Torskefiskkonferansen 25 Tromsø 22. oktober 25 Valutaanalytiker Camilla Viland
Agenda Internasjonalt overblikk: Svak vekst og store forskjeller, sentralbankene vil skille lag Kina: Vår største bekymring Valuta: Fortsatt svak krone 2
Nye vekstskuffelser globalt Lavere vekst i fremvoksende økonomier: Rundt 4% i år Industrilandene slurer videre - ¾% i år, deretter underkant av 2%. Fortsatt stort vekstbidrag fra EMEs. Nedsiderisikoen har økt. 8 6 4 2-2 BNP Prosenvis volumendring fra året før -4 983 988 993 998 23 28 23 28 Verden Industriland Fremvoksende Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets, januar 25 Globalt BNP Prosentvis volumendring fra året før. Bidrag 7 6 5 4 3 2 - -2 994 2 26 22 28 Kina EMEs x Kina USA ØMU Øvrige industriland Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 3
Svak vekst og store forskjeller BNP Prosentvis endring år/år 7 6 5 4 3 2 - -2-3 Q2 2 Q2 2 Q2 22 Q2 23 Q2 24 Q2 25 USA ØMU Japan UK. G4 utgjør 35% av verdensøkonomien BNP 5 Prosentvis endring år/år 2 9 6 3-3 -6-9 -2 Q2 27 Q2 29 Q2 2 Q2 23 Q2 25 Kina India Russland Brasil. BRICs utgjør 53% av EMEs, 3% av verden
Stort sett nedjusterte vekstanslag BNP. Prosentvis endring fra året før Endring fra Januar 5 Konsensus 24 25 26 27 28 24 25 26 27 28 25 26 Verden 3.3 3. 3.4 3.4 3.2. -.4 -. -.2 -.4 3.5* 4.* Industriland.6.7.9.8.4. -.5 -. -. -.4.9** 2.2** USA 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.4.6. -. -. -. -.7 2.3 2.7 Eurosonen.9.3.2.2.3.. -. -. -..5.8 Sverige 2. 2.8 2.3 2. 2..2.6 -. -.4 -.3 2.7 2.9 Fastl.-Norge 2.2.4.4.8 2. -.3.2 -.3 -.3 -.3.4.8 Storbritannia 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3.9.... -.2 2.6 2.5 Japan -..7.3.4. -.2 -.3 -.3 -. -.4.8.7 Fremvoksende 4.6 4. 4.5 4.7 4.6.2 -.4 -.2 -.3 -.5 5.*** 5.7*** Kina 7.4 6.9 6.2 5.4 4.9. -.2 -.5 -.9 -. 6.9 6.7 India 7.2 7.6 8. 7.5 7.5.5.6.5.5.5 7.7 8. Brasil. -2... 2.. -2.5 -.5 -.5 -. -.6.6 Russland.6-4..5.5.5 -. -2..5 -.5 -.5-3.5.4 Kilde: Consensus Forecasts/DNB Markets *Vektet snitt av industriland* og BRIC **Vektet snitt av G3, UK, Norge og Sverige ***Vektet snitt av BRIC-landene 5
ØMU: På bedringens vei Støttet av lav inflasjon og svak euro. Forbruket viktigste driver 4 Forbrukertillit og privat forbruk 3. 3. ØMU: BNP, å/å 26 Konsensus Standardavik og høy/lav 3 2. 2.5 2. 2...5 -.. - -2..5-2 -3. Q3 2 Q3 25 Q3 2 Q3 25 Privat forbruk år/år Forbrukertillit, st.avvik fra snitt (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets. Jan-5 Mar-5 May-5 Jul-5 Consensus Forecasts DNB Markets Kilde: Consensus Economics/DNB Markets 6
ØMU: Men, midlertidige vekstdrivere Fortsatt vissen vekst og lavt prispress ESB vil gjøre mer 3 2 - -2 ØMU: Oljepris og KPI Prosentvis endring år/år -3 Q 2 Q 23 Q 25 Q 27 KPI Oljepris (ha) 6 4 2-2 -4-6.6.5.4.3.2. Eurokurs Faktisk/prognose 25.9.5. 85 Oct-8 Oct- Oct-2 Oct-4 Oct-6 Oct-8 EURUSD TWI (ECB,ha) 2 5 5 95 9 7
