SKAGEN Kon-Tiki Statusrapport september 2013
Hovedtrekk i september 2013 Vekstmarkedene steg 5,2 prosent i september, mens de utviklede markedene steg 3,0 prosent. Selv om vekstmarkedene gjorde det bedre enn de utviklede markedene i september er forskjellen mellom de to fortsatt 23 prosentpoeng. Mot hele verdensindeksen er forskjellen 20 prosentpoeng. Grunnen til at vekstmarkedene har utviklet seg dårligere er delvis en litt annen vekstdynamikk enn i de utviklede landene. I motsetning til vekstmarkedene har det vært litt flere positive makroøkonomiske overraskelser i de utviklede markedene (spesielt i Europa). Det skal samtidig nevnes at nøkkelindikatorer i vekstmarkedene begynte å peke oppover igjen i september. Det har vært lite selskapsnyheter i september ettersom resultatsesongen er avsluttet for denne gang. Resultatene inn i andre kvartal var stort sett gode for de fleste av våre porteføljeselskaper. På den annen side har vekstmarkedene generelt hatt en litt svakere resultatsesong enn de som operer i utviklede markeder. Vi har sett den samme utviklingen i foregående kvartaler. Inntjeningsforventingene for 2013 stabiliserte seg i september. Den amerikanske sentralbanken planlegger å trappe ned sitt stimulanseprogram og dette har satt i gang en kapitalflukt fra vekstmarkedene. Denne utviklingen har også gitt en skarp korreksjon i vekstmarkedsvalutaer, i tillegg til aksjekursene. Land med driftsunderskudd, slik som Indonesia, Tyrkia og India har hatt spesielt store fall. Etter mye kapital ut av vekstmarkedene de siste seks månedene, var det i september en reversering (stabilisering) til en mer nøytral posisjon. Total kapital ut er fortsatt USD 17 mrd for året. Kinas økonomiske utvikling var usikker i sommer. Myndighetene strammer til på utlån i en økonomi som allerede senker farten fordi de ønsker å promotere rebalansering av økonomien. Den positive nyheten er at de siste indikatorene, slik som PMI, har overrasket positivt igjen. Den største usikkerheten på kort sikt er om politikerne i USA kommer til enighet om gjeldstaket. 1
Hovedtrekk i september 2013 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki gjorde det dårligere enn referanseindeksen i september. Fondet steg 4,7 prosent mens MSCI sin vekstmarkedsindeks økte 5,2 prosent. Så langt i år er SKAGEN Kon-Tiki opp 11,4 prosent, noe som er mye bedre enn referanseindeksen som er opp 3,6 prosent i samme periode. Sistema, Hyundai Motor, Sabanci og Banrisul var beste bidragsytere i september. Orascom Construction, Samsung Electronics og LG Electronics var de største negative bidragsyterne. Vi la ikke til noen nye posisjoner i september, men fortsatte å øke i den brasilianske kjøttprodusenten Marfrig og østerrikske Raiffeisen Bank, som begge var nye i august. Vi økte også i Haitong, X5 og Vale samtidig som vi deltok i en plassering i Frontline 2012. Vi solgte oss ut av Bangkok Bank, Immofinanz og Vinda International (etter bud). SKAGEN Kon-Tikis portefølje er fortsatt attraktivt priset både på absolutt og relativ basis. De 35 største postene har en vektet pris/inntjening for 2013e på 7,0x mot 11,1x for indeksen, samt pris/bok på 1,0x mot 1,5x for indeksen. Vi ser en vektet oppside på 49 prosent for de 35 største postene (som nå utgjør 75 prosent av porteføljen). Vekstmarkedene handles nå til en stor rabatt mot de utviklede markedene, også sett i forhold til det historiske gjennomsnittet. Dette gir gode kjøpsmuligheter for dem som har et lengre perspektiv og kan se gjennom kortsiktige svingninger. Men, på grunn av store forskjeller mellom land, slik som BRIC, Indonesia og Sør-Korea for å nevne noen, mener vi at det begrenset nytte for oss som investorer å fortsette og kategorisere verden gjennom en vekstmarkedslinse. 2
Avkastning, september 2013 September 3. kvartal Hittil i år 1 år 3 år 5 år 10 år Siden start* SKAGEN Kon Tiki 4,7% 6,7% 11,4% 12,5% 2,9% 10,8% 18,5% 16,5% EM indeks (NOK) 5,2% 5,0% 3,6% 6,4% 0,5% 7,7% 11,0% 8,5% Meravkastning -0,4% 1,7% 7,8% 6,0% 2,4% 3,1% 7,5% 8,0% Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning) *Startdato: 5 april 2002 3
