Sikringsmuligheter i urolige markeder. Sotra 17. februar 2015 Eirik Kronstad Johnsen og Bjørn Lisøy, DNB Markets, Bergen

Sikringsmuligheter i urolige markeder Sotra 17. februar 2015 Eirik Kronstad Johnsen og Bjørn Lisøy, DNB Markets, Bergen 1

Vinnere og tapere i 2014 Mens første halvår var et stort gjesp lå vi våkne i hele andre halvår 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% Valutamarkedet Indeksbasert. 2014 (YTD) NOK USD EUR GBP SEK 12.56% 3.41% 7.74% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% Gull Kobber Aluminium Råolje CRB -0.85% Råvaremarkedet 2014 (YTD) 3.39% 0.00% -20.00% -14.38% -16.43% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -9.55% -5.74% -30.00% -40.00% -50.00% -46.34% Obligasjonsmarkedet (10yr) endring i prosentpoeng. 2014 (YTD) Aksjer 2014 (YTD) 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% -2.00% 10 yr US 10 yr EU 10 yr NO 10 yr GR -0.83% -1.40% -1.10% 1.06% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% 11.39% 7.12% 4.95% 2.90% 2.93% S&P 500 Nikkei 225 OSEBX Stoxx50 MSCI World -1.83% MSCI EM 2

Også nyhetsbildet ble mer og mer negativt i fjor: økonomisk, politisk, ute og ikke minst hjemme! 3

Økonomiene på rett vei. Men: Mange har ennå ikke tatt igjen det tapte 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10 BNP, sesongjustert Prosentvis endring siden 2008Q1-15 Q1 2008 Q1 2011 Q1 2014 Q1 2017 USA EZ-kj. PIIGS Japan UK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Arbeidsledighet Prosent av arbeidsstyrken 0 Dec-04 Dec-09 Dec-14 USA ØMU Japan UK Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

USA oppe i marsjfart rundt 3% Drahjelp fra billigere olje. Venter fortsatt på lønnsveksten 10 USA: BNP, inflasjon & ledighet Prosent 2 USA: Ledighetsgap og lønnsvekst Prosent 5 5 0-5 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 4 3 2 1-10 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 BNP k/k sjår Ledighet KPI å/å Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets -5 0 Q4 1984 Q4 1994 Q4 2004 Q4 2014 Ledighetsgap Lønnskostnader (ECI), å/å (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

Mange spør seg: Hvilke av de store industrilandene skal nå trekke lasset...? Og trolig må vi igjen sette vår lit til de fremvoksende økonomiene Kuttes stimulansene for tidlig? Full oppbremsing i boligmarkedet Pengetrykking uten effekt? Eksporten bremser Svekket produksjon og eksport Tar fortsatt ikke nødvendige grep 6

Drar lønnsvekst og kjerneinflasjon ned 1-2% lønnsvekst er normalen rundt oss. 6 Lønn År/år i pst. Noen av seriene er glattet 4 Kjerneinflasjon Prosentvis endring år/år 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 0-1 Q3 2004 Q3 2009 Q3 2014 USA ØMU UK Sverige Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 1 0 Dec-04 Dec-09 Dec-14 USA Eurosonen UK Sverige Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

Kjerneinflasjon i Norge. (KPI-JAE) Sentralbanken styrer etter ett inflasjonsmålet på 2,5%. Markets 8

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Investeringene på vei ned. Totale realinvesteringer i prosent av BNP. Markets 10

Hvorfor er investeringene lave? Noen momenter Høye investeringer før finanskrisen, særlig i boligmarkedet Ledig produksjonskapasitet og svakere vekstutsikter Usikkerhet om den økonomiske utviklingen Stramme lånevilkår i mange europeiske land Mindre tro på lønnsom vekst i vestlige økonomier Arbeidsstyrken vokser saktere. Demografiske trekk er negative. Deflasjons «Spøkelse»? 11