USA: Veksten har tatt seg opp etter svakt Q Forbruket viktig driver. BNP anslag 25: 2,4% og 26: 2,7%.2.8.4. -.4 -.8 USA: Vekstbidrag BNP Prosentenheter. Ikke annualisert Q2 24 Q4 24 Q2 25 Priv.forbruk Off.forbruk Investering Lager Nettoeksp. BNP 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2..5..5 USA: BNP, å/å 26 Consensus Standard avvik og høy/lav. Jan-5 Mar-5 May-5 Jul-5 Consensus Forecasts Kilde: Consensus Economics/DNB Markets DNB Markets 8
USA: Spesielt positiv utvikling i arbeidsmarkedet Men fortsatt lavt lønns- og prispress. Likevel godt nok til at renten skal opp 3 2 - -2-3 -4-5 USA: Sysselsetting Gjennomsnittlig månedlig endring per år () -6 995 2 25 2 25* * - hittil i år USA: BNP, inflasjon & ledighet Prosent 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-25 27 29 2 23 25 27 BNP k/k sjår Ledighet KPI å/å 9
Renter: Sentralbankene skiller lag Fed begynner å heve i høst, BoE starter på nyåret. Gradvis renteoppgang. ECB utvider og forlenger QE og holder renten nær null til 29. Nullrente i Japan. Mer QE fra Riksbanken, men rentebunnen trolig nådd. Hever neste år. Norges Bank kutter to ganger til. Rentebunn på rekordlave,25 prosent i 26. 6 5 4 3 2 Styringsrenter Faktisk/prognose 25.9.5 - Oct-8 Oct- Oct-2 Oct-4 Oct-6 Oct-8 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge 7 Sentralbankbalanser, %BNP 6 5 4 3 2 Q 2 Q 25 Q 2 Q 25 USA UK Eurosonen Japan
EURUSD: Noe sterkere dollar EURUSD.4.4.35.35.3.3.25.25.2.2.5.5...5.5.. 2-Oct-4 2-Oct-5 2-Oct-6 fwd CF Oct 5 PPP DNB Source: Thomson Reuters/Consensus Economics / DNB Markets
Kina: Gradvis svakere vekst Fra 7% i 25 til 6.2% i 26 og 5-5½ in 27-8. Kina: BNP å/å i prosent Faktisk og Consensus/DNB anslag. 9. 8. 7. 6. Jan- Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 CF 22 CF 23 CF 24 CF 25 CF 26 Faktisk DNB
Kina: 2 sjokk: Aksjemarkedskræsj og valutakurs Kina: Aksjer - A-aksjer 6 26 55 23 5 2 45 7 4 4 35 3 8 25 5 2 2 Aug-4 Nov-4 Feb-5 May-5 Aug-5 Shanghai Comp. Marginhandel (mrd CNY, ha) Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 6.45 USDCNY 6.4 6.35 6.3 6.25 6.2 6.5 6. 6.5 6. -Aug -Aug 2-Aug 3-Aug Tillatt handelsinterval USDCNY Fix Kilde: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets
Kina: Hvordan håndtere kredittmarkedet? Økt sannsynlighet for hard landing 2 Kina: Gjeld i privat sektor Prosent av BNP 8 6 4 2 Trend: 986-2 8 6 Q3 986 Q3 992 Q3 998 Q3 24 Q3 2
Den norske kronen Source: www.risksandrewards.org.uk
Historisk svak krone Lengste periode over 9 mot euro noensinne 5 95 9 Handelsveid krone* 85 Oct-9 Oct-95 Oct- Oct-5 Oct- Oct-5 * Importvektet (I-44). Lavere kurs, sterkere krone 2 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 EURNOK: Perioder over 9 Øre t t+ t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 28 24 25 6
