Ukerapport 18.08.2015 Ansvarlig: Paal Kolberg +47 24 14 74 65 pk@sb1markets.no
Disclaimer IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: This note (the 'Note') must be seen as marketing material and not as an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 2007 paragraph 3-10 and the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation 2007/06/29 no. 876. The Note is for clients only, not for publication, and has been prepared for information purposes only by SpareBank 1 Markets AS, an investment firm organized under the laws of Norway. The Note shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. Please note that this comment is not an individual investment advice. If you would like to receive investment advice suitable for you, please contact your broker at SpareBank 1 Markets AS. SpareBank 1 Markets AS Olav Vs gate 5 0161 Oslo + 47 24 14 74 00 www.sb1markets.no
Makrokalender Date Time Region Event Actual Forecast Previous Mon 01:50 Japan Prelim GDP q/q -0.4% -0.5% 1.0% Aug 17 Japan Prelim GDP Price Index y/y 1.6% 2.2% 3.4% 11:00 Eurozone Trade Balance 19.3B 21.2B 14:30 USA Empire State Manufacturing Index 5.0 3,9 16:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index 62 60 22:00 USA TIC Long-Term Purchases 23.0B 93.0B Tue 14:30 USA Building Permits 1.21M 1.34M Aug 18 USA Housing Starts 1.20M 1.17M Wed 01:50 Japan Trade Balance -0.16T -0.25T Aug 19 06:30 Japan All Industries Activity m/m 0.4% -0.5% 10:00 Eurozone Current Account 19.2B 18.0B 14:30 USA CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3% USA Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2% 16:30 USA Crude Oil Inventories -1.7M 20:00 USA FOMC Meeting Minutes Thu Tentative Japan Monetary Policy Statement Aug 20 08:00 Eurozone German PPI m/m 0.0% -0.1% Tentative Japan BOJ Press Conference 08:45 USA FOMC Member Williams Speaks 14:30 USA Unemployment Claims 272K 274K 16:00 USA Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 7.2 5.6 USA Existing Home Sales 5.45M 5.49M USA CB Leading Index m/m 0.2% 0.6% 16:30 USA Natural Gas Storage 65B Fri 03:35 Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.1 51.2 Aug 21 03:45 China Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.1 47.8 09:30 Eurozone German Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.8 Eurozone German Flash Services PMI 53.8 10:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.4 Eurozone Flash Services PMI 54.0 15:45 USA Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.5 53.8 16:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence -7-7 3 18.08.2015 Kilde: Forexfactory og SpareBank 1 Markets Research
Oslo Børs- P/E OBX Kilde: Factset, SpareBank 1 Markets Research 4 18.08.2015
Oslo Børs- P/B OBX Kilde: Factset, SpareBank 1 Markets Research 5 18.08.2015
Egenkapitalavkastningen noe lavere og likere i andre kvartal driften solid, men lavere (eller negativt) bidrag fra finansielle investeringer (kurstap obligasjoner) 30% Norske banker - Egenkapitalavkastning* *Som rapportert, ingen justeringer. 2 kvartal rullerende observasjoner unntatt siste kvartal 2014 25% 20% 15% 10% DNB Regionale sparebanker Lokale sparebanker 5% 0% -5% -10% Regionale: SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG Lokale: SBVG, SOAG, RING, NTSG, HELG, SPOG, SADG Kilde: Kvartalsrapporter, SpareBank 1 Markets 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 6 18.08.2015
