1 Professor of petroleum economics, University of Stavanger Phone: + 47-91 53 48 14 email: klaus.mohn@uis.no PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE 2013 : Professor, University of Stavanger Business School 2009 2013: Chief economist, Statoil Head of corporate research team on macroeconomics and market developments (9 persons) Active management of broad set of internal and external stakeholders Developing views and positions on business context issues Development and delivery of speeches & presentations 2008 2009: Special adviser, Strategy and portfolio development, E&P Norway, Statoil. 2003 2005: Special adviser and Head of CEO s office, Statoil Preparation of speeches, briefing and background material for executive committee Liaison activities between CEO and the Statoil organisation Involved in corporate strategy and communication, management agenda planning In charge of Statoil s Corporate Summit 2000 2002: Adviser, CEO's office, Statoil See above 1999 2000: Investor Relations Manager, Statoil Preparing Statoil s introduction to international capital markets ahead of the IPO 1997 1999: Senior Economist, Statoil Research on international macroeconomics and business cycles Interest rate and exchange rate forecasts (corporate planning assumptions) Advise on petroleum activity and policy formation in resource-rich countries Assessments of country (and project) risk issues 1994 1996: Senior Economist, DnB Markets Research on international macroeconomics and economic policies Forecasts of macroeconomic variables Investment advise for institutional investors 1991 1994: Senior Executive Officer, Research Department, Statistics Norway Academic research (macroeconomics, inter-regional economics, development economics) 1990 1991: Research fellow, Norwegian School for Economics and Business Adm. (NHH) Teaching and student supervision in macroeconomics and econometrics EDUCATION 2005 2008: PhD studies at the University of Stavanger Thesis: Investment behaviour in the international oil and gas industry 1992: PhD courses at the University of Oslo Macroeconomics and productivity analysis 1991: Cand. Oecon., Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH) International Economics, International Finance, Development Economics Thesis: Financial sector and economic development 1989: Ruhrgas scholar at the University of Mannheim Courses in Statistics and Econometrics 1988: Cand. Mag., University of Bergen Economics, History, and English
2 RESEARCH INTERESTS Macroeconomics and economic policy formation; Development economics of resource-rich countries; Economics of petroleum exploration and production; Investment behaviour in the oil and gas industry; Market valuation of international oil and gas companies; History and philosophy of science (economics); Regional modelling and analysis; Exchange rate and interest rate formation; Econometrics RESEARCH IN PROGRESS Misund, B. and K. Mohn. 2008. Exploration risk in oil and gas shareholder returns. Working Paper (April). University of Stavanger. PUBLISHED RESEARCH Hunnes, A., Kvaløy, O. og K. Mohn. 2012. An empirical study of performance appraisal and career opportunities. International Journal of Business and Management 7 (1), 22-35. Mohn, K. and B. Misund. 2011. Shifting sentiments in oil and gas investments: an application to the oil industry. Applied Financial Economics 21 (7), 469-479. Mohn, K. and P. Osmundsen. 2011. Asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation: an application to oil investment. Applied Economics 43 (28), 4387-4401. Aune, F. R, Mohn, K., Osmundsen, P. and K. E. Rosendahl. 2010. Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation. Energy Economics 32 (2), 389-398. Mohn, K. 2010. Elastic petroleum: A primer on the economics of exploration and production. Forthcoming in Bjørndal E. and Bjørndal, M. Energy, Natural Resource and Environmental Economics. London: Springer. Mohn, K. and B. Misund 2009. Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry. Energy Economics 31 (2), 240-248. Mohn, K. 2010. Autism in economics: a second opinion. Forum for Social Economics 39 (2), 191-208. Mohn, K. 2008. Efforts and Efficiency in Oil Exploration: A Vector Error-Correction Approach. The Energy Journal 30 (4), 53-78. Mohn, K. and P. Osmundsen. 2008. Exploration economics in a regulated petroleum Province. Energy Economics 30 (2), 303-320. Osmundsen, P., Mohn, K., Misund, B., and F. Asche. 2007. Is oil supply choked by financial markets? Energy Policy 35, 467-474. Osmundsen, P., Misund. B., Asche, F., and K. Mohn. 2006. Valuation of oil companies. Energy Journal 27 (3): 49-64. Osmundsen, P., Mohn K., Emhjellen. M., and F. Helgeland. 2005. Size and profitability in the international oil and gas industry. Jerome Davis (ed.) The Changing World of Oil. An Analysis of Corporate Change and Adaptation, London: Ashgate Publishing. Osmundsen, P., Asche, F., Misund B., and K. Mohn. 2004. Valuation of oil companies the RoACE era. IAEE Newsletter. 3rd Quarter 2004, 14-18, International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE). MISCELLANEOUS RESEARCH Aune, F. R, Mohn, K., Osmundsen, P. and K. E. Rosendahl. 2007. Industry restructuring, OPEC response and oil price formation. Discussion Paper 511. Statistics Norway. Osmundsen, P., Asche, F., Misund, B. and K. Mohn. 2005. Valuation of international oil companies: The RoACE era. CESIFO Working Paper 1412. 2
3 Osmundsen, P., Mohn, K. Emhjellen, M. and F. Helgeland. 2002. Størrelse og lønnsomhet i den internasjonale olje- og gassindustrien (Size and profitability in the international oil and gas industry). Arbeidsnotat nr. 34/02. Senter for samfunns- og næringslivsforskning. Mohn, Klaus. 1994c. On equity and public pricing in development countries. Discussion Paper no 123. Statistics Norway, Oslo. Mohn, Klaus. 1994b. Modelling regional producer behaviour a survey. Social and Economic Studies 86. Statistics Norway, Oslo. Mohn, Klaus. 1994a. Monetarism and structural adjustment the case of Mozambique. Reports 94/11. Statistics Norway, Oslo. Rognes, Knut and Mohn, Klaus. 1981. Pseudovespula omissa (Bischoff, 1931) recorded from Norway (Hym., Vespidae). Fauna norvegica 28, 118. RESEARCH IN NORWEGIAN Mohn, K. 2008. Takk for innsatsen! En case-studie av prestasjoner, belønning og Anerkjennelse (Performance appraisal: a case study). Søkelys på Arbeidslivet 3/08, 203-213. Mohn, K. 2008. Leting etter olje og naturgass: Tallenes tale. (Oil and gas exploration: a confession from Norwegian time series data). BETA 1/2008. Mohn, K. 2008. Oljepris, petroleumsvirksomhet og norsk økonomi. (Oil price, petroleum activity and the Norwegian economy). Samfunnsøkonomen 1/2008, 29-39. Mohn, K. 2007. Hva er det med oljeinvesteringene? (What is it about oil investment?) MAGMA 6/2007, 83-95. Mohn, K. 2007. Stoltheit og Fordom: Økonomane sitt samfunn og samfunnet sin økonomi (Pride and prejudice on the social awareness of economics). Tidsskrift for Samfunnsforskning 3/2007, 439-452. Mohn, K. 2006. Statoil, staten og samunnet (Statoil, the state and the society). Økonomisk Forum 7/06, oktober. Mohn, K. og P. Osmundsen. 2006. Letevirksomhet og ressursutvikling på norsk sokkel (Exploration and resource accumulation on the NCS). Økonomisk Forum 7/06, 27-35. Mohn, Klaus. 