SKAGEN m 2 Statusrapport april 2015

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1 SKAGEN m 2 Statusrapport april 205

2 Hovedtrekk SKAGEN m 2 april 205 SKAGEN m2 falt 7% i april, mens MSCI sin eiendomsindeks falt 6,2% i samme periode. SKAGEN m2 opplevde litt pengeflyt ut på grunn av et svakt marked. En kombinasjon av økt frykt for høyere renter og den sedvanlige selg-i-mai skremte unna investorer. På den annen side fortsetter investorenes fokus på kontantstrøm og utbytter å tiltrekke interesse for eiendomssektoren, så det var mest sannsynlig en kortvarig utvikling. Ved utgangen av måneden steg lange obligasjonsrenter, spesielt i USA og Tyskland. Det var mange grunner til dette, inkludert frykt for renteøkninger i USA, Grexit og det europeiske stimulanseprogrammet. Vi solgte oss ut av China South City Holding. Grunnen til at vi solgte oss ut var økt risiko rundt salg og prosjektutsettelser. Selskapet var beste bidragsyter i april. Vinnerne i måneden var i all hovedsak kinesiske eller Hongkong baserte selskaper på grunn av den sterke utviklingen deres aksjemarkeder, men også på grunn av spekulasjon om stimulanser av boligmarkedet og endret styringsrente. Vi kjøpte ingen nye aksjer. De dårligste bidragsyterne i april var Ashford, BR Properties og General Shopping. General Shopping kjemper med for mye USD-gjeld og vi har solgt oss ned over noe tid (0.2 % av porteføljen). BR Properties er midt i en kamp mellom aksjonærer, hvorav hovedaksjonær vil kjøpe opp og splitte selskapet. Ashford hadde svake resultater og det er uklart hvordan inntjeningen skal fordeles mellom aksjonærer og ledelse. De beste markedene i april var Kina og Hongkong. USA var et av de svakeste markedene. Bare India var svakere. Utviklingen i USA var påvirket av svekkelsen i amerikanske dollar. De 0 største posten er nå 36% av porteføljen. SKAGEN m2 er nå 53 poster og 2% i kontanter. 2

3 Avkastning, april 205 A April QTD Hittil i år Siden start* SKAGEN m2 A -7,0% -7,0% 4,0% 7,6% MSCI ACWI Real Estate -6,4% -6,4% 5,2% 23,5% Relativ avkastning -0,6% -0,6% -,2% -5,9% 3 Note: Alle tall ut over 2 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning) * Startdato: 3 oktober 202

4 Markedsutvikling i april i NOK (%) Kina (Hong Kong) 22 Kina (lokal) Norge 3 22 Hong Kong Vekstmarksindeksen Canada Singapore UK Verdensindeksen Australia Brasil Japan Sør-Afrika Tyrkia Frankrike Tyskland Thailand MSCI Eiendomsindeks SKAGEN M2 Philippinene Indonesia USA India -3-4

5 Markedsutvikling hittil i år i NOK (%) Kina (Hong Kong) Kina (lokal) Philippinene Frankrike Japan Sør-Afrika Hong Kong Norge Vekstmarksindeksen UK Singapore Verdensindeksen Australia Tyskland Canada MSCI Eiendomsindeks SKAGEN M2 Thailand India Indonesia USA Tyrkia Brasil

6 Største bidragsytere, april 205 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap NOK (000) China South City Holdings SOHO China 946 Olav Thon Eiendom Kinesiske eiendomsaksjer gjorde det bra på generell børsoppgang og spekulasjoner om pengepolitiske letter. Kinesiske eiendomsaksjer gjorde det bra på generell børsoppgang og spekulasjoner om pengepolitiske letter. 605 En av de billigste selskapene i Europa. Selskapet vil omvurderes på solide resultater. Etalon Group 265 Valutaeffekt og bedre sentiment i Europa. Shangri-La Asia 804 Shimao Property Holdings 759 First Real Estate Investment Trust 423 Global Logistic Properties Ingen spesifikke nyheter. Kinesiske eiendomsaksjer gjorde det bra på generell børsoppgang og spekulasjoner om pengepolitiske letter. God selskapsrapport. 278 GLP begynner å dra nytte av JV i Kina. Ingen spesifikke nyheter. CSI Properties 267 Solgt ut. Sterk utvikling i Kina og Hongkong. Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 6

