Klimaendring trussel og mulighet Jens Ulltveit-Moe, CEO og grunnlegger av Umoe April 2011
Manglende handling vil ha alvorlige konsekvenser 2 Source: IPCC
Effekten av klimaendring synes allerede i dag 3 Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Stor enighet om at vi skaper global oppvarming i akademia Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures? A January 2009 poll of more than 3000 earth scientists found that 82 percent of them, regardless of their specialties, agree that human activity is a significant contributor to changing average global temperatures. The consensus is even stronger among active climatologists who publish the majority of their work on climate studies: 97.4 percent agree! This level of consensus is astonishing in a community where reputations are made by proving others wrong 4 Source: Doran, P.T. and M.K. Zimmerman, 2009. Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. Eos: American Geophysical Union Vol. 90, p. 22 23.
5 April 11 Det er meget dyrt å vente
Store forretningsmuligheter med dagens teknologier Carbon cost pr. ton CO2 6 Source: McKinsey, Vattenfall
Umoe fra fossil- til fornybar energi Fossil energi Fornybar energi Ut av PGS 2008-2010 Umoe Solar 2007-2010 Inn i Umoe Bioenergy i 2008 Ut av Umoe Olje & Gass i 2000 Ut av Knutsen Tankers i 2008 7
Sukkerrør mest energieffektivt.. ENERGY OUTPUT/INPUT RATIO The ratio describes units of energy created using 1 unit of energy in production 8,5 Sugarcane ethanol 8.0-9.0 vs. US corn ethanol 1.5-1.8 2,9 2,5 2 2 1,7 1,6 1,2 Sugar cane ethanol Soybean biodiesel Rapeseed biodiesel Palm oil biodiesel Jatropha biodiesel Sugar beets ethanol Corn ethanol Wheat ethanol 8 Source: Goldman Sachs 8
..og mest kostnadseffektivt ESTIMATED COST OF BIOFUELS Compared with the prices of oil and oil products (biofuels exclusive taxes) 2,5 2 1,5 1 Cost winner 0,5 0 Oil Petroleum with tax - US Petroleum with tax - EU Ethanol from maize Ethanol from lignocellulose Biodiesel from vegetable oils Ethanol from sugar cane Low High 9 Source: The Royal Society, Sustainable biofuels, January 2008 9
Klimautfordringen; en forretningsmulighet og et ansvar Norwegian edition with Forskningsrådet 10
Umoe BioEnergy: Investert NOK 2,1 mrd Heleiet sukkerrør bioetanol i Brasil 300 000 mål jord Topp industrianlegg 2,6 mill tonn årlig knusekapasitet 220 mill liter bioetanol årlig Sukkerrør bioetanol reduserer CO2 utslipp med 80% sammenlignet med bensin 11
Umoe Bioenergy Mekanisk høsting en gang i året. Gunstig klima og fruktbar jord i Brasil, kan rørene kuttes 5-6 ganger før nyplanting. På fabrikken knuses sukkerrørene Etter fermentering og destillering er sluttproduktet hydrert etanol Tørrstoffet som er til overs brennes og leverer 60MWh Nok til en by med 100.000 innbyggere 12
1% arable land displaces more than 50% of gasoline 13 April 11 Source: UNICA
Solar er fremtiden.. Ubegrenset energipotensiale Suverent størst på FoU 14
Average household electricity price in /kwh men er ikke konkurransedyktig uten subsidier enda 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 Installed PV-system price 2.50 / Wp Italy Hawaii Grid Parity 0.20 Germany Portugal 0.15 California 0.10 France Spain Australia 0.05 Taiwan Greece India Texas bubble size = market size 0.00 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 Sun Irradiation [kwh/m²/year] 15 Source: www.centrotherm.com
Umoe Solar store planer Topp, internasjonalt prosjektteam Fremskredne planer for bygging av 5 000 tonn polysilisiumanlegg i Canada Total investeringsramme på $ 750 mill Skrinlangt i 2010 16
Greenfiled var billigst, men nå er poly kapasitet billigst på børs REC aksjekurs 2008 2008 2011 2011 Greenfield CAPEX/kg polysilisium 17 Sources: www.recgroup.com; Umoe research
Kineserne kommer.. Geographical distribution of solar panel supply 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 4 % 4 % 5 % 6 % 7 % 4 % 11 % 8 % 7 % 7 % 6 % 7 % 20 % 24 % 21 % 18 % 17 % 15 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 33 % 36 % 42 % 45 % 47 % 50 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % 32 % 28 % 25 % 24 % 23 % 24 % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Other North America Japan China Europe 18 Sources: EPIA; Solarbuzz
Lærdom Klimatrusselen er reell Gode investeringsmuligheter i fornybar energi allerede i dag Fornybar energi er ikke annerledes enn andre bransjer; kostnadsfordel er nøkkelen til suksess Uten reell kostnadsfordel løper man stor politisk risiko 19
20 April 11 Backup
The planet is getting cooler 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 21 April 11 Source: Anomalies 1998-2008; University of Alabama (UAH)
But only since 1998 which was the hottest year in history due to a strong El Nino 1998: 22 April 11 Source: Economist
Changes to distribution of gases in atmosphere do impact Earth temperature The last major volcanic eruption, Mount Pinatubo in 1991, released 20 megaton of sulfur dioxide Earth surface was temporarily cooled by an astonishing 0,3-0,4 C over the next two years 23 Source: Bjerknes Centre for Climate Reasearch
Energy-related emissions account for ~60% of total GHG emissions Hence, making utilities greener is paramount 24 April 11
Fossil fuels must be replaced by renewable energy 25 April 11 Source: IEA