Forventet prisutvikling for kraft- og elsertifikatmarkedet, kort og lang horisont

Forventet prisutvikling for kraft- og elsertifikatmarkedet, kort og lang horisont Kraftdagen 2015, Bodø, 12. November 2015 A presentation from Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com +47 37 00 97 61 This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 1

Changed Nordic Power Balance 2010-2014 Major changes last 4 years with lower consumption and increased renewable production. Changes from 2010 to 2014: Wind: +17 TWh Hydro: +6 TWh Nuclear: +8 TWh Consumption: 0 TWh. Nearly 30 TWh change in 4 years! Nearly same situation in Germany: Wind +18 TWh, Solar +11 TWh, Consumption -27 TWh Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 2

Expected Nordic Power Balance 2014-2017 Consumption +8 TWh Nuclear +5 TWh Hydro +3 TWh Wind +8 TWh Bio/CHP + 5 TWh Power balance increases 13 TWh compared to 2014 Expected need for 15 TWh export, assuming average weather: Russian import 4 TWh Export to Estonia, Poland, Lithuania 14 TWh Export to Netherlands: 4 TWh Export to Germany: 1 TWh Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 3

Endringer i kull og EUAs nov. 14 - nov. 15 Kull for levering 2016 gikk fra 71 til 46 $/t, mest pga. Kinas fallende kull-import EUA-ene gikk opp 2 /t, pga. EUs politiske inngrep med Market Stability Reserve Euro falt med ca. 13% mot dollar Nettovirkning: Kullkraft har blitt 3.5 /MWh billigere å kjøre Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 4

This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 5 Dramatiske endringer i kullmarkedet Kinesisk import av kull: Var verdens største importør i 2013-14, men 40% fall i 2015 importvolum og mer fall i sikte Indisk prognose for kull-import: Skulle bli verdens største importør, men har falt 13% i år og mer fall i sikte Selvkost for kull har falt 10-20%, pga. rimeligere diesel (nest viktigste innsatsfaktor), fall i valutakurser, og kostnadskutt. Lønnskutt i vente (lønn er viktigste innsatsfaktor)? Kullutvinning må reduseres: Kutt foretatt, mere i vente i USA, Australia, Indonesia, via gruvenedleggelser og noen konkurser

Lowered German and Dutch long term spot price expectations (2015)/MWh Assumed German power forward curve, excl. additions from a possible capacity market (2015)/MWh Assumed Dutch power forward curve, excl. additions from a possible capacity market 35 34 33 44 42 32 31 30 29 40 38 36 28 27 26 34 32 25 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 30 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 German power price curve June 2015 German power price curve Sept. 2015 Dutch power price curve June 2015 Dutch power price curve Sept 2015

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Lowered UK and Russian long term spot price expectations (2015)/MWh 65 60 55 50 45 40 Assumed UK power forward curve, excl. additions from capacity market (2015)/MWh 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 Assumed Russian power forward curve (incl. capacity market prices) UK power price curve June 2015 UK power price curve Sept 2015 Russian power price June 2015 Russian power price Sept 2015

Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 8 Nordic Hydrological Balance 18. nov. 2014 in TWh deviation from average levels End of Reservoir Snow/Groundwater Total Week Norway Sweden Norway Sweden Hyd bal 45 2,2-1,1-2,3-1,0-2,2 46 2,6-0,7-4,1-2,1-4,3 47 2,0-0,4-5,2-3,7-7,3 48 1,2 0,0-6,3-4,7-9,8 49 0,3 0,2-6,3-4,8-10,6

25.11.2015 www.mkonline.com 9 Precipitation Norway/Sweden Summer months (May-Aug) One of the highest in more than 80 years: Surplus 13 TWh