SKAGEN Kon-Tiki har gjort det bedre enn indeksen i 11 av 12 år så langt er 2013 nok et år med meravkastning Prosent 103 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki* (NOK) MSCI EM Index (NOK) 50 59 49 63 48 32 14 23 22 23 21 21 19 6 10 11 4-14-16-30-33-36 -40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD *Startdato: 5 april 2002 4
Vekstmarkeder i september 2013 Prosent Tyrkia Brasil India Thailand Russland Egypt Sør Afrika Vekstmarkedsindeksen Sør Korea SKAGEN KON-TIKI Chile Singapore Hong Kong Kina (Internasjonal) Polen Industrialiserte markeder Vietnam Filippinene Malaysia Kenya Kina (lokal) Taiwan Mexico USA Nigeria Indonesia Ghana Pakistan -3-1 -1 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 7 8 8 9 10 11 5
Vekstmarkeder hittil i år Prosent Ghana Nigeria Vietnam Kenya USA Industrialiserte markeder Taiwan Hong Kong SKAGEN KON-TIKI Filippinene Malaysia Kina (lokal) Singapore Thailand Sør Korea Sør Afrika Egypt Russland Vekstmarkedsindeksen Polen Kina (Internasjonal) Mexico India Tyrkia Indonesia Chile Brasil -15-7 -8-9 -4-1 16 13 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 31 30 30 27 40 61 6
Største bidragsytere, september i 2013 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap NOK (m) Sistema 236 Hyundai Motor 152 Sabanci 138 Banrisul 126 ABB 114 Mahindra 106 Great Wall Motor 104 Bharti 102 Yingli 102 Cosan 98 Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK (m) OCI -114 Samsung Electronics -93 LG Electronics -48 Aveng -36 Ranbaxy -29 China Shineway -24 VTB -21 CNH Industrial -17 Marfrig -16 REC -16 Total verdiskapning i september 2013: 2 105 MNOK Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 7
Største bidragsytere så langt i 2013 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap NOK (m) Hyundai Motor 1,638 Great Wall Motor 1,252 Sistema 529 Naspers 360 Samsung Electronics 328 ABB 324 Baker Hughes 301 AP Møller Maersk 297 DIA 223 Yingli 183 Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK (m) State Bank of India -415 Indosat -310 Vale -279 Hon Hai Precision -174 Mahindra -135 VTB Bank -128 Aveng -116 Ranbaxy -103 Eurasian Natural Resources -85 Ipek -73 Total verdiskapning i september 2013: 4 939 MNOK Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 8
Største kjøp og salg i september 2013 Kjøp Marfrig Den nest største kjøttprodusenten i Brasil og nummer fire globalt. Selskapet har operasjoner i Brasil, Uruguay og Argentina. Selskapet har vært svært forgjeldet, men salget av fjærkre/svinevirksomheten i Brasil har styrket balansen. Raffaisen Bank Vi kjøpte oss inn på lave verdsettelser og på et tidspunkt med gode signaler fra europeiske økonomier. Frontline 2012 Vi deltok i en plassering i september. Haitong Securities Vi fortsatte å øke posisjonen fordi vi mener at selskapet vil være en av de som vil tjene på reformer innen kinesisk bank og finans. Salg Vinda International (ut) Vil solgte oss ut etter et bud fra SCA. Budet var 38% over siste kurs før budet, og verdsatte selskapet til 19x 2013/14e P/E. Immofinanz (ut) Posten ble solgt fordi mange av hoved katalysatorene for omvurdering hadde inntruffet, og de siste har nå mindre fokus. Bangkok Bank (ut) Posten ble solgt på grunn av bekymring rundt kapitalflyt i ASEAN-land og fordi verdsettelsen har kommet opp på et nivå hvor vi ser mer oppside hos andre selskaper i sektoren (blant annet Raiffeisen Bank). X5 Retail Vi fortsatte å øke posten på lav verdsettelse og at vi så smått har sett tegn til at omstruktureringen i selskapet går i riktig retning. 9
Viktigste endringer så langt i 2013 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q1 Q2 Ranbaxy (ny) Citigroup (ny) X5 (ny) Kardemir (ny) CCU (ny) Apollo Tyres (ny) Pharmstandard (ny) Vietnam Enterprise Investments (ny) State Bank of India Tullow Oil VTB AP Møller Kinnevik (ny) LG Chem (ny) Q1 Q2 China Mobile (ut) Seadrill (ut) Petrobras (ut) Eletrobras (ut) Hon Hai Hanmi Baker Hughes Aberdeen AM Aberdeen AM (ut) YuYu Pharma (ut) Thai Beverage (ut) Mariupol (ut) Baker Hughes Hanmi Hon Hai (ut) Gazprom IPEKE (ut) Kardemir (ut) Citigroup (ut) 10