7 Største bidragsytere, april 205 Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK (000) Brandywine Realty Trust HCP Ingen spesifikke nyheter. Lite etterspørsel etter amerikanske REITS. Også tynget av problemer med en leietager. General Growth Properties Ingen spesifikke nyheter. Ingen spesifikke nyheter. Ashford Hospitality Trust PS Business Parks CBL & Associates Properties SL Green Realty Apartment Investment & Man Ashford Columbia Property Trust Ingen spesifikke nyheter. Ingen spesifikke nyheter. Sterke resultater. Sterke resultater. Svake resultater og selskapsstyringsutfordringer. Sterke resultater. Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 7

8 Største bidragsytere, YTD 205 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK (000) Selskap NOK (000) Olav Thon Eiendom # Ashford Hospitality Trust Mitsui Fudosan # HCP Global Logistic Properties # Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Melia Hotels International # Brandywine Realty Trust First Real Estate Investment Trust 3 47 # Ticon Industrial Connection -3 6 SOHO China 3 2 # CBL & Associates Properties Mercialys # PS Business Parks Keppel Land # General Shopping Brazil Deutsche Wohnen # General Growth Properties Westgrund # Nomura Real Estate Office Fund Total verdiskapning YTD (NOK MM): 26 Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 8

9 Viktigste endringer hittil i 205 Q Shangri-La Asia HCP Ashford Hospitality Trust SOHO China Mitsui Fudosan Global Logistic Properties Olav Thon (New) Keppel Land Lexington Realty Trust Unibail-Rodamco Citycon CSI Properties (Out) (Out) Q Q2 CA Immobilien Anlagen Emlak Konut SL Green Realty China South City Holdings BR Malls Participacoes Citycon (Out) Q2 + Økte posisjoner -- Reduserte posisjoner 9

10 Største kjøp og salg i april 205 Kjøp Salg CA Immobillien Kjøpte på korreksjon. Langsiktig verdiskaper priset med rabatt. Forsøkte å kjøpe Immofinanz, men mislyktes. SL Green Langsiktig verdiskaper på Manhattan. China South City (out) Steg etter skuffende start i porteføljen på grunn av dårlige salgstall og rykter om statlig etterforskning av Shenzhen-utviklere. CSCH ikke inkludert, men ble med i dragsuget. Vi solgte oss ut etter skarp opptur fordi vi ikke kan se noen positiv utvikling i salg og indikasjoner om forsinkelser i prosjekter. Risikoen ble dermed for stor, selv om selv om forretningsmodellen er interessant og selskapet handler på svært lave multipler. Citycon Fortsatte nedsalget 0

11 Største poster i SKAGEN m2 pr. 30. april 205 Postens størrelse Pris P/NAV siste Div. Yield 205e EBITDA 205e/EV Global Logistic Properties Ltd 4,0% 2,75 0% 2,% 4.4% HCP 3,8% 40,65 24% 5.8% 6.3% Olav Thon 3,7% 65 00%,% 5,8% Columbia Property Trust 3,7% 26,32 80% 4.5% 5.7% Soho China Ltd 3,6% 5,89 00% 2.4% 5,4% General Growth Properties 3,6% 27,69 90% 2,6% 5.4% Brandywine Realty Trust 3,5% 4,58 90% 4,2% 7,9% Ashford Hospitality Trust 3,4% 8,99 80% 5.4% 9.% Mitsui Fudosan 3,3% 356,5 2% 0.7% 5.% Apartment Investment & Man. 3,% 38,5 95% 3,% 5,6% Weighted top % 98% 3.4% 6.0% Weighted top % 3.3% 6.4% Benchmark 3.2%actual