MKOnline NP Price expectations 18. November 2014 Product Forecast Delivery period MK M-Market Market Diff Forecast 18.nov Market Tue 18.11 31,8 MDEC-14 34,8 33,4 1,4 MJAN-15 36,5 35,1 1,4 MFEB-15 37,2 35,6 1,6 MMAR-15 34,4 33,3 1,2 MAPR-15 33,4 32,4 1,0 MMAY-15 32,2 30,1 2,1 Q1-15 36,0 34,7 1,4 Q2-15 31,9 31,1 0,8 Q3-15 30,3 29,9 0,5 Q4-15 32,9 34,2-1,2 YR-15 32,7 32,5 0,3 YR-16 31,4 31,5-0,1 YR-17 30,1 30,4-0,3 YR-18* 31,6 29,9 1,7 YR-19* 30,2 30,6-0,4 EUR Leveringspriser: Q1-15: 28.4 /MWh Q2-15: 20.9 /MWh Q3-15: 13.3 /MWh Q4-15: 24.7 /MWh (prognose) Yr-16: 22.3 /MWh (marked) Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 10

Nordic Hydrological Balance 11. nov. 2015 in TWh deviation from average levels Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 11

Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 12 Nordic Hydrological Balance 2015 40 TWh Hydrological balance 2010-2015 compared to statistics 1967-2011 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 Hydr.bal. 2015 Prognosis Hydr.bal. 2015 5% 95% Week 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Reservoir Norway The hydro reservoir level is on a strong downward trend. High production and strong exports support the downward trend, but we still see a high reservoir level This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 13

Reservoir Sweden Reservoir level s expected to fall a lot the next couple of weeks, and this will help to gain more control in the hydro system. There is still a high level compared to normal. This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 14

Sunday, 08. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 15 Svensk kjernekraft: Oskarshamn 2 er nå ute for alltid (MW) 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 Available Nuclear Power Sweden 2008-2016 5000 4000 3000 2000 Plan 2015 Plan 2016 2015 2014 2010 Week 1000 Installed capacity 2016 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

MKOnline NP Price expectations 11. November 2015 Forecast Delivery period Product MK Coal M-Market Market Diff SRMC Forecast 11.nov Market 10.nov MDEC-15 26,0 24,8 1,2 29,1 MJAN-16 28,0 26,0 2,0 28,7 MFEB-16 29,6 26,3 3,3 28,6 MMAR-16 27,0 22,3 4,7 28,9 MAPR-16 26,4 21,5 4,9 29,3 MMAY-16 25,7 18,9 6,8 28,9 Q1-16 28,2 24,6 3,6 28,3 Q2-16 25,6 19,1 6,5 27,6 Q3-16 24,0 17,9 6,2 27,5 Q4-16 27,9 23,3 4,6 27,5 YR-16 26,4 21,2 5,3 27,7 YR-17 27,2 21,8 5,4 27,7 Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 16

NP Price percentiles 11. november 2015 in /MWh Product 11.11.2015 NP Eltermin 5 % 10 % 20 % 35 % 50 % 65 % 80 % 90 % 95 % Average 10.nov W48 22,5 23,4 24,4 25,2 26,1 27,1 27,9 29,4 30,2 26,2 24,9 MDEC-15 21,3 22,4 23,4 24,6 25,4 26,6 27,6 29,3 30,9 25,6 24,9 MJAN-16 20,9 22,2 23,8 25,9 27,5 29,1 31,3 34,2 35,2 27,7 26,0 MFEB-16 18,6 20,5 23,6 26,3 29,2 32,2 35,4 38,4 41,8 29,5 26,6 Q1-16 18,2 20,3 22,6 25,3 28,0 30,6 33,6 36,7 39,3 28,2 24,8 Q2-16 14,2 16,7 19,8 23,2 26,1 28,4 32,2 36,0 37,9 25,7 19,3 Q3-16 12,6 15,4 18,2 21,7 24,5 27,1 28,9 32,9 34,4 24,0 18,1 Q4-16 19,8 21,2 23,0 25,4 27,6 29,5 31,4 35,4 39,1 27,9 23,7 YR-16 16,2 18,4 20,9 23,9 26,5 28,9 31,5 35,2 37,7 26,5 21,4 YR-17 16,2 18,2 21,4 24,2 26,8 29,3 32,7 36,4 39,4 27,2 22,2 YR-18 16,2 18,1 21,5 24,4 26,9 29,4 32,8 36,6 39,4 27,3 22,2 YR-19 15,3 17,3 20,7 23,7 26,1 28,7 31,8 35,4 38,0 26,4 22,5

