Hvordan ser verden ut i 2014? DNB Markets syn på konjunkturer, rentesetting og valuta «Festen er over Let The Party Begin» Presentasjon på: Torskefiskkonferansen Norges Sjømatråd Av: Senioranalytiker Eirik Larsen Tromsø, 31. oktober 2013
Og til dere i Sjømatrådet 2
Ett år siden sist: Hva sa vi hvordan gikk det? * Industrilandene har klart seg bedre enn ventet svakere i BRIC Sterke tegn på avmatning i Norge og prognosene er nedjustert Eurokrisen er betydelig redusert Lavrentepolitikken (og pengetrykkingen) forsetter * DNB Markets, november 2012 Norges Banks dilemma er ikke blitt mindre Olje: spot on! Valuta: vi traff kronetoppen - men undervurderte svekkelsen 3
Fem år siden finanskrisen Hvor står vi? Pengemarkedsrenten ESB styringsrente Boom Bust Oppsving Nedkjøling / resesjon? Hvor står vi i dag? Konjunkturene: Svakere oppsving enn normalt. Fortsatt svært høy arbeidsledighet Statsfinansene: Betydelige innstramninger, men statsgjelden øker fortsatt Pengepolitikken: 0-rentepolitikken videreføres Pengetrykkingen videreføres Markedene: Økt risiko-appetitt og lavere risiko-påslag 4
Markedene priser inn at det verste er over og jakten på større avkastning setter på nytt dagsorden 2013 Økt risikoappetitt i de fleste regioner og i valutamarkedet er det risk on! Kapitalen flyttes fra obligasjoner til aksjer 5
De økonomiske nøkkeltallene har stort sett overrasket oss positivt men tendensen er nå fallende. Både i eurosonen og i USA Daily Q.CESIUSD, Q.CESIEUR Bedre enn ventet Dårligere enn ventet 07/01/2013-08/11/2013 (GMT) 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 13 20 28 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Price USD 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60-70 -80-90 -100.1 6
så også i Norge: Daily Q.CESIUSD, Q.CESIEUR, Q.CESINOK Bedre enn ventet Dårligere enn ventet 07/01/2013-08/11/2013 (GMT) 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 13 20 28 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Price USD 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60-70 -80-90 -100.1 7
DNB Markets: Makroscore for oktober konjunkturmåling fra -2 til +2. Kun USA, UK og Japan har nå et aktivitetsnivå som ligger over trend Sterk bedring fra lavt nivå i eurosonen Stabilt, svakt i Sverige og Kina Sterkest forverring i Norge 8
DNB Markets: Internasjonale vekstanslag per august 2013 (reviderte anslag legges frem i desember) GDP. Per cent change DNB IMF 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 World 3.2 3.1 3.8 2.9 3.6 Industrialized economies 1.3 1.0 2.1 1.2 2.0 USA 2.8 1.7 2.9 1.6 2.6 Japan 2.0 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.2 Eurozone -0.5-0.4 1.5-0.4 1.0 Ge rm any 0.9 0.6 2.2 0.5 1.4 France 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.2 1.0 Italy -2.4-1.7 0.7-1.8 0.7 Spain -1.4-1.4 1.0-1.3 0.2 UK 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.9 Emerging economies 5.2 5.2 5.4 4.5 5.1 China 7.8 7.5 7.0 7.6 7.3 India 3.2 5.0 6.0 3.8 5.1 Brazil 0.8 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 Russia 3.4 2.5 3.0 1.5 3.0 Source: DNB Markets/IMF 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 Globalt BNP Prosentvis volumendring fra året før. Bidrag -2 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Kina EMEs x Kina USA ØMU Øvrige industriland Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets USA Tyskland Sverige UK Frankrike Japan ØMU Italia Spania BNP Prosentvis endring fra året før -2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Kilde: DNB Markets 2013 2014 9
DNB Markets: Internasjonale renteanslag Renteoppgangen lar fortsatt vente på seg 2013: Små endringer i pengepolitikken i industrilandene (ESB kuttet i mai) Nytt tema: «Forward guidance»: Fed: Renteøkning knyttes til nedgang i arbeidsledigheten (<6,5%) BoE: Det samme (<7,0%) ESB: Retorisk: «renten vil ligge på dagens nivå eller lavere for an extended periode.» NB/Riksbanken: publiserte rentebaner Korte renter: Holdes nede av lave styringsrenter Renteheving først i 2015 (USA) og 2016 (EZ) Lange renter: Feds «tapering» er trolig allerede priset inn Oppgang fra våren til neste år Styringsrente 29-Oct-13 1 mnd Jan-14 Apr-14 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 USA: Fed Funds 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.50 3.00 Japan: Dag-til-dag 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Euroland: Repo 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.00 UK: Bank rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 2.50 Sverige: Repo 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.50 Norge: Folio 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.75 Sveits: 3M Libor CHF 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.50 1.00 Tre mndr 29-Oct-13 1 mnd Jan-14 Apr-14 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 USA 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.70 1.70 3.20 Japan 0.14 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 Euroland 0.23 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.70 1.20 Storbritannia 0.52 0.50 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.70 1.20 2.70 Sverige 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.25 1.50 2.00 2.75 Norge 1.67 1.70 1.70 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 3.00 Sveits 0.02 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.50 1.00 10 år swap 29-Oct-13 1 mnd Jan-14 Apr-14 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 USA 2.65 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.50 3.75 4.00 Japan 0.77 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.00 Euroland 2.04 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 3.00 Storbritannia 2.