SKAGEN m 2 Statusrapport desember 2016

Transkript

1 SKAGEN m 2 Statusrapport desember 216

2 Oppsummering desember var det beste relative året for SKAGEN M2 så langt. Fondet steg 4,8 prosent, mens MSCI Real Estate IMI var opp 1,2 prosent. SKAGEN M2 økte med 3,5 prosent i desember, sammenlignet med 3,3 prosent for referanseindeksen. En hovedgrunn til den gode avkastningen I løpet av året var en sterkere fokusering på selskaper med aktiv forretningsmodell og dem som leverer langsiktig verdiskapning. Vi konsentrerte også porteføljen videre og endte året med 37 aksjer. De tre beste bidragsyterne i desember var D. Carnegie, Ashford Trust og Global Logistics Properties. D. Carnegie var den store vinneren også for året både hva gjelder absolutt og relativ avkastning. Selskapet fortsatte å gjøre det bra på grunn av fundamentale forhold og sin nye majoritetseier Blackstone. GLP annonserte at selskapet er i innledende samtaler om et potensielt salg av selskapet. Hvis det kommer en transaksjon vil dette bli en av de størst oppkjøpene i Asia-Pacific noensinne. Ashford er en hotelleier og prisene blir satt hver dag, noe som betyr beskyttelse mot inflasjon hvis rentene begynner å stige. De største negative bidragsyterne i desember var Soho China og Phoenix begge med små tap. Vi innledet i løpet av desember en investering i den italienske kontoreieren Beni Stabili. Selskapet har vært under press i mange år på grunn av en avhenging het av en leietaker nemlig Telecom Italia samt høyt gjeldsnivå. De har nylig satt i gang en rotasjonsstrategi for aktiva og er mindre avhenging av en kunde og mindre gjeld. Fondet kjøpte seg inn i tidlig desember, som var før valget i Italia, og aksjene ble kjøpt på lave nivåer. Vi solgte oss ut av år obligasjon i General Shopping etter en oppgang på 45 prosent i løpet av året. Topp 1 og 35 poster var 48 prosent og 95 prosent av fondet, respektivt. SKAGEN m2 var ved utgangen av 216 investert i 37 selskaper og kontantbeholdningen av 3,4 prosent. Vi takker våre andelseiere for tilliten i løpet av året. * Med mindre annet er oppgitt er alle avkastningstall for fondet i denne rapporten målt i NOK, knyttet til klasse A, og etter fradrag for gebyrer 2

3 SKAGEN m 2 A avkastning desember 216 (i NOK) Desember Q år Siden start* SKAGEN m2 A 3,5% 3,9% 4,8% 15,2% 12,3% MSCI ACWI Real Estate 3,3% 1,4% 1,2% 18,3% 16,7% Meravkastning,2% 2,5% 3,6% -3,1% -4,4% 3 NB: Alle tall over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). *Startdato 31. oktober 212.

4 Markedsutvikling i desember 216 i NOK(%) RUSSLAND ITALIA POLEN SPANIA TYSKLAND FINLAND FRANKRIKE ØSTERRIKE SVERIGE INDONESIA SØR-AFRIKA NORGE NEDERLAND UK THAILAND BRASIL SKAGEN m2 A MSCI ACWI REAL ESTATE IMI TYRKIA KOREA CANADA USA JAPAN INDIA CHILE MALAYSIA SINGAPORE TAIWAN NEW ZEALAND KINA HONG KONG

5 Markedsutvikling i 216 i NOK(%) BRASIL RUSSLAND THAILAND CANADA TAIWAN NEW ZEALAND SØR-AFRIKA INDONESIA CHILE NORGE ØSTERRIKE USA KOREA SKAGEN m2 A FRANKRIKE NEDERLAND MSCI ACWI REAL ESTATE IMI TYSKLAND JAPAN HONG KONG SVERIGE KINA SINGAPORE POLEN UK SPANIA INDIA MALAYSIA FINLAND TYRKIA

6 Viktigste bidragsytere 216 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Company NOK () Company NOK () D Carnegie & Co Mitsui Fudosan IRSA Big Yellow Group Olav Thon Columbia Property Trust PS Business Parks Melia Hotels Ashford Hospitality Trust Apartment Investment & Man Deutsche Wohnen HCP Nomura Real Estate Vista Land BR Malls Ashford Brandywine Realty Trust Ananda Development SM Prime CapitaLand Value Creation 216 (NOK MM): 57 NB: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 6

