SKAGEN m 2 Statusrapport mars 2015

Transkript

1 SKAGEN m 2 Statusrapport mars 2015

2 Hovedtrekk SKAGEN m 2 mars 2015 SKAGEN m 2 var opp 3,6 prosent i mars, mens det globale eiendomsmarkedet var opp 5,9 prosent. Investorene fortsetter å fokusere på kontantstrømmer og utbytter, noe som forsetter å gi økt interesse for den globale eiendomssektoren. Fondets forvaltningskapital er nå oppe i 1,45 milliarder kroner. Vi solgte oss ut av Lexington og Keppel Land. Lexington ble solgt som følge av en svak forretningsmodell og skattemessige forhold. Selskapet har på tross av dette likevel vært en god bidragsyter til fondets avkastning. Keppel Land ble privatisert av selskapets største eier. De beste markedene i mars var Japan, Kina og Filippinene. De svakeste markedene var India, Brasil og Thailand. De to beste bidragsyterne var filippinske Vista Land og argentinske Irsa. Vista Land annonserte gode tall for 2014 med rekordhøye inntekter. De annonserte også et program for tilbakekjøp av aksjer. I tillegg var det god utvikling i det filippinske eiendomsmarkedet i mars og hovedindeksen slo tidligere toppnivåer. Irsa har annonsert at de vil skille ut eiendomsdelen av konglomeratet. De svakeste bidragsyterne var indonesiske Bekasi og amerikanske Ashford. Bekasi annonserte 2014 resultater litt under forventningene som følge av svakere vekst i utenlandske direkteinvesteringer enn forventet, spesielt investeringer i bilindustrien. Ashford er en volatil aksje og det er ikke noen spesielle nyheter som kan forklare fallet. Japanske eiendomsaksjer fortsatte opp i mars. Hittil i år er vår beste aksje i porteføljen Mitsui Fudosan. Tomteprisene for næringseiendom over hele Japan steg for første gang på mange år, noe som ga håp om stigende aktiva priser. Boligtomtprisene er fremdeles fallende. I store byer som Tokyo har tomteprisene steget drevet av fallende avkastningsrate på næringseiendommer og økt etterspørsel etter leilighetskomplekser. Tilbudet av komplekser er i dag på historisk lave nivåer mens husholdningene øker og er forventet å øke med husholdninger per år de neste 5 årene. Videre håper markedet på flere stimulansepakker fra regjeringen og den japanske sentralbanken som vil støtte eiendomsaksjer. I slutten av mars annonserte den kinesiske regjeringen nye lettelser etter tidligere rentekutt. Nedbetalingsgrensene ble senket og loven om skatt på kapitalgevinst ble endret. Med nedgang i volumene på 15 prosent de 2 første månedene av 2015 til tross for de første lettelsene 30. september 2014, samt rentekutt med tilsammen 0,6 prosent siden desember 2014, har regjeringen blitt skremt til å sette i gang flere politiske tiltak for å hjelpe til med å stabilisere eiendomsmarkedet. Disse nyhetene løftet kinesisk eiendom. De 10 største postene utgjør nå 34,1 prosent av porteføljen, som består av 54 poster. Kontantbeholdningen er 4 prosent. 2

3 Avkastning, mars 2015 A Mars 1Q Hittil i år Siden start* SKAGEN m2 A 3,6% 11,8% 11,8% 21,9% MSCI ACWI Real Estate 5,9% 12,3% 12,3% 27,8% Relativ avkastning -2,3% -0,6% -0,6% -6,0% 3 Note: Alle tall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning) * Startdato: 31 oktober 2012

4 Markedsutvikling i mars i NOK (%) Kina (Hong Kong) 10 Japan Kina (lokal) 9 9 Philippinene 8 USA MSCI Eiendomsindeks Frankrike Singapore MSCI ACWI MSCI EM Sør-Afrika Hong Kong SKAGEN M2 Canada UK Indonesia Norge Australia Tyskland Tyrkia Thailand Brasil India