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.25 3.50 3.75 Sverige 2.67 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.75 Norge 3.33 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.00 Sveits 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.50 Spread NO-ØMU 1.29 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.00 10
11
Festen er over. 2012 2014? 12
Vi har lenge hevdet at våre vekstmotorer vil miste turtall Men spørsmålet i dag er om farten blir enda lavere enn antatt? 2011-2013 2013-2016 Sterk årlig økning i oljeinvesteringene Sterk årlig økning i boliginvesteringene Oljeinvesteringene flater ut Lavere oljepris Høyt investeringsnivå og høyt kostnadsnivå Boliginvesteringene flater ut / faller Strammere kredittvilkår Lavere lønnsvekst Stigende arbeidsledighet 13
Anslag for norsk økonomi 2013 2016 med endringer fra anslagene gjort i april Makroøkonomiske nøkkeltall. Norge Endring fra april-anslag, pp. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 Privat forbruk 2.5 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.7-0.5-0.1 0.0 0.0 Offentlig forbruk 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Oljeinvesteringer 14.0 14.5 10.0 5.0 1.0-2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fastlandsinvesteringer 8.5 3.7 2.4 2.1 2.9 3.1-1.0 0.2-0.1-0.1 Trad. vareeksport 0.0 2.6 1.0 1.8 3.5 4.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Trad. vareimport 3.6 2.7 0.7 5.0 4.7 4.0-3.2-0.2 0.1 0.1 BNP 1.2 3.1 0.9 1.8 1.5 1.6-0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 - Fastlands-Norge 2.5 3.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1-0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Sysselsetting 1.3 2.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5-0.3 0.2-0.2 0.0 Arbeidsledighet (AKU) 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Årslønn 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Konsumpriser 1.3 0.7 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 KPI-JAE 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.3 Sparerate 7.3 8.5 8.2 7.6 7.1 6.5-0.4-0.7-0.6-0.5 Boligpris 9.0 7.7 5.2 0.5-1.5-1.0-1.3-1.5 0.0 0.0 3m NIBOR 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.8 0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2 Oljepris (USD/fat) 112 111 107 102 100 98 Oljepris (NOK/fat) 628 646 627 635 620 549 Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Aug 2013 14
Renteprognose Norge Styringsrente 28-Oct-13 1 mnd Jan-14 Apr-14 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 USA: Fed Funds 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.50 3.00 Japan: Dag-til-dag 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Euroland: Repo 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.00 UK: Bank rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 2.50 Sverige: Repo 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.50 Norge: Folio 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.75 Sveits: 3M Libor CHF 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.50 1.00 Tre mndr 28-Oct-13 1 mnd Jan-14 Apr-14 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 USA 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.70 1.70 3.20 Japan 0.14 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 Euroland 0.23 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.70 1.20 Storbritannia 0.52 0.50 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.70 1.20 2.70 Sverige 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.25 1.50 2.00 2.75 Norge 1.67 1.70 1.70 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 3.00 Sveits 0.02 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.50 1.00 10 år swap 28-Oct-13 1 mnd Jan-14 Apr-14 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 USA 2.65 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.50 3.75 4.00 Japan 0.77 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.00 Euroland 2.07 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 3.00 Storbritannia 2.63 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.25 3.50 3.75 Sverige 2.74 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.75 Norge 3.32 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.00 Sveits 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.50 Spread NO-ØMU 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.00 Norske renter Faktisk/prognose 23. sep. 2013 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Sep-yy Sep-yy Sep-yy Folio 3m NIBOR Ti år swap Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets 15
