Klimaendringer: en utfordring som påvirker oss alle av Trygve Meyer, ESG Spesialist, SKAGEN Fondene
Historical origin Modern era 2018 En global reise fra etiske til bærekraftige investeringer Wider exclusions in focus Global Investor focus on climate change risks US SIF and Ceres formed Sustainable Accounting Board formed 1990s 2000s UN Global Compact and PRI formed 2010s Integration in focus Methodists avoid gambling, tobacco & other sin stocks Quakers ban slave trading Focus civil liberties and Vietnam war Focus on South Africa and divestment 1970s 1980s Growing environmental concerns 1700 1758 1960s Source: SKAGEN, May 2018 - for illustrative and discussion purposes only. 2
2018 Interessen blant investorene er formidabel Assets in trillion USD 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Number of signatories 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 apr.06 apr.07 apr.08 apr.09 apr.10 apr.11 apr.12 apr.13 apr.14 apr.15 apr.16 apr.17 AO AUM ($ US trillion) Assets under management (US$ trillion) Number of AOs Number of Signatories 0 Source: UN PRI as of end April 2017 for illustrative and discussion purposes only. 3
2018 For mange er utgangspunktet fortsatt omdømmerisiko.. Source: SKAGEN, May 2018 - for illustrative and discussion purposes only. 4
MEN ER KLIMAENDRINGER OMDØMME??? 5
2018 Manglende data endrer ikke det store bildet.. 6
2018 Store summer har forlatt olje og kull de senere år 7
2017 Verdensbanken vil slutte å finansiere olje og gass i 2019 8
2017 "Oljeselskapene må betale for klimaendringer og det er mulig å kalkulere hvor mye" Ledende forskere i avisen the Guardian 9
2017 San Fransisco, Oakland og New York saksøker fem store oljeselskaper for skader i forbindelse med stigende havnivå 10
2018 Det finnes ulike tilnærminger for å ta inn over seg dette bildet.. Aktiv forvaltning ESG Bottom up: Integrering av ESG i fundamentalanalyse - vurdering av risiko og muligheter i hvert selskap. ESG Integrasjon ESG Passiv forvaltning Top down: Utgangspunktet er ESG liste som gir eksklusjoner fra fondet. Source: SKAGEN, November 2017 - for illustrative and discussion purposes only. 11
2018 SKAGEN er en aktiv forvalter som plukker enkeltinvesteringer.. SKAGENs nåværende retningslinjer for bærekraft sier:....skagen har som mål å investere ansvarlig, fordi selskap som integrerer bærekraft i sin forretningsstrategi på sikt har en tendens til å gjøre det bedre enn sine konkurrenter over tid. Ved å integrere hensyn til miljø-, samfunns- og selskapsstyring (ESG) i vår investeringsprosess kan vi fatte mer kvalifiserte investeringsbeslutninger og ha bedre oppfølging og overvåking. Det gis oss også et bredere bilde av risiko og muligheter i det individuelle investeringstilfellet. Det er også et punkt som er viktig hva gjelder klimaendringer SKAGEN vil unngå: Selskaper med stor aktivitet i områder som kan bli rammet av betydelige og uforutsette krav knyttet til helseskader og miljøødeleggelser 12
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2018 Ett selskap, tre ulike tilnærmingsmåter Ekskludert Til observasjon Investert 14
SKAGEN input Need for clear communication of go green go cheaper strategy Detailed financial implications of green shift Importance of ESG strategy among Nordic investors CMS response Reformulated corporate communication collateral Contact initiated with key institutional investors Continued publications of updates and ambitions Implications Top 10 Greenest Companies in USA and #1 in Michigan in Newsweek's annual rankings. Highest rank among U.S. peers (MSCI ESG & Sustainalytics) Stock price relative to peers Source: SKAGEN, September 2017 - for illustrative and discussion purposes only. 15
2040 CMS Energy vil slutte med kull utslipp ned 80 prosent 16
MSCI ESG upgrade: Top quartile in Corporate Governance Water usage Efficient land usage Areas for further improvement Carbon emissions Renewables transition Waste emissions Human capital development Source: SKAGEN, September 2017 - for illustrative and discussion purposes only. 17
CAR (monthly size-adjusted returns) 2015 En gjennomgang av aktivt eierskap viser at det virker.. 8% 6% 4% ES successful CG successful The Dimson, Karakas and Li study from 2015 examined 2152 engagements (1252 ES and 900 G-based) for 613 U.S. public firms between 1999 and 2009. The success rate for engagements was 18%, and it took 2 3 engagements before success could be recorded. The elapsed time to success averaged one-and-a-half years. 2% 0% -2% ES unsuccessful CG unsuccessful 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Event window (in months) Successful engagements generate cumulative abnormal returns for both ES and G. The three professors did not find any market reaction to unsuccessful engagements. The abnormal return patterns and magnitudes are similar for the subsamples of CG and ES engagements. 18 Source: Dimson, Karakas and Li study on Active Ownership in Review of Financial Studies (RFS), Volume 28, Issue 12, pp. 3225-3268, 2015 (2015)
2018 SKAGEN jobber aktivt med bærekraft og klima.. Source: SKAGEN, September 2017 - for illustrative and discussion purposes only. 19
2018 SKAGEN bygger det helt inn i verdsettelsesmodellene.. Sales growth EBITDA margin EBITA margin Capex/Sales NWC Chg % WACC 20 Source:SKAGEN research, 2017.
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22 TUSEN TAKK FOR MEG
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