TOD HOUSING ANALYSIS: RISK ASSESSMENT

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1 TOD HOUSING ANALYSIS:

2 1 OUTLINE OF FINDINGS Introduction Risk Assessment Elements Susceptibility to Development Demographic Change Housing Market Influence Existing Subsidized Housing Risk Assessment Matrix Policy Emphasis Matrix Methodology details provided in the accompanying technical memo

3 2 SELECTED STATION AREAS

4 3 CORE ISSUES EXAMINED AND ANALYSIS GEOGRAPHY Impact of development and redevelopment susceptibility ½ mile radius from transit station (parcel analysis) and selected development projects up to a ¾ mile radius Impact of (and potential for) demographic change Selected census tracts encompassing the ½ mile radius; comparisons with jurisdiction and/or MSA Influence of the local housing market ½ mile radius; comparisons with the relevant zip code and jurisdiction Presence of existing subsidized housing developments in the station area ¾ mile radius from transit station

5 4 ELEMENTS Longer Term Development Capacity Demographic Trends Risk of Demographic Change Near Term Development Activity Housing Market Strength Redevelopment Potential Risk of Change in TOD Housing Opportunities Existing Subsidized Housing Presence Colors demarcate the four core issues from the previous slide. Methodology details provided in the accompanying technical memo.

6 5 MATRIX Station Area Redevelopment Potential Near Term Development Activity Longer Term Development Plans Risk of Demographic Change Housing Market Strength Subsidized Housing Presence Mark Center Low Low Medium Low High Low Van Dorn St High Medium Low Low Low Low Branch Ave High High Medium Low Medium Low Langley Park Low Low High Medium Low Medium Prince George's Plaza Low Low High Low Medium Low Suitland Low Low Low Low Low Low 8th & H Medium High Medium Medium High Medium Anacostia Medium Medium High High Medium High Congress Heights Medium Low Medium High Medium High Georgia Ave/ Petworth Low High Low Medium High Medium

7 6 MATRIX GENERALIZED SUMMARY Higher Risk: Branch Ave 8 th & H Anacostia Congress Heights Georgia Ave/Petworth Medium/Lower Risk: Mark Center Van Dorn St Langley Park Prince George s Plaza Suitland

8 SUSCEPTIBILITY TO DEVELOPMENT 7

9 8 REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOCUS ON HIGH SUSCEPTIBILITY PARCELS Station % High* Risk Rating Mark Center 1% Low Van Dorn St 29% High Branch Ave 29% High Langley Park 5% Low Prince George's Plaza 3% Low Suitland 8% Low 8th & H 18% Medium Anacostia 20% Medium Congress Heights 20% Medium % of Station Area Total Acres 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Parcel Susceptibility to Redevelopment High Potential Low/Medium Potential Unbuildable Developed Georgia Ave/ Petworth * Of total station area land 8% Low Van Dorn St and Branch Ave have the largest percentages of total station area land deemed highly susceptible to redevelopment, although the characteristics of their prime opportunities are different. Anacostia, Congress Heights, and 8 th & H also have significant percentages.

10 9 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND PLANS IN STATION AREAS Residential Development Activity and Plans Residential Units 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Medium/ Long Term Plans Under Construction/ Near Term Pipeline Completed in Anacostia and Langley Park have the largest potential future development activity, but it is primarily based on longer term conceptual plans, most of which are originating from the local jurisdictions, not private development interests. The largest near term future development activity and recent activity is at Georgia Avenue/Petworth, 8 th & H, and Branch Avenue. We could not identify any planned residential development at Suitland.

11 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE TRENDS ANALYSIS 10

12 11 DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES EXAMINED AND WHY Income Level: Inflation adjusted trend in per capita income measures changes in real income independent of household size. Educational Attainment: Change in percentage of adults with at least a Bachelor s degree indicates shifts in the income and occupational profile of residents. Households Without Children: Households without children are a primary market segment seeking TOD housing. Younger Households: Households under age 35 are another key TOD housing segment, particularly for rental apartments. Older Households: Households over age 65 can be a key TOD housing segment, and also can represent longtime neighborhood residents whose housing needs are changing. Rental Housing Affordability: Percentage of households paying more than 30% of their income for housing costs measures the affordability of rental housing, which is more susceptible to short term escalation than ownership housing.

13 12 TREND: INCOME LEVEL Change Mark Center 4.0% Van Dorn St 3.6% Langley Park 0.7% Branch Ave 0.9% $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 Per Capita Income (in 2010 $) Prince George's Plaza 11.8% Suitland 2.2% 8th & H 28.8% Anacostia 17.4% Congress Heights 15.5% $20,000 $10,000 $ Georgia Ave/ Petworth 36.5% Georgia Ave/Petworth and 8 th & H have seen the greatest increase in real incomes (adjusted for inflation). Increases in Anacostia and Congress Heights have also been significant. Other station area tracts had small increases or even declines. Alexandria station area tracts are the most affluent, with 8 th & H catching up to them.