NP Area Price expectations 11. November 2015 in /MWh Product NP Elterm MK Syst Oslo Tr. heim Tromsø Bergen Luleå NO1 NO3 NO4 NO5 SE1 10. nov. MDEC-15 24,9 25,6 26,2 22.7 22,2 25,8 22,1 Q1-16 24,8 28,2 28,0 25,7 24,9 27,5 25,2 Q2-16 19,3 25,7 24,1 25,0 24,4 24,1 25,8 Q3-16 18,1 24,0 21,6 25,0 24,8 21,6 24,6 Q4-16 23,7 27,9 27,3 27,0 26,3 27,0 26,6 Q1-17 25,9 31,2 31,6 31,4 29,4 31,1 29,6 YR-16 21,4 26,5 25,2 25,7 25,1 25,0 25,6 YR-17 22,2 27,2 26,8 27,1 26,2 26,6 26,4 YR-18 22,2 27,3 27,0 27,0 26,2 26,9 26,7 YR-19 22,5 26,4 26,8 26,7 25,7 26,5 26,1

Langsiktige kraftpris-prognoser for Norden A presentation from Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com +47 37 00 97 61 This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 19

This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 20 Fokus i vår LTP September rapport Svekket vekst i kinesisk økonomi: Innvirkning på økonomisk vekst og kraftmarkeder i Europa, sistnevnte mest via kullmarkedet Fall i oljepris virker inn på økonomisk og industriell vekst i Europa, samt på utslipp av CO2, selvkost på kullgruver Reaktor-nedleggelser i Sverige: Oskarshamn 2 legges ned, i tillegg til Oskarshamn 1 og Ringhals 1&2 (som tidligere var inkl. i våre antagelser) Kraftforbruksprognoser for nordiske land justert opp for elektrifisering av transportsektor og etablering av datasentre

This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 21 Endringer etter vår LTP September Kinesisk økonomi: dypere endringer enn tidligere antatt, overgang fra tung industri/urbanisering/fabrikketablinger mot forbrukersamfunn, strengere miljøpolitikk, mer fall i stål/aluminium. Virker mer inn på resten av globale vekstprognoser enn tidligere antatt Indisk prognose for kull-import: Redusert kraftig, siden egen kullutvinning lykkes stadig bedre, selvforsyning av kull er målet Nedleggelser av brunkull-kraft i Tyskland: I tillegg til reaktornedleggelser i Tyskland, Frankrike, Belgia og en del andre land Økt immigrasjon: skaper en mindre økning i kraftforbruk i Norge, Sverige, Tyskland og andre land

22 MK Coal price scenarios September 2015 Coal price development applied in our analysis, ref. CIF ARA $(2015)/ ton 130 110 90 70 50 High Sept '15 Base Sept '15 Low Sept '15 Base June'15 Base prognosis based on Perret Associates «Long Term Price Forecast 2014-30, August 2015 Reduced Chinese import demand for coal, counteracted by some supply cuts 30 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

Supply side expectations are altered [Mt CO2] 3000 2500 2000 Accumulated oversupply towards 2030 We now take into account a 40% ghg target in 2030, having implications for EUA supply towards 2030 1500 1000 500 0-500 -1000-1500 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Annual surplus of carbon credits Structural accumulated surplus of carbon credits Carbon credits in circulation, when MSR is implemented from 2019 and 1350 Mt of backloading volume/remaining New Entrants' EUAs are transferred to the reserve We expect the Market Stability Reserve to be implemented from 2021 If prices do not expect from recent levels, we expect the MSR will induce a scarcity of EUAs from 2026

24 Global LNG market: Supply capacity outlook Expected growth in capacity 2014-2018: 13.8 Bcf/d (28% up) Australia is doubling its 2015 capacity (+11.5 Bcf/d)

EUA 2015-2030 price forecast 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 [ /t] 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 MK low scenario MK high scenario Prices will remain low for a few more years, before climbing slightly We expect EUAs at 10 /t as an average over the 2017-2030 period If cement and steel do not recover towards 2020 from recent years output levels, carbon prices could drop towards 0-1 /t Base case scenario Market prices 28th of August 2015