Lønnsomheten holder seg i snitt over 10% for regionbankene (11% populært) større spredning blant de lokale finansielle instrumenter hovedforklaring (SADG nedskriver eiendom) 16% 14% 12% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 13,4 % 13,3 % 13,2 % 13,1 % Rapportert egenkapitalavkastning 2Q15* 12,3 % 12,0 % 13,1 % *Ingen justeringer 11,1 %11,1 % 10,9 %10,9 % 10,5 % 13,7 % 13,7 % 12,4 % 11,6 % Rapportert ROE Median 10% 9,7 % 9,5 % 9,1 % 9,8 % 9,6 % 8% 8,2 % 7,3 % 6% 5,6 % 4% 2% 1,1 % 0% 7 18.08.2015
Rentenetto: Bankene merker presset på utlånsmarginer regionale banker med negativ utvikling fra 1Q, men oppside i innskuddsmarginer (lavere enn DNB s) 170 % 150 % Norske banker - Utvikling i rentenetto i kroner* *Inkludert provisjoner fra Boligkreditt, men ikke overskudd i Boligkreditt. 1Q05 = 0 2Q15 DNB Bank Endring rentenetto Q/Q År/År DNB 1 % 12 % 130 % 110 % Regionale sparebanker Regionale -1% 1% 90 % 70 % 50 % Lokale sparebanker Lokale 0% 0% 30 % 10 % -10 % 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 Kilde: Kvartalsrapporter, SpareBank 1 Markets 8 18.08.2015
Flat rentemargin i DNB svak negativ i sparebankene innskuddsmarginen må videre opp, ligger for lavt Netto rentemargin* - Norske banker *Rentenetto eks rentebidrag fra egenkapital. Inkl Boligkreditt. % av utlån og innskudd 1,70 % Tilpasning til Basel II => reduserte kapitalkrav 1,45 % Finanskrise Høyere fundingkostnad og ventede tap Økte kapitalkrav DNB 1,20 % 0,95 % 2Q15 Snitt regionale og lokale sparebanker Kilde: Kvartalsrapporter, SpareBank 1 Markets Priskrig på boliglån. DNB jakter markedsandel 0,70 % 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 9 18.08.2015
Utlånsmargin i personmarked faller noe mindre i DNB og marginalt høyere nivå på innskudd 2,50 % 2,20 % 1,90 % 1,60 % 1,30 % 1,00 % 0,70 % 0,40 % 0,10 % -0,20 % -0,50 % -0,80 % Personmarked: Utlåns- og innskuddsmarginer* norske banker *Gjennomsnittlig kunderente relativt til 3m NIBOR. DNB ny statistikk (eks SMB) 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 Kilde: Kvartalsrapporter, SpareBank 1 Markets Utlånsmargin: DNB Regionbanker Blank Blank Innskuddsmargin: DNB Regionbanker 10 18.08.2015
Den rene kjernekapitaldekningen styrkes videre ikke så rart når kravet heves med 3.5% på kort tid (+2% per 2Q15 og 1.5% per 2Q16) 14% 12% 10% 8% Utvikling i ren kjernekapitaldekning* - Norske banker *CET I, eks fondsobligasjoner. Inkludert 50% av overskudd på kvartalsbasis. 1Q07: RWA gulv 95% av Basel I 1Q09: RWA gulv 80% av Basel I MORG NONG DNB MING SRBANK SVEG 6% 4% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markes 2014 2015 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 11 18.08.2015
Avvikling av bedriftsmarked i BN Bank løfter CET 1 i eierbankene over tid vi anslår konservativt at 25% av potensialet realiseres i 2016 BN Bank corporate run-off MING SRBANK NONG Comment BN Bank ownership 33 % 24 % 24 % MING largest owner Capitalisation pre BNB run off CET 1 2Q15A 12,5 % 12,3 % 13,4 % NONG strongest capital position CET 1 2Q16E 13,0 % 13,0 % 13,8 % Estimated CET 1 pre BNB run-off CET 1 4Q16E 13,5 % 13,3 % 14,0 % Min requirement 13.5% Capital release from BNB CET 1 impact if 100% of corp lending Potential increase CET 1 1,3 % 0,6 % 1,4 % in BN Bank is down-scaled Equity release,nok mill 1.170 720 840 Release of equity in ownerbanks when - per share 5,7 2,8 4,0 100% of corp lending run-off in BNB Share price 62 50 41 - capital release as % 9 % 6 % 10 % Source: SpareBank 1 Markets, company press releases 12 18.08.2015
Stabilt, men ikke fart: BNP i eurosonen vokste 0.3% i 2Q, annualisert vekst 1.2% konjunkturbarometrene indikerer BNP-vekst fremover på ca 1.5% pa 13 18.08.2015
Flat utvikling i CDS ene i august CDS = Pris på konkursbeskyttelse for senior lån i basispunkter. 14 Merk at det kan være store avvik mellom CDS markedet og cashmarkedet 18.08.2015
