Økonomiske utsikter: II - 2016 Hovedpunkter fra DNB Markets halvårsrapport, publisert 17. august 2016 Presentasjon på: Hordaland på Børs Av: Senioranalytiker Eirik Larsen Sted/dato: Bergen, 18. august 2016
Velkommen til presentasjon av Økonomiske utsikter II-2016 Dette skal jeg prate om: 1) Forsøk på overblikk 2) Det internasjonale bildet Eirik Larsen Senioranalytiker / Chief Technical Analyst DNB Markets E-mail: eirik.larsen@dnb.no Mobil: +47 911 93 600 Post: 0021 Oslo Besøk: Dronning Eufemias gate 30 3) Norsk økonomi 4) Renter, Valuta og oljepris 5) Oppsummering 2
Aller først: Årets sommerbilde 2016 er nå kåret! Tittel: «Gjør som du vil, kle deg som du vil men glem ikke solkremen!» Årets Bilde 2016: 3
Økonomiske utsikter II 2016 DNB Markets halvårsrapport per 17. august 2016 1) Vår bekymring for den globale vekstevnen har økt; dels pga. fallende produktivitet og dels pga. det stadig voksende gjeldsberget 2) Vi venter litt mer trøkk i den amerikanske økonomien fremover - men Fed vil være enda mer tilbakeholde med rentehevingene 3) Veksten i Kina holdes fortsatt oppe av offentlige stimulanser, men gjeldsutviklingen bekymrer oss mer og mer 4) Brexit er ingen katastrofe men det truer de økonomiske utsiktene både på kort og lang sikt 5) Eurosonen snubler videre, men både «brexit» og politisk fragmentering demper de økonomiske utsiktene 6) Rentefesten synes i stigende grad å være over, men nachspielet vil vare lenge 7) Nedsidepotensialet for norsk økonomi er redusert og med klare føringer for sterkere kronekurs og rentesetting 8) Super-syklene i FX-markedet ved veis ende og dollaren skal ned 9) El-biler til tross: olje-etterspørselen stiger i 10 år til, minst 4
På starten av 2016 var jeg full av bekymringer og mine bekymringer står (dessverre) fortsatt ved lag i dag! 5
Sommerens nyhetsbilde ble i så henseende dramatisk nok I tillegg til dopingskandalene, NSB, regnværet og alle de andre tingene, selvfølgelig. Terror Brexit Trump Kuppforsøket 6
Våre vekstanslag for 2017 er på den svake siden og gjenspeiler redusert potensiell vekst og fall i produktiviteten i de fleste rike land 1,4% (-0,1%) 2,2% (+0,2%) 0,8% (-1,4%) 1,0% (-1,5%) 1,7% (-0,7%) 1,2% (-0,2%) 6,6% (1,5%) 0,7% (-0,4%) 7,5% (0,0%) 0,5% (+1,0%) 3,2% (-0,1%) 1,3% (-0,4%)* 4,6% (+0,2%) * Endring i prosenpoeng fra vår januar-prognose 7
DNB Markets: Renteprognose per 17. august 2016 Den ekstreme pengepolitikken synger på siste verset The Fed: Hever i desember, men vil gå mer forsiktig frem BoJ: Kaster inn håndkleet: Ikke flere kutt, takk! BoE: «Brexit» fremtvinger enda et kutt - så er det slutt ESB: Tapering men ingen heving før på 2020-tallet? Sveriges Riksbank: Neste endring blir en heving Norges Bank: Inflasjon og boligmarkedet skremmer og rentebunnen er nå sett 8
Norge: Oslo Børs har synliggjort oljesmellen Den enes død er den annens brød og i snitt så har vi det tålelig bra Oslo Børs etter oljeprisfallet. Per: 2. august 2016 Basis: 1. juli 2014. Oljepris: 115 $/fat 120 100 80 Sjømat-indeksen +95% 60 40 20 0-20 -40 Hovedindeksen Energi-indeksen 0% -35% -60-80 -53% -75% -100 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Oljeprisen -62% 9
Oljesmellen har hatt (og har) også sine lyse sider og det er ikke slik at «alt er bare tungt og trist» Lavere renter Styrket konkurranseevne gjennom svakere lønnsvekst og en svekket NOK Bedret kostnadskontroll og bevisstgjøring Frigjøring av ressurser & kunnskap Stimulering til mer innovasjon og entreprenørskap nytt 10
Tegn tyder på at vi nå kan ha lagt det verste bak oss og nedsidepotensialet i norsk økonomi er redusert 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Norges Bank regionalt nettverk Vekst i produksjon. Aggregert 0-0.5-1? -1.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 65 Norge: PMI, sj. 60 55 50 45 40 35 Aug-10 Aug-12 Aug-14 Aug-16 I alt Sysselsetting Produksjon Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 11
Hovedbildet som avtegnes av den norske økonomien er at veksten bunner i år, inflasjonen kulminerer og ledigheten flater ut 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 Norge: Hovedtall, % -2 1990 2003 2016 Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Fastlands-BNP, å/å KPI, å/å Ledighet 12
Og for å gjenta årets sitat som olje- og energiminister Tord Lien stod for i DN 2. februar 2016: 13
