Økonomiske utsikter Universitetet i Oslo 16.9.13 Seniorøkonom Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets
Fremvoksende økonomier fortsatt i tet 6 5 4 3 1-1 Globalt BNP Prosentvis volumendring f ra året f ør. Bidrag - 199 1996 4 8 1 16 Kina EMEs x Kina USA ØMU Øvrige industriland Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Finanskrisen er en industrilandskrise Mye ledig kapasitet 6 4 - -4-6 -8 BNP, sesongjustert Prosentvis endring siden 8Q1-1 Q1 8 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 13 USA ØMU-kjerne PIIGS Jap UK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Finanskrisen er en industrilandskrise Mye ledig kapasitet = lav inflasjon 1 Industriland: Ledighet og inflasjon 1 8 6 4 Q 1983 Q 1993 Q 3 Q 13 Ledi ghetsrate Kjernei nflasjon (ha) Kilde: OECD/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Opprydningen tar tid Et berg av statsgjeld Offentlig bruttogjeld, %BNP 3 5 15 1 5 SD DK OE NL BD UK IR ES FR PT US IT GR JP Kilde: IMF Fiscal Monitor/DNB Markets 7 1 16 5
Opprydningen tar tid og privat gjeld etter boligbobler som sprakk 14 Husholdningenes bruttogjeld Prosent av disponibel inntekt 15 Boligpriser Deflatert med KPI. =1 13 14 1 11 1 13 1 11 1 9 9 8 Q1 5Q1 1Q1 USA Eurosonen Kilde: IMF WEO 13-I/DNB Markets 8 Q1 5Q1 1Q1 USA Eurosonen Kilde: IMF WEO 13-I/DNB Markets
Sentralbankene gjør de det kan Fortsatt full gass i pengepolitikken 6 5 4 3 1 Styringsrenter Faktisk/prognose 1. august 13 Aug-6 Aug-8 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-14 Aug-16 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Sentralbankbalanser, t-5=1 55 5 45 4 35 3 5 15 1 5 Aug-7 Aug-8 Aug-9 Aug-1 Aug-11 Aug-1 Aug-13 Fed BoE ESB BoJ Kilde: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets
Nye virkemidler prøves ut Forward guidance i vinden! Q4 14 Desember 1: Renten skal forbli på dagens nivå så lenge ledigheten er over 6½%...gitt at inflasjonsanslagene om to år ikke overstiger,5%, og inflasjonsforventningene er godt forankret. Q4 15 Q1 16 Juli 13: Fra «we never pre-commit» til «we expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. Snart rentemøtereferat? August 13: Renten skal holdes lav til ledigheten faller til 7 prosent gitt at finansiell stabilitet ikke er i fare, inflasjonsforventningene ikke går i været, eller inflasjonsanslagene til BoE overstiger.5% på 18-4 mnd sikt. 8
Klart omslag i sommer Veksten tiltar i industrilandene 6 PMI BNP-vektet 58 56 54 5 5 48 46 Aug-1 Aug-11 Aug-1 Aug-13 OECD-industri OECD-tjenester BRIC-industri Kilde: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets 9
Memo: BNP fra etterspørselssiden Privat forbruk (varer, tjenester) Investeringer (næringsinvesteringer, boliginvesteringer) Offentlig etterspørsel: Forbruk og investeringer Nettoeksport (eksport minus import) Lager 1
Forbrukerne sliter med lav inntektsvekst og nedbetaling av gjeld Men har blitt litt mindre pessimistiske! 3 Forbrukertillit Standardavvik fra snitt siste 15 år 1-1 -! -3 Sep-3 Sep-8 Sep-13 ØMU-kjerne ØMU-periferi USA Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 11
USA har gjort mye av opprydningsjobben der eurosonen henger etter Gjelden er mindre, lønnsveksten er stigende 13 11 USA: Husholdningenes finanser Prosent av disponibel inntekt 15 14 1.5 9. USA: Ledighet og lønn. 1. 9 13 7.5. 7 1 6. 3. 5 11 4.5 4. 3 1 Q 1953 Q 1973 Q 1993 Q 13 Gjeld Trend 195- Renter/avdrag (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 3. 5. Aug-93 Aug-98 Aug-3 Aug-8 Aug-13 Ledighetsrate, sj. Lønn (å/å, %,inv, lag6m,ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 1
Offentlige budsjettinnstramninger slipper taket 8 Syklisk justert primærbalanse Prosent av BNP. Endring år/år 6 4 - -4-6 Eurosonen Japan USA UK 9 1 11 1 13 14 Kilde: IMF Fiscal Monitor/DNB Markets 13
Alle ønsker drahjelp fra utlandet Utenrikshandelen bidrar positivt i kriseherjede land 3 5 15 1 5-5 -1-15 - -5 Driftsbalanse Mrd euro 4 6 8 1 1 14 Ty. Pt. Ir. It. He. Sp. EZ-4 Kilde: OECD EO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 14