2006. Hva er det med økonomene? (What is it about economists? Reflections on the development of economics as a science), Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift 3/2006, 268-276. Osmundsen, P., Asche, F., og K. Mohn. 2004. Ny kunnskap om verdsetting av oljeselskaper (New insights on valuation of oil companies), Revisjon & Regnskap 5, 27-32. Osmundsen, P., Mohn, K og M. Emhjellen. 2002. Fusjoner og oppkjøp i olje- og gassindustrien størrelse og lønnsomhet (M&A activity in the oil and gas industry, on size and profitability ), in Norwegian, MAGMA 5/6 2002, 43-56. Osmundsen, P., Mohn, K., Espedal, H. og K. Løvås. 2002. Verdsetting av internasjonale olje- og gasselskaper. (Valuation of international oil and gas companies). in Norwegian, Revisjon og regnskap 5/2002, 28-36. Mohn, K. 1997. Amerikanske, tyske og norske obligasjonsrenter: Henger de sammen? (US, German and Norwegian bond yields: are they connected?), Sosialøkonomen 1, 20-30. Mohn, K. 1996. ECU-indeks, renter, dollarkurs og oljepris hva er sammenhengen? (Exchange rate, interest rates and oil price: how are they connected?), DnB Markets' Quarterly, November, 21-29. Mohn, K. og T. C. Tollefsen. 1996. Den norske avkastningskurven En analyse av helning og krumning fra 1993 til 1996 (The Norwegian yield curve slope and curvature 1993-1996) in Norwegian, DnB Markets' Quarterly, March, pp 25-30. 3
4 Mohn, K. 1995. En økonometrisk modell for kortsiktige bevegelser i det norske obligasjonsmarkedet (Modelling short-term fluctuations in the Norwegian bond market), in Norwegian, DnB Markets' Quarterly, November, 27-32. Mohn, K. Stambøl, L. S. og K. Ø. Sørensen. 1994b. Regionale arbeidsmarkeder mot år 2000 (Regional labour market developments towards 2000), in Norwegian. Economic Survey 4/94, 12-19. Statistics Norway, Oslo. Mohn, K. Stambøl, L. S. og K. Ø. Sørensen. 1994a. REGARD et regionalt modellsystem for arbeidsmarked og demografi (REGARD a regional model for labour markets and demographic developments), in Norwegian, SØS 88, Statistics Norway, Oslo. Mohn, Klaus. 1994. Den regionale sysselsettingen i 1990-årene (Forecasting regional employment trends in the 1990s). Plan & Arbeid 5-6/94, 58-61. Johansen, S., Mohn, K., Mønnesland, J. og K. Ø. Sørensen. 1993. Regionalisering av beregningsgrunnlaget for Regjeringens Langtidsprogram (A regional breakdown of the Government's Long-Term Program). Institute for Regional Research/Statistics Norway, Oslo. Mohn, K., Stambøl, L. S. and K. Ø. Sørensen. 1993a. REGARDs formelle struktur. (REGARD - the complete set of equations). Working Paper Series 93/3, Statistics Norway, Oslo. Mohn, K. 1993. Industrisysselsetting og produksjonsteknologi i norske regioner (The regional dimension of employment and production technology in Norway). Reports 93/22. Statistics Norway, Oslo. Mohn, K. 1992b. Industrien i REGARD: Regionale aspekter ved produktivitet og sysselsetting (Manufatcturing industries in REGARD: Regional aspects of employment and productivity), Economic Survey 8/92. Statistics Norway, Oslo. Mohn, Klaus. 1992a. Finanssektor og økonomisk utvikling (Financial Sector and Development Economics), Report 28/92, SNF, Bergen. ASSIGNMENTS Editor, Samfunnsøkonomen. 2013- CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS Mohn, K. Global Energy Outlook: Smooth sailing or sea change? Invited plenary speech. Annual commodity market conference, Norwegian University of Life Sciences. Oslo, 1 November 2013. Mohn, K. Prospects for PhDs in business and industry. Invited plenary speech. National Research School in Economics and Business Adm. Annual meeting. Stavanger 23 August 2013. Mohn, K. Occupational health and work climate. Paper presented at the 31th national conference for economic research. University of Oslo, 5-6 January 2009. Mohn, K. The economics of oil and gas exploration. Invited speech. Workshop in Energy, Natural Resource and Environmental Economics, The Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH), Bergen, 15-16 May 2008. Aune, F. R., Mohn, K., Osmundsen, P and K. E. Rosendahl. 