Viktigste endringer så langt i 2013 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q3 OCI Company (ny) GCL-Poly Energy (ny) Kinnevik Marfrig (ny) Raiffeisen Bank (ny) State Bank of India Haitong Securities X 5 Retail Group Frontline 2012 Q3 ENRC (ut) China Ting (ut) Hanmi Pharm (ut) Pharmstandard (ut) Park Elektric (ut) Baker Hughes (ut) Dryships (ut) Coal of Africa (ut) Bangkok Bank (ut) Vinda (ut) Immofinanz (ut) HSBC Baker Hughes 11
Største poster SKAGEN Kon-Tiki pr september 2013 Postens Pris P/E P/E P/BV Div. yield Kurs Oppside størrelse. % 2013e 2014e siste 13e. % mål % Hyundai Motor 8,9 108 000 3,1 2,7 0,6 2,0 165 000 53 Samsung Electronics 7,5 876 000 4,2 3,7 1,0 1,1 1 500 000 71 Great Wall Motor 5,1 42,1 11,6 9,3 4,2 2,6 52,0 24 Sistema 3,8 26,0 10,4 10,4 1,3 3,2 32,0 23 ABB 3,2 151 15,1 11,6 3,2 4,4 180 19 Sabanci Holding 2,8 9,8 7,8 7,0 1,2 1,5 12,0 23 AP Moller-Maersk 2,6 50 550 10,8 8,9 1,0 2,7 60 000 19 Vale 2,5 31,7 5,8 5,8 1,0 7,3 55,0 73 Richter Gedeon 2,4 3 800 12,7 11,5 1,3 1,8 5 000 32 Naspers 2,2 928,4 35,0 29,0 6,8 0,5 1 000,0 8 Gazprom 2,1 8,8 2,9 2,9 0,4 5,1 20,0 127 Bharti Airtel 2,1 319 21,2 13,3 2,2 0,3 450 41 Weighted top 12 45 5,8 5,1 1,0 2,5 45 Weighted top 35 75 7,0 6,2 1,0 2,5 49 Emerging market index 11,2 9,9 1,5 2,8 Top 35 @ target prices 10,5 9,2 1,5 12
Sektor og geografisk fordeling mot indeks Sektor Energi Råvarer Kapitalvarer, service og transport Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer Defensive konsumvarer 12 7 10 5 6 9 9 12 15 23 Geografisk Asia ex Japan EMEA 0 Frontier Markets 4 0 Kjerne EU 5 16 22 42 Indeks Fond 62 Medisin Bank og finans Informasjonsteknologi Telekom Nyttetjenester Kontanter 2 4 3 0 0 1 9 8 8 16 15 27 Nord Amerika Norge Perifer EU Sør Amerika Kontanter 0 2 0 5 2 10 8 0 1 20 13
Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper på engelsk 14
Key earnings releases and corporate news, September 2013 Hyundai Motor (8.9% weight) September sales decline 2% YoY on temporary strike, potential upside to FY13 conservative guidance Summary: Unit sales declined 2% YoY to 363,970 which brings year-to-date figure to 3,492,705 units or +10% YoY. Korea plant sales (31% of total in September) declined 24% YoY. This was due to two less production days in September (timing of Chusok holiday) versus last year and 4 days partial strike (versus none last year). Overseas production remains robust at +13% YoY. Implications for investment case: Management provided a conservative FY13 guidance of 4.65m units (+5% YoY). This implies 8% decline YoY for 4Q13. This is clearly too conservative in our view and management stated that 4Q output from Korean plants will be strong with full utilization and more overtime, as labor issues are now settled. Assuming 6% growth for 4Q13, FY13 output growth would be 9%. With a more refreshed model portfolio into 2014, especially in the US where matured models have forced HMC to increase incentives recently, outlook for next year seems promising. The biggest risk is a sustained strong depreciation of JPY. Sistema (3.8% weight): 2Q13 results show strong cash flows Summary: Revenues increased 6.7% YoY to USD 8.5bn, driven by solid Bashneft performance, higher data revenues at MTS, and profitable store expansion at Detsky Mir. EBITDA grew 9.4% to USD 2.1bn. Headline net income was USD 528m vs. a net loss of USD 163m a year earlier. Excluding one-offs, net income fell 8.1% YoY to USD 345m, mainly because of foreign exchange losses. Cash flow was very strong in the quarter, driven by sale of two stakes in SG-trans, which brought in USD 430m, and the announced sale of RussNeft for USD 1.2bn, which will be reflected in 3Q13. Sistema group s capex spend decreased 22% YoY to USD 805m due to reduced investment programme at MTS. Net debt at the holding company level stood at USD 1.4bn on June 30 (of 70% of debt in RUB and 27% in EUR). The company announced the acquisition of the petrochemical operation from Bashneft for RUB 6.2bn (USD 196m, a small investment for Sistema with market cap. of USD 12bn. It is the company s first investment into this sector. Implications for investment case: The restructuring and asset/stake sales show that Sistema is serious about returning cash to the holding company. They also signaled that the transactions will have substantial benefit on dividends, a clear positive for us as shareholders. At a significant discount to NAV of almost 50%, despite attractive underlying assets and good prospects for further value creation, we consider Sistema a very attractive investment. 15