7 Beste bidragsytere med kommentar, desember 216 Største bidragsytere Company NOK () Comments D Carnegie & Co 5 8 Ashford Hospitality Trust Global Logistic Properties Inmobiliaria Colonial 2 41 Catena 2 36 Mercialys 2 27 Dic Asset 1 92 SL Green Realty Axiare Patrimonio 1 73 Ashford Hospitality Prime Vil starte bygging etter første byggetillatelser Kom tilbake etter valget av Trump og vinner om inflasjonen stiger Rykter om bud fra kinesisk konsortium, GLP her strategisk gjennomgang Sterke eiendomsmarkeder i Madrid, Barcelona og Paris Kjøpte netto aktiva for SEK 474m, bekreftet vekststrategi Rykter rundt Colonial og håp for oppkjøp Kom tilbake etter valget av Trump og vinner om inflasjonen stiger 7

8 Viktigste bidragsytere med kommentar, desember 216 Største negative bidragsytere Company NOK () Comments SOHO China -685 Phoenix Mills -467 Mitsui Fudosan -433 Grivalia Properties -374 Ascendas India Trust -349 Shangri-La -321 CapitaLand -241 Ashford -193 First Real Estate -28 8

9 Viktigste endringer 4. kvartal 216 Q4 Økte poster Q4 Reduserte poster Beni Stabili Deutsche Wohnen Catena D Carnegie & Co General Growth Properties Ashford Hospitality Prime British Land Big Yellow Group Inmobiliaria Colonial Mercialys (New) Brandywine Realty Trust General Shopping HCP Ashford Hospitality Trust Emlak Nomura Real Estate Global Logistic Properties Mitsui Fudosan Co Oberoi Realty Axiare Patrimonio Ashford Shangri-La Olav Thon (Out) (Out) (Out) 9

10 Største poster i SKAGEN m 2 i desember 216 Holding size Price P/NAV Div. Yield 216e EBITDA 216e/EV D Carnegie 5,6 % % % 3,6% SL Green Realty 5,3 % 17,56 75% 2,6% 6,4% Olav Thon 5,2 % 16 75% 1,3% 6,6% Inmobiliaria Colonial 5,1 % 6,58 9% 3,% 3,1% Catena 5, % 128,5 97% 2,5% 5,2% Mitsui Fudosan 4,8 % % 1,2% 6,1% Deutsche Wohnen 4,6 % 29,84 17% 2,5% 3,7% Global Logistic Properties 4,6 % 2,2 73% 3,2% 3,9% CBL Properties 3,9 % 11,5 6% 9,2% 9,5% Mercialys 3,9 % 19,24 9% 6,% 4,7% Weighted top % 85% 2.8% 4.7% Weighted top % 2.9% 5.5% Benchmark 3.8% actual 1

11 Geografisk fordeling mot indeks desember 216 Percent 54 Fund Index Asia DM Asia EM Europe DM Europe EM Frontier Latin America Middle East North ex. The Markets & Africa America Nordics Oceania The Nordics Cash 11

12 Nyheter på engelsk

13 Key earnings releases and corporate news December 216 D. Carnegie, Sweden (5.6%) Starting to capitalise on building rights Implications for Investment Case: Positive. Our Stockholm-focused residential operator today announced that they will start to develop their first building rights after the building permit was granted. Building rights are booked at SEK 3m but current market value is equivalent to ~SEK 3 bn. Company owns 1k sqm of building rights, and another 3k sqm are in the pipeline. Further yield compression is likely off the table, but the company has very good value creating potential, mainly from refurbishment, co-op conversions and building rights. Only 1% of total assets have been refurbished so far. Catena, Sweden (4.8%) Catena buys properties for SEK 474m Implications for Investment Case: Positive. Catena continues growth strategy and acquired logistic assets for SEK 474m. This is a follow-up on recent acquisitions in Mölnlycke (SEK 2m and Helsingborg SEK 13m). All these assets are strategically located and confirm that the company s growth strategies are catching up to a faster logistic chain driven by fast growing e-commerce. With the acquisitions come capex obligations, but also leasing commitments and running cash flow. DHL (as largest client and seller of assets has an avg. lease term of 13 years). Acquisition (pre capex) Yield >7%. Transaction brings confidence since money from placement in October is now capitalised. General Growth Properties, US (2.2 % ) Declares a special dividend of 26c (1% of share price) Implications for Investment Case: Positive. General Growth declares a special dividend, most likely due to REIT requirement after selling 5% in a JV. The company has to distribute at least 9% of taxable income to be compliant with REIT rules. They distribute 1% of their market cap meaning that they distribute as little as possible to be compliant. This is a very strong company that has raised its dividend from 19c/Q to 22c/Q the last two quarters, and the expected ordinary dividend going forward is 22c/Q or possibly slightly higher. 13