Lik det eller ikke; Norge ER et oljeland! Prisfallet bekymrer fordi oljens betydning for norsk økonomi er formidabel. På godt og vondt!...som andel av BNP 2013 25% Petroleum 75% BNP utenom petroleum...som andel av investeringene 2013...som andel av samlet eksport 2013 69% 31% Petroleum Investeringer utenom olje 48% 52% Petroleum Eksport utenom petroleum og hver tiende arbeidsplass i Norge er enten direkte, eller indirekte, knyttet til petroleumssekto 12

De seneste investeringstellingene var illevarslende? stimulansene går fra kraftig positive til mildt negative 250.0 Oljeinvesteringer Milliarder NOK 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 13

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Tanker om å gjenerobre den amerikanske drømmen. A nation that can't control its energy sources can't control its future. USA har tre prosent av verdens oljereserver. Vi bruker 25 prosent av verdens oljeproduksjon. Vi kan ikke bare bore oss ut av problemet Vi må samtidig se på muligheten for å bruke alternativ energi og bygge mindre og mer drivstoffeffektive biler og fly. Markets 15

US Crude Production Back On The Rise The Shale Revolution - After more than 20 years of steep production decline, US production is rising again Million b/d Million b/d 11.0 US Monthly Crude Oil Production 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Jan-60 Jan-67 Jan-74 Jan-81 Jan-88 Jan-95 Jan-02 Jan-09 Source: US DOE 16

Cars Markets 17

Even A 25% Reduction In Activity Will Provide Further Growth - Even reducing the number of well additions by 25% will not lead to reduced production Monthly well additions Million b/d 250 Bakken - Monthly Well Additions 6-month moving average 1.8 1.6 Modelled Bakken Crude Oil Production Decline rate pr well: 81% the first three years, thereafter 2.4% per year - 150 new wells/month (forward looking) - IP rate 390 b/d 200 1.4 150 1.2 1.0 100 50 0 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission, DNB Markets 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Accumulated production start up 29,094 90,324 254,904 435,864 721,344 1,193,634 1,885,104 2,584,764 3,382,314 4,084,314 4,786,314 5,488,314 6,190,314 6,892,314 7,594,314 Net production end of year 9,406 50,743 138,168 187,700 296,462 503,265 732,144 876,721 1,069,120 1,154,493 1,260,856 1,370,825 1,480,144 1,586,868 1,691,059 Accumulated decline 19,688 39,581 116,736 248,164 424,882 690,369 1,152,960 1,708,043 2,313,194 2,929,821 3,525,458 4,117,489 4,710,170 5,305,446 5,903,255 Yearly start up 29,094 61,230 164,580 180,960 285,480 472,290 691,470 699,660 797,550 702,000 702,000 702,000 702,000 702,000 702,000 Total yearly production decline 19,688 19,893 77,155 131,428 176,718 265,487 462,591 555,083 605,151 616,627 595,637 592,031 592,681 595,276 597,809 Decline vs new start up 68% 32% 47% 73% 62% 56% 67% 79% 76% 88% 85% 84% 84% 85% 85% Yearly net production increase 41,337 87,425 49,532 108,762 206,803 228,879 144,577 192,399 85,373 106,363 109,969 109,319 106,724 104,191 18

Familien Bakken er nå synlig fra verdensrommet NASA-bildet som viser Bakken-feltet i Nord-Dakota sett fra verdensrommet. En lang vei for Otto & Mary Bakken, som kom fra fattige kår i Norge til USA i 1880-årene. De fikk 13 barn, bl.a. Henry, som drev gården da feltet ble oppdaget. På bildet ses Henry (bak, 51) med bror Harry (48) og mor Mary (83). Mer alvorlig: Skiferoljefeltene fakler nå nok gass til å forsyne alle hjem i Chicago og Washington med energi. USAs gassfakling tredoblet på fem år, bl.a. pga. lave gasspriser, som gjør utbygging av infrastruktur ulønnsomt.