12 Geografisk fordeling versus referanseindeksen (%) 52 Fond Indeks Asia ex Japan EMEA Frontier Markets Japan Kjerne EU Nord Amerika Norden Perifer EU Oceania Sør Amerika Kontanter 2

13 Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper på engelsk

14 Key earnings releases and corporate news April Mercialys, France (2.%) Mapletree Logistic Trust, Singapore (2.%) Atrium Ljungberg, Sweden (0.9%) 4 Strong headline growth Summary: Mercialys published its Q5 turnover results. Total rental income growth came out at +7.4% YoY. Like-for-like rental growth came out at +2.5%, which includes a -0.% indexation impact, +0.8% impact from the roll-out of the specialty leasing programme and +.9% uplift from reviews. Total LFL rental growth thereby came out in line with management s guidance of >200bps over indexation. However the impact from the specialty leasing programme is a one-off effect. Management reported strong footfall (+.6%) and retailer sales growth (+.4%) in the portfolio versus the French average (-0.2 and -0.8% respectively). The results did not include a revaluation result. Last year, 80% of valuation was driven by yield compression, while it was mainly driven by rental growth in the three years before FY4. Implications for the investment case: Solid quarter in line with guidance. 204 dividend was also announced of EUR.24/share which gives 6.6% yield on EPRA NNNAV of EUR 8.85/share. In line FY4/5 numbers, strong value uplift. Summary: FY NPI growth of 3.7% came from positive rental reversions and acquisitions. It didn t flow through to DPU because of higher borrowing costs and enlarged issued units. FY NPI margin was down 2 percentage points due to higher land rent, property tax and downtime as some assets were converted from single-user assets (SUAs) to multi-tenanted buildings (MTBs). Leasing activity was mixed; strong in HK, less so in China and Singapore. MLT achieved positive rental reversion of 8% for FY. MLT reported strong +0% NAV gain, ahead of peers. Value lift was driven largely by redevelopments and to a lesser extent better portfolio performance. DPU declined 2.% YoY. MLT has 30.6% gearing, 2.3% cost of debt, 87% fixed. Implications for the investment case: In line report, company still suffers from conversion from SUAs to MTBs and will do so during the year before it starts producing rents. Value uplift was a positive surprise and proves MLT s asset quality and redevelopment potential. The leasing environment has slowed somewhat and improving occupancies will be a key focus going forward. MLT offers a good geographic diversification and defensive logistic long-lease exposure. Organic demand for logistic space is generally healthy across overseas markets where MLT operates, although Singapore (and to some extent China) is currently facing a challenging leasing environment. Triggers are further acquisitions or redeveloping older assets. Risk is hiked interest rates in Singapore that will hurt DPU. In line Q5 report, strong value uplift. Summary: Rental revenues amounted to SEK 55m (+4% YoY), in line with expectations. Economic occupancy unchanged at 93%. Net letting during Q was a good SEK 7m. In addition a larger letting was announced yesterday of a recently completed largely vacant property in Sickla to Stora Enso, which should add some SEK m in net letting to Q2 and reduce Atrium s economic vacancy rate by 0.5pp by June this year. NOI from property management was SEK 344m (+5% YoY). Value write-ups of SEK 366m, equivalent to.4% of the property value is positive. Falling swap rates during the quarter generated negative value changes on derivatives of SEK 99m. CEO made positive remarks on both the rental market, noting improving rental markets in the larger cities in the first quarter, and the property market, explaining the write-ups. This is equivalent to NAV SEK 07. Implications for the investment case: No major news; an OK report in line with expectations. Guidance for 205 profit before value changes at SEK 920m (+9% YoY). Long-term project pipeline estimated at SEK 0bn, also unchanged to Q4. The balance sheet remains strong compared to most Swedish peers with a net loan-to-value of 44.8%. Company is trading at high multiples and we monitor the position; news about project pipeline could be a positive surprise.