Key earnings releases and corporate news, September 2013 (continued) VTB (1.9% weight): RCL (1.7% weight): 2Q13 result disappointing on headline, but positive operational drivers Summary: 2Q13 net profit of RUB12bn (-24% QoQ, +16% YoY) came in 25% below consensus estimates. The miss was due to higher trading losses (RUB 8bn, mostly attributed to mark-to-market losses of a bank scheduled to be sold shortly) and provisions (+30% QoQ. A 20bps NIM expansion to 4.3% despite continued cost pressure with term deposit cost +40bps is positive, as lending mix shifted into retail with higher loan yields. Retail loans grew 10% QoQ versus corporate +5.5%. Also, fee income growth of 23% YoY/17% QoQ, with cost growth contained to 18% YoY/-2% QoQ was also respectable. NPL increased 10 bp QoQ to 5.5% in 2Q13. Implications for investment case: 1H13 net profit of RUB 28bn compared to full year guidance of RUB 100bn (consensus at RUB 95bn) means VTB is expecting a big improvement in 2H13. Guidance does not include any gain from the sale of Tele2 Russia (most likely to be sold beginning of next year). It is encouraging that they appear confident that 2H13 will be better than 1H13 (on the back of firmer NIM (>4%) and fee income growth, lower CoR and derisking of their trading portfolio). However, there is a risk that management may not achieve their targets, this is reflected in lower consensus earnings. VTB is in a comfortable position with tier 1 at 11%. The stock trades at P/BV of 0.6x and hence the current risks seems priced in. Dividend more than doubles, positive governance steps Summary: RCL announced it will hike its quarterly dividend from USD 12c to USD 25c. The hike comes on the back of 1) ongoing profitability improvement program (targets flat ex. fuel cruise costs in 2014), 2) improved financial position (net debt/ebitda LTM down from 5.5 to 5.1 past two quarters) and 3) growing confidence to grow investment return due to modest capacity growth (industry supply growth sub 4% p.a. next 4 years versus +6% average 2000 to 2011 with RCL at 2.3% p.a. for 2012-2015). RCL also changes procedure on board member election now putting all board members up for election every year versus only 1/3 up for election up to now. It also elected a William L. Kimsey, former CEO of Ernst & Young Global, Ltd to take a role as mediator between non-executive board members and CEO. Implications for investment case: We view this as very positive news. Yield will increase from 1.1 to 2.5%, making it a decent yielder, at least in a US equity perspective (S&P 500 yield is 2.1%). Governance changes, although small steps, is in the right direction and proves that CEO and Chairman, Richard Fain, has taken some action on criticism. RCL trades at EV/EBITDA of 10.4x for 2013e versus 12.7x for Carnival and 15.3x for NCL. P/BV of 1.0x is a 19% discount to CCL, while its ROE is expected to exceed CCL s in 2014 for the first time since 2005, when RCL briefly traded on par with CCL on P/BV. 16
The largest companies in SKAGEN Kon-Tiki Hyundai Motor is the world's 4th largest car maker, including their 39% stake in Kia Motor. Sold 4.4m cars in 2012 and has a ca. 5% global market share. Focus on smaller/less expensive cars. Strong position in several countries and in emerging markets such as India and China. Samsung Electronics is one of the world's largest producers of consumer electronics, with >155 000 employees. The company is global #1 in mobile phones and smartphones, the world's largest in TV and a global #1 in memory chips. Samsung also produces appliances, cameras, printers, PCs and air-conditioning units. Great Wall Motor is a Chinese car manufacturer with sales of 621,000 units in 2012, up 34% YoY. It has a market share of more than 3.5% in China. Volume is divided between SUV and pick-ups, where it is market leader, as well as sedans. The cars are certified in the EU and Great Wall exports to 120 markets. It has its own engine and transmission production. Sistema is a Russian conglomerate with a focus on telecom and other consumer-related business, in addition to oil. The majority of the value is linked to a 54% holding in MTS, which is Russia's largest mobile phone company with a substantial market and >100m subscribers. The oligarch Vladimir Evtushenkov owns 64%. ABB is a leader in power and automation technologies that enable utility and industry customers to improve performance while lowering environmental impact. The group operates in around 100 countries and employs 146,000 people. 50% of sales stems from emerging market and this share is rapidly increasing. 17