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The Saudi Royal Family (Source Wikipedia) Abdul Aziz (Ibn Saud) King: 1902-1953 Founded Saudi Arabia in 1932 22 wives (4 at a time) 45 sons of which 5 have been kings King Saud King: 1953-1964 Forced out Crown Price Sultan Died 23.10.2011 King Faisal King: 1964-1975 Killed Crown Price Naif Ultra conservative Died 16.06.2012 King Khalid King: 1975-1982 Heart Attack King Fahad King: 1982-2005 Stroke New Crown Price Salman 25 th son of Ibn Saud Defence Minister Well regarded Trusted mediator Had a stroke in 2010 King Abdullah King: 2005- Regent since 1995 Unifying and popular 6 sons 21

Hva påvirker den norske kronen? Handlingsparametrene er mange: - Rentedifferansen - Finanspolitikken - Volatiliteten - Risikoappetitten - Ordrestrømmene - Oljeprisen - Børsutviklingen - Grunnbalansen - Kjøpene til oljefondet - Markedets posisjonering - Oppkjøp og fusjoner - Den svenske kronen - EURUSD-kursen - Tekniske signaler (charts) - Data-trading Er valutakursbevegelsene forutsigbare? Markets 22

Sikringsmuligheter i Valuta Termin - instrumenter - plikt - tosidig risiko - striken kan ikke velges Opsjons - instrumenter - rett - ensidig risiko - premie - striken kan velges Markets 23

EKSTERNE SIKRINGSMULGHETER Opplåning/plassering på balansen Finansielle instrumenter Terminforretninger Opsjoner Swapper Fleksibel Termin Ved valg av INSTRUMENT/LØSNING er det viktig å vurdere reelle sikringseffekter, regnskapmessige effekter og likviditetseffekter ved de alternative løsningene! Markets 24

Hva er renter? Rente er kostnad for å leie kapital. Historien om dagens rentemodell starter i: Standardisering av renten The mother of every reference rate: LIBOR

NIBOR er en kopi av LIBOR. Norwegian Interbank Offered Rate er den mest brukte referanserenten i penge og kredittmarkedet. Det er blant annet grunnlag for en rekke utlånsrenter fra offentlige banker. NIBOR er basert på swaprenter fordi markedet for usikrede lån i norske kroner mellom norske kroner er lite både med tanke på omsetning og aktuelle deltakere. Renten fastsettes ved gjennomsnittet av daglige rentebud fra de seks største bankene. NB! NIBOR Brukes også som forkortelse for: New York Interbank Offered Rate Nigerian Interbank Offered Rate. 26

Markets 27

<Agenda> NIBOR 3m og RSW 10 år <Footer> 28

Lange renter har gått i «kjelleren» NIBOR 3 mnd 1,40% Fastrente via Rentebytteavtale (RSW) : - 5 år 1,35 % Bullet (uten avdrag) - 10 år 1,82% Bullet (uten avdrag) - 5 år 1,33% 25 års struktur til 0-10 år 1,75 % 25 års struktur til 0 17.02.2015

LØPETID Forwardmatrise START SPOT 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 1Y 1.22 % 1.12 % 1.27 % 1.56 % 1.84 % 2.06 % 2.35 % 2.55 % 2.75 % 2.87 % 3.14 % 2Y 1.16 % 1.17 % 1.38 % 1.65 % 1.89 % 2.13 % 2.36 % 2.55 % 2.70 % 2.88 % 2.86 % 3Y 1.18 % 1.27 % 1.50 % 1.75 % 1.99 % 2.21 % 2.42 % 2.58 % 2.76 % 2.78 % 2.79 % 4Y 1.26 % 1.39 % 1.61 % 1.86 % 2.09 % 2.29 % 2.48 % 2.65 % 2.72 % 2.75 % 2.78 % 5Y 1.35 % 1.50 % 1.72 % 1.96 % 2.17 % 2.36 % 2.55 % 2.64 % 2.70 % 2.75 % 2.79 % 6Y 1.45 % 1.61 % 1.83 % 2.05 % 2.25 % 2.44 % 2.56 % 2.64 % 2.71 % 2.76 % 2.75 % 7Y 1.55 % 1.71 % 1.92 % 2.13 % 2.33 % 2.46 % 2.57 % 2.65 % 2.73 % 2.73 % 2.72 % 8Y 1.65 % 1.81 % 2.01 % 2.22 % 2.36 % 2.48 % 2.59 % 2.68 % 2.70 % 2.71 % 2.71 % 9Y 1.74 % 1.89 % 2.09 % 2.25 % 2.39 % 2.51 % 2.62 % 2.66 % 2.69 % 2.70 % 2.71 % 10Y 1.82 % 1.98 % 2.14 % 2.29 % 2.42 % 2.54 % 2.61 % 2.65 % 2.68 % 2.70 % 2.71 % 30

