Centre for environmental design of renewable energy - CEDREN www.cedren.no
CEDREN - Centre for environmental design of renewable energy 9 store forskningsprosjekter 7 norske forskningspartnere 16 brukerpartnere fra industri og 2 fra forvaltningen Budsjett: ca 360 MNOK (40 MNOK in 2015) 25 PhD og 6 Post-doc studenter Kobler teknologi, økonomi, miljø og samfunnsfag Fornybar energi på lag med naturen
Framtidas vannkraft
Hvor mye vann er nok? for vannkraft og økosystemet
Økologi Hydrologi Med god kunnskap og tverrfaglig samarbeid er det mulig å finne gode løsninger Vi har nå et veletablert samarbeid mellom biologer, hydrologer og eksperter på kraftverksdrift Vannkraft
Utviklet for bruk i Norge med fokus på laksefisk Metodikk passer for andre miljøforhold også Stor internasjonal interesse Finnes på engelsk og kinesisk Kan lastes ned på: www.cedren.no
Mandalsvassdraget Laudal kraftverk Konsesjon: 1977 I drift: 1981 Anadrom strekning: 48 km
I dag: 1.5 m 3 /s vinter og 3 m 3 /s sommer NVE: 6 m 3 /s vinter og 8-25 m 3 /s sommer 10
Redusere behov for minstevannføring Øke kraftproduksjonen Habitatforbedring: Terskelfjerning + øke antall gyteområder Øke lakseproduksjonen
Løsninger Terskelfjerning + øke antall gyteområder i samme anleggsfase 11 terskler X 20 (100 m 2 pr. stk.) 1 kunstig gyteplass (100 m 2 ) = 12.000 TOTALT= 240.000 Smoltproduksjonen som oppnås med prøvereglementet kan oppnås med mindre vannslipp Habitatforbedrende tiltak alene kan øke smoltproduksjonen tilsvarende vannslippet i prøvereglementet Kraftproduksjon økes med 12.5 GWh (~315 000 )
CEDREN HydroBalance Balancing from hydropower feasibility check By: Research Manager Michael M. Belsnes & WP-leaders
Understanding possibilities Theoretical potential offshore wind 14 000 TWh 2006: Oil & Gas: 2500 TWh/y Hydro power: 125 TWh/y Subsea Transmission Network The European energy market demands: - Renewable energy - Balancing Power 15
Integrating Northern and continental balancing markets Large benefits Source: Farahmand (NTNU/SINTEF) Total annual balancing cost savings (Mill.EURO) Detailed European grid model based on DC power flow. Representation of day-ahead, intra-day and balancing markets. Co-optimizing day-ahead schedules and reserve procurements based on forecasts 16
Significant additional savings are achieved with intra-day markets Total annual balancing cost savings Activated reserves Source: Aigner (NTNU) 17
Goldistal, Germany
400 350 300 Comparing LCOE for Norwegian Pumped Hydro and Gas Power Plants OCGT-1 OCGT-2 CCGT Pumped Hydro Statkraft LCOE [ /MWh] 250 200 150 100 50 Increasing p pump 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Load Factor [%]
. even when grid and cable costs are included Statkraft 400 350 300 OCGT-1 OCGT-2 CCGT Pumped Hydro LCOE [ /MWh] 250 200 150 100 50 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Load Factor [%]
Conclusion so far.. Interconnectors must be given full access to all markets, including capacity markets, for utilization of the most economical viable sources of storage and flexible power in Europe Tyin Aurland Sima Hol Nore Mauranger/Oksla/Tysso Tinnsjø Kvilldal Jøsenfjorden Holen Lysebotn Tonstad
Balancing from hydro: economic feasibility 1. How will hydropower be operated in the future? 2. How large share of the income will come from different markets? 3. Will investments in new pumped storage be profitable in Norway? 22
Case: Otra river system Together with Agder Energi Production capacity: 1.1 GW (14 plants) Storage capacity: 3.7 TWh (13 reservoirs) Annual production: 5 TWh ProdRisk input provided by Agder Energi
Pumped storage investment 1000 MW: extra generation capacity and pump Reservoirs: 15 days to empty/fill Total efficiency (pump x generation): 72.2 % (conservative, cf. Ibrahim 2007) Estimated total costs: 416 M (Henden, 2014)
Economic results (in M per year) Day-ahead only (Climate years 2007-2011) German prices (Climate year 2008) Statistics Niche Storage Big Storage DA only Multimarket Average yearly income 205 474 517 654 669 Additional operating profits 9 23 30 133 161 Investment cost *) -24-24 -24-24 -24 Investment profits *) -15-2 5 109 137 Break even interest rate -0,5 % 4,5 % 6,6 % 31,1 % 38,8% *) With 5 % annual interest rate
Conclusions Variability in operation Increased with pumped storage (short term and during a year) Highest for multi-market strategy Traditional day/night trend is changed because of solar radiation Price-level is important for total income Price-variability (and therefore market participation) is important for profitability of pumped-storage investment Based on our study, environmental impacts in reservoirs will be studied further in HydroBalance 26
Balancing Moving demand = Moving generation 27
Balancing renewables with data centres 60 new large datacentres in Europe by 2020 Hamina (Finland 2011) peaked with 1800 working during construction, and have 230 people on site for operation 350 Mill invested in phase I and II Apple planned by 2017 Viborg 170 000 m2 District heating, secure supply 99,997% One of two centres of total 1,7 Bill GreenCloud, Iceland (Foto: Apple) Source: ZDNet and www.investinfinland.fi and www.google.com
Balancing renewables with data centres Enablers and barriers Infrastructure for power and data Secure supply of power Technical solutions and cost Speed of load-change? Cooling (up to 40% of energy cost) District heating possibilities, fishfarming Juridical "Finland the Switzerland of data"
Balancing renewables with data centres - business Coordination in time low load in high price hours by moving intensive calculations Coordination in space move data not energy between geographical locations Participating in several markets Excess energy from cooling Investment cost Expected savings Green profile Data center location Energy cost 100 MW/hour 2008 prices Moving demand 100% Norway 40,67 M /year 2,77 M /year Germany 57,76 M /year 19,72 M /year
Balancing renewables with data centres - technical Demand response of a data center, how fast and how much Low load threshold Distribution of energy use in a data center Technical constraints when mirroring data Scalability, exponential need for storage Data control and energy control systems
How to proceed? Economic feasibility Is it possible to construct a competitive business model Revenues and operation based on future expected market prices Technical feasibility Finding the technical attractive solution Synergies with other businesses Fosen Vind versus Agder Energi Farming Heating