Makroøkonomisk status og prognoser for Baltikum Leif A. Holmen, DNB Markets 1
Estland EU medlem 24 Estland innførte euro 1. januar 211, etter at den planlagte innføringen i 27 ble utsatt på grunn av høy inflasjon Gjøres terminer og vekslinger i EUR Elektronisk handelssystem og gjennom megler Ingen begrensinger i forhold til likviditet Innsynsmulighet gjennom DNB s nettbank på konti i DNB Estland 2
Litauen EU medlem fra 24 Valuta Litas LTL Valutaen er knyttet til euro gjennom valutasamarbeidet ERM 2 Litauen besluttet å gå over til euro fra og med 27, og frem til da skulle valutaen være fastlåst mot EUR. I 26 ble det imidlertid klart at den litauiske inflasjonen var noe for høy i forhold til EUs krav, og det er derfor usikkert når landet får innføre euro. Men mest sannsynlig vil de søke om innføring av EUR i 215 Gjøres valutavekslinger og terminforretninger innenfor 3 mnd Handles gjennom elektronisk handelssystem og gjennom megler Terminer over 3 mnd handles gjennom megler Ikke Europas mest likvide valuta Innsynsmulighet gjennom DNB s nettbank på konti i DNB Litauen 3
Latvia EU medlem i 24 Valutaen LAT, LVL, er knyttet til euro gjennom valutasamarbeidet ERM 2 Gjøres vekslinger og terminforretninger innenfor 3 mnd Handles gjennom elektronisk handelssystem og gjennom megler Terminer over 3 mnd handles gjennom megler Ikke Europas mest likvide valuta Innsynsmulighet gjennom DNB s nettbank på konti i DNB Latvia 4
Fremover: ERM medlemskap for Latvia Latvia overholdt alle Maastricht kriteriene i 212 og myndighetene har bestemt å søke å innføre EUR fra 1. Januar 214. Ikke overraskende har støtten for euro blitt betydelig svekket. I 212 ga bare 15% av den latviske befolkningen støtte til innføring av euro. 5
Hva er DNB MET? Tilleggsmodul i nettbanken Enkel og fleksibel portal for valutaveksling Markedspriser på valuta Skaper forutsigbarhet for bedriftens kontantstrømmer. Mulighet for valutasikring Markedets beste åpningstider 24 timer* Kontrakts oversikt over alle valutahandler gjort med DNB Markets (også på telefon) Analyser, nyheter og WebTV sendinger 6
Hvorfor skal man bruke denne tjenesten? Supplement til våre meglertjenester Kostnadsfri tjeneste Tjenesten lar bedriften handle til markedspriser Kostnadseffektivt håndtering av valutarisiko All håndtering av betaling/veksling på ett sted (Connect) Kontrakts oversikt over alle valutahandler gjort med DNB Markets ebekreftelse av valutahandler gir mulighet for bedre internkontroll 7
En moderat oppgang Det store 29-sjokket: Størst nedgang globalt! Latvisk BNP falt 18%. Til sammenligning: Gresk BNP falt 18% i perioden 28-11. Oppgangen var ganske sterk i 211, men avtok igjen i fjor. BNP-nivåer fortsatt under nivået før finanskrisen 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2 Baltics: GDP Per cent, y/y 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 15 Baltics: GDP, sa, t-5=1 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 Q3 22 Q3 27 Q3 212 Latvia Estonia Lituania Kilde: EIU/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 8
Eksporten har styrt den positive utviklingen Små, svært åpne økonomier. Hardt rammet av nedgangen i den globale handelen i 28-9. Og igjen en veldig sterk oppgang i 21 og 211, som ble bremset av euro-krisen i 212. 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2 Baltics: Exports Per cent, y/y 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Spource: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Baltics: Industrial production Per cent, y/y -4 Oct-6 Oct-8 Oct-1 Oct-12 Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 9
Arbeidsledigheten på vei ned. Arbeidsledigheten steg raskt i løpet av krisen, til tross for en strøm av arbeidere til andre land. Nedgangen i arbeidsledigheten til nå, har vært treg, spesielt i Litauen. Inflasjonen nådde en topp i 28, men ble negativ etter krisen. I dag virker inflasjonen lav og fallende. 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Baltics: Unemployment Per cent of labour force Dec-4 Dec-6 Dec-8 Dec-1 Dec-12 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Baltics: Core inflation Per cent, y/y 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Jan-5 Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan-11 Jan-13 Latvia Estonia Lituania Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 1
Før krisen var ikke veksten bærekraftig Underskuddene på driftsbalansen var store og økende. Det latviske underskudd på driftsbalansen utgjorde 22% av BNP i 26/7. Etter krisen har handelsbalansen vært i pluss eller noenlunde balansert. Derfor synes veksten mer bærekraftig nå. Kredittveksten toppet på 6-7%. Har vært negativ etter krisen. 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 Baltics: Current Account Balance Per cent of GDP 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Baltics: Credit growth Per cent, y/y Dec-4 Dec-6 Dec-8 Dec-1 Dec-12 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 11
Intern devaluering virket Fra sterk lønnsvekst til 1%-nedgang. Lønnsveksten nå opp til moderate 5% etter krisen. Og det er mer bærekraftig på lengre sikt Den interne devalueringen førte til 4% forbedring av konkurranseevnen til Latvia. Baltics: Wages Per cent, y/y 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Q3 22 Q3 27 Q3 212 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Latvia 12
Stabile offentlige finanser Under krisen økte underskuddene betydelig i Latvia og Litauen. Dermed økte også gjeldsnivået. I Estland derimot ble underskuddet holdt lavt under krisen, og gjeldsnivået er (utrolig nok) fortsatt under 1% av BNP. 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Baltics: General government debt Per cent of GDP 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 Baltics: Government budget balance Per cent of GDP 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 13
Latvia: Betydlige markedsforbedringer 14
Easy to do business in the Baltics! World Bank ranking of ease of doing business in 133 countries - 21. Estonia: Best sub rating 7 for trading across borders - 25. Latvia: Best sub rating 4 for getting credit - 27. Lithuania: Best sub rating: 5 for registering property By comparison - 1. Singapore - 6. Norway - 2. Germany - 28. Switzerland 15
Oppsummering Fra ødeleggende krise til moderat bedring Høyere vekst reduserer arbeidsledigheten, men moderat nedgang Intern devaluering virket. En øvelse for PIIGS Sunn finanspolitisk stilling Nedgang i folketallet Euro trolig innført i alle land, Latvia 214, Litauen 215 Konsumpriser. Prosentvis endring fra året før Land/område 211 212 213 214 215 216 Eurosonen 2.7 2.5 1.7 1. 1.2 1.2 Estland 4.1 3.5 3. 2.5 3. 3. Latvia 3.9 2.5 2.5 3. 3. 3. Litauen 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.5 3. 3. BNP. Prosentvis endring fra året før Land/område 211 212 213 214 215 216 Eurosonen 1.5 -.4.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 Estland 7.6 3. 2.5 3.5 5. 5. Latvia 5.5 4.7 2.8 3.5 5. 5. Litauen 5.9 3. 2. 3. 5. 5. 16
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