Sterk norsk krone sist vinter: It s different this time!! *NOT* noen måneder senere DN, 3. januar 2013 DN, 20. juni 2013 DN, 6. februar 2013 16
Valutamarkedet har vært krevende så langt i år: euro og dollar har vært vinnerne yen og norsk kroner de store taperne Hurra! EURNOK 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 EURNOK Rate of Change 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 r 2013 February April May June July August September Nov 17
Gjenspeiler dagens valutakurser den økonomiske utviklingen? Basert på kjøpekraftspariteter (PPP): «Ja, stort sett» PPP-kurs Faktisk kurs % over/undervurdert Valutapar 10/10/2013 28/10/2013 i forhold til PPP EURUSD 1.34 1.38-3% EURNOK 8.01 8.13-1% USDNOK 6.01 5.90 2% EURSEK 9.32 8.75 6% SEKNOK 86.11 92.92-8% EURGBP 0.79 0.85-9% USDJPY 98.70 97.74 1% EURCHF 1.44 1.23 14% GBPNOK 10.19 9.52 7% JPYNOK 6.09 6.03 1% CHFNOK 5.55 6.58-19% GBPUSD 1.70 1.61 5% EURJPY 132.10 134.67-2% 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 EURNOK - PPP Monthly 6.5 Apr-81 Apr-89 Apr-97 Apr-05 Apr-13 EURNOK Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets PPP 18
Men viktigere: Hvor går kronen herfra? Kronesynet spriker, som vanlig! 19
EURNOK En lineær regresjon fra 1999 +/- 2 std gir en interessant pekepinn 10,16 10.0 10.0 9.5 9,27 8,89 9.5 9.0 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 ---Snitt 8,03 8.0 7.5 7.5 7.0 80 60 40 20 7,21 96 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 7,24 7.0 80 60 40 20 20
EURNOK Vi er trolig nær en topp for EURNOK men fremover kan nedsidepotensialet være begrenset 10,16 10.0 10.0 9.5 9,27 8,89 9.5 9.0 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.5 7.5 7.0 80 60 40 20 «overkjøpt» «oversolgt» 96 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 7.0 80 60 40 20 7,21 7,24 21
USDNOK Trolig er dollarens oppsidepotensial mindre enn fundamentale forhold tilsier 9,65 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7,31 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 6,26 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 6,02 5.0 70 50 30 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 4,94 60 50 40 30 22
Valutaprognose per 18. oktober 2013 EURUSD 1.40 1.40 1.35 1.35 1.30 1.30 1.25 1.25 26-Oct-12 26-Oct-13 26-Oct-14 fwd CF Oct 13 PPP DNB Kilde: Thomson Reuters/Consensus Economics/DNB Markets USDJPY 110 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 26-Oct-12 26-Oct-13 26-Oct-14 Fwd DNB CF Oct 13 PPP Kilde: Thomson Reuters/Consensus Economics/DNB Markets EURNOK 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.2 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.0 26-Oct-12 26-Oct-13 26-Oct-14 Fwd CF Oct 13 PPP DNB Kilde: Thomson Reuters/Consensus Economics/DNB Markets Valutakurs 28-Oct-13 1 mnd Jan-14 Apr-14 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 USDJPY 97.6 98 100 102 105 106 107 110 EURUSD 1.38 1.35 1.33 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.35 EURGBP 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.85 EURDKK 7.46 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.45 EURSEK 8.74 8.70 8.80 8.90 8.90 9.01 9.13 9.27 EURNOK 8.12 8.00 7.90 7.90 7.80 7.80 7.70 7.70 EURCHF 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.35 1.41 1.46 USDCNY 6.09 6.15 6.15 6.15 6.15 6.00 5.85 5.70 23
Valutaprognose per 18. oktober 2013 6.4 USDNOK 6.4 11.0 GBPNOK 11.0 8.0 JPYNOK 8.0 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.6 5.2 5.2 26-Oct-12 26-Oct-13 26-Oct-14 fwd DNB CF Oct 13 PPP Kilde: Thomson Reuters/Consensus Economics/DNB Markets 10.5 10.5 10.0 10.0 9.5 9.5 9.0 9.0 8.5 8.5 26-Oct-12 26-Oct-13 26-Oct-14 Fwd CF Oct 13 PPP DNB Kilde: Thomson Reuters, Consensus Economics and DNB Markets 7.5 7.5 7.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 26-Oct-12 26-Oct-13 26-Oct-14 Fwd DNB CF Oct 13 PPP Kilde: Thomson Reuters, Consensus Economics and DNB Markets Kalkulerte prognoser 28-Oct-13 1 mnd Jan-14 Apr-14 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 SEKNOK 92.93 91.95 89.77 88.76 87.64 86.56 84.35 83.06 USDNOK 5.89 5.93 5.94 6.08 6.00 5.97 5.84 5.72 GBPNOK 9.53 9.41 9.40 9.52 9.40 9.36 9.19 9.05 JPYNOK 6.03 6.05 5.94 5.96 5.71 5.66 5.45 5.19 DKKNOK 109 107 106 106 105 105 103 103 CHFNOK 659 645 632 622 600 577 548 527 NOKTWI 98.22 97.1 95.9 95.9 94.6 94.1 92.4 91.5 24
Avslutningsvis: Hvilke risikofaktorer kommer vi ikke utenom? Gjeldstaket Tåler USA mindre stimulanser?? Undervurderer vi dynamikken? Vårt vekstanslag er høyt! Nye tillitskriser Nord/syd-problematikk «Bære eller briste»-strategi Stagflasjon? Tapt støtte til Abenomics? Fortsatt ubalansert vekst Fortsatt risiko for hard landing Og som alltid: 25
Oppsummert: Dette er våre major calls for 2014 De globale vekstutsiktene synes nå noe lysere. Sannsynligheten for et euro-kollaps er betydelig redusert Vi tror oppsvinget i industrilandene vil fortsette, med viktige bidrag fra USA, Japan og Tyskland. Trolig også fra Storbritannia Strukturelle og sykliske forhold varsler lavere vekst i Kina fremover. Liten sannsynlighet for «hard landing» Vedvarende behov for ekspansiv pengepolitikk i de fleste industriland Norsk økonomi kjøles ned (olje- og boliginvesteringer) men vi unngår full stopp Norges Bank holder renten lav, men nye kapitalkrav kan gi renteløft Sterkere dollar og NOK. Yen kan falle mer 26