Et kriseherjet finanssystem legger en ekstra demper på veksten Europeiske banker strammer fortsatt til 1 Kredittvilkår for bedrifter netto % av banker m/innstramming 16 ØMU: Bankutlån Prosentvis endring år/år 8 6 4 1 8 - -4 Q3 7 Q1 9 Q3 1 Q1 1 Q3 13 ØMU USA store/med. Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 4-4 Jul-3 Jul-8 Jul-13 Bedrift Bolig Forbrukslån Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 15
Norge: Annerledeslandet (I) 1 6 - -6 BNP. sesongjustert Prosentvis endring siden 8Q1-1 Q1 8 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 13 USA Sverige Kilde: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets Eurosonen Fastlands-Norge Arbeidsledighet, prosent 14 1 1 8 6 4 Jul-3 Jul-5 Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 USA Eurosonen Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets
Annerledeslandet (II) 36 Boligpriser Def latert med KPI. 199 = 1 3 4 18 1 6 Q 1993 Q 1998 Q 3 Q 8 Q 13 Norge USA UK Spania Danmark Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 17
Stor offentlig formue 5 Norge: Offentlig formue Prosent av BNP 15 1 5 198 199 1 Brutto Netto Kilde: OECD EO88, Nov 1/ Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 18
Forsiktige forbrukere, svak eksport, lavere investeringstakt også for olje Bredt basert taktskifte 5 4 3 1-1 - Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 to +5. Prod. ha -3 Nov-3 Nov-5 Nov-7 Nov-9 Nov-11 Nov-13 Oljel ev. B/A Varehandel Eksportind. Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets 19
Litt tråere i arbeidsmarkedet Sysselsettingen har stagnert det siste året 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 5 4 Aug-3 Aug-5 Aug-7 Aug-9 Aug-11 Aug-13 Sysselsatte Arbeidsmarked 1 personer. Sesongjustert Kilde: Thomsen Datastream/NAV/DNB Markets Registrert helt ledige+ti ltak (ha) 1 11 1 9 8 7 6 5
Inflasjonen hoppet i juli og august hva gjør Norges Bank nå? 4. 3.5 3..5. 1.5 1..5 Foliorente Prosent. 1 13 14 15 16 Faktisk PR /13 DNB Markets Kilde: Thomson Datastream/Norges Bank/DNB Markets KPI-JAE Endring år/år i prosent 5 4 3 1-1 - -3-4 -5 Jan- Jan-3 Jan-6 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-15 I alt Kjerneimport Øvrig Kilde: SSB/DNB Markets 1
Oljeinvesteringene nær toppen, oljeprisen avtar Næringslivet får mindre drahjelp fra sokkelen Thousands Oljepris og oljeinvesteringer 1 18 16 1 14 1 8 1 6 8 6 4 4 198 199 1 Oljeinvesteringer (NOK 8-mrd) Oljepris. Realprisindeks. 8=1 Kilde: Thomson Datastream/Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Oljeinvesteringer, % 4 3 1-1 - -3 199 1995 5 1 15 År/år Andel av Fastlands-BNP (ha) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 1 9 8 7 6 5
Stagnasjon i boligprisene siden januar Boligpriser og bygging topper neste år 15 1 5-5 Bruktboligpriser Sesongjustert -1 16 Jan-5 Jan-8 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 år/år, % Kilde: EFF/Eiendomsverdi/finn.no/DNB Markets 1 kroner/kvm (ha) 34 31 8 5 19 Boliginvesteringer, % 5 15 1 5-5 -1-15 - 199 1995 5 1 15 År/år Andel av Fastlands-BNP (ha) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 3
Moderasjonslinja slo inn allerede i år Dempet reallønnsvekst de neste årene 7 Norge: Lønnsvekst Prosentvis endring år/år 6 5 4 3 1 5 1 15 Reallønn Konsumpriser Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 4
Vil spare litt mindre enn nå Forbrukerne vil bidra mest til veksten Husholdninger. Prosent 1 1 8 6 4 - -4-6 199 1995 5 1 15 3..8.6.4.. Forbruk (ha) Inntekt (ha) Sparerate Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 5
13-16: Vekst under pari ( prosent), ledigheten øker Medvinden løyer for norsk økonomi Norge: Hovedtall 7 6 5 4 3 1-1 - 199 1995 5 1 15 Fastlands-BNP KPI Ledi ghet Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 6
5 4 3 1-1 - Bidrag til vekst i fastlands-bnp Prosenpoeng 1 13 14 15 16 Lager Off. ettersp. Nettoeksport Fastlandsbedrifter Olje/sjøfart Hushol dni nger BNP FN (% år/år) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 7
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