14 The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of December 216 D. Carnegie & Co is the largest listed residential real estate company in Sweden specialising in residential properties. The company owns and manages over 16k units concentrated in the Stockholm region. Strategy is to refurbish and revitalise apartments and areas in the miljon program (residential blocks that were built between in Sweden that became famous for building away the housing shortage in an effective, fast and not very aesthetic way). Current units are expected to be refurbished in 1 years. The company does not clear all buildings, rather refurbishes when each unit is empty avoiding income loss. Total portfolio valuation is SEK 13.6bn. Huge asset revaluation, building rights value and privatisation potential. Apartments are valued in the books at SEK 11 5/sqm. In June 216 Blackstone acquired a majority of shares, a bid for all shares to come. SL Green Realty Corp. is a fully integrated, self-administered and self-managed REIT. The company is focused on owning and operating office buildings in Manhattan. It owns equity or debt in 92 properties totalling 41.6m square feet. In addition to Manhattan, they also have interests in Manhattan s surrounding suburban areas. Its Manhattan properties have an occupancy rate of 95.9% compared to 83.5% (Q1 15) for its properties in suburban areas. Olav Thon owns a portfolio of 65 shopping malls and manages an additional 27 malls for external owners. In addition, the company owns office buildings, restaurants and hotels (2 NOT Thon Hotels) located primarily in the Oslo area. 76% of its income is from malls and the rest from commercial real estate (mainly office and retail). Listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange in Gross (inclusive JV) lettable space: Shopping malls: 1m square metres and commercial estate 263 square metres. Diversified into Sweden in Q3 14 after buying five shopping malls with 122 square metres of space for NOK 3bn. Colonial is a leading Spanish prime property company present in Spain (Barcelona and Madrid) and France (Paris). The presence in France is structured through a 53.1% stake in the French listed company Société Fonciere Lyonnaise. Majority of assets are high quality CBD (75%) offices (94%). Colonial is the only liquid Spanish listed Real Estate company that managed to remain listed and successfully navigate through the turbulent waters of the recent economic crisis. The company rebuilt its capital structure in 214 via a combination of a debt raising and a EUR 1.26bn capital increase. Geographical breakdown by GAV: Paris 48.5%, Madrid 28.1% and Barcelona 23.4%. Catena is a Swedish logistics owner, operator and developer that actively manages portfolio and development projects in Sweden. Company recently acquired Tribona and became leading logistics operator in Sweden. Catena s assets are mainly located in fast growing regions: Stockholm, Gothenburg and Öresund. Portfolio value of approximately SEK 1bn. Strong e-commerce trend driving demand for more and faster logistics, especially city logistics. 14

15 The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of Dec. 216 (cont.) Established in 1941, Mitsui Fudosan has been an active leader in the Japanese real estate industry, successfully developing new business opportunities and establishing a dominant position. The company is an integrated firm involved in office leasing, commercial facilities, condominium development, investment property development and REITS. 8% of MF s assets are located on other continents. Wellintegrated and balanced growth model with development and investment properties diversified among different real estate sub-segments. Management business (car park leasing, property management) provides stable earnings growth over time, and together with other recurring earnings from commercial assets, mitigates the volatility in the development segment. Deutsche Wohnen is one of the leading listed residential companies in Germany with main focus in Berlin. Its operational focus is on managing and developing its residential property portfolio, currently comprises 161k units in total, of which 159k are residential units and 2,2 are commercial properties. Units are situated in core regions like Greater Berlin, Rhine-Main, Rhineland, Dresden, Hanover as well as in medium-sized German cities like Brunswick and Magdeburg. GLP is Asia's largest provider of modern logistics facilities. The company owns, manages and leases over 7 completed properties spread across 77 cities in China, Japan, Brazil and US, forming an efficient network with assets strategically located in key hubs, industrial zones and urban distribution centres. The USD 27bn property portfolio consists of 28m sqm serving more than 8 customers. The Japan portfolio is mostly completed and stabilised, providing strong operating cash flows to fund the group's growing business in China. The company also set up a China fund at the end of 213 to enable capital recycling in the Chinese market in line with the Japanese model. This business model leads to a more effective capital structure, recurring income and capital recycling (listing of J-REIT & CLF fund). CBL, founded in 1978 and listed in 1992, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, leases, manages, and develops shopping centres. The company held interests in 127 building, including 75 malls plus 24 adjacent associated centres, 5 outlet centres, 1 community centres and 13 office buildings. CBL also manage 2 properties for third parties. Founded in 25 by Casino, Mercialys is one of the top real estate companies in France and Europe, specialising in the enhancement, transformation and promotion of shopping centres. Mercialys owns a real estate portfolio of over 5 centres, with more than 8, square metres of retail space throughout France. Mercialys is positioned in the convenient range of the shopping centre industry, as well as within the experience malls or destination malls segment. Mercialys is well established in France and has been very skilled in its active management of its assets. Casino is still the majority owner. 15

16 For mer informasjon, kontakt oss eller ler mer i siste Markedsrapport og om SKAGEN m2 A på våre nettsider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.