15 Key earnings releases and corporate news April (cont.) First REIT, Singapore (.6%) AIT, Singapore (0.9%) Q5 report in line, defensive growth. Summary: Revenue +0.% YoY. Net property income rose +9.3% YoY, due to higher operating expenses at Sarang Hospital in South Korea, property tax and building audit fees. Latest adjusted book value was largely unchanged at S$.02. First REIT reported Q5 distribution per unit up 3.5% YoY, representing a yield of 6%. Lippo Karawaci has a healthy pipeline of 30 hospitals and First REIT has the right of first refusal over these assets. Historically, First REIT acquired hospitals from sponsor at NPI yields of 9-0%, which were accretive to unitholders. Gearing at 33%. Without a credit rating, the maximum gearing allowed is 35%. This suggests a combination of equity and debt for its next major acquisition. Implications for the investment case: A quarter with no surprises, the stock has delivered good returns as a defensive player in the m2 portfolio. First REIT offers stable income with long-dated master leases and rents paid in SGD from its Indonesian assets, which means no FX risks from rupiah volatility. Indonesia is continuous focus. Country s healthcare market remains robust and the implementation of its universal healthcare scheme, introduced in Jan 204, has been one of the major drivers as part of the initiatives by the new government elected in 204. The expectation is higher patient volumes. Also, the growing middle-class and younger Indonesia consumers will be seeking better quality and faster services in private medical facilities. FY4/5 in line, interesting growth pipeline and exposure to turning office sentiment in India Summary: For FY 4/5 property income grew 6% YoY mainly due to income from Aviator which became operational in January 204, and positive rental reversions in Chennai. NPI grew 7% during the year due to positive spread between revenue and property expenses. Occupancy rate at 97% and WALE 5.3 years. Portfolio valuation improved by 5% on a like-for-like basis, NAV came in at S$0.68. LTV of 25% and avg. rate at 6.7%. AIT still has huge debt headroom before reaching debt cap (from 25 to 60% LTV) which gives them lot of acquisition space. Dividend per unit increased 6% in INR and represents a yield of 5.%. Implications for the investment case: AIT s portfolio has good growth potential over the next couple of years via committed acquisitions and developments completed and stabilising. This would lead to a much higher growth in floor area than the trust has delivered since This would be the primary driver of NPI growth over the years to come. Management announced that they are looking at new geographies such as Gurgaon/Mumbai to increase the floor area of the portfolio. Driver of the stock would be a stronger office market in India. Continuous rate cuts and rent reversions further are driving down cap rates. Increased volume growth in the portfolio driven by new developments and acquisitions. Some of these positives are likely to be priced in and, as the stock has been a good performer over the last 6 months, it can no longer be considered cheap. Nonetheless, AIT is still the best way for SKAGEN m2 to get risk-adjusted exposure to income-producing Indian office property. 5

16 Key earnings releases and corporate news (cont.) Gecina, France (.4%) Q update in line with expectations. Summary: Paris prime office owner, provided update on Q rental. Gross rental was down.9% LFL, as recurrent net income (FFO) was up 4.9% due to cost reductions and interest savings. The company has made two new investments and is on track with its 205 schedule regarding acquisitions and disposals. Implications for the investment case: The market was quite happy with the update. The company FFO 5 is expected to be 5.3 on a share price of 20. It is trading at a premium to NAV that may decrease because of increased NAV. General Growth Property, US (3.6%) Strong Q results. Excellent deal in Manhattan. Summary: Tenants sales increased 4% to USD 590/sqf. The FFO was USD The company seems to be able to increase FFO by 9% this year. They sold off 37.5% in Ala Moana Center in Honolulu, Hawaii for gross proceeds of USD 2.2bn, and.5bn after debt. The whole mall is valued at USD 6bn. They also acquired a building on 57th Street/5 th Avenue in Manhattan after Q. In total, their debt was reduced by USD bn, but increased after Q due to Manhattan acquisition. They assumed that after selling the upper floor of their Manhattan acquisition that initial rents on the remaining purchase price will be 5-6%, demonstrating their ability to make extremely good deals on the world s most prestigious avenue. Implications for the investment case: This is the kind of company that creates long-term value and is hard to sell. They are currently trading at 90% of NAV (but NAV is substantially up on reduced cap rates), and we keep it as a cornerstone of the portfolio. The market is searching for good investments and companies with higher debt levels that have the capacity to deploy money. GGP was criticised for their high debt level, but it has gained acceptance. Capitaland, Singapore (.0%) Weak Q5 report weak like-for-like. Summary: Operating profit was down significantly if fair value gain and acquisition of Capitamall are removed. The weak market in China and Singapore continues to take its toll. The company has a long history of weak operational performance, but is one of the biggest names in Asia. Implications for the investment case: Hope for a better future is what has driven the share price movements this year. The company s long-term results are weak, but we continue to hold a stake in the company on hopes of improved performance going forward. They are also obviously a large player in the region. 6