Hovedforklaring: Oljeprisen Og nå blir oljebremsen stadig tydeligere i norske nøkkeltall Handelsveid krone og oljepris 3 2 Makroscore Gjennomsnitt av delindekser 8 5 4 5 2 6 99 96 7 8-93 9 Oct-4 Feb-5 Jun-5 Oct-5 NOK TWI (I-44) Olje, $/fat (inv, ha) -2 Sep-9 Sep- Sep-3 Sep-5 USA ØMU Sverige Norge Kilde: DNB Markets 7
Norges Bank har kuttet og vil kutte igjen Svært lave renter fører til at et godt argument for å kjøpe kroner forsvinner 2. Norway: Key policy rate Percent.7 Renteforskjell og EURNOK 8..5.5.3 8.4 8.8.. 9.2.5.9 9.6. 24 25 26 27 28 Actual MPR3/5 DNB Markets Source: Thomson Datastream/Norges Bank/DNB Markets.7. Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Rentediff.2år EURNOK (inv.ha) 8
Dårlig likviditet og store kursutslag E-handel, spekulasjon, reguleringer. Demper kroneinteressen 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2..5. Daglig endring EURNOK Absolutte tall. Prosent.5 Jan- Jan-5 Jan- Jan-5 Ekstreme kursbevegelser 6. desember 24 2h 3h 4h 5h 6h 7h 8h 9h h h 2h 3h 4h 5h 6h 7h 8h 9 9.9 9.85 9.8 9.75 9.7 9.65 9.6 9.55 9.5 9.45 9.4 9.35 9.3 9.25 9.2 9.5 9. 9.5 9
Tegn til økt interesse for kroner igjen Og sentralbanken kjøper kroner for å dekke underskudd viktig støtte 8 6 4 2-2 -4 Utenlandske bankers nettokjøp av norske kroner og EURNOK 8. 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9. 9.3-6 9.5 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Nettokjøp, 4 ukers gl. Snitt Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets EURNOK, inv. (ha) 6 2 8 4-4 -8-2 Daglige valutakjøp Millioner NOK per dag Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2 2 22 23 24 25 26* *Forutsetter kronekjøp i halve desember Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets 2
Oljeprisen skal opp igjen Og markedet vil skjønne at det ikke er noen krise i norsk økonomi 5 3 9 7 5 3 Oljepris Brent Blend, USD/fat Feb-5 Feb- Feb-5 Feb-2 Faktisk Anslag, ØU2-5 Norge: Hovedtall, % 6 5 4 3 2 - -2 996 2 26 2 26 Fastlands-BNP, å/å KPI, å/å Ledighet Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 2
Kronen er undervurdert Kroneposisjoner vil igjen bli attraktive når nedsiderisiko er redusert -5 - -5-2 -25-3 NOK PPP beregninger Over/undervurdering vs valuta. Prosent -35 EUR USD SEK GBP JPY CHF
Svakere krone frem mot jul Kronen vil hente seg noe inn igjen neste år 9.8 EURNOK 9.8 9. USDNOK 9. 9.4 9. 9.4 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 8.5 8. 7.5 8.6 8.6 7. 7. 8.2 8.2 6.5 6.5 7.8 7.8 2-Oct-4 2-Oct-5 2-Oct-6 Fwd CF Oct 5 PPP DNB Kilde: Thomson Reuters/Consensus Economics/DNB Markets 6. 6. 2-Oct-4 2-Oct-5 2-Oct-6 fwd DNB CF Oct 5 PPP Kilde: Thomson Reuters/Consensus Economics/DNB Markets 23
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