Fra Stagnasjon til Trumpflasjon - Fortsatt høy makroøkonomisk risiko i 217 Svein Rune Jordheim, DNB Markets
Innhold Globalt: Heterogen vekst og vesentlige risikofaktorer USA: Fra stagnasjon til trumpflasjon Eurosonen: Alt er moderat, unntatt politikken Norge: Det verste er over 2
Globalt: Moderat vekst, løftet av Kina & India 1 8 6 4 2-2 BNP Pst.vis endring å/å, og bidrag til global vekst -4 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27 212 217 Rike EMEs Rike EMEs Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets BNP 15 Prosentvis endring år/år 12 9 6 3-3 -6-9 -12 Q3 28 Q3 21 Q3 212 Q3 214 Q3 216 Kina India Russland Brasil Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets. BRICs utgjør 53% av EMEs, 3% av verden Global vekst opp fra 3% i 216 til 3.2% i 217
Ledigheten faller (selv i ØMU), inflasjonen stiger 14 Arbeidsledighet Prosent av arbeidsstyrken 3 Konsumpriser Prosentvis endring år/år 12 1 2 8 6 1 4 2 Nov-6 Nov-8 Nov-1 Nov-12 Nov-14 Nov-16 USA ØMU Japan UK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets -1 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 USA Eurosonen UK Sverige Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Kjerneinflasjonen er jevnt over noe høyere (oljeprisen forstyrrer fortsatt).
Million b/d Oljemarkedet tilbake i balanse 15 Global Oil Supply vs Demand (DNB assumptions on supply and demand for the forward looking) 15 Oljepris Brent Blend, USD/fat 1 95 9 85 125 1 75 5 25 Source: IEA, DNB Markets 8 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 Oil liquids supply Oil liquids demand Jan-95 Jan- Jan-5 Jan-1 Jan-15 Jan-2 Faktisk Jan-15 Aug-16 Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Vår prognose er 65$/f i 217 og til 7$ i 218 5
Fed på tur opp, resten er i fosterstilling 2.5 Styringsrenter Faktisk/prognose 6-Dec-216 5 Ti års swaprenter Faktisk/prognose 6-Dec-216 2. 1.5 1..5 4 3 2. 1 -.5 Nov-9 Nov-11 Nov-13 Nov-15 Nov-17 Nov-19 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets Dec-1 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets
Mange risikofaktorer Politisk usikkerhet i Europa Høy selskapsgjeld i Kina Renteoppgang i USA Proteksjonisme Oljeprisen Geopolitiske spenninger
Innhold Globalt: Heterogen vekst og vesentlige risikofaktorer USA: Fra stagnasjon til trumpflasjon Eurosonen: Alt er moderat, unntatt politikken Norge: Det verste er over 8
USA: Trumpflasjon trumfer stagnasjon Fortsettelse følger Hint om QEreduksjon Første heving «Nullrente for evig» 9
og her er (hoved)grunnen!
Trenger USA virkelig mer fart nå? 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 USA: BNP & ledighet Prosent -4 Q1 197 Q1 198 Q1 199 Q1 2 Q1 21 Resesjoner BNP å/å Ledighetsrate Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Fare for at Fed må stramme inn mer? Yellens mandat utløper i Februar 218! 12
Innhold Globalt: Heterogen vekst og vesentlige risikofaktorer USA: Fra stagnasjon til trumpflasjon Eurosonen: Moderat økonomi, hårreisende politisk bilde Norge: Det verste er over 13
Eurosonen: Moderat oppsving samlet sett.. 6 4 2-2 -4 ØMU: BNP, KPI og arbeidsledighet Prosent 13 12 11 1 9 8-6 7 Q1 25 Q1 28 Q1 211 Q1 214 Q1 217 BNP år/år HKPI Arbeidsledighetsrate (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets BNP-vekst 1.5%-1.75% de neste 3 årene 14
men store landvise forskjeller Eurosonen: BNP Prosentvis endringe siden 28Q1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 Q1 28 Q1 21 Q1 212 Q1 214 Q1 216 EZ Tyskland Frankrike Nederland Østerrike Finland Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 15
ESB gir fortsatt full gass 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1. -1 Dec-1 Dec-15 Dec-2 Repo Innskudd Balanse, mrd (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets ESB: Pengepolitikk Faktisk/anslag 6.12.216 Risiko: For tidlig nedtrapping (à la Japan)
Vesentlig politisk risiko i Eurosonen 17
Innhold Globalt: Heterogen vekst og vesentlige risikofaktorer USA: Fra stagnasjon til trumpflasjon Eurosonen: Alt er moderat, unntatt politikken Norge: Det verste er over 18
Norge: Oljeinvesteringene fortsetter å falle 225 Norge: Oljeinvesteringer 2 175 15 125 1 75 5 25 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Mrd. 213-kroner Andel av Fastlands-BNP (ha) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Anslag: -1% i 217
Bidrar til svak vekst i fastlands-økonomien Norge: Hovedtall, % 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Fastlands-BNP, å/å KPI, å/å Ledighet Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Fastlands-BNP:.7% 216, 1.3% 217
Det verste er bak oss i arbeidsmarkedet Men, store regionale forskjeller 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Arbeidsledige 1. Sesongjustert Dec-6 Dec-8 Dec-1 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Reg.+tiltak Reg. AKU (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. Registrert ledighet. Regioner Pst. Sesongjustert vha nasjonale ses.faktorer 1.5 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Riket x V5 Østland-7 Innland-2 Vestland-5 Rogaland Agder (2) Kilde: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Lave renter fyrer opp boligmarkedet 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Norge: Bruktboligpriser Prosentvis endring år/år -15 Dec-6 Dec-8 Dec-1 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Norge Stavanger Oslo Kilde: Eiendom Norge/ FINN/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Norge: Husholdningenes gjeld % av disp. inntekt 1987 1992 1997 22 27 212 217 Gjeldsbetj.grad Kilde: Norges Bank PPR 216/ og DNB Markets Rentebelastning Hva skjer hvis/når rentene stiger?