Oljeprisprognosene understøtter dette selv om vi må minne om at vi fortsatt er mer positive til oljeprisene enn markedet Spot Brent: Historiske priser og prognose Prognose per kvartal 120 66 100 80 65 70 80 64 62 60 60 65 65 60 40 20 46 60 58 56 54 52 55 0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 50 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 54,32 52,86 65 60 55 50 45 42,23 41,51 40 35 30 27,10 50 July August September November 2016 February March April May June July August September October 14
Mye «feilprising» i valutamarkedet for tiden basert på kjøpekraftsparitetene er dollaren og francen overvurdert, mens kronen er mest undervurdert >10%: Kursen er for høy og skal ned Valutakursens avvik i forhld til PPP Per 11. august 2016 40% 30% 31% 27% 36% 20% 10% 0% 12% 1% 10% 5% 3% 6% -10% -20% -30% -16% -17% <-10%: Kursen er for lav og skal opp -20% -13% EURUSD EURNOK USDNOK EURSEK SEKNOK EURGBP USDJPY EURCHF GBPNOK JPYNOK CHFNOK GBPUSD EURJPY 15
Hva med daler n? Dollar er ikke u-påvirket av oljeprisen. Eller var det omvendt? 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 USDNOK Olje A M J A S O N D 2013 A M J J A S O N D 2014 A M J J A S O N D 2015 A M J J A S O N D 2016 A M J A S Eller med andre ord 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 16
Valutakurs-prognoser Vi venter en fortsatt sterk dollar og etter hvert også en sterkere norsk krone EURUSD + USDJPY anslag for perioden 2018-2020 er basert på renteparitet USDNOK + EURNOK anslag for perioden 2018-2020 er basert på renteparitet 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 1.12 1.11 1.10 101.3 100 100 1.13 98 1.15 95 1.18 100 1.20 105 1.25 110 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 8.23 8.29 8.09 7.79 7.57 7.20 6.92 6.56 9.18 9.20 8.90 8.80 8.70 8.50 8.30 8.20 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 0.90 15-Aug-16 Nov-16 Aug-17 Aug-19 85.0 0.00 15-Aug-16 Nov-16 Aug-17 Aug-19 7.50 EURUSD USDJPY USDNOK EURNOK 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 GBPNOK + CHFNOK anslag for perioden 2018-2020 er basert på renteparitet 10.63 10.70 10.23 843 844 817 800 10.00 777 9.67 737 9.34 699 8.92 8.00 15-Aug-16 Nov-16 Aug-17 Aug-19 670 8.63 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 JPYNOK + SEKNOK anslag for perioden 2018-2020 er basert på renteparitet 8.12 8.29 8.09 97.78 98.86 96.59 7.95 7.96 97.21 97.87 96.74 93.26 7.20 92.13 6.59 5.96 5.00 15-Aug-16 Nov-16 Aug-17 Aug-19 100.00 98.00 96.00 94.00 92.00 90.00 88.00 GBPNOK CHFNOK JPYNOK SEKNOK 17
Oppsummert Lav potensiell vekst og fall i produktiviteten bidrar til nye utfordringer for verdensøkonomien Vår bekymringsliste blir stadig lengre og toppes av faren for hard, økonomisk landing i Kina Oljebremsen har rammet den norske økonomien hardt, men vi tror det verste nå er tilbakelagt Pengepolitikken fremstår uttømt i stadig flere land og kun UK vil kutte renten på nytt. USA vil gå enda mer varsomt frem Vi forventer en stigende oljepris, et forestående dollarfall og etter hvert også en vesentlig sterkere norsk krone 18
Og helt til slutt Tusen takk for at du hørte på! 19
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Memo: DNB Markets internasjonale vekstanslag per 17. august 2016 BNP. Prosentvis endring fra året før Endring fra Januar 2016 Konsensus 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2016 2017 Verden 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.4 0.0-0.1-0.1 0.3 0.2 3.2* 3.6* Industriland 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.0-0.4-0.4 0.2 0.5 1.4** 1.6** USA 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1-0.1-1.1-0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.3 Eurosonen 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.2-0.2-0.1 0.1 1.5 1.2 Sverige 4.1 3.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.5 2.3 Fastl.-Norge 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.1-0.3-0.3-0.1 0.0-0.1 0.8 1.6 Storbritannia 2.2 2.0 0.8 1.2 1.8-0.2-0.3-1.4-0.5 0.1 1.6 0.6 Japan 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6-0.2-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.1 0.5 0.8 Frem voksende 3.9 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 5.1*** 5.5*** Kina 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.3 5.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.7 6.6 6.3 India 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 0.1-0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 7.6 Brasil -3.8-3.5 0.5 1.5 2.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0-3.3 0.8 Russland -3.7-0.6 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.9-1.5 0.0 0.0-0.8 1.2 Kilde: Consensus Forecasts/DNB Markets *Vektet snitt av industriland* og BRIC **Vektet snitt av G3, UK, Norge og Sverige ***Vektet snitt av BRIC-landene 21
