SVEG. Resten defineres som lokale 29 12.01.2015
Anbefalinger og kursmål Navn DNB Bank Ticker DNB SR-Bank SMN SNN Møre Vest SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG 51 54 38 219 49 67 66 47 245 60 32% 22% 22% 12% 22% Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp 0.83 0.88 0.85 0.89 0.89 8.2 7.6 8.2 9.4 8.4 3.9 % 4.1 % 5.5 % 5.9 % 8.2 % 10.9 9.2 10.1 10.6 10.3 1.09 1.07 1.04 1.00 1.08 11.3 % 11.2 % 13.2 % 12.4 % 11.4 % Buskerud-Vestfold Sandnes Toten Helgeland Østfold-Akershus Ringerike Nøtterøy Øst SBVG SADG TOTG HELG SOAG RING NTSG SPOG 52 104 79 55 118 148 99 53 56 110 78 57 135 165 108 55 8% 6% -1% 4% 14% 12% 9% 3% Kjøp Nøytral Nøytral Nøytral Kjøp Kjøp Nøytral Kjøp 0.71 0.59 0.74 0.62 0.64 0.81 0.62 1.00 8.6 8.6 8.7 7.7 7.5 9.7 6.9 9.6 5.0 % 2.9 % 3.8 % 3.7 % 3.4 % 6.4 % 4.8 % 8.5 % 9.3 9.2 8.7 8.1 8.6 10.9 7.5 10.0 0.76 0.62 0.73 0.66 0.73 0.91 0.68 1.03 14.2 % 12.3 % 12.6 % 13.2 % 15.7 % 17.8 % 13.1 % 13.5 % 0.87 0.74 8.4 8.4 5.5 % 4.8 % 10.2 9.0 1.06 0.77 11.9 % 13.3 % Regionbanker Lokalbanker Dagens Kursmål PotensialeAnbefaling kurs 100 137 36% Kjøp 22% 7% Prising på dagens kurs* P/B 14 P/E 14E Yield 14E 1.06 8.8 4.0 % Prising på kursmål ** P/E 14E P/B 14E 12.1 1.45 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets * Verdsettelse basert på dagens kurs og våre estimater ** Verdsettelse basert på kursmål og våre estimater *** CET I = Ren kjernekapitaldekning (Tier I eks fondsobligasjoner) 30 12.01.2015 CET I*** % 12.6 %
Økt handel i sparebanker de to siste årene 2014 slo 2013 på målstreken, høyest omsetning i SRBANK Omsetning sparebanker januar - desember 2014 Sparebanker - Omsetning i NOK mill* Bevis og aksjer *Per år. Egenkapitalbevis og aksjer (SRBANK) 10 000 9 328 9 486 13 14 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 702 4 223 3 938 4 000 3 876 3 555 2 788 3 000 2 300 2 000 1 000 0 Kilde: Oslo Børs 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 SR-BANK SMN SNN Helgeland Møre Vest Sandnes Øst Ringerike Toten Østfold-Akershus Buskerud-Vestfold Melhus Skue Sparebank Nøtterøy Aurskog Klepp Sør Hol Indre sogn Sum SRBANK MING NONG HELG MORG SVEG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG SBVG MELG SKUE NTSG AURG KLEG SOR HOLG ISSG % 3 581 2 809 1 469 339 343 286 160 102 71 67 61 50 39 24 15 34 11 10 8 8 38% 30% 15% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SRBANK MING NONG HELG MORG SVEG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG SBVG MELG SKUE NTSG AURG KLEG SOR HOLG ISSG 2 803 3 658 1 357 259 327 303 89 173 95 45 37 33 13 18 34 27 14 32 3 5 9 486 100% Sum 9 325 Kilde: Oslo Børs 31 Omsetning hele 2013 Ticker NOK mill NOK mill
Motsyklisk buffer på 1.0% gir krav for CET 1 på 13.5 14% i juli 2016 høy kredittvekst kan imidlertid føre til opprevidering av motsyklisk, men neppe mer enn 50bps Minstekrav og bufferkrav 16% 14% *Basel II, overgangsregler. SIFI banker Dagens nivå regionale sparebanker Margin 0.5-1.0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 32 Kombinerte bufferkrav inkl motsyklisk estimat 1% 8.5% Vi tror bankene vil holde en betryggende margin mot minimums-kravene for å redusere sannsynligheten for kupongstopp på fondsobligasjoner. Betryggende margin 50-100bps Kombinerte bufferkrav: 7.5% +1.0% = 8.5% Krav ren kjernekapital juli 2016 13.5-14.0 % SIFI banker Minstekrav EK 4.5% 01/01/1900