2008. Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation. Paper presented at the 30th national conference for economic research. University of Oslo, 7-8 January 2008. Mohn, K. and Misund, B. 2008. Shifting sentiments in firm investment: an application to the oil industry. FIBE Conference. Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH). Bergen, 3-4 January. Mohn, K. 2007. Hvorfor skal vi bry oss med oljeinvesteringene? (Why care about oil investments?). Åpen Fagdag. University of Stavanger, 28 November 2007. 4
5 Mohn, K. 2007. Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry: a microeconometric approach. Paper presented at the 9 th IAEE Conference. Florence (Italy), 10-13 June 2007. Mohn, K. 2007. Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry: a microeconometric approach. Paper presented at the 29 th annual meeting for economic research. Tromsø, 4-5 January 2007. Mohn, K. 2006. Oil and gas exploration success: an econometric assessment. Paper presented at the 29 th International IAEE Conference. Potsdam, 7-10 June 2006. Mohn, K. and P. Osmundsen. 2005. Exploration economics in a regulated and mature petroleum province. Paper presented at the national research conference in economics. Bergen (Norway), 4 January 2006. Osmundsen, P., Misund. B., Asche, F. and K. Mohn. 2005. Valuation of oil companies. Paper presented at the 7th IAEE European Energy Conference. Bergen (Norway), 29 August 2005. SELECTED SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS 2013 Energy, oil, gas: Market and industry outlook. Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. 28 November 2013. Global energy outlook: The impact on markets and industry. Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. 27 November 2013. Energy, industry, and the economy. Norwegian School of Economics (NHH), 11 November 2013. Scarcity or abundance: On the potential market impact of light tight oil. Ministry of Finance. Spring seminar. Son, 27 May 2013 2012 Demand vs depletion: Long-term oil market fundamentals. Norges Bank seminar: Modelling and forecasting oil prices. Oslo, 22 March 2012. Aktiviteten på norsk sokkel (Industrial activity on the NCS macroeconomic implications). Breakfast seminar. Norwegian Economic Assocation. Oslo, 13 September 2012. En liten, åpen oljeøkonomi (A small, open petro economy) Seminar presentation. Norwegian Ministry of Finance. Oslo, 18 October 2012. En liten, åpen oljeøkonomi (A small, open petro economy) Seminar presentation. Norwegian Ministry of Industry and Trade. Oslo, 20 November 2012. 2008 Explaining E&P Activity: Insights From Recent Research. Solstrand Seminar in Petroleum Economics, Solstrand 21 September 2008. "Oil and Gas Investments: Why Bother?" seminar presentation, StatoilHydro (CFO management group), 1 April 2008. "Performance appraisal and career opportunities: A case study", seminar presentation, Statoil Hydro (Corporate HR Department), Stavanger, 11 March 2008. "Performance appraisal and career opportunities: A case study", seminar presentation, University of Stavanger, 21 February 2008. 5
