Utsikter for norsk og europeisk økonomi. MayDay 214. 22/5/214 Seniorøkonom Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets
«All Time High» på børsene: Krisen er glemt! Draghis «whatever it takes» 26/7/212 ble vendepunktet 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 Aksjeindekser 7 6 5 4 3 2 5 1 May-4 May-6 May-8 May-1 May-12 May-14 MSCI verdensindeks Kilde: Thomson Datastream,/DNB Markets Kilde: Thomson Datastream, OSEBX (ha) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Spread i 1-års statsrenter Basispunkter May-8 May-1 May-12 May-14 Italia-Tyskl. Kilde: Thomson Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Spania-Tyskl.
Hellas låner penger igjen Holdt sin første vellykkede gjeldsauksjon på 4 år i april (5 år, 4,95%) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 Hellas: 1 års statsrenter Prosent 5 May-1 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 Hellas: Bruttogjeld, %BNP 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Kilde: IMF Fiscal Monitor September 211/DNB Markets
Men økonomiene sliter fortsatt Etterdønninger og tilbakeslag har gitt lav vekst i lang tid 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 BNP, sesongjustert Prosentvis endring siden 28Q1-1 Q1 28 Q1 21 Q1 212 Q1 214 USA Japan EZ UK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 Q1 28 Eurosonen: BNP Prosentvis endring siden 28Q1 Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 I alt Tyskland Frankrike Italia Kilde Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Vårt hovedscenario: Fremvoksende drar lasset Industriland: USA i tet, fra minus til (svakt) pluss i eurosonen 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Globalt BNP Prosentvis volumendring fra året før. Bidrag 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 216 Kina EMEs x Kina USA ØMU Øvrige industriland Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Flere grunner til optimisme 1. Budsjettinnstrammingene blir mindre 2.5 Syklisk justert primærbalanse Prosent av BNP. Endring år/år. Positive tall er en innstramning 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5-1. 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 ØMU USA Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Flere grunner til optimisme 2. Reformer har gitt lavere kostnader 15 14 13 12 11 ØMU: Lønnskostnader/prod.enhet 2=1 1 9 2 23 26 29 212 Italia Spania Hellas Portugal Irland Tyskland Frankrike Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Flere grunner til optimisme 3. Privat gjeld har kommet ned 18 Privat gjeld Prosent av BNP 17 16 15 14 13 12 Q2 21 Q2 24 Q2 27 Q2 21 Q2 213 USA Eurosonen Kilde: BIS/IMF/DNB Markets
Flere grunner til optimisme 4. Sentralbankene gir full gass 6 5 4 Styringsrenter Faktisk/prognose 7.mai 214 6 5 4 Ti års swaprenter Faktisk/prognose 7.mai 214 3 3 2 2 1 1 May-7 May-9 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets May-7 May-9 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets
Hvor kan vi ta feil? Noen eksempler USA: Inflasjonen kommer tidligere/sterkere Eurosonen: Giftig deflasjon/gjeldsspiral Kina: Hard landing Japan: Det pengepolitiske eksperimentet går galt
Siste 2 år: Eventyrlig sterke for Norge Da finanskrisen traff ble Norge for alvor annerledeslandet. 4 BNP Prosentvis volumendring, 199-213 3 2 1 F-Norge Sverige Danmark Eurosonen USA Gjennomsnitt Variasjon (Standardavvik) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets
2-tallet: Triplet oljepris løftet lønnsomheten Betydelige ringvirkninger, via investeringer, drift og lønnsoppgjør 3 26 22 18 14 1 Bytteforhold Eksport-/importpriser. Indeks. Q2 1995=1 6 Q3 1996 Q3 21 Q3 26 Q3 211 Danmark Sverige Finland F-Norge Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Norge: Lønnsandel Prosent 8 78 Lønnskostnader/(lønnskostnader + driftsresultat) 76 74 72 7 68 66 64 62 6 197 198 199 2 21 Fastlands-Norge Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets F.-næringer
Boligprisnivået en refleksjon av eventyret Høy inntektsvekst for den jevne nordmann, lav rente, lav og stabil ledighet 3 25 2 Deflaterte boligpriser 1985=1 13 12 11 1 Median husholdningsinntekt Prisjustert, 25=1 15 9 1 5 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Disp. inntekt KPI Byggekost Kilde: EFF/finn.no/Eiendomsverdi/Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 8 7 6 199 1995 2 25 21 Norge USA Kilde: Thomson Datastream/Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets
Tilbudssiden: Ingen byggebonanza i Norge I 199 hadde Irland 3,5 millioner innbyggere, Norge hadde 4,2 millioner 15 Norge: Befolkning og boligbygging Årlig endring i 1 15 Irland: Befolkning og boligbygging Årlig endring i 1 1 1 5 5-5 199 1995 2 25 21 Bef. Nettoinnvandring Fullførte boliger Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets -5 199 1995 2 25 21 Bef. Nettoinnvandring Fullførte boliger Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 14
Todelt etter krisen: Olje- og boligsmurt oppgang Fall i næringsinvesteringene, stagnasjon i eksport, tilbakeholdne forbrukere Norge: Etterspørselskomp onenter 28Q1=1. 3-kvartalers glidende snitt 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 Q1 28 Q1 21 Q1 212 Q1 214 Q1 216 Priv. konsum Off. kons Oljei nv. Nær.inv. Boliginv. Trad.eksport Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Nå er oljeboomen på hell Oljestimulansene går fra kraftig positive til mildt negative 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 Oljeinvesteringer Milliarder NOK 4 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Spot Brent historikk og prognose Dollar/fat 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1994 1999 24 29 214 219 FWD (nominelle priser) Prognose nominelle priser Prognose reelle priser (213 USD) Kilde: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets
Det dabber av, på bred basis Todelingen nesten borte, mindre fart i oljå, boligbyggingen faller 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 to +5. Prod. ha -3-6 Jul-4 Jul-6 Jul-8 Jul-1 Jul-12 Jul-14 Oljelev. B/A Hjemmeind. Eksportind. Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 to +5. Prod. ha -3-6 Jul-4 Jul-6 Jul-8 Jul-1 Jul-12 Jul-14 Varehandel Tj.yting bedrifter Pers. tj.yting Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4
Ingen tegn til flaskehalser og kostnadspress Sysselsettingen har flatet ut, ledigheten vil stige 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Reg.nettverk: Kapasitetsproblemer? Prosentandeler Feb-4 Feb-6 Feb-8 Feb-1 Feb-12 Feb-14 Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Vanskelig å møte økt etterspørsel Prod. begrenset av arbeidskraftstilgang 265 26 255 25 245 24 235 23 Arbeidsmarked 1 personer. Sesongjustert 225 4 May-4 May-6 May-8 May-1 May-12 May-14 Sysselsatte Kilde: Thomsen Datastream/NAV/DNB Markets Registrert helt ledige+tiltak (ha) 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5
Norges Bank: Utsetter rentehopp til høsten 215 Hvorfor ikke rentekutt, med utsikter til inflasjon under målet? 6 Styringsrenter Faktisk/prognose 7.mai 214 5 4 3 2 1 May-7 May-9 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Gjeldsbyrde bekymrer Rentebetalingene opp til 1% av disp. inntekt, tross beskjeden renteoppgang 2 16 12 8 4 Husholdningene Prosent av disponibel inntekt 25 2 15 1 5 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Rentebelastning Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Gjeldsandel (ha)
Sparelysten har økt, og den har kommet for å bli! Rekordhøy gjeld vil hindre tilløp til kjøpefest 8 Sparerate, husholdninger, % 6 4 2-2 -4-6 199 1995 2 25 21 215 x utbytte x utbytte og pensjonspremie Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets
Boligprisfall i høst et blaff, nedgang fra neste år -4½% de neste to årene, som følge av høyere ledighet og høyere renter 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Bruktboligpriser Prosentvis endring år/år -15 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Faktisk Kilde: EFF/NEF/Econ Pöyry/Finn.no/DNB Markets Modell
Motvekter: Svakere krone og oppsving ute Men norske eksportører vil fortsatt tape markedsandeler 8.6 8.4 8.2 8. 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 Norske kroner Sterkere krone 7. 83 May-1 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 EURNOK I-44 (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 95 93 91 89 87 85
og impulser fra finanspolitikken Vi venter 15 mrd i skattekutt neste år 28 Oljefond og oljepengebruk Mrd 214-kroner 24 2 16 12 8 4 21 24 27 21 213 216 219 Faktisk NB15? 4% Kilde: Finansdepartement et, NB214 & TP214/DNB Markets
214-216: Myk landing Fastlandsvekst i underkant av 2%. Under pari for Norge, men langt fra krise Norge: Etterspørselskomp onenter 28Q1=1. 3-kvartalers glidende snitt 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 Q1 28 Q1 21 Q1 212 Q1 214 Q1 216 Priv. konsum Off. kons Oljei nv. Nær.inv. Boliginv. Trad.eksport Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
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