Ethnic residential composition and native mobility in the Oslo region: the importance of parenthood. Terje Wessel

Transkript

1 Ethnic residential composition and native mobility in the Oslo region: the importance of parenthood Terje Wessel

2 Questions 1) Are households with children more prone to move out of concentration neighbourhoods than singles and couples without children? 2) Does the pattern of actual mobility correspond to the pattern of mobility motives?

3 «White flight» in the Norwegian context Introduced in a TV film on December 4 th 2006: used as a catchall phrase for large-scale mobility out of Holmlia, a satellite town on the outskirts of Oslo The film was slaughtered both for its quality and its allusion to wide-spread racism in a local community The «white flight» metaphor nevertheless spread to newspapers, journals and electronic media

4 Aftenposten 15. desember 2009: «Ola og Kari flytter fra innvandrerne Mohammad Siddique Akram (37), Stovner Jeg tror nok innvandringen kan være en årsak til at nordmenn flytter ut. Det er veldig mange innvandrere som snakker dårlig norsk, og i enkelte områder er det mange som er hjemmeværende og blir dårlig integrert. Jeg tror jobb er nøkkelen Linda Jakola (44), Stovner Det var kjærligheten som brakte meg hit for fem år siden. Jeg trives, men hører om folk som flytter, og da er det på grunn av innvandrerne. Når det er en klar overvekt av utenlandske barn på skolene, og kulturelle forskjeller som gjør det vanskelig å komme overens, så flytter de. Jeg kan forstå det til en viss grad, men jeg synes det er trist, for da blir jo innvandrerandelen enda høyere. En så høy konsentrasjon som det er enkelte steder er uheldig for mangfoldet, tror jeg. Randi Bjørseth (76), Prinsdal Jeg har bodd på Prinsdal i 37 år, og i min gate er det fremdeles ganske «hvitt». Noen innvandrerfamilier er der, men de oppfører seg fint. Jeg ser det mye tydeligere når jeg kommer ned på Holmlia eller Hauketo, og jeg tror de flytter dit fordi de kanskje kjenner noen der, og de kan få et fint sted å bo uten at det er for dyrt. Det er ikke noe problem, mener jeg, men jeg ville ikke satt pris på om det kom for mange i gaten min. Manuela Andresen (43), Hauketo Jeg tror folk flytter herfra fordi det er mangel på barnehageplasser og skoleplasser i nærmiljøet. Jeg jobber i barnehage selv, og vet at det er lange køer for å få plass.

5 Bestevenninnene Argha og Vibeke-Margrethe skulle begge egentlig gått på Mortensrud skole, med 97 prosent minoritetsspråklige elever. Men både Jeinender Prasher og Bjørn Ole Berge vil at døtrene skal gå på en skole med bedre elevmiks og har flyttet døtrene til den «hvitere» Stenbråten skole. Mange foreldre i Oslo gjør som dem. FOTO: ALLE JAN TOMAS ESPEDAL Foreldre flytter barna til "hvitere" skoler Etnisk delt. Bjørn Ole Berge nektet å la datteren Vibeke-Margrethe bli den eneste i klassen med norsk bakgrunn og flyttet henne til en «hvitere» skole. De som kritiserer meg, kunne jo tatt plassen hennes, sier han. Osloskolen blir stadig mer etnisk delt.

6 Aftenposten 13. oktober 2014 «En innvandrerforskers hvite flukt» Forskningen jeg selv har gjort viser at det ikke er negativt for barn å gå på skoler hvor mange elever har minoritetsbakgrunn. Men i fjor flyttet jeg mine egne barn fra Grorud. Debatt Silje Bringsrud Fekjær forsker ved Politihøgskolen Oppdatert: 13.okt Debatten om hvordan det egentlig er å bo i et område der mange har innvandrerbakgrunn har en tendens til å polariseres mellom dem som mener at det er helt uproblematisk å bo i slike områder, og dem som mener det er forferdelig. Politikerne og innvandringsforskerne som mener dette er helt uproblematisk, har gjerne én ting felles: De har sine egne barn trygt forvart i de velstående områdene i Oslo. Vi som selv har prøvd å bo med barn i områder med høy minoritetsandel, vet at dette hverken er grusomt for barna eller problemfritt.

7 «White flight» («hvit flukt») in Norwegian media Number Total number Oslo region Child welfare as specified motive

8 Anticipated effects Enhanced out-mobility The classic prejudice thesis Parenthood effect - Housing tenure - The proxy hypothesis Parenthood effect - Housing tenure - The neighbourh. stereotyping thesis Parenthood effect + + Housing = heightened tenure out-migration, - = no effect on out-migration + In addition: The neighbourhood stereotyping hypothesis relates to increasing minority share, not to the current minority share

9 Data set 1: residential mobility among natives aged who lived in the Oslo area (13 municipalities) on January 1, 2010 Dependent variable: Mobility across census tracts in 2010 Key independent variables: Share of non-nordic residents in the tract 2010 Change in share of non-nordic residents Census tract deprivation, 2009 Change in cencus tract deprivation Presence of children in the household