Markets 31

Markets 32

NOK 10 års rentebytteavtale. Daily QNOKAB6O10Y= Line; QNOKAB6O10Y=; Ask(Last); Merging real-time updates 16.02.2015; 1.8350; +0.0150; (+0.85%) 25.05.2012-09.04.2015 (GMT) Price NOK 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8350 1.8 j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Markets Auto 33

<Agenda> Daily QUSDAM3L10Y= USD RSW 10 år Line; QUSDAM3L10Y=; Ask(Last); Merging real-time updates 16.02.2015; 2.1610; +0.0140; (+0.66%) 25.05.2012-09.04.2015 (GMT) j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Price USD 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1610 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 Auto <Footer> 34

<Agenda> EUR RSW 10 år Daily QEURAB6E10Y= Line; QEURAB6E10Y=; Bid(Last) 16.01.2015; 0.6900; -0.0095; (-1.36%) 26.04.2007-11.03.2015 (GMT) Price EUR 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0.9 0.6900 Auto <Footer> 35

DNB Markets renteprognoser Styringsrente 22-Jan-15 1 mnd Apr-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 USA: Fed Funds 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.75 Japan: Dag-til-dag 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Euroland: Repo 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.25 UK: Bank rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.25 Sverige: Repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.75 1.75 Norge: Folio 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 2.25 Sveits: 3M Libor CHF -0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75 Tre mndr 22-Jan-15 1 mnd Apr-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 USA 0.26 0.25 0.35 0.65 1.15 2.20 3.20 3.95 Japan 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 Euroland 0.06 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.45 Storbritannia 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.55 1.05 1.90 2.90 3.40 Sverige 0.18 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.00 2.00 Norge 1.36 1.45 1.35 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.75 2.50 Sveits -0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75 10 år swap 22-Jan-15 1 mnd Apr-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 USA 2.06 2.25 2.25 2.75 3.25 3.75 4.00 3.75 Japan 0.52 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 Euroland 0.84 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 Storbritannia 1.65 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 3.25 Sverige 1.14 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.25 2.50 3.00 Norge 1.81 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.50 3.00 3.50 Sveits -0.11 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 36

EURNOK Daily QEURNOK= Line; QEURNOK=; Bid(Last) 16.02.2015; 8.6083; -0.0293; (-0.34%) 23.10.2014-20.02.2015 (GMT) Price NOK 9.25 9.2 9.15 9.1 9.05 9 8.95 8.9 8.85 8.8 8.75 8.7 8.65 8.6083 8.55 8.5 8.45 8.4 8.35 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 okt 14 november 2014 desember 2014 januar 2015 februar 2015 Markets Auto 37

<Agenda> USDNOK Daily QNOK= Line; QNOK=; Ask(Last) 16.02.2015; 7.5518-0.0390; (-0.51%) 14.08.2014-25.02.2015 (GMT) Price /USD 7.6 7.5518 7.4 7.2 7 6.8 6.6 6.4 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 aug 14 sep 14 okt 14 nov 14 des 14 jan 15 feb 15 6.2 Auto <Footer> 38

EURUSD Daily QEUR= Line; QEUR=; Ask(Last) 16.02.2015; 1.1404; +0.0020; (+0.18%) 14.08.2014-25.02.2015 (GMT) Price USD 1.32 1.3 1.28 1.26 1.24 1.22 1.2 1.18 1.16 1.1404 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 aug 14 sep 14 okt 14 nov 14 des 14 jan 15 feb 15 Auto Markets 39