14 13 TREND: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 70% Bachelor's Degree or Higher 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Georgia Ave/Petworth and 8 th & H again had the greatest increases education and income are tightly linked. Van Dorn St and Branch Ave also increased significantly. The more affluent station area tracts have the highest education levels.

15 14 TREND: SINGLE HOUSEHOLDS One Person Households 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Branch Ave increased by 15 percentage points. Other increases were moderate and some station area tracts saw slight decreases. The more affluent station tracts have the highest percentage of single households.

16 15 TREND: HOUSEHOLDS WITHOUT CHILDREN 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Households without Children Branch Ave, Congress Heights, and Georgia Ave/Petworth all saw significant increases. The more affluent station area tracts have the smallest percentage of households with children.

17 16 TREND: YOUNGER HOUSEHOLDS 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Households Age < Branch Ave and Georgia Ave/Petworth saw significant increases, while Suitland and Congress Heights declined slightly.

18 17 TREND: OLDER HOUSEHOLDS 25% Households Age % 15% 10% 5% % Trends varied, with some station area tracts increasing and some declining, but all percentage point changes were in single digits. The largest changes were decreases in the station area tracts with the greatest increases in income and education levels 8 th & H and Georgia Ave/Petworth.

19 18 TREND: RENTAL HOUSING AFFORDABILITY 60% Burdened Renter Households 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Burdened = 30% or more of household income spent on housing costs Major increase at Branch Ave, and moderate increases at Congress Heights, Suitland, 8 th & H, Langley Park, and Georgia Ave/Petworth. Generally, a somewhat larger percentage of burdened renters in the District of Columbia station area tracts.

20 19 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY ALEXANDRIA STATIONS Mark Center: Little change in demographics; remains a relatively affluent area predominantly made up of younger, single households without children. Van Dorn St: Moderate increase in educational attainment (which was already the highest of the station area tracts), otherwise somewhat similar to Mark Center except with a slightly older age profile.

21 20 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY P RINCE G EORGE S C OUNTY S TAT IO NS Branch Ave: Major increases in educational attainment and younger, single households with no kids. Most likely reflects the occupants of the new housing developed near the station. Rental housing affordability has decreased substantially. Langley Park: Little change in demographics except for a moderate decrease in rental housing affordability. Prince George s Plaza: Little change in demographics except for a moderate decrease in real income level (the only station to show a decrease). Suitland: Little change in demographics except for a moderate decrease in rental housing affordability.

22 21 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA STATIONS 8 th & H: Major increases in income level and educational attainment, and a moderate decrease in rental housing affordability. Anacostia: Little change in demographics except for a moderate increase in real income level. Congress Heights: Moderate increases in real income level and households without children, and a moderate decrease in rental housing affordability. Georgia Ave/Petworth: Major increases in real income level and educational attainment, and moderate increases in younger households and households without children. Moderate decrease in rental housing affordability.

23 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 22

24 23 RISK INDICATORS Changing occupational and income profile of residents Change in percentage holding Bachelor s degree or higher from Predominance of low income renters Renter median household income in 2010, compared to HUD income limits for the region Rental dominated housing stock Percentage of renter occupied units in 2010 Housing affordability challenges for current renters Percentage of burdened renter households in 2010

25 24 INDICATOR DATA Station Bachelor's Degree Pct. Point Change Renter Median HHI Rental Housing Burdened Renters Mark Center 1 $61,360 80% 40% Van Dorn St 12 $88,520 50% 38% Branch Ave 10 $69,968 30% 41% Langley Park 3 $43,385 67% 49% Prince George's Plaza 2 $41,121 45% 42% Suitland 1 $45,170 73% 44% 8th & H 20 $61,499 48% 49% Anacostia 6 $23,422 76% 49% Congress Heights 7 $24,834 76% 54% Georgia Ave/Petworth 23 $35,612 54% 52% Scores were assigned for each indicator relative to the risk of resident relocation, and total scores were sorted into low, medium, and high risk ratings.

26 25 INDICATOR SCORES Station Total Score Risk Rating Mark Center 3 Low Van Dorn St 2 Low Branch Ave 1 Low Langley Park 7 Medium Prince George's Plaza 4 Low Suitland 4 Low Total Indicator Score Risk Score and Components % Burdened Renters % Rental Housing Renter Med. HHI Bachelor's Chg. 8th & H 5 Medium Anacostia 9 High Congress Heights 9 High Georgia Ave/ Petworth 8 Medium Anacostia, Congress Heights, Georgia Ave/Petworth, and Langley Park show the greatest risk of relocation by existing residents based on demographic factors.

27 HOUSING MARKET INFLUENCE 26

28 27 RENT TREND Station % Pts. Difference from Jurisdiction Mark Center 0.8 Van Dorn St 11.4 Branch Ave 31.6 Langley Park 3.9 Prince George's Plaza 5.0 Suitland 11.9 Change in Median Gross Rent 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Median Gross Rent Change Station Area Jurisdiction 8th & H % Anacostia 13.5 Congress Heights 6.5 Georgia Ave/ Petworth 22.6 Median rent increased the most relative to the jurisdiction at Branch Ave, 8 th & H, and Georgia Ave/Petworth.