Kapitalstruktur norske og svenske banker Basel 2 overgangsregler Sammensetning av bankenes kapitaldekning* *Pr 3Q14 inkl 50% av overskudd YTD. Basert på Overgangsregler - Basel I gulv (80%) DNB 12.6 % Nordea Norge 0.3 % 12.2 % 1.5 % BN Bank DNB Nordea 1.1 % 15.2 % Hedmark 1.5 % 13.6 % 13.2 % 1.1 % Sogn og Fjordane 13.2 % 1.3 % 12.9 % Møre 3.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Nord-Norge Sør 2.3 % 1.3 % 12.4 % 1.4 % Vest 11.4 % 1.4 % SR-BANK 11.3 % 1.7 % Midt-Norge 11.2 % CET 1 0.7 % 2.3 % 1.2 % Tier 1 2.0 % 2.3 % 1.8 % Ringerike 0.00.6 %% 16.9 % Østfold-Akershus 0.0 % 15.7 % Buskerud-Vestfold 1.6 % 0.0 % 14.2 % Øst 1.3 % 0.5 % 13.5 % Helgeland 13.2 % Nøtterøy 13.1 % Bank 1 OA 13.0 % Toten 2.0 % 1.2 % 2% 4% 6% 1.4 % 0.00.8 % % 4.1 % 12.3 % 0% Lokale sparebanker 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.0 % 12.6 % Sandnes Regionale sparebanker Tier 2 2.7 % 17.8 % Telemark 33 2.0 % 2.8 % 8% 10% 12% 14% 0.2 % 2.1 % 16% 18% 20%
Kapitalisering: Styrket og likere etter 2008 Utvikling i ren kjernekapitaldekning* - Norske banker *CET I, eks fondsobligasjoner. Inkludert 50% av overskudd. Regionbanker SRBANK, MING, NONG 14% 1Q09: 80% 1Q07: RWA gulv 95% av Basel I 12% Lokale banker DNB 1Q08: 90% Region banker 10% 8% Emisjoner 2009/2010: DNB SRBANK MING SVEG Emisjon SPOG 2011: 6% Emisjoner 2012: SRBANK MING Emisjoner 2013: MORG NONG 2013 2014 NONG 4% 34 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markes
Overføringer til Boligkreditt flater ut på 50% av boliglån? Tilsynet følger opp grad av overføringer på selskapsbasis gjennom Pillar 2 Andel boliglån overført til Boligkredittforetak* 100% *Pr. 3Q14 For DNB er det andel boliglån finansiert med OMF 93% Overført pr siste kvartal 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% DNB har overført 86% av boliglån til Boligkreditt og utstedt OMF tilsvarende 65%. Overført 30.09.2011 Overført % av totale utlån 74% 68% 64% 52% 52% 53% 51% 49% 45% 45% 41% 41% 41% 40% 39% 35% 30% 37% 37% 36% 30% 28% 20% 10% 0% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 35
Økte marginer på boliglån i Sverige reduserer nasjonale forskjeller kapitalkravene etterhvert også likere (25% gulv på risikovekter boliglån) Bruttomargin på nye boliglån - Sverige og Norge* *Margin før fundingkostnad i %. Flytende rente begge land (Sverige 3 måneder) 2.4 Norge 2.1 Sverige 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 3Q14 0.6 0.3 0.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 36
Uro i Hellas, men ikke smitte til Italia og Spania enda 37
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Factors that could cause a company s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this Recommendation are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. 41