Direkteavkastning % Direkteavkastning Økende yield i norske banker fra lave utdelingsnivåer men avhengig av at kapitalkravene for 2016 ikke blir strengere enn nå (motsyklisk kan ikke stige) 9,0% 8,0% Direkteavkastning og utbyttegrad* *Utbytte / Overskudd. Regionbank = Snitt SRBANK, MING, NON, MORG & SVEG Svensk bank 15E Svensk bank 16E 7,0% Regionbank 17E Svensk bank 14A 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% Regionbank 14A Regionbank 16E Regionbank 15E DNB 16E 3,0% 2,0% DNB 15E DNB 14A Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 1,0% 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % Utbyttegrad 12 10 8 6 4 2 9,8 8,3 Regionbanker - Direkteavkastning og rentenivå* *SRBANK, MING, NONG, MORG, SVEG. Statsobligasjon 5år 6,5 8,3 8,5 8,8 8,0 6,0 7,1 6,7 6,8 7,2 8,4 5,2 4,6 5,7 Direkteavkastning Stat 5 år 4,8 6,1 4,2 4,3 - Stigende yield - Lavere renter 4,8 4,7 0 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16E 15 18.08.2015
Verdsettelse enkeltbanker - fortsatt oppside fra moderate nivåer sparebankene i intervall fra P/B 0.6 til 1.1 2,00 14 % 16 % Pris/Bok* vs egenkapitalavkastning 2015E - Norske banker *P/B basert på dagens kurser og estimert bokført egenkapital pr 31.12.2015. 13 % Pris/Bok (2015 bok) ROE 2015E 18% 16% 14% 1,50 1,00 2,09 2,08 2,04 11 % 11,2 % 1,59 8,2 % 10,3 % 8,2 % 10,7 % 9,1 % 9,6 % 8,3 % 8,3 % 9,0 % 9,2 % 8,6 % 8,6 % 7,1 % 6,3 % 12% 10% 8% 6% 0,50 1,23 1,05 0,96 0,94 0,93 4% 0,86 0,86 0,83 0,80 0,77 0,75 0,73 0,68 0,66 0,54 2% 0,00 0% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 16 18.08.2015
P/E: DNB og Sparebankene er fortsatt moderate på våre estimater for 2016 svensk bank handler 10-13X våre 2016E 16 P/E basert på 2015 og 2016 estimater - Nordiske banker 14 12 10 P/E 16E P/E 15E 8 6 4 12,5 12,3 11,7 11,7 11,0 10,3 10,2 9,9 9,4 9,3 9,3 8,9 8,8 8,4 8,4 8,3 8,3 8,0 7,7 2 0 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 17 18.08.2015
Kursmål og anbefalinger Aksje Anbf. TP Valuta Aksje Anbf. TP Valuta Aksje Anbf. TP Valuta Analytiker: Nils Christian Øyen og Odd Weidel Analytiker: Tore A. Tønseth Analytiker: Carl Oskar Thoen DNB Nøytral 142 NOK Marine Harvest Kjøp 120 NOK Kongsberg Automotive Kjøp 8,4 NOK Nordea Kjøp 122 SEK Bakkafrost Salg 230 NOK REC Silicon Salg 1,4 NOK Handelsbanken Kjøp 156 SEK Lerøy Seafood Group Kjøp 340 NOK Polaris Media Kjøp 27 NOK Swedbank Nøytral 208 SEK Grieg Seafood Kjøp 35 NOK Analytiker: Kjetil Haukås SEB Nøytral 106 SEK Salmar Kjøp 155 NOK Prosafe Salg 22 NOK Storebrand Salg 31 NOK Norway Royal Salmon Kjøp 90 NOK Deep Sea Supply Kjøp 3,5 NOK SpareBank 1 SR-Bank Kjøp 56 NOK Telenor Nøytral 185 NOK Siem Offshore Nøytral 1,8 NOK SpareBank 1 SMN Kjøp 75 NOK Ekornes Kjøp 120 NOK Havila Shipping Nøytral 8 NOK SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Kjøp 51 NOK Analytiker: Robert Andre Jensen Solstad Offshore Nøytral 28 NOK Sparebanken Møre Kjøp 260 NOK Atwood Oceanics Salg 18 USD DOF Nøytral 6 NOK Sparebanken Vest Kjøp 67 NOK Awilco Drilling Salg 40 NOK NAO Salg 6 USD Sparebank 1 Østfold Akershus Kjøp 150 NOK Diamond Offshore Salg 18 USD Farstad Shipping Nøytral 20 NOK Sandnes Sparebank Nøytral 90 NOK ENSCO Salg 20 USD Analytiker: Christopher Møllerløkken Totens Sparebank Nøytral 95 NOK Fred. Olsen Energy Salg 35 NOK Petroleum Geo-Services Salg 37 NOK Helgeland Sparebank Nøytral 61 NOK North Atlantic Drilling Nøytral 1,3 USD TGS-Nopec Geophysical Salg 155 NOK SpareBank 1 Buskerud-Vestfold Kjøp 60 NOK Noble Corp. Salg 11 USD CGGVeritas Salg 4 EUR SpareBank 1 Ringerike-Hadeland Kjøp 190 NOK Northern Offshore Nøytral 7,6 NOK Polarcus Salg 0,3 NOK SpareBank 1 