Generation Scheduling

Transkript

1 Michael Belsnes Generation Scheduling Who we are What we do What we plan to do 1

2 Hvem er vi? Rådgivere Elkraft Fysikk Fys-Mat Kybernetikk Økonomi Olje & lim Elkraft Fysikk Kybernetikk Fys-Mat Maskin Indøk Elkraft Elkraft Informatikk Elkraft Indøk Informatikk Elkraft Elkraft Fysikk 2

3 What we mostly do Type/share of research in the team Research surround the models Method development Bilateral projects Model/customer follow-up

4 Models and their organization 4

5 Node model Hydropower Wind Solar Thermal generation Oil,coal Nuclear Bio Firm power demand Spot power demand Transmission capacity to other subsystems YYYY 5 -MM- DD

6 Short-term scheduling 6

7 Interaction between production and grid models Statistical data temperature inflow data Hydro/thermal power plant data Price dependent and independent load Distribution of generation load import/export EMPS (Samnett) (ProdNett) Spot market area CP Cost of congestion Market simulator modifications restrictions on transmission losses Grid data Lines Cables Transformers Power Flow Utilization of lines and cables Total and marginal losses 7

8 Water through the models More than 180 TWH/year 8

9 Users more than 200 9

10 Utility value of the models Billions NOK / year 10

11 CEDREN HydroBalance Balancing from hydropower feasibility check By: Research Manager Michael M. Belsnes & WP-leaders

12 CEDREN HydroBalance: Technology WP 1:Roadmaps for balancing from Norwegian hydropower (Julie Charmasson) Assess the possibility space for balancing power from Norway towards Europe Timeline for when, how and where Norwegian hydropower should respond WP 2:Demand for energy balancing storage (NTNU: Prof. Magnus Korpås) Establish data models with Short- long-term storage, interaction between markets PhD: Ingeborg Graabak WP 3: Analyses to develop relevant business models (Ove Wolfgang) Possible business models for operation in different markets for balancing, including cross border possibilities. Analyses of possible capacity projects, profitability and operation Includes a substantial research cooperation with ECN and EON

13 CEDREN HydroBalance: WP's WP4: Environmental impact of operation schemes for balancing (NINA: Ingeborg Helland) Research task regarding environmental impact on reservoirs, size and type Use CEDREN results for broad analyses of environmental impact and mitigation. Postdoc: Antti Eloranta WP 5: Social acceptance and regulatory framework (Marte Qvenild) Political barriers and success criteria for balancing power Income distribution and socialization of cost, non technical challenges.

14 Case study: Otra river system Together with Agder Energi Production capacity: 1.1 GW (14 plants) Storage capacity: Annual production: 3.7 TWh (13 reservoirs) 5 TWh ProdRisk input provided by Agder Energi

15 Pumped storage investment 1000 MW: extra generation capacity and pump Reservoirs: 15 days to empty/fill Total efficiency (pump x generation): 72.2 % (conservative, cf. Ibrahim 2007) Estimated total costs: 416 M (Henden, 2014)

16 Economic results (in M per year) Day-ahead only (Climate years ) German prices (Climate year 2008) Statistics Niche Storage Big Storage DA only Multimarket Average yearly income Additional operating profits Investment cost *) Investment profits *) Break even interest rate -0,5 % 4,5 % 6,6 % 31,1 % 38,8% *) With 5 % annual interest rate

17 Summery of results Variability in operation Increased with pumped storage (short term and during a year) Highest for multi-market strategy Traditional day/night trend is changed because of solar radiation Income Future scenarios gives 2-3 times higher total income Multi-market strategy gives about 2% extra income Payback for investment in pumped storage Negative profits for historical prices About break-even for day-ahead strategy at future prices Multi-market strategy: Income from investment increase by 21% 17

18 Vår forskning skal gi økt verdiskapning gjennom. Våre modeller utvikles for å håndtere Vannkraft i samspill med sol og vind energi MAD prosjektet Vi studerer innflytelse av nye markeder på strategi for disponering av vannkraften IBM prosjektet Vi løser operative utfordringer knyttet til at vannkraften kan levere inn i flere markeder Multi-Sharm prosjektet Vi finner hvordan vannkraftmodellering kan gi forbedret informasjon for planlegging av transmisjonsnettet SOVN prosjektet Vi utvikler metoder som gjør det mulig å ta bedre hensyn til ulineariteter, detaljert energiflyt og markedsmodellering I-SIP prosjektet Vi skaper suksesshistorier gjennom gode forskningsprosjekt i tett samarbeid med energi bransjen 18

19 Initiativer på tegnebrettet til høsten 2016 Prognosering av flere (balanse) markeder i Samkjøringsmodellen Modellering av sluttbruker fleksibilitet og optimaliserende forbruk Sikre gyldig optimalisering av ikke-fysiske leveranser Modellering at tilstandsavhengige (miljø) restriksjoner Økt presisjon i modellering gjennom bruk av nye metoder innen operasjonsanalyse Ulineær modell for lokal energisystemplanlegging Optimal reinvestering og vedlikehold i utbygd vannkraft 19