Memo: DNB Markets Norge frem mot 2019 per 17. august 2016 Makroøkonomiske nøkkeltall. Norge 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Privat forbruk 1.7 2.0 1.3 1.8 2.5 2.7 Offentlig forbruk 2.9 1.9 3.0 2.3 2.0 2.2 Oljeinvesteringer -2.9-15.0-15.0-10.0 5.0 10.0 Fastlandsinvesteringer 1.3 0.0 3.3 2.0 1.4 2.3 Private bedrifter -0.4-3.0 0.3-1.4-0.4 1.7 Boliginvesteringer -1.5 1.6 7.0 2.8 1.0 2.0 Offentlige investeringer 7.3 3.0 3.7 6.1 4.2 3.5 Trad. vareeksport 2.5 4.8-2.0 3.0 2.8 3.0 Trad. vareimport 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 3.2 4.1 BNP 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.7 - Fastlands-Norge 2.3 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.1 Sysselsetting 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 Arbeidsledighet (AKU) 3.5 4.4 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 Årslønn 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.0 Konsumpriser 2.0 2.2 3.7 2.6 1.7 1.5 KPI-JAE 2.4 2.7 3.2 2.2 1.4 1.2 Sparerate 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.4 Boligpris 2.3 7.2 7.8 7.0 4.0 3.0 Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets mai 2016 22
Memo: DNB Markets renteprognoser per 17. august 2016 Styringsrente 15-Aug-16 1 mnd Nov-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 USA: Fed Funds 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 Japan: Dag-til-dag -0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10 Euroland: Repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 UK: Bank rate 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Sverige: Repo -0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.25 0.00 0.00 Norge: Folio 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Sveits: 3M Libor CHF -0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75 Tre mndr 15-Aug-16 1 mnd Nov-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 USA 0.82 0.90 1.05 1.05 0.90 1.35 1.85 2.35 Japan 0.06 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.05 Euroland -0.30-0.30-0.30-0.40-0.40-0.30-0.30-0.30 Storbritannia 0.39 0.35 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.25 Sverige -0.55-0.50-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.10 0.25 0.25 Norge 1.11 1.20 1.15 1.05 1.00 0.90 0.90 0.90 Sveits -0.74-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75 10 år swap 15-Aug-16 1 mnd Nov-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 USA 1.40 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 2.25 2.50 Japan 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Euroland 0.29 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00 Storbritannia 0.69 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 Sverige 0.62 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.50 Norge 1.41 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 Sveits -0.32-0.25-0.25-0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23
Memo: DNB Markets valutakursprognoser per 17. august 2016 Valutakurs 15-Aug-16 1 mnd Nov-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 USDJPY 101.3 100 100 98 95 100 105 110 EURUSD 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.18 1.20 1.25 EURGBP 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95 EURDKK 7.44 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 EURSEK 9.44 9.40 9.20 9.00 8.80 8.80 8.90 8.90 EURNOK 9.18 9.20 8.90 8.80 8.70 8.50 8.30 8.20 EURCHF 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.15 1.19 1.22 USDCNY 6.65 6.70 6.75 6.80 6.90 7.11 7.32 7.54 Kalkulerte prognoser 15-Aug-16 1 mnd Nov-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 SEKNOK 97.21 97.87 96.74 97.78 98.86 96.59 93.26 92.13 USDNOK 8.23 8.29 8.09 7.79 7.57 7.20 6.92 6.56 GBPNOK 10.63 10.70 10.23 10.00 9.67 9.34 8.92 8.63 JPYNOK 8.12 8.29 8.09 7.95 7.96 7.20 6.59 5.96 DKKNOK 123 123 119 118 117 114 111 110 CHFNOK 843 844 817 800 777 737 699 670 24