Nøtterøy-Tønsberg Nøytral 115 NOK Ocean Rig Nøytral 5 USD Electromagnetic Geoservices Salg 1,5 NOK Sparebanken Øst Nøytral 55 NOK Odfjell Drilling Nøytral 7 NOK Dolphin Group Salg 0,5 NOK Bank Norwegian Kjøp 58 NOK Pacific Drilling Nøytral 3 USD Spectrum Salg 28 NOK Pareto Bank Kjøp 40 NOK Rowan Companies Salg 18 USD Aker Kjøp 193 NOK ya Bank Kjøp 70 NOK Seadrill Salg 65 NOK Subsea 7 Nøytral 70 NOK Bank 2 Kjøp 5,5 NOK Sevan Drilling Salg 8 NOK Aker Solutions Salg 30 NOK Gjensidige Kjøp 150 NOK Songa Offshore Salg 1 NOK Ocean Yield Nøytral 68 NOK Analytiker: Kristoffer Dahlberg Transocean Salg 10 USD Analytiker: Peder Nicolai Jarlsby Statoil Nøytral 140 NOK Analytiker: Lars-Daniel Westby Flex LNG Kjøp 11,3 NOK Det Norske Oljeselskap Nøytral 55 NOK Norwegian Air Shuttle Kjøp 400 NOK Hoegh LNG Kjøp 150 NOK Lundin Petroleum Salg 110 SEK Kongsberg Gruppen Kjøp 190 NOK Aurora LPG Kjøp 83 NOK DNO International Kjøp 20 NOK Orkla Salg 51 NOK Avance Kjøp 160 NOK Panoro Energy Kjøp 2,5 NOK Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines Salg 78 USD BW LPG Kjøp 74 NOK North Energy Kjøp 3 NOK Schibsted A/B Kjøp 350 NOK Questerre Energy Nøytral 2 NOK Yara Salg 350 NOK Estimat Brent for 2015 60 USD/fat Norsk Hydro Kjøp 51 NOK Estimat Brent for 2016 75 USD/fat Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Equity Research 18 18.08.2015
Ukeporteføljen
Ukeporteføljen I forrige uke hadde vi en svak utvikling i ukeporteføljen sammenlignet med OSEBX indeksen. Porteføljen var ned 4,17%, mens OSEBX var ned 3,70%. Denne uken gjør tar vi ut Golden Ocean (-0,74%). Vi tar inn Statoil. Ukeporteføljen Aksje INN Aksje UT Marine Harvest Group Statoil Statoil Golden Ocean Group Gjensidige Forsikring Aurora LPG REC Silicon Borregaard MHG- Marine Harvest Group Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling med kursmål NOK 120. AURLPG- Aurora LPG Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling med kursmål NOK 83. REC- REC Silicon Vi har en salgsanbefaling med kursmål NOK 1,40. GJF- Gjensidige Forsikring Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling med kursmål NOK 150. STL- Statoil Vi har en nøytral anbefaling med kursmål NOK 140. BRG- Borregaard Ingen analysedekning Klikk for på selskapsnavn for siste analyse 20 18.08.2015
Ukeporteføljen avkastning Ukeportefølje Pris INN Dato INN Siste omsatt Utvikling Historisk avkastning* Marine Harvest Group 91,52 16.06.15 102,8 12,33 % Ukeporteføljen OSEBX Relativ Statoil 131,00 10.06.15 129,9-0,84 % Siden start (25 mars 09) 223,65 % 162,64 % 61,02 % Gjensidige Forsikring 124,01 12.05.15 127,8 3,06 % Hittil i år 23,46 % 6,36 % 17,11 % REC Silicon** 1,73 30.06.15 1,46-15,56 % Siste måned -4,31 % -4,11 % -0,20 % Borregaard 56,72 10.06.15 54,25-4,35 % Siste uke -4,17 % -3,70 % -0,47 % Aurora LPG* 54,21 24.03.15 59,25 9,29 % *justert for utbytte NOK 0,788 (USD 0,10) Eks. dato 29.06.15 ** justert for emisjon 16.07.15 OSEBX og ukeporteføljen* Meravkastning ukeporteføljen* 380 330 280 230 180 130 80 Portefølje OSEBX 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 100,0 % 90,0 % 80,0 % 70,0 % 60,0 % 50,0 % 40,0 % 30,0 % 20,0 % 10,0 % 0,0 % *Aksjene i ukeporteføljen vekter likt prosentmessig i porteføljen. Porteføljen blir rebalansert hver gang det gjøres en endring i beholdningen. Ved beregning av inngangskurs og utgangskurs vil vi benytte VWAP etter 1t med handel for OBX aksjer og VWAP etter 3t for aksjer utenfor OBX indeksen tirsdag morgen. Avkastning siste uke beregnes sist omsatt kurs, fredag til fredag foregående uke. 21 *Beregnet på sluttkurser foregående fredag
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