10 Data set 1: deprivation measurement (i.e. test of the proxy thesis) Z score based on three indicators of census tract deprivation: Share of individuals aged with primary school as highest completed education Share of individuals aged with net income in the first quintile Share of individuals aged 25 to 49 who receive either social assistance or housing allowance

11 Households with children Owners, youngest child 0-5 years Owners, youngest child 6-18 years Owners, first child Renters, youngest child 0-5 years Renters, youngest child 6-18 years Renters, first child Parenthood defined in social terms: individuals who live with children

12 Data set 1: control variables Individual level: Age, age squared, gender, civil status, log income (net income), highest completed education, length of residence Census tract level: Location in three annual zones: the inner city, the intermediate city and the outer city

13 Data set 2: mobility motives among natives aged who moved in 2010 Survey conducted in the same area in 2012: Stratum 1: Individuals who moved from census tracts with a high share of non-nordic immigrants (decile 10) (n=362) Stratum 2: Individuals who moved from other census tracts (decile 1-9) (n=385)

14 Mobility motives Dependent variables: Too many ethnic minorities in the area Too few residents with Norwegian background in the area Key independent variables: The same as for the analysis of residential mobility Control variables: The same as for the analysis of residential mobility plus a perceptional variable: Prefer ethnic mix in the neighbourhood

15 Analytical strategy Logistic regression, using average marginal effects (dy/dx) Comparison of three types of movements, relating to +/- 4 percentage points change in share of non-nordic immigrants in the tract: Segregating movements Integrating movements Neutral movements Comparison of movements and mobility motives in decile 10 and decile 1-9 tracts

16 Mobility in 2010: average marginal effects of census tract characteristics Segregating move Integrating move Neutral moves All moves Percentage points 0,015 0,01 0, ,005-0,01-0,015-0,02 Share of non- Nordic residents 2010 Change in share of non-nordic residents Deprivation score 2009 Change in deprivation score

17 Summary of census tract effects Segregating moves correspond weakly to all three subversions of the thesis: native mobility increases with the share of non- Nordic residents; change in the share of non- Nordic residents; deprivation status and, more markedly, increasing deprivation Other moves do not correspond to either of the three subversions of the thesis

18 Mobility in 2010: Average marginal effects. Reference category: Owners without children Segregating move Integrating move Neutral moves All moves Percentage points 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0-0,05 Owners youngest child 0-5 Owners youngest child 6-18 Owners first child Renters youngest child 0-5 Renters youngest child 6-18 Renters first child 0-5 Renters without children

19 Mobility in 2010: Average marginal effects. Reference category: Owners without children Percentage points Decile 10 Decile 1-9 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0-0,05-0,1 Owners youngest child 0-5 Owners youngest child 6-18 Owners first child Renters youngest child 0-5 Renters youngest child 6-18 Renters first child 0-5 Renters without children

20 Some numeric examples Segregating moves among future parents who own their dwelling occur 7.9 percentage points more often than similar moves among owners without children Segregating moves among owners with small children (0-5 years) occur 3.1 percentage points more often than similar moves among owners without children Mobility in/out of decile 10-tracts occur 31.9 percentage points more often than similar moves among owners without children (in decile 10)

21 Summary of individual-level effects on native mobility Large differences according to household type support the neighbourhood stererotyping thesis Marked out-mobility among owners with small children and future parents support the neighbourhood stereotyping thesis Massive out-mobility among renters do not support the neighbourhood thesis

22 Mobility motives among natives who moved in 2010: marginal effect of children in the household Percentage points 0,1 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 0 "Too many immigrants in neighbourhood" Moved from a tract in decile 10 Moved from a tract in decile 1-9 Effect for decile 10 is significant at the 0.05 percent level; effect for decile 1-9 is not significant Effects of residential composition and deprivation are not significant. Increasing deprivation has a negative effect on decile 10-movements

23 Mobility motives among natives who moved in 2010: marginal effect of children in the household Percentage points 0,16 0,14 0,12 0,1 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 0 "Too few natives in the former neighbourhood" Moved from a tract in decile 10 Moved from a tract in decile 1-9 Effect for decile 10 is significant at the percent level; effect for decile 1-9 is not significant Effects of residential composition and deprivation are not significant

24 Empirical conclusions Natives who make segregating moves are affected by all suspected characteristics at the census tract level: ethnic composition, change in the ethnic composition,deprivation and, most of all, change in deprivation Household type and housing tenure matter a lot: small children in the household, and even planned family expansions, increases native out-mobility from «concentration neighbourhoods». All effects are particularly large for renters Parenthood has a significant effect on mobility motives, in accordance with actual mobility

25 Theoretical conclusions The results provide substantial support to the neighbourhood stereotyping thesis; the competing theses receive less support: Differences between groups of households Increasing deprivation has a larger effect than deprivation status However: the massive effect among renters is not predicted by the neighbourhood thesis. Nor does the thesis make a sharp distinction between households with small and larger children