Earlier Swedish nuclear decommissioning Our assumptions regarding Swedish nuclear capacity during 2018-2026: Up to 22 TWh/y reduction of generation, due to early decommissioning of Oskarshamn 1 (from 2022 to 2018) Oskarshamn 2 (from 2033 to 2018) new assumption Ringhals 1 (from 2025 to 2018) Ringhals 2 (from 2026 to 2019) Decommissioning of Ringhals 1 & 2: announcement from Vattenfall disclosed in early May 2015 Decommissioning of Oskarshamn 1 & 2: announcement from EON in late June 2015 to close reactors permanently as soon as possible This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 26

This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 27 Consumption in all sectors reviewed Residential Nordic consumption: Adjusted 2 TWh/y upwards Nordic industry: Adjusted 1 TWh/y upwards (Norwegian power intensive, Swedish pulp & paper) Nordic data storage centers: 5 TWh/y in total in Nordic area in 2020, 8.5 TWh/y in 2030 (minor changes) Transportation sector: 4 TWh/y in 2020 and 10 TWh in 2030 (2021-2030 estimates adjusted 3 TWh/y upwards) Total Nordic power consumption is, compared to previous edition, up 3.5 TWh/y for 2020, up 5 TWh/y for 2030-35

Nordic power balance 2015-30 (in TWh/y) Year Hydropower* Nuclear *) Average for reference period: 1962-2006 Wind power CHP bio elcert CHP others Thermal Consumption Balance 2008 199,5 83,0 10,3 7,3 49,4 20,9 401,3-30,8 2009 200,3 72,2 11,1 9,0 46,5 23,9 379,6-16,6 2010 201,9 77,2 13,4 11,7 52,4 28,2 393,6-8,9 2011 203,6 79,8 17,2 9,1 47,2 21,0 389,5-11,6 2012 207,1 82,9 19,5 8,2 41,9 13,3 392,8-19,8 2013 208,2 84,7 23,4 7,9 41,5 21,3 389,6-2,6 2014 209,7 85,6 28,5 9,0 37,3 17,7 390,2-2,4 2015 210,6 82,0 31,6 9,7 45,9 13,8 393,7-0,1 2016 211,1 91,7 33,8 10,3 46,5 13,2 395,3 11,3 2017 212,5 92,2 37,4 10,8 48,0 11,4 397,8 14,5 2018 214,4 88,6 42,1 11,1 48,8 9,4 400,6 13,8 2019 215,7 94,4 45,7 11,4 49,3 7,5 402,0 22,0 2020 217,1 89,1 50,9 11,4 49,8 6,6 403,0 21,9 2021 217,4 89,1 52,5 11,5 50,6 6,2 404,3 23,0 2022 217,7 89,1 54,2 11,6 51,1 5,8 405,5 24,0 2023 218,1 89,1 55,2 11,8 51,8 5,4 406,5 24,8 2024 218,4 89,1 56,1 12,0 52,3 4,8 407,6 25,0 2025 218,7 98,7 57,0 12,2 52,8 4,4 408,7 35,1 2026 219,0 98,7 57,8 12,4 53,3 4,1 409,7 35,7 2027 219,3 98,7 59,3 12,6 53,8 3,9 410,6 37,0 2028 219,7 94,7 59,9 12,8 54,3 3,7 411,5 33,5 2029 220,0 90,7 61,4 13,0 54,8 3,6 412,6 30,9 2030 220,3 90,7 62,9 13,2 55,3 3,5 413,6 32,3 onsdag, 25. november 2015 www.markedskraft.com 28

