Rollen til norsk fornybar kraftproduksjon i 2050 Scenarioer for Norge som leverandør av balansekraft eller stor leverandør av fornybar energi Julian Sauterleute, Ove Wolfgang, Ingeborg Graabak SINTEF Energi CEDREN-seminar hos Miljødirektoratet, 15. april 2015
HydroBalance Miljømessige, tekniske, økonomiske og samfunnsmessige utfordringer Okt 2013 - Okt 2017 Budsjett 25 Mio NOK Scenarioer for ulike fremtider til det norske vannkraftsystemet i 2050 Analyser, simuleringer og casestudier av energisystemet energimarkedet miljøkonsekvenser regulatoriske rammeverket og samfunnsaksept Lage et veikart 2
Scenariobygging: tilnærmingen Formulation of the key research question Hvilken rolle kan balansekraft og energilagring fra norsk vannkraft spille på det europeiske kraftmarkedet i 2050? Hvilke faktorer er viktige? Identification of most important, uncertain factors (Uncertainties) Identification of trends and influencing factors with respect to the research question Identification of most important controllable aspects (Options) Hvilke aspekter er kontrollerbare? Definition of Futures as combinations of Uncertainties Definition of Strategies as combinations of Options Source: Huertas-Hernando & Bakken (2012), e-highway 2050 Project Scenarios Building consistent data models Analyses 3
Valg av scenarioene Strategies Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Futures Active climate policy expansion Value creation Nordic only Future 1 Medium Demand 1 2 = A 3 4 Future 2 Niche market 5 6 7 = C 8 Future 3 Various flexibility 9 = B 10 11 12 Future 4 Critical supply 13 14 15 16 = D Fremhevete tall: Relevante scenarioer Grå bakgrunn: Scenarioer med lignende resultat Ramme: Fire utvalgte scenarioene Utvalgte scenarioene: A Liten lager B Stor lager C Nisjelager D Nordisk lager 6
Fire scenarioer med tre dimensjoner 7
Scenario A Liten lager Uncertainties in Future 1 Technology Variable RES share of electricity generation Expansion of European transmission grid Deployment of CCS Market Competition from alternative flexible technologies EU regulatory framework and market integration Policy Ambitions of countries to connect to Norway Options in Strategy 2 Expansion of Norwegian transmission grid New and upgrade of existing hydro plants Support of variable RES in Norway Ambitions of Norway to build interconnectors Medium Demand Medium Yes Low Fully integrated expansion Middels integrasjon Lite volum Alle tidshorisonter 8
Scenario B Stor lager Uncertainties in Future 3 Technology Variable RES share of electricity generation Expansion of European transmission grid Deployment of CCS Market Competition from alternative flexible technologies EU regulatory framework and market integration Policy Ambitions of countries to connect to Norway Options in Strategy 1 Expansion of Norwegian transmission grid New and upgrade of existing hydro plants Support of variable RES in Norway Ambitions of Norway to build interconnectors Various flexibility High No Low Fully integrated Active climate policy Høy integrasjon Stort volum Alle tidshorisonter 9
Scenario C Nisjelager Uncertainties in Future 2 Technology Variable RES share of electricity generation Expansion of European transmission grid Deployment of CCS Market Competition from alternative flexible technologies EU regulatory framework and market integration Policy Ambitions of countries to connect to Norway Options in Strategy 3 Expansion of Norwegian transmission grid New and upgrade of existing hydro plants Support of variable RES in Norway Ambitions of Norway to build interconnectors Niche market High No High Day-ahead only Value creation Limited Middels integrasjon Middels volum Lange tidshorisonter 10
Scenario D Nordisk lager Uncertainties in Future 4 Technology Variable RES share of electricity generation Expansion of European transmission grid Deployment of CCS Market Competition from alternative flexible technologies EU regulatory framework and market integration Policy Ambitions of countries to connect to Norway Options in Strategy 4 Expansion of Norwegian transmission grid New and upgrade of existing hydro plants Support of variable RES in Norway Ambitions of Norway to build interconnectors Critical supply High Limited No Low Day-ahead only Nordic only Limited Weak Lite integrasjon Lite volum Alle tidshorisonter 11
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Bruk av scenarioene Energisystemmodellering systemperspektiv El-markedmodell Balansekraftbehov Alternative teknologier Forretningsmodeller perspektiv fra en kraftprodusent El-markedmodell Simuleringer for spesifike case 13
Bruk av scenarioene Endrete driftsmønstre: effekter av hurtigere og hyppigere vannstandsendringer på fiskepopulasjoner Sammenheng mellom miljøeffekter og magasintype, klima, vassdrags-karakteristikk Virkninger av regulering på fisk så langt Virkninger av fremtidig regulering Regulatorisk rammeverk og samfunnsaksept Regelverk i ulike land (NO, GB, DE) Syn blant stakeholdere Stakeholder intervjus: kommunisere ulike fremtidsbilder 14
Takk for oppmerksomheten! julian.sauterleute@sintef.no www.cedren.no