The largest companies in SKAGEN Kon-Tiki (continued) Sabanci is Turkey's leading conglomerate with 57,000 employees in 69 subsidiaries in 18 countries. Its largest asset is a 41% holding in the country's #2 bank, Akbank, which represents more than 50% of NAV. Sabanci also has operations within retail, cement and energy generation. Maersk group is a Danish conglomerate with 4 core businesses which include Maersk Line (container shipping), APM Terminals (global terminal network in 68 countries), Maersk Oil and Maersk Drilling. The company is going through a process of streamlining the business by terminating non-core and underperforming assets. One of the top 3 metals and mining companies in the world; the largest producer of iron ore and iron ore pellets, and the second largest producer of nickel. They also produce manganese, ferroalloys, thermal and coking coal, copper, cobalt, platinum group metals and fertilizer nutrients. Specialty pharmaceutical company headquartered in Hungary. Vertically integrated, involved in manufacturing, research and development, sales and marketing. Employs 11 000 people worldwide, with distribution in more than 100 countries. South-African listed media and internet holding company incorporated in 1915. They have a strong Pay-TV business in South-Africa and Sub-Saharan African countries and a fast growing internet division focused on commerce, communities, content, communication and games. They hold a 34% stake in Chinese Tencent and 29% of Russian Mail.ru. 18
Additional information
2013 anomaly #1: Mind the Gap EM versus DM EM usually outperforms DM in strong equity markets That was not the case in 1H13 However, in September EM outperformed DM 20
2013 anomaly #2: Commodity Markets A strong equity market is normally associated with a strong commodity market This was not the case in 1H13 as commodities were very weak However, we have seen some reversion in 3Q, led by precious metals and energy 21
2013 anomaly #3: Defensives versus Cyclical sectors A strong equity market is normally driven by cyclical sectors That has not been the case in 2013 so far However, we have seen a shift in 3Q 22 22
The equity flow picture has changed in 2013 complete reversal from EM to DM Source: EPFR Global, Country Flows Database, Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of September 25, 2013 23 23
Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 EM consensus estimates for 2013e stabilized in September 20% 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2011 15% 10% 2013E 2014E 2015E 11,7% 9,3% 8,9% 5% 2011 3,3% 0% 2012E -1,7% -5% Source: MS GEM Strategy Team 24 24
EM currencies have fallen sharply against the USD but they bounced back in September 25
The EM/DM divergence continues: the Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) is now heading in the right direction for both EM and DM 26
Inflation flattened off in EM and DM, while policy rates are stable CPI (YoY %) Policy Rates (%) 27 27
EM growth however is stellar compared to DM Regional GDP growth expectations Developed markets 2,0 % 1,1 % 1,4 % World Europe US BRICS Latin-America EMEA Asia China Emerging markets 2,9 % 2,0 % 2,2 % 1,4 % 0,1 % -0,3 % 2,7 % 1,6 % 2,8 % 5,6 % 5,7 % 5,6 % 3,2 % 2,6 % 2,7 % 3,0 % 2,1 % 2,6 % 6,2 % 6,4 % 6,2 % 7,4 % 7,6 % 7,7 % 4,7 % 4,4 % 4,6 % -1 % 1 % 3 % 5 % 7 % 9 % EM s share of world growth is still expected to represent the majority in 2013 and 2014. However, expectations for growth have been coming down slightly over the past few months for EM while DM has come up a little. 2014e 2013e 2012e Source: Bloomberg consensus, 30 September 2013 28