DNB Markets valutaprognoser Valutakurs 22-Jan-15 1 mnd Apr-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 USDJPY 117.5 120 122 124 125 130 135 140 EURUSD 1.16 1.18 1.15 1.13 1.13 1.15 1.20 1.25 EURGBP 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.78 0.82 0.84 EURDKK 7.44 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 EURSEK 9.43 9.50 9.40 9.20 9.00 8.96 8.91 8.87 EURNOK 8.86 9.00 8.80 8.60 8.40 8.25 8.10 7.90 EURCHF 0.99 0.99 0.98 1.00 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.15 USDCNY 6.21 6.12 6.11 6.08 6.00 5.85 5.70 5.56 Kalkulerte prognoser 22-Jan-15 1 mnd Apr-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 SEKNOK 93.94 94.74 93.62 93.48 93.33 92.13 90.91 89.11 USDNOK 7.62 7.63 7.65 7.61 7.43 7.17 6.75 6.32 GBPNOK 11.57 11.54 11.28 11.17 11.05 10.58 9.88 9.40 JPYNOK 6.48 6.36 6.27 6.14 5.95 5.52 5.00 4.51 DKKNOK 119 121 118 115 113 111 109 106 CHFNOK 891 909 898 860 800 763 727 689 NOKTWI 111.00 112.6 110.6 108.8 106.9 104.2 101.1 97.7 I44 103.51 105.0 103.1 101.5 99.6 97.2 94.2 91.1 40

Takk for oppmerksomheten! Noen steder er det optimisme. 41

Important/Disclaimer This note (the Note ) must be seen as marketing material and not as an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 2007 paragraph 3-10 and the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation 2007/06/29 no. 876. The Note has been prepared by DNB Markets, a division of DNB Bank ASA, a Norwegian bank organized under the laws of the Kingdom of Norway (the Bank ), for information purposes only. The Note shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. The Bank, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (individually, each a DNB Party ; collectively, DNB Parties ) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Note. 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We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may have interests in any products referred to in the Note by acting in various roles including as distributor, holder of principal positions, adviser or lender. We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities. In addition, we, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may buy or sell products as principal or agent and may effect transactions which are not consistent with the information set out in the Note. Additional Information, including for Recipients in the In the United States: The Note does not constitute an offer to sell or buy a security and does not include information, opinions, or recommendations with respect to securities of an issuer or an analysis of a security or an issuer; rather, it is a market letter, as the term is defined in NASD Rule 2211.

Husholdningenes gjeld i prosent av BNP Kilder: BIS og OECD Markets 43

Norge: Anslag Lavere vekst, høyere ledighet Makroøkonomiske nøkkeltall. Norge Endring fra oktober pp. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 Privat forbruk 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7-0.5-0.7-0.2-0.5 Offentlig forbruk 1.7 3.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.0 Oljeinvesteringer 17.1-0.3-15.0-10.0-5.0 5.0-0.1 0.0-5.0 0.0 Fastlandsinvesteringer 2.9 1.8-0.3 1.3 2.3 3.4 1.7 0.0-0.2-0.1 Trad. vareeksport 1.0 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 1.5 0.9-1.7-2.0 Trad. vareimport 3.2 0.7-0.8 1.6 3.3 5.8 1.4-0.2-2.3-1.5 BNP 0.7 2.2 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1-0.2-0.2 - Fastlands-Norge 2.3 2.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.5 0.3-0.2-0.3-0.2 Sysselsetting 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.1-0.2-0.3-0.2 Arbeidsledighet (AKU) 3.5 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 Årslønn 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.1 0.0-0.1-0.1 0.0 Konsumpriser 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.9-0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 KPI-JAE 1.6 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.9-0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 Sparerate 7.8 8.9 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1-0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 Boligpris 4.9 2.3 2.1-2.0 0.0 2.0 0.2 0.1-1.0-1.0 3m NIBOR 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.7-0.1-0.3-0.7-0.9 Oljepris (USD/fat) 109 102 70 80 85 88 0.0-10.0-5.0-3.0 Oljepris (NOK/fat) 640 643 504 568 587 576 10.2-24.0 15.5 32.1 EURNOK 7.8 8.4 8.6 8.3 8.2 8.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 USDNOK 5.9 6.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets desember 2014

Blir det «bubbles» hvis renten ligge for lavt, for lenge? Markets 45