Forecast Methodology September 2015 LightCounting Market Research Notes Vladimir Market Kozlov Forecast Methodology, September, September, 2015 2015 1
Summary In summary, the key assump=on of our forecast is that the growth rate of network bandwidth is correlated with growth in network traffic. Data on Internet traffic and the traffic inside datacenters (shown in slides 10-11) indicates that while the traffic con=nues to grow very quickly, the annual growth rate is slowing down. This trend is used as a key metric for calcula=ng the expected volume of DWDM ports and Ethernet transceivers in 2016-2020. Our forecast for the Ethernet transceiver market accounts for all Ethernet op=cal transceivers used in telecom, enterprise and datacenter applica=ons (slide 15). Slides 12-15 illustrate the disrup=ve effect of mega datacenters on the Ethernet transceiver market in 2010-2014. Our key forecast assump=on for the Ethernet market in 2016-2020 is shown as the blue line on slide 14. It projects that the annual growth rate of the combined bandwidth of Ethernet ports will decline gradually. It is very likely that we will see fluctua=ons in the actual annual growth rate in the next few years. Ini=al deployments of 100GbE may lead to another bump in the curve, similar to the peaks in 2010 and 2014, related to massive ini=al deployments of 10GbE and 40GbE, respec=vely. On the other hand, future economic downturns may lead to drops in the growth rate. Our forecast should average out and smooth over these fluctua=ons. This forecast model worked well in the past for established markets like DWDM (slides 6-7). However, it does not fully account for disrup=ons like op=cs usage in mega datacenters (slides 12-13). We look at the mega datacenter op=cs market as fairly well established by now, considering that it started back in 2007 with the ini=al deployments of 10GbE op=cs by Google, which were interrupted by the financial crisis of 2008-2009. 2
Challenges to Forecasting Limited historical data on product sales Uncertainty about the future demand Diverging expert opinions A lot of hype in the media Economic cycles Market disruptions 3
Key question: how fast will the market grow? Forecast example? real market data 4
LightCounting s Approach Data Mining and Validation Collecting data from more than 20 optical components and module vendors since 2004 Cross-checking shipments of lasers, laser drivers and modulators with transponders, linecards or ports Model Development Correlating sales of optical components and network bandwidth to Internet traffic growth Model Validation Critical reviews of previous forecast accuracy 5
Growth rate of DWDM network bandwidth, calculated from port shipments 60% 50% CWDM / DWDM Internet Traffic Growth rate (%) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6
Critical Review: Established Products 2.5G and 10G DWDM ports LightCoun3ng s March 2010 Forecast Actual data 600,000 2.5 G 10 G 600,000 2.5 G 10 G 500,000 500,000 400,000 400,000 300,000 300,000 200,000 200,000 100,000 100,000-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 7
Critical Review: New Products 40G and 100G DWDM ports 8
August 2015 Forecast for 100/400G 300,000 DWDM ports by application 250,000 200,000 Mega- DCI Telecom 150,000 100,000 50,000-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 9
Growth Rates in Aggregated Bandwidth 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% Mega- DCI Telecom 20% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 10
Latest data on Internet traffic growth LINX Public Exchange Traffic 50% Growth Rate 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 11
Traffic growth rate at Google An increase of 50X over the period shown is a CAGR of 75%. Date Growth Rate Jul- 08 70% Jun- 09 47% May- 10 44% Apr- 11 39% Mar- 12 140% Feb- 13 75% Dec- 13 57% Nov- 14 52% 12
1GbE and 10GbE Transceiver shipments LightCoun3ng s March 2010 Forecast Actual data 30,000,000 1 GbE 10 GbE 30,000,000 1 GbE 10 GbE 25,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 13
40GbE and 100GbE Transceiver Shipments LightCoun3ng s March 2010 Forecast Actual data 2,000,000 40 GbE 100 GbE 2,000,000 40 GbE 100 GbE 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 500,000 500,000-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 14
Growth rate in aggregated bandwidth of Ethernet ports 50% Ethernet Internet Traffic 40% Growth rate (%) 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 15
Our latest Ethernet forecast Revenues - total $5,000 DC Mega DC Enterprise Telecom $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 16