Dec-87 Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 jan.92 jan.93 jan.94 jan.95 jan.96 jan.97 jan.98 jan.99 jan.00 jan.01 jan.02 jan.03 jan.04 jan.05 jan.06 jan.07 jan.08 jan.09 jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 There s now a historical big valuation gap between EM and DM Trailing P/E P/B 35x 30x 25x 20x MSCI EM MSCI World EM historical average 16.1x 4,5x 4,0x 3,5x 3,0x 2,5x 2,0x MSCI EM MSCI World EM historical average 1.9x 2,0x 15x 15,6 1,5x 1,5x 10x 11,4 1,0x 0,5x 5x 0,0x Source: MS GEM Strategy Team No multiple expansion in EM like in DM EM now trading at a large discount compared to DM EM also trading at a large discount compared to historical levels 29 29
Some of Kon-Tiki s «portfolio themes»
Not «theme based» investors, but some themes are still prevalent E- Commerce (3%) State- Owned- Enterprises (9%) Kon- Tiki Solar Energy (4.7%) Preference shares (20%) Auto (17%) 31
Theme 1: Preference shares As of end of August our preference shares (22% of SKT) have contributed NOK 1.7bn in returns (out of the total return of NOK 2.8bn) Will the pref share outperformance continue? - Yield hunt (if you believe in low growth/low yield environment to continue) - Potential for increased dividend payout ratios - Prospects for improved corporate transparency - Increased minority shareholder activism - Preference discounts narrowing from too high a level 32
continued: Preference shares why are they trading at a major discount? The market take Lack of voting rights SKAGEN s view If it is majority owned anyway, does it matter? Lower liquidity Not always, as the free float might be higher in preference shares Lack of transparency (particularly in South Korea with the chaebols) No worse than for the common shares Relatively narrow dividend yield difference At least we are on the right side => Our preference shares are trading at a substantial discount to the ordinary shares. They tend to be less volatile and over time they have shown superior returns.
Theme 2: Low exposure to State Owned Enterprises (SOE). Eletrobras showed us political risk in action, and SOE exposure was reduced. A new type of political risk: rich corporations combined with poor households and governments SOEs (25% of EM float capitalization) now trade at a big discount to private companies in EM (9x versus 15x P/E, compared to EM at 12x) 34
Theme 3: e-commerce 35
e-commerce continued: Our investments KINNEVIK Started buying at SEK170 per share. Listed holdings SEK150 per share. Which meant you got the non-listed (mostly online businesses) almost for free. Online assets: the biggest assets are Zalando, Bigfoot (both online retail) and Avito (leading online classified ads Russia) - Zalando: established in 2008, now the biggest e-commerce company in Europe. 7 new markets entered in 2012. Lossmaking, hence analysts ascribe little value to it. NASPERS Exposure to a range of attractive EM internet companies, with FCF supported by a strong cash-generative Pay-TV business in Africa. Listed assets 95% of market value. Growth likely to pick up as lossmaking businesses turn. Strong market positions. Has spent USD3.5bn on M&A (outside of listed assets) largely on internet assets skewed to e-commerce. Lossmaking, hence analysts ascribe little value to it.
Theme 4: Solar energy exposure through the whole value chain as we believe the industry is at an inflection point % of Poly- Ingot Wafer Cell Module Systems Conportfolio silicon & applic. verters Yingli Green 0,3% small #1 (8.4%)* OCI 0,5% #3/2** GCL-Poly 0,4% #2/1** REC 0,5% #1/5** #8 (2.8%)* ABB 3,0% * 2012 ranking and market share based on annual MW shipments **Ranking based on production cost / capacity (of the majors) 37
continued: Cost of solar is now below retail electricity prices in several markets 38
Ønsker du mer informasjon? For mer informasjon, vennligst se: Siste Markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN Kon-Tiki på våre nettsider For en fyldig statusrapport, inkludert selskapsresultater, se engelske nettsider eller klikk på denne lenken. Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved tegning og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.