Fra pennesplitt til pokemon Innovasjon i det offentlige Norge Mars

Fra pennesplitt til pokemon Innovasjon i det offentlige Norge Mars 2017 www.arctic.com 1

«Med innskuddspensjon kommer kvinner i snitt dårligere ut en enn menn, fordi de lever lenger og dermed har flere år hvor de kun får utbetalt pensjon fra folketrygden.» Aftenposten, 12. januar 2017 2

Kilder til ustabilitet TØYS DEMOGRAFI URO ØKONOMI ENDRING TEKNOLOGI KRISE KLIMA 3

Redningen Norsk politikk Norsk tradisjon Norske kommuner Norske muligheter 4

De 8 Halvparten 9

Norge spesielt utsatt: Utlignet skatt etter alder, 2012 10

STEINALDEREN TOK IKKE SLUTT FORDI VI SLAPP OPP FOR STEIN 15

HESTEEIERNE OPPFANT IKKE BILEN Dagens Næringsliv, 26/8-2010 16

En verden full av kortsiktige kriser Krim Korea Syria Finansielle Digitale Biologiske Korea 18

Færre som vil betale skatt... Forventet levealder i Norge Yrkesdeltagelse i Norge 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 Kvinner Menn 20

Maktskiftene i verden Kilde: PWC

Kilde: PWC

Produktivitet, ikke posisjon betyr noe for Norge 24

Den gamle vs den nye verden Clinton brukte lineær TV Trump brukte sosiale medier Pensjonister Yngre kvinner Barnefamilier Sorte Latinamerikanere Studenter 26

Den gamle vs den nye verden Clinton brukte lineær TV Trump brukte sosiale medier Pensjonister Yngre kvinner Barnefamilier Sorte 12-20 målgrupper og særskilte budskap Latinamerikanere 175 000 målgrupper og særskilte budskap Studenter 27

Uansett hvor alvorlig man tror det er... Faktiske forandringer i klima og værsystemer Politiske reguleringer som svar på uroen 29

Automatiske stabilisatorer Handlingsregelen «godt innafor» 58 pst av BNP er offentlige utgifter SPU investert i utlandet Fri bevegelse av arbeidskraft Flytende valutakurs Samarbeid og Flexicurity i arbeidslivet Strenge kapitalkrav til bankene Pengepolitikken i Norges Bank 31

Verdiskaping og bedre

Democracy Index World Happiness Index Social progress index Where-to-beborn index Human development index Human poverty index GDP per capita (IMF) Norway Norway Norway Switzerland Norway Sweden Luxembourg Iceland Denmark Sweden Australia Australia Norway Switzerland Sweden Iceland Switzerland Norway Switzerland Netherlands Norway New Zealand Switzerland Iceland Sweden Denmark Finland Qatar Denmark Finland New Zealand Denmark Netherlands Denmark Ireland Canada Netherlands Canada Singapore Germany Germany USA Ireland Canada Finland New Zealand Ireland Switzerland Singapore Switzerland New Zealand Denmark Netherlands USA Canada Denmark Finland Australia Netherlands Canada Canada Luxembourg Australia Australia Sweden Australia Hong Kong New Zealand Austria Iceland Luxembourg Israel United Kingdom Finland Singapore France Sweden Netherlands Costa Rica Ireland Ireland Hong Kong Japan San Marino Germany Austria Austria Austria Liechtenstein Australia United Kingdom Austria USA Germany Taiwan Sweden Belgium Austria Malta Ireland Japan Belgium United Kingdom Spain Netherlands United Kingdom Germany USA Germany Iceland United Kingdom Canada Spain Belgium Belgium United States South Korea USA Finland Mauritius Luxembourg Portugal United Arab Emirates Israel Ireland Hong Kong Uruguay United Kingdom Slovenia South Korea Macau Italy Germany Japan Chile Spain Israel Luxembourg Belgium USA United Arab Emirates France Italy Japan United Arab Emirates

Høy tillit til myndighetene Kilde: Finansdepartementet 36

Stort potensiale for økt bruk av IKT i offentlig sektor

Store forskjeller mellom institusjoner 100 Utnytting av operasjonskapasitet 80 60 40 20 0 Prosent Kilde: Produktivitetskommisjonen 38

Betydelig effektiviseringspotensial i offentlig sektor Potensial for effektivisering basert på DEA-metode. Prosent SFO Kommunalt barnevern Kommunal pleie og omsorg Kommunal administrasjon Grunnskole Universitet og høyskoler Barnehage Politi Sykehusene Laveste anslag Øverste anslag Statlig barnevern Kilder: Diverse DEA-analyser. Produktivitetskommisjonen 0 10 20 30 40 50

Det var på tide å få et oljesjokk Income from the petroleum sector¹). In billions of NOK 800,0 700,0 600,0 500,0 400,0 300,0 Economic rent Excess costs Normal costs 200,0 100,0 0,0 1) Economic rent is gross production value deducted for all costs. Normal return on capital is included in the costs. Excess costs are defined as input price inflation in the petroleum sector in excess of input price inflation in the mainland economy. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 41

Se det positive bildet... Norsk gjennomsnittslønn = 520 800 42

Norsk finanshistorie: Opptur og nedtur for oljå Demand from oil and gas activity, per cent of mainland Norway GDP 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Source: 2015 National budget -4-4 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 43

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Norway Sweden USA Brazil Arctic Securities AS P.O. Box 1833 Vika NO-0123 Oslo Haakon VIIs gt 5, NO-0161 Oslo Arctic Securities AS Sweden Branch Biblioteksgatan 8 SE-111 46 Stockholm Arctic Securities LLC 1 Rockefeller Plaza Suite 1706, New York NY 10022 Arctic Brasil Escritório de representação Ltda Rua Lauro Müller, 116 - Sala 4404 Torre do Rio Sul / Botafogo 22290-160 Rio de Janeiro Tel +47 21 01 31 00 Tel +46 844 68 6100 Tel +1 (212) 597 5555 Tel +5521 2025 7400 45