17 Key earnings releases and corporate news (cont.) CBL Properties, US (2.5%) PS Business Parks, US (3.%) Q in line, extremely cheap, does not act in a way the market likes Summary: CBL Properties, B/C-mall owner, provided unpopular results. The occupancy declined from 92.5 to 90.9 due to bankrupt retailers. However, due to this, they were able to increase net operating income slightly. The company guided an impressive FFO at 2.3 per share, meaning above 2% FFO yield which is extremely cheap. It is hated for its high debt level (50%, meaning low before 2007) and reluctance to sell assets at too low prices. Implications for the investment case: All major stockholders have increased their holdings lately. This is a company that is trading at significant discount to NAV (>20 %) and will be able to reposition the portfolio when they find it opportune to do so. We await good news and may increase our holding in this most reviled stock. Q results in line, increasing rents. Summary: PS Business Parks reported Q results in line with releasing spreads of 4.9%. Same park rental income increased.3% and total rental income including repositioning parts of their portfolio increased 3.2%. Net operating income was up 4.4% while cost only increased.0% due to some disposition activity. The balance sheet is extremely strong with only 2% ordinary debt and 26% preferred equity. Lack of investments may force them to distribute more cash. Implications for the investment case: The company harvests from their investments in bad times such as these. They continue to work for the long term and don t try to be smart. This means that they create long-term value regardless of stock market volatility and noise. So you may not see any growth at present, but they may well distribute extra cash. Brandywine, US (3.5%) In line Q5 report, but slightly disappointing Summary: Brandywine announced results in line with expectations. The company is still struggling with the Washington area that has not met expectations regarding recovery. Occupancy was down. QoQ and cash leasing spread was down 0.7%. The guidance was not changed, which is usually a sign of weakness. Implications for the investment case: The result was slightly disappointing. However, the company is obviously cheap with an expected FFO yield close to 0% (9% adjusted) and EBITDA yield of 7.7%. In addition, they pay 5% on interest, meaning there is lots of room for improvement on both financing and occupancy. 7