onsdag, 25. november 2015 www.markedskraft.com 29 Norwegian power consumption 2015-30 (in TWh/y) Year Hydropower* Wind power CHP bio Thermal El boilers *) Average for reference period: 1962-2006 Residential consumption Industry Central grid loss/pumping Total consumption 2008 121,8 1,0 0,0 1,2 3,9 84,2 39,4 3,8 131,2-7,3 2009 122,5 1,1 0,0 3,5 4,0 80,4 36,0 3,2 123,5 3,6 2010 123,4 1,1 0,0 3,6 3,6 82,6 37,8 2,2 126,2 1,9 2011 124,6 1,2 0,0 3,4 3,2 82,0 37,2 3,7 126,2 3,1 2012 127,9 1,6 0,0 2,2 3,6 84,2 37,7 4,1 129,6 2,1 2013 128,9 2,0 0,0 3,3 3,7 84,9 38,9 3,0 130,5 3,6 2014 130,2 2,2 0,0 3,4 3,3 85,1 40,2 3,7 132,3 3,6 2015 130,7 2,3 0,0 3,5 3,4 86,9 40,5 3,9 134,7 1,8 2016 131,0 2,3 0,0 3,5 3,4 86,5 41,4 3,7 135,0 1,8 2017 132,2 3,0 0,0 3,5 3,5 87,2 41,9 3,7 136,3 2,4 2018 133,9 3,7 0,1 3,2 3,4 87,7 43,1 3,7 137,9 3,0 2019 134,9 4,4 0,2 3,0 3,2 88,2 43,2 3,7 138,4 4,1 2020 136,0 4,7 0,2 2,5 3,0 88,7 43,4 3,7 138,8 4,6 2021 136,2 4,7 0,2 2,5 2,9 89,1 43,6 3,7 139,3 4,3 2022 136,4 4,7 0,2 2,5 2,8 89,6 43,7 3,7 139,8 4,0 2023 136,6 4,7 0,2 2,5 2,7 90,0 43,8 3,7 140,2 3,8 2024 136,8 4,7 0,2 2,3 2,6 90,4 43,8 3,7 140,6 3,4 2025 137,0 4,7 0,2 2,1 2,5 90,9 43,9 3,7 141,0 3,0 2026 137,2 4,7 0,2 2,0 2,5 91,4 43,9 3,7 141,5 2,6 2027 137,4 4,7 0,2 2,0 2,5 91,9 43,9 3,7 142,0 2,3 2028 137,6 4,7 0,2 2,0 2,5 92,4 43,9 3,7 142,5 2,0 2029 137,8 4,7 0,2 2,0 2,5 93,1 43,8 3,7 143,1 1,6 2030 138,0 4,7 0,2 2,0 2,5 93,7 43,8 3,7 143,7 1,2 Balance

onsdag, 25. november 2015 www.markedskraft.com 30 Swedish power balance 2015-30 (in TWh/y) Year Hydropower* Nuclear *) Average for reference period: 1962-2006 Wind power* CHP bio CHP others Consumption* Balance 2008 65,0 61,1 2,2 7,3 6,6 146,9-4,8 2009 65,2 49,7 3,0 9,0 6,0 139,5-6,6 2010 65,7 55,4 4,1 11,7 6,3 144,3-1,1 2011 66,0 57,6 5,7 9,1 6,2 142,6 2,0 2012 66,1 61,0 7,4 8,2 6,2 143,7 5,2 2013 66,1 62,1 9,4 7,9 6,2 141,0 10,7 2014 66,3 63,1 11,4 9,0 6,0 140,7 15,1 2015 66,5 59,4 12,8 9,7 5,8 141,8 12,5 2016 66,6 69,4 13,5 10,3 5,5 142,2 23,2 2017 66,7 69,8 14,9 10,8 5,5 142,7 25,0 2018 66,8 60,3 16,8 11,0 5,5 143,1 17,3 2019 67,0 53,3 18,5 11,2 5,5 143,5 12,0 2020 67,2 48,0 19,4 11,2 5,5 143,8 7,5 2021 67,2 48,0 19,4 11,3 5,5 144,0 7,4 2022 67,2 48,0 19,4 11,4 5,5 144,2 7,3 2023 67,3 48,0 19,5 11,6 5,5 144,4 7,5 2024 67,3 48,0 19,6 11,8 5,5 144,6 7,6 2025 67,3 48,0 19,7 12,0 5,5 144,7 7,8 2026 67,3 48,0 19,9 12,2 5,5 144,8 8,1 2027 67,3 48,0 20,1 12,4 5,5 145,0 8,4 2028 67,4 48,0 20,3 12,6 5,5 145,1 8,7 2029 67,4 48,0 20,5 12,8 5,5 145,2 9,0 2030 67,4 48,0 20,7 13,0 5,5 145,3 9,3