men rentebunnen er nådd (og NOK vil styrkes) 2.5% NOK 3m Forwards / Swaps / Forecasts 1. Kronekurs Faktisk/prognose 6-Dec-216 12 2.% 9.5 115 1.5% 9. 11 8.5 15 1.% 8. 1.5% 7.5 95.% Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-23 Jan-25 Jan-27 7. Dec-5 Dec-1 Dec-15 9 3m forwards (market) Swaps DNB Markets 12/216 Norges Bank PPR4 216 EURNOK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets KKI (ha)
Oppsummering - Grei vekst totalt sett (~3%), EME trekker opp. - Store forskjeller, men bedring i Brasil & Russland - Mange risikofaktorer - Nær NAIRU / «full sysselsetting» - Trump vil gi gass for å bli «great again» - Risiko for Fed-reaksjon med høyere renter. - Moderat oppsving, men store forskjeller - ECBs QE-tiltak ser ut til å ha effekt. - Gjelder å unngå nye politiske jordskjelv - Totalt sett relativt mild oljebrems. - Men: store regionale forskjeller. - Boligmarkedet og privat gjeld bekymrer. 24
Renteprognoser Styringsrenter 6-Dec-16 Land 7-Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 USA: Fed Funds Target.5.75 1. 1.25 1.75 2. 2. Japan: Dag-til-dag -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 Euroland: Reporente....... Storbritannia: Bank rate.25.25.25.25.25.25.25 Sverige: Reporente -.5 -.5 -.5 -.5 -.4.. Norge: Foliorente.5.5.5.5.5.5.5 Sveits: 3M Libor CHF -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 Tre måneders pengemarkedsrenter Land 7-Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 USA.95 1. 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.15 2.15 Japan.6.1.1.1.1.1.1 Euroland -.32 -.3 -.3 -.3 -.3 -.3 -.3 Storbritannia.38.4.4.4.4.4.4 Sverige -.63 -.5 -.45 -.45 -.25.25.25 Norge 1.13 1.1 1.5 1..95.95.95 Sveits -.74 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 Ti års swaprenter Land 7-Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 USA 2.23 2. 2. 2.25 2.5 2.25 2. Japan.22...... Euroland.76.5.5.75 1. 1. 1. Storbritannia 1.35 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.25 1.25 Sverige 1.17 1. 1. 1.25 1.75 2. 2. Norge 2.7 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2. 2. Sveits.19...... Kilde: DNB Markets
Valutaprognoser Valutakurser 6-Dec-16 Kurs 7-Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 EURNOK 9. 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.2 USDJPY 114. 115. 115. 11. 15. 15. 1. EURUSD 1.7 1.3 1.2 1. 1.1 1.15 1.2 EURGBP.85.86.89.92.93.93.95 EURSEK 9.76 9.6 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.9 8.9 EURCHF 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.12 1.15 1.19 1.22 USDCNY 6.88 7. 7.5 7.1 7.31 7.53 7.76 Valutakurser (beregnet) Kurs Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 SEKNOK 92.2 92.7 94.6 95.6 96.6 93.3 92.1 USDNOK 8.39 8.64 8.63 8.7 7.73 7.22 6.83 GBPNOK 1.58 1.35 9.89 9.46 9.14 8.92 8.63 JPYNOK 7.36 7.51 7.5 7.91 7.36 6.87 6.83 DKKNOK 121 119 118 117 114 111 11 CHFNOK 831.1 816.5 8. 776.8 736.8 698.5 67. TWI 19.3 18.5 17.5 16.5 13.5 1. 98.
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