Tone Merete Muthanna, NTNU

Transkript

1 BINGO Bringing INnovation to ongoing water management a better future under climate change The BINGO project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, under the Grant Agreement number Tone Merete Muthanna, NTNU Nasjonal Vannkonferanse 2-3. November The BINGO project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, under the Grant Agreement number 1

2 WP1 Coordination WP3 Analysis of he water cycle WP5 isk treatment nd adaptation strategies WP7 Dissemination and exploitation WP2 Climate predictions and downscaling WP4 Impacts of extreme weather events WP6 Excellence and actionable research Bringing INnovation to ongoing Water Management Funded by Horizon 2020 Coordinated by LNEC - Portugal Providing practical knowledge and tools to end users, water managers and decision-makers to better cope with all climate projections, including droughts and floods. The BINGO project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, under the Grant Agreement number The Netherla nds The Veluwe Germany Wupper River Basin Portugal Tagus Spain Badalon Cyprus a Troodos Mou ntains Norway Bergen BINGO Research Sites 2

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4 BINGO: Bringing INnovation to ongoing water management - a better future under climate change ( ) aims at providing practical knowledge and tools to end-users, water managers, decision and policy-makers affected by climate change to enable them to better cope with all climate projections, including droughts and floods. gcg 5

5 Klimaendringer i Norge Risvollan-studiet: stabile nedbørmengder i historiske data, men fant endringer i sesongvise variasjoner / nedbørsmønstre Norsk klimaservicesenter: Sterke indikasjoner på økt nedbør som følge av økte temperaturer i fremtiden 5-30% økning i årlig nedbør i Norge Klimaprofiler: Sesongviseendringer for fylker Varierende klimapåslåg døgnnedbør for de ulike fylkene 40% påslag regnhendelser av varighet < 3 timer 7

6 Usikkerhet i klimaprojeksjoner Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Forklaring Usikkerhet knyttet til fremtidige utslipp Usikkerhet knyttet til utslippenes påvirkning på klimasystemet Usikkerhet knyttet til naturlig variasjon i klima Årsak Menneskelig atferd og beslutninger Epistemisk Epistemisk Løsning Bruk av scenarioer Modell ensemble: ulike modeller med ulike parameterinnstillinger Eksperiment ensemble: Ulike startbetingelser for modellen Ekström et al. 2015: An apppraisal of downscaling methods used in climate change research 8

7 Usikkerhet i klimaprojeksjoner Eksempel på verktøy Software: R Open souce programmeringsspråk for statistiske beregninger Pakke: esd Funksjoner for behandling av data (observasjoner, GCM resultater, etc) og nedskalering Legger til rette for å nedskalere flere scenarioer, modeller og startbetingelser (fange type 1,2 og 3 usikkerhet) Benestad et al.. (2015). esd V1.0. Zenodo /zenodo ( 9

8 Usikkerhet Fra utslipp til konsekvens: Lokalt klima 10

9 Usikkerhet (Wilby and Dessai, 2010) 11

10 Usikkerhet Usikkerhet GCM Nedskalering Konsekvens Økt usikkerhet Maurun, D. (2015). Uncertainty [Power Point Presentation]. 12

11 Usikkerhet Usikkerhet Antakelser GCM Nedskalering Konsekvens Økt usikkerhet Redusert usikkerhet Maurun, D. (2015). Uncertainty [Power Point Presentation]. 13

12 Hvordan ta beslutninger Predict then act Robust decions Climate informed decisions Strategier basert på projeksjoner av konsekvenser som følge av klimaendringer Fullstendig avhengig av scenario-valg Top-down approach Cascading uncertainty Strategier basert på sårbarhetsanalyser En robust løsning fungerer godt i ulike scenarioer Bottom-up Robust, men ikke optimal Koble sårbarhetsanalyser med klimaprjeksjoner Bruke informasjon om fremtidig klima til å prioritere risiko, fremfor å identifisere risiko 14

13 Risk management process (IS0 3100:2009) 15

14 Risiko i BINGO 16

15 Risiko i BINGO H A Z A R D S R = P «x» C Uønsket hendelse K O N S E K V E N S E R Risikotilpasning: redusere risikoen ved å dempe konsekvensene, e.g. ved å sikre trygge flomveier 17

16 City of Bergen founded 1070 a.c. Area 450 km 2 Population Yearly precipitation: 2250 mm Bergen #S Oslo # 18 18

17 Our goal: Clean water to the People and the Fjords Vann- og avløpsetaten Fjøsangerveien 68 Pb Bergen

18 Bergen The most rainy city in Europe! (1622 mm so far this year ) The City has a long tradition in water management. Some of the existing water systems are about to reach their limit of capacity, due to Climate change and urbanisation Increasing intensity and amount of precipitation But can we also expect longer periods with dry weather? Sea Level will rise Overflow from the sewer systems will increase (CSO) Bryggen will be flooded more often Climate change has to be taken into account In planning, operation and maintenance (water supply, sewage and storm water) In risk, vulnerability and preparedness planning What we construct today shall be functioning in the coming 100 years 20 20

19 WATER SUPPLY IN BERGEN The water supply system consists of: 6 water treatment plants 61 dams 36 water basins ( m3) 920 km pipelines 90 pump stations manholes valves (distribution system) Replacement costs are estimated to be approx. 15 billion NOK (1,7 billion EUR) Annual water production: 34,5 million m3 (2014) Approx. 97% of the city s inhabitants are served

20 Hydrological Assessment of Water Resources in Bergen Climate Change Impacts Devise a framework for evaluating climate change impact on water resources in Bergen and reliability of water supply Master s Thesis Spring 2015 Erle Kristvik and Birthe Riisnes of GCMs 22

21 Hydrological Assessment of Water Resources in Bergen Climate Change Impacts Results Seasonal inflow changes: Changes in maximum supply capacity and drinking water demand: 23

22 THE SEWERAGE SYSTEM IN BERGEN The sewerage system consists of: 6 major waste water treatment plants 14 minor waste water treatment plants 850 km sewer pipelines 360 km surface water pipelines 160 pump stations sewer manholes 8000 surface water manholes Replacement costs are estimated to be approx. 15 billion NOK (1,7 billion EUR) Approx. 90% of the city s inhabitants are connected

23 Adaptation to Climate change water in focus. Vann- og avløpsetaten Fjøsangerveien 68 Pb Bergen

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27 BINGO PARTNERS The BINGO project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, under the Grant Agreement number