onsdag, 25. november 2015 www.markedskraft.com 31 Finnish power balance 2015-35 (in TWh/y) Year Hydropower* Nuclear Wind power* CHP Thermal Consumption* Balance 2008 12,7 21,9 0,3 26,3 8,8 87,2-17,3 2009 12,6 22,5 0,3 24,6 8,8 81,3-12,4 2010 12,8 21,8 0,3 28,0 14,1 87,7-10,7 2011 13,0 22,2 0,5 25,4 9,7 85,9-15,1 2012 13,1 21,9 0,5 23,1 5,1 85,1-21,3 2013 13,2 22,6 0,8 23,8 8,1 84,5-16,0 2014 13,2 22,5 2,4 21,3 7,3 83,6-16,9 2015 13,4 22,6 3,5 25,1 5,7 83,9-13,6 2016 13,5 22,3 4,4 26,7 5,1 84,5-12,5 2017 13,6 22,4 5,4 27,5 4,5 85,0-11,6 2018 13,7 22,4 6,7 28,3 3,2 85,2-10,9 2019 13,8 35,3 7,0 28,7 2,0 85,4 1,4 2020 13,9 35,4 7,4 28,8 1,8 85,2 2,1 2021 14,0 35,4 7,8 29,3 1,6 85,5 2,6 2022 14,1 35,4 8,2 29,5 1,4 85,7 2,9 2023 14,2 35,4 8,6 29,8 1,2 85,8 3,4 2024 14,3 35,4 9,0 30,1 1,0 85,9 3,9 2025 14,4 45,0 9,4 30,4 1,0 86,0 14,2 2026 14,5 45,0 9,5 30,7 1,0 86,0 14,7 2027 14,6 45,0 9,5 31,0 1,0 86,1 15,0 2028 14,7 41,0 9,5 31,3 1,0 86,1 11,4 2029 14,8 37,0 9,5 31,6 1,0 86,2 7,7 2030 14,9 37,0 9,5 31,9 1,0 86,3 8,0 *) Average for reference period: 1962-2006

Infrastructure main Nordic grid Year Internal links Capacity (MW) 2015 Norway-Jutland 699 2016 SouthWest-link Swe 1 400 2017 Ørskog-Fardal 1 500 2025 Finland-Sweden 500/800 2026 Jutland-Zealand 600 Year Cable links external Capacity (MW) 2016 Sweden-Lithuania 700 2019 Jutland-Germany 1 000 2019 Jutland-Netherlands 700 2020 Norway-Germany 1 400 2021 Norway-UK 1 400 2024 Norway-UK 1 400 2025 Sweden-Germany 700 2030 Zealand-Germany 700 2030 Jutland-UK 1 400 onsdag, 25. november 2015 www.markedskraft.com 32

Simulated power flow from Nordic area in 2021 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 [TWh/year] Net annual exchange from Norway to Germany/UK/Netherlands 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2021 Cable links external Annual Power flow (TWh) Finland-Estonia/Russia 6.5 Sweden-Lithuania 4.0 DK-Germany 1.5 Norway-Germany 0.5 Sweden-Germany 0.5 DK-Netherlands 3.0 Norway-UK 9.5 Norway-Netherlands 1.5 Sweden-Poland 1.0 Total 28.0 This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 33

onsdag, 25. november 2015 www.markedskraft.com 34 Nordic Power price scenarios 2015-2040: Markedskrafts three latest base scenario calculations (2015)/MWh Price development in the base scenario, compared to previous editions 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Base 2015 Sept Base 2015 June Base 2015 March

onsdag, 25. november 2015 www.markedskraft.com 35 Nordic Power price scenarios 2014-2040: Markedskrafts three price scenarios of September 2015 Forecasted Nordic spot price of base load power, in real 2015 euros (2015)/MWh 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 "High 2015" Sept "Base 2015" Sept "Low 2015" Sept

onsdag, 25. november 2015 www.markedskraft.com 36 Nordic Power price scenarios 2015-2040: Markedskrafts Power Prices versus SRMC coal /MWh 40 35 30 25 Forecasted Nordic power price (annual average) and costs of coal fired generation (SRMC) 20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Coal-fired costs Simulated prices