18 The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of April 5 GLP is Asia's largest provider of modern logistics facilities. The company owns, manages and leases over 700 completed properties spread across 77 cities in China, Japan, Brazil and US forming an efficient network with assets strategically located in key hubs, industrial zones and urban distribution centres. The USD 27bn property portfolio comprises 28m sqm serving more than 800 customers. The Japan portfolio is mostly completed and stabilised providing strong operating cash flow to fund the group's growing business in China. The company also set up a China fund at the end of 203 to enable recycling in the Chinese market in line with their Japanese model. This business model leads to a more effective capital structure, recurring income and capital recycling (listing of J-REIT & CLF fund). HCP is a fully integrated self-administered real estate investment trust that acquires, manages, and invests in healthcare (largest sector of US economy relative to GDP) real estate located in the US and Mexico. HCP is well diversified across healthcare property types: senior housing (35% of NOI), skilled-nursing facilities (3%), medical office (3%), life science/labs (5%), and hospitals (6%). HCP has USD 22bn in AUM and a well-balanced portfolio of 63 properties. Company has generated ~6% compound annual returns since IPO 985, and had 29 years of consecutive dividend growth. Olav Thon owns a portfolio of 65 shopping malls and in addition manages 27 malls for external owners. The company also owns office buildings, restaurants and hotels (2 NOT Thon Hotels) located primarily in the Oslo area. 76% of income from malls; 24% from commercial real estate, mainly office/retail. Listed on Oslo Stock Exchange in 983. Gross (inclusive JV) lettable space is as follows: Shopping malls:.0 m2 and commercial estate 263 m2. Diversified into Sweden in Q34 after buying 5 shopping malls of 22 m2 for NOK 3bn. Columbia Property Trust, Inc. focuses on the acquisition, development, ownership, leasing, and operation of office properties. Own 59 office buildings, total 6.5m sqf (.6m m2) valued at USD 5.bn. The company was listed without any equity issue in Oct. 203 to provide liquidity for shareholders. Bought back shares during Q4 after listing. Core focus is 6 main cities throughout US. 50% CBD and 50% suburban exposure. Occupancy rate 92%, Financial, 9%. From externally managed to internally managed properties. Founded in 995, listed in HK in Leading commercial property developer in China with # position in central Beijing, expanding into Shanghai, developing offices and retail space. Unique office design focused on small and medium-sized business owners using internationally recognised architects. CEO and co-founder is ex Goldman Sachs IB and husband and co-founder is chairman with 25 years of real estate development experience. Company is in transition phase from build to sell to own for lease that will be finalised in 208. This model is a better and more sustainable way to capitalise its prime assets in Beijing and Shanghai, and to reduce earnings volatility. New business model will lead to long-term recurring cash flow. 8

19 The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of April 5 (cont.) General Growth Properties (GGP), founded in 954, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, leases, manages and develops shopping centres. The company is the second largest mall operator in the world. The company holds interests in 20 malls, 7 office properties and 6 other properties generating an average of USD 564 in tenant sales per square foot (malls). Brandywine Realty Trust is a self-administered, self-managed and fully integrated real estate investment trust. The company is engaged in the ownership, management, leasing, acquisition, and development of primarily suburban office properties. It also owns an interest in and operates a commercial real estate management services company. 209 buildings totalling 24.m sqf (2.m m 2 ). 82 office, 9 industrial and 5 mixed use in addition to 4 redevelopment properties. They are also part of 9 unconsolidated JVs. Ashford Hospitality Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on investing opportunistically in the hospitality industry across all segments and at all levels of the capital structure primarily within the United States. Invests opportunistically in the whole capital structure including lending to other hotel owners. Ashford Hospitality Trust owns 5 hotels (directly and in JV with Prudential). Established in 94, Mitsui Fudosan has been an active leader in the Japanese real estate industry, successfully developing new business opportunities and establishing a dominant position. The company is involved in office leasing, commercial facilities, condominium development, investment property development and REITS. 8% of MF s assets are located on other continents. Strong balance sheet after capitalisation (first in 23 years) in summer of 204. Good integrated and balanced growth model with development and investment properties diversified among different RE sub segments. Management business (car park leasing, property management) provides stable earnings growth over time, in addition to other recurring earnings from commercial assets, to balance the volatility in the development segment. Apartment Investment & Management is a US REIT focused on multi-family rental buildings, with some 66,000 apartments in top 20 markets. The number of apartments has been dramatically reduced since 2004 from over 60,000 (net owned) in 00 markets to today s number, of which 56 are so called Conventional and 0 Affordable. Sold off a lot apartments in and used USD bn on share buybacks. The company bought back 24% of outstanding shares from 2Q06 until Oct. 08, but had to issue equity at a lower price in 09. Current strategy was implemented in 2005 and is to sell 2 apartments to buy with better location and higher quality. 9

20 Ønsker du mer informasjon? Se vår siste markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN m 2 på våre hjemmesider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved tegning og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.