29 28 HOME PRICE TREND Station % Pts. Difference from Zip Code %Pts. Difference from Jurisdiction Mark Center 30 1 Van Dorn St Branch Ave 7 10 Langley Park 7 1 Prince George's Plaza 11 5 Change in Median Price 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Median Home Price Change Station Area Zip Code Jurisdiction Suitland th & H Anacostia Congress Heights Georgia Ave/ Petworth Most station areas showed price decreases, as did all of the zip codes and jurisdictions. Congress Heights increased substantially (which may be a statistical anomaly) and 8 th & H posted a small increase. Mark Center and Georgia Ave/Petworth were flat, which reflects a relatively strong market given the regional trend.

30 SUBSIDIZED HOUSING PRESENCE 29

31 30 EXISTING SUBSIDIZED HOUSING DISTANCE FROM TRANSIT STATION 4,000 Existing Subsidized Housing Units Assisted Units 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, miles miles miles Congress Heights has by far the largest number of assisted units within ¾ mile, but Anacostia has more within the key ½ mile radius. Georgia Ave/Petworth, Langley Park, and 8 th & H also have a significant number of assisted units within ½ mile.

32 MATRIX 31

33 32 MATRIX COMPONENTS Development Activity & Plans: Number of residential units in the near term pipeline and in longer term conceptual plans Risk of Demographic Change: Demographic trends and conditions that can indicate pressure faced by existing residents to relocate out of the station area Housing Market Strength: Station area rent and price trends compared to its zip code and/or jurisdiction Redevelopment Potential: Percentage of parcels most susceptible to redevelopment based on the ratio of improvement value to land value Risk of Major Change in TOD Housing Opportunities Presence of Subsidized Housing: Distance from station translates to TOD influence and a potential driver of housing demand that could cause a change in project status

34 33 DETERMINING THRESHOLDS LOW, MEDIUM & HIGH Most thresholds and ratings of the station areas are qualitative in nature, but are backed by quantifiable data Redevelopment Potential: Evaluated percentage of land designated as high potential. Reflects the opportunities and challenges the market may face in assembling and redeveloping parcels in the station areas. Development Activity & Plans: Evaluated potential average annual housing unit delivery over three years for near term projects, and 10 years for longer term plans. Reflects the degree to which an influx of new housing is anticipated in both near and longer term timeframes. Risk of Demographic Change: Indicator score constructed from key demographic variables. Reflects the potential level of pressure to relocate out of the area existing residents may face. Housing Market Strength: Evaluated whether the station area trend exceeds its zip code, jurisdiction, or both and the margin of difference. Reflects the degree to which a stronger market may influence housing costs and the other three factors listed above. Presence of Subsidized Housing: Evaluated the total number of existing subsidized housing units in the expanded (¾ mile) station area and also sorted them by quarter mile increments. Reflects the amount of affordable housing that could be at risk and the level of potential TOD influence.

35 34 MATRIX Station Area Redevelopment Potential Near Term Development Activity Longer Term Development Plans Risk of Demographic Change Housing Market Strength Subsidized Housing Presence Mark Center Low Low Medium Low High Low Van Dorn St High Medium Low Low Low Low Branch Ave High High Medium Low Medium Low Langley Park Low Low High Medium Low Medium Prince George's Plaza Low Low High Low Medium Low Suitland Low Low Low Low Low Low 8th & H Medium High Medium Medium High Medium Anacostia Medium Medium High High Medium High Congress Heights Medium Low Medium High Medium High Georgia Ave/ Petworth Low High Low Medium High Medium

36 POLICY EMPHASIS 35

37 36 POLICY EMPHASIS INTENT Recognize that station areas require different approaches based on their planning contexts and housing needs Identify the distinguishing characteristics of different TOD housing situations Provide a rough typology of station area types to facilitate future assessments and guide policy development Help simplify TOD housing discussions at the regional level

38 37 POLICY EMPHASIS MATRIX Redevelopment Infill/Renovation Primary Planning Strategy Significant existing affordable housing stock and large scale redevelopment potential in station area Varied redevelopment opportunities but significant affordable housing stock exists Significant existing affordable housing stock, and small scale redevelopment potential Some affordable housing exists but there are significant opportunities to provide more; largescale redevelopment potential Varied redevelopment opportunities and balance between preservation and production needs Some affordable housing exists but there are opportunities to provide more; small scale redevelopment potential Lack of affordable housing and primarily large scale redevelopment potential Varied redevelopment opportunities but need for new affordable housing Lack of affordable housing and primarily small scale redevelopment potential Preservation Primary Housing Strategy Production

39 38 POLICY EMPHASIS PILOT STATION AREA CLASSIFICATION Redevelopment Infill/Renovation Primary Planning Strategy Anacostia Congress Heights Georgia Ave/Petworth Suitland 8 th & H Langley Park Branch Ave Van Dorn St Prince George s Plaza Mark Center Preservation Primary Housing Strategy Production