Renteforventninger 02.12.2010 Bjørn Sivertsen SpareBank 1 SR-Markets
Hovedpunkter Internasjonalt Råvarer i støtet Aksjer Frakt rater Gjeldsnivå i Europa Kina Finansieringskostnader for banker Norge Oljeinvesteringer Renteforventninger Oppsummering Page 2
Utvalgte råvarepriser Page 3
Nok et bra år bak oss i aksjemarkedet Page 4
Fraktratene stiger med ikke i takt med børs 16000 8000 4000 2000 1000 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Fraktraten, Baltic Dry 500 Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Markets Page 5
Brutto statsgjeld for utvalgte land i Europa 150,00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 130,00 110,00 90,00 70,00 50,00 30,00 10,00-10,00 Kilde: Bank of International Settlement Page 6
Hva betaler PIIGS mer en Tyskland Page 7
OECD ledende indikatorer for Kina og råvarepriser Page 8
Finansieringskostnadene for banker stiger med stats-gjelds utfordringene 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Markit iboxx, Europe, Senior Financials, 5 Year, Bid Spread Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Markets 0 Page 9
Nasjonale forhold Page 10
Oljeinvesteringene øker igjen i 2011 Page 11
Industriproduksjonen har økt kraftig men vi har enda mye å gå på 10,0 7,5 5,0 2,5 0,0-2,5-5,0-7,5-10,0-12,5-15,0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Kapasitetsutnyttelsen Industriproduksjonen, % år/år 87,5 85,0 82,5 80,0 77,5 75,0 72,5 70,0 67,5 65,0 62,5 Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Markets Page 12
Kredittveksten har kommet godt ned 22,5 20,0 17,5 15,0 12,5 10,0 7,5 5,0 2,5 0,0-2,5-5,0-7,5-10,0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Bedrifter (eks. finans) Husholdningene Kredittveksten (K2) Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Bank Page 13
Lange renter stiger igjen 2007 2008 2009 2010 EMU: 10 års swap NORGE USA 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Markets Page 14
Vår prognose for norske renter 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt 2007 2008 2009 2010 Foliorenten 5 års swap 10 års swap 3 mnd NIBOR feb jun okt 2011 Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Markets 0 Page 15
Dagens renter NOK 3 mnd Nibor: 2,53% Swaprenter 1 år: 2,98% 3 år: 3,18% 5 år: 3,58% 7 år: 3,85% 10 år: 4,19% Page 16
Oppsummering Norges Bank hever rentene våren 2011 Rentene vil øke gradvis i 2011 (2-4 ganger) Høyere lånekostnader for bankene vil begrense Norges Bank Sterk NOK kan bli en utfordring Gjeldsbyrden i Europa begrenser veksten Rentene forblir lave ut 2012 Kina kan muligens skuffe i forhold til vekstforventningene i 2011 Inflasjons-sjokk og råvareprisutvikling gir risk på oppsiden Page 17
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