6 SELECTED ESSAYS & COMMENTARIES (IN NORWEGIAN) Stor fallhøgd, spesielt for Vestlandet. Stavanger Aftenblad. Kronikk. 12. november 2013. Strategi etter innfallsmetoden, Dagens Næringsliv, 7. november 2013. Uro bremsar oljeboomen, Verdens Gang. Kronikk. 6. november 2013. Det er oljeprisen, dummen. Dagens Næringsliv, 20. juni 2013. Norsk naturgass: Kjøpers marked. Verdens Gang. Kronikk. 4. juni 2013. Usikkert om fornybar energi. Dagens Næringsliv, 29. juni 2012. For enkelt om olje. Dagens Næringsliv, 12. april 2012. Mulig optimisme. Dagens Næringsliv (m/kyrre M. Knudsen), 10. februar 2012. Statoil tror på fornybar energi. Bergens Tidende (m/eirik Wærness), 13. oktober 2011. Hva om euroen ryker?. Dagens Næringsliv (m/kyrre M. Knudsen), 26. september 2011. Oljen i økonomien (m/eirik Wærness), artikkel i Norsk oljemuseums årbok 2010. Prisøkning til besvær, Aftenposten, kronikk, 22. mars 2011. Den kinesiske drømmen, Stavanger Aftenblad, kronikk, 9. februar 2011. Oljen i økonomien (med Finn E. Krogh), Stavanger Aftenblad, kronikk, 9. juni 2010. Olje-Norges fremtid, Aftenposten, økonomidebatt, 6. april 2010. Hvor blir det av krisen? Aftenbladet.no/energi, kommentar, 26. juni 2009. Stormkast og bølger i norsk økonomi, Aftenbladet.no/energi, kommentar, 26. mai 2009. Tidens tegn, tallenes tale, Aftenbladet.no/energi, kommentar, 28. april 2009. Klima, økonomi og politikk, Aftenbladet.no/energi, kommentar, 24. mars 2009. Overmodig oljeby, Stavanger Aftenblad, kronikk, 25. februar 2009. Insentiver under lupen (m/ola Kvaløy), Dagens Næringsliv, debattinnlegg, 3. februar 2009. Petroleum i perspektiv, Aftenbladet.no/energi, kommentar, 27. januar 2009. Haren, skilpadden og oljeprisen. Aftenbladet.no/energi, kommentar, 19. desember 2008. Formuer for fall, Aftenbladet.no/energi, kommentar, 24. oktober 2008. Energi i finanskrisen, Aftenbladet.no/energi, kommentar, 29. september 2008. Korreksjon eller krise?, Aftenbladet.no/energi, kommentar, 4. september 2008. Har pengar søkjer olje. Stavanger Aftenblad, kronikk, 18. april 2008. Tåler vi rikdommen? Aftenposten, økonomidebatt, 12. februar 2008. Makten, æren og oljen. Stavanger Aftenblad, kommentar, 6. februar 2008. Kven skal arve Terra? Stavanger Aftenblad, kommentar, 4. desember 2007 Forstår vi hva oljen gjør med oss?, Aftenposten, økonomidebatt, 23. oktober 2007. Kva om oljeprisen fell?, Bergens Tidende, kronikk, 16. oktober 2007. Noreg køyrer på autopilot. Dag og Tid, debattinnlegg, 12. oktober 2007. Skurrande dollar-komplott. Morgenbladet, debattinnlegg, 21. september 2007. Økonomi er ei samfunnssak. Dagbladet, kronikk, 19. september 2007. Er økonomane einspora?, Stavanger Aftenblad, kommentar, 6. september 2007. Hald auge med oljeinvesteringane. Stavanger Aftenblad, kommentar, 23. Mai 2007. Me og dei andre. Sandnesposten, kronikk, 22. mai 2007. La oss åpne øynene. Stavanger Aftenblad, debattinnlegg, 24. april 2007. Industripolitisk kinder-egg. Stavanger Aftenblad, kronikk, 16. februar 2007. Platt om Sandmos historiebok. Morgenbladet, debattinnlegg, 22. desember 2006. Veksten i oljeformuen. Aftenposten, økonomidebatt, 12. desember 2006. Økonomane sin politikk. Morgenbladet, kronikk, 8. desember 2006 Når storebror blir lillebror. Stavanger Aftenblad, debattinnlegg, 6. desember 2006. Quo vadis, homo economicus?, Bergens Tidende, kronikk, 26. november 2006. For lite leting etter olje og gass. (med Petter Osmundsen) Stavanger Aftenblad, kronikk, 3. november 2006. Den vanskelege næringspolitikken. Stavanger Aftenblad, kommentar, 3. oktober 2006. Statoil, staten og samfunnet. Økonomisk Forum nr 7/06, oktober 2006. 6