Takk for oppmerksomheten og husk: Don t underestimate fish! 27
Disclaimer IMPORTANT/DISCLAIMER This note (the Note ) must be seen as marketing material and not as an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 2007 paragraph 3-10 and the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation 2007/06/29 no. 876. The Note has been prepared by DNB Markets, a division of DNB Bank ASA, a Norwegian bank organized under the laws of the Kingdom of Norway (the Bank ), for information purposes only. The Note shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. The Bank, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (individually, each a DNB Party ; collectively, DNB Parties ) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Note. DNB Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, nor for the results obtained from the use of the Note, nor for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Note is provided on an as is basis. DNB PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE NOTE S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE NOTE WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall DNB Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Note, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions expressed herein reflect the Bank s judgment at the time the Note was prepared and DNB Parties assume no obligation to update the Note in any form or format. The Note should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. No DNB Party is acting as fiduciary or investment advisor in connection with the dissemination of the Note. While the Note is based on information obtained from public sources that the Bank believes to be reliable, no DNB Party has performed an audit of, nor accepts any duty of due diligence or independent verification of, any information it receives. Confidentiality rules and internal rules restrict the exchange of information between different parts of the Bank and this may prevent employees of DNB Markets who are preparing the Note from utilizing or being aware of information available in DNB Markets/the Bank which may be relevant to the recipients of the Note. The Note is not an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any investment strategy. Distribution of material like the Note is in certain jurisdictions restricted by law. Persons in possession of the Note should seek further guidance regarding such restrictions before distributing the Note. The Note is for clients only, and not for publication, and has been prepared for information purposes only by DNB Markets - a division of DNB Bank ASA registered in Norway with registration number NO 984 851 006 (the Register of Business Enterprises) under supervision of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet), Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Chilean Superintendent of Banks, and on a limited basis by the Financial Services Authority of UK. Information about DNB Markets can be found at dnb.no. Additional information for clients in Singapore The Note has been distributed by the Singapore branch of DNB Bank ASA. It is intended for general circulation and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any product referred to in the Note, taking into account your specific financial objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase any such product. Recipients of the Note should note that, by virtue of their status as accredited investors or expert investors, the Singapore branch of DNB Bank ASA will be exempt from complying with certain compliance requirements under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 of Singapore (the FAA ), the Financial Advisers Regulations and associated regulations there under. In particular, it will be exempt from: - Section 27 of the FAA (which requires that there must be a reasonable basis for recommendations when making recommendations on investments). Please contact the Singapore branch of DNB Bank ASA at +65 6212 0753 in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the Note. We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may have interests in any products referred to in the Note by acting in various roles including as distributor, holder of principal positions, adviser or lender. We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities. In addition, we, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may buy or sell products as principal or agent and may effect transactions which are not consistent with the information set out in the Note. Additional Information, including for Recipients in the In the United States: This note (the Note) is a market letter, as the term is defined in NASD Rule 2211, and, thus, does not constitute a research report within the meaning of U.S. securities laws and regulations, including, without limitation, SEC Rule 15a-6, NASD Rule 2711 and Regulation AC.