Simulated Nordic Area prices. Base scenario Area Prices in the base scenario 2015-2028 [2015 /MWh]. September 2015 edition Year System Oslo Krsand Bergen Tr.heim Tromso SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4 Finland Jutland Zealand 2015 22,0 21,0 21,0 20,9 21,8 21,4 21,5 21,5 22,2 23,0 29,6 23,0 24,5 2016 25,9 24,8 24,6 24,6 25,8 25,1 25,3 25,5 26,2 26,7 29,8 26,6 27,8 2017 26,6 26,3 26,1 26,1 26,6 25,9 26,0 26,1 26,6 27,0 29,0 26,8 27,9 2018 27,7 28,2 28,0 28,1 28,2 27,5 28,2 28,3 28,9 29,3 30,2 29,0 30,2 2019 28,1 28,1 27,7 27,7 27,6 27,0 28,0 28,0 28,5 28,1 28,1 28,9 29,0 2020 29,1 28,7 28,6 28,6 28,9 28,3 29,0 29,1 29,1 29,1 29,2 30,3 30,6 2021 30,4 30,2 30,2 30,2 30,3 29,5 30,2 30,3 30,3 30,3 30,4 31,0 31,3 2022 30,7 30,6 30,6 30,6 30,8 30,0 30,7 30,7 30,7 30,8 30,8 31,2 31,6 2023 31,1 31,0 31,0 31,0 31,1 30,3 31,0 31,1 31,1 31,1 31,1 31,8 32,0 2024 32,0 32,1 32,1 32,1 32,2 31,1 31,8 31,9 31,9 31,9 31,9 32,2 32,4 2025 31,8 32,2 32,3 32,3 32,4 31,1 31,5 31,5 31,6 31,6 31,4 32,1 32,1 2026 31,8 32,2 32,3 32,3 32,4 31,0 31,4 31,4 31,5 31,5 31,4 32,3 32,2 2027 32,0 32,4 32,5 32,5 32,6 31,1 31,6 31,6 31,6 31,7 31,5 32,5 32,4 2028 32,1 32,6 32,6 32,6 32,7 31,2 31,7 31,7 31,8 31,8 31,7 32,6 32,5 Area price differences are reduced significantly, due to earlier nuclear decommissioning onsdag, 25. november 2015 www.markedskraft.com 37

Situasjonen pr 11. november, markedspriser vs. våre analyser Markedet har ikke priset inn fire svenske reaktorers utfasing og flere nye Forecast Delivery period Product MK Coal M-Market Market Diff SRMC Forecast 11.nov Market 10.nov YR-16 26,4 21,2 5,3 27,7 YR-17 27,2 21,8 5,4 27,7 YR-18 27,3 21,9 5,4 27,8 YR-19 26,4 22,1 4,3 27,8 YR-20* 26,9 23,0 3,9 27,9 utenlandsforbindelser som kommer med stor eksport Markedet farget av lang periode med vått, vindfullt og mildt vær Over-representasjon av selgere, bla. av ny fornybar kraft (med hedging-krav fra banker), mer hedging blant produsenter enn blant forbrukere Men: Fortsatt risiko for mere lavtrykks-perioder, mere fall i kull, fall i EUAs (som følge av svak industrivekst og fallende gass-priser) onsdag, 25. november 2015 www.markedskraft.com 38

El-sertifikat, status og perspektiver A presentation from Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com +47 37 00 97 61 This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 39

Tirsdag, 13. januar 2015 www.markedskraft.com 40 Elcert: Accumulated balance now

Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 41 Kvote-kurver for Norge og Sverige 62 65% av totalt konsum er pliktig til å kjøpe elsertifikater Kraftintensiv industri ca. 25% og tap i overføringer ca. 10%, er unntatt fra elsertifikater Alle konsumenter som er pliktig til å kjøpe elsertifikater, må kjøpe sertifikater etter en årlig prosentsats som vist i tabellen Kvotekurven gjelder fra januar 2015. Neste justering: januar 2018 Nye kvotekurver for Norge og Sverige Year Sweden Norway Akk. Vol. 2015 14,3 % 8,8 % 11,7 2016 23,0 % 9,2 % 7,0 2017 24,6 % 11,0 % 5,6 2018 26,2 % 12,8 % 4,5 2019 27,6 % 14,5 % 4,0 2020 26,6 % 17,0 % 3,7 2021 25,0 % 17,0 % 3,6 2022 23,5 % 16,9 % 3,5 2023 22,2 % 16,9 % 3,4 2024 20,5 % 16,8 % 3,3 2025 18,4 % 16,7 % 3,2 2026 16,1 % 15,8 % 3,1 2027 14,0 % 14,6 % 3,0 2028 12,4 % 12,6 % 2,9 2029 10,8 % 10,7 % 2,8 2030 9,1 % 8,9 % 2,7 2031 7,1 % 7,1 % 2,3 2032 5,3 % 5,4 % 2,1 2033 3,7 % 3,6 % 1,4 2034 2,1 % 1,8 % 0,6 2035 1,3 % 0,9 % 0,0

Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 42 Elcert prices for Norway/Sweden Short term: Weather-related and other rapid changes in fundamental balance in elcert market. Expectations now: 18 20 /MWh Mid term: Changes in renewable capacity, changes in quota curves, changes in «control station». Expectations now (2017-18): 23-27 /MWh (base scenario) Long term: Costs for new capacity to fulfil the 28.4 TWh goal. See next slide. Expectations now: 31-33 SEK/MWh (base scenario)

Income prognosis for elcert projects 2015-20 Updated 14th of September 2015 Nordic Assuming LCoE Total income Real Euro Power price windpower= 55 /MWh green projects Year Base forecast Elcert base forecast power+elcert 2015 22 18 40 2016 26 21 47 2017 27 26 52 2018 28 29 57 2019 28 33 61 2020 28 33 61

Income prognosis for elcert projects 2021-30 MK-Base Prognosis, 15th of September 2015. Income in real /MWh Nordic Assuming LRMC Total income Real Euro Power price windpower= 55 /MWh green projects Year Base forecast Elcert base forecast power+elcert 2021 29 32 61 2022 30 31 61 2023 31 30 61 2024 31 30 61 2025 32 29 61 2026 32 29 61 2027 32 29 61 2028 32 29 61 2029 32 29 61 2030 32 29 61

Elcert market 2020-2035 End of 2020, our «basis» prognosis assumes: Elcert-goal of 28.4 TWh: Exactly fulfilled LRMC for wind power 55-56 /MWh, assumed unchanged until 2035 All investors follow normal behaviour In case of oversupply: Regulators may cancel more elcertificates to bring up prices Level of extra volumes to be cancelled can adjust elcert price levels In case of undersupply: Elcert-prices will generate investment signals, new capacity can be developed in Sweden after 2020 (but with less than 15 years of support) Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 45

Wind power costs a historical view In 2010-11 LRMC for wind power was 80-85 /MWh In end 2014 LRMC for wind power was 55 /MWh, now 50 /MWh What happened on the way 2010-15: Lower price for metals: steel Moving production of wind mills from Europe to China/Asia Technological development: Bigger wind mills, optimized wings, removal of gear-systems, industrialized building of wind parks Lower interest rates -> lower LRMC If this development do not stop: difficult to see higher elcert prices Our view: it has probably stopped now Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 46

Status elcert-prosjekter April 2015 (ikke-fullstendig) Status utbygd kapasitet: 10.7 TWh Svenske vindprosjekter på vei t.o.m. 2016: 2.5 TWh Fosen/Snillfjord: 3.5 TWh Bjerkreim: 1.6 TWh Ytre Vikna: 0.5 TWh Svensk biokraft 2015-17 1.5 TWh Norsk vannkraft, under bygging: 1.5 TWh Norsk vannkraft, forventes besluttet snart: 1.0 TWh Svenske vindprosjekter 2017-forventning: 1.5 TWh Sum: 24.3 TWh Nytt elcert-mål: 28.4 TWh De manglende 4 TWh vil fylles opp av svenske vindprosjekter og norske vannkraftprosjekter. Med forsterkede pris-signaler kan det bli 5-6 TWh til, hvis norske vindprosjekter skrinlegges Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 47

DnB elcert-project stress test Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 48

Vanskelige tider for elsert-systemet Wednesday, 06. November 2013 www.markedskraft.com 49

This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 50 You have watched a presentation from MKonline Thank you for your attention Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com +47 37 00 97 61 Espen Andreassen Senior Analyst, Continental Analysis ean@mkonline.com +47 37 00 97 71