7 TEACHING EXPERIENCE Financial economics Master-level course at the University of Stavanger Business School (2013-) Management accounting Bachelor course at the University of Stavanger for two years (2006 and 2007). Macroeconomics Assistant lecturer at the Norwegian School of Economics (NHH; 1989-1990, bachelor and master level courses). Guest lectures and the University of Stavanger 2008-2010 (master lavel courses). Econometrics Assistant lecturer at the Norwegian School of Economics (NHH; 1989-1990; Guest lecturer the University of Stavanger 2008-2010 (master level courses). Investment analysis Guest lecturer at the University of Stavanger 2008-2010 (master level courses). SUPERVISION OF MASTER s AND BACHELOR s THESES Master s theses Hagen, Rolv Martin. Valuation of Golar LNG. Spring 2013 Cheng, HuiHui. The Chinese growth miracle: what can make it continue, what can make it go over? Spring 2013. Haugstad, Anne. Oljen i norsk økonomi: Muligheter og utfordringer for økonomisk politikk (Oil in the Norwegian economy: opportunities and challenges for economic policies). Spring 2013. Larsen, Henriette, and Katrine Saua Mathiesen. Johan Sverdrup en realopsjonstilnærming (Valuation of offshore oil field Johan Sverdrup: a real options approach). Spring 2012. Corneliussen, Jan R. og Anette Frækaland. Verdivurering og strategisk analyse av STREAM AS (Valuation and strategic assessment of STREAM AS). Spring 2012. Skjørestad, Thomas. Verdsetting av oljeselskaper: En case-studie av Rocksource (Valuation of oil companies: a case study of Rocksource). Spring 2011. Urstad, Marius. Oljepris og aksjemarked: En økonometrisk analyse (Oil price and equity market: An econometric assessment). Spring 2011. Langeland, S. Investeringer som konjunkturfaktor (The role of investments in the business cycle). Spring 2010. Horneland, J. T. and P. A. Pham. Finanskrisen virkninger for norsk økonomi (The financial crisis and the Norwegian economy). Spring 2010. Eidesvik, M. Alternative energikilder på norske offshore-skip (Alternative fuels for Norwegian offshore supply ships: An investment analysis). Spring 2010. Matre, M. Vindkraft offshore utvikling og investering (Offshore windpower: Development and investment). Spring 2010. Bachelor s theses Musaeva, Aminat. Problems and prospects of cooperation between oil and gas companies of Norway and Russia in The Barents Sea. Spring 2013. Gonzalez, Reyna. Market outlook and structure facing Ocean Intaller AS in the oil and gas industry. Spring 2013. Nord-Varhaug, Gunnar. Inflasjonsstyring i en liten, åpen petroleumsøkonomi (Inflation targeting in a small, open petro economy). Spring 2012. 7
8 Byberg, Geir Olav. Boligmarked og prisdannelse i Norge (Housing market and price formation in Norway). Spring 2012. Mæland, Eirik. Virkninger av petroleumsvirksomheten på økonomien i Stavanger-regionen (Regional economic impact of petroleum activity). Spring 2012. Strømsvåg, Anders. The price responsiveness of US gasoline demand: What has changed? Spring. 2012. Hussein, Hina, Radoniai, Aida og Christine Runestad. Hva kan forklare forskjellene i arbeidsledighet mellom Norge og Europa? (Explanations of differences in unemployment between Norway and Europe). Spring 2012 Dima, Alla og Irina Danilova. Oil price surge and impact to Russian domestic economy. Spring 2012. Cheng, HuiHui. Economics, energy, and the environment in China s 12 th 5-year plan. Spring 2011. Larsen, Marie Gellein. Sanksjoner mot Iran: Hva er vitsen? (Sanctions against Iran: What is the point?). Spring 2011. Vadla, Magnus Rasmussen. Peak Oil : Hva sier økonomifaget? (On the economics of Peak Oil). Spring 2011. Alsvik, Lasse. Hollandsk syke i norsk økonomi? (The Dutch disease and the Norwegian economy). Spring 2011. Dybdahl Johannessen, H. Finanskrisen og gassvirksomheten (The financial crisis and the gas industry). Spring 2010. Risa, T, Stokka, Ø. and N. Åmås. Pengepolitikk, stabilisering og formuespriser (Monetary policies, stabilisation, and the role asset prices). Spring 2010. Drange, M. and K. Bjelland. Finanskrisen og oljemarkedet (The financial crisis and the oil market). Spring 2010. 8