5 Markedsutvikling hittil i år i NOK (%) Philippinene 24 Frankrike Japan India Sør-Afrika Kina (Hong Kong) Kina (lokal) UK MSCI Eiendomsindeks USA SKAGEN M2 Tyskland MSCI ACWI MSCI EM Indonesia Australia Hong Kong Singapore Thailand Norge Canada Tyrkia Brasil

6 Største bidragsytere, mars 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK tusen Selskap NOK tusen Mitsui Fudosan ##### Olav Thon HCP ##### Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Apartment Investment & Man ##### Ticon Industrial General Growth Properties ##### Ashford Columbia Property Trust ##### Ashford Hospitality Trust Brandywine Realty Trust ##### Oberoi Realty SL Green Realty ##### Phoenix Mills Vista Land & Lifescapes ##### BR Malls -982 Global Logistic Properties ##### Ananda Development -840 PS Business Parks ##### CA Immobilien Anlagen -761 Total verdiskapning i mars 2015: 49 millioner kroner Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 6

7 Største bidragsytere, hittil i 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK tusen Selskap NOK tusen Mitsui Fudosan E+06 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Olav Thon E+06 China South City Holdings Columbia Property Trust E+06 Ticon Industrial Connection Melia Hotels E+06 BR Malls Participacoes Mercialys E+06 General Shopping Brasil SM Prime Holdings E+06 IRSA E+06 General Growth Properties E+06 Apartment Investment & Man E+06 SL Green Realty E+06 Total verdiskapning så langt i 2015: 124 millioner kroner Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 7

8 Største bidragsytere, mars 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap NOK tusen Mitsui Fudosan HCP Gode fundamentale forhold for eiendomsmarkedet driver aksjeprisoppgangen, økt etterspørsel etter leilighetskomplekser og salg av boliger. Lav ledighetsrate og økte leienivåer driver avkastningsratene ned. Tomtepriser på nasjonale nivåer for første gang på mange år. Markedet venter på nye stimulansepakker i Transaksjonsusikkerheten er fjernet på den største leietageren, HCR ManoCare, noe som var veldig positivt. Mer informasjon i slutten av rapporten. Apartment Investment & Man Ingen spesifikke selskapsnyheter. General Growth Properties Ingen spesifikke selskapsnyheter. Columbia Property Trust En av få undervurderte amerikanske selskaper, oppgradert av meglere. Brandywine Realty Trust Ingen spesifikke selskapsnyheter. SL Green Realty Ingen spesifikke selskapsnyheter. Vista Land & Lifescapes Selskapet presenterte solide tall for 2014 med netto inntjeningsvekst på 13 prosent på rekordhøye inntekter og bekrefter fortsatt god etterspørsel blant en voksende middelklasse. Vista Land øker også utviklingen av næringseiendom. Selskapet annonserte også et tilbakekjøpsprogram av aksjer. Manila børsen har vært veldig sterk i 1. kvartal Global Logistic Properties Nye gode leieavtaler signert i mars. Undervurdert og misforstått selskap. PS Business Parks Ingen spesifikke selskapsnyheter. Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 8

9 Største bidragsytere, mars 2015 Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK tusen Olav Thon Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Ticon Industrial Ashford Ashford Hospitality Trust Oberoi Realty Phoenix Mills BR Malls -982 Ananda Development -840 CA Immobilien Anlagen -761 Ingen spesifikke selskapsnyheter. Resultater rapportert litt lavere enn forventet av markedet, men lavere salg oppveies av høyere gjennomsnittlige salgspriser på tomter. Mer informasjon i slutten av rapporten. Lavere forventninger på salg av aktiva. Innsider selger. Ingen spesifikke selskapsnyheter. Ingen spesifikke selskapsnyheter. Eiendomsaksjer tok en pust i bakken og hadde svak utvikling etter noen gode måneder. Oberoi hadde gode resultater i siste rapport. Ingen spesifikke selskapsnyheter. Anstendig resultat for 4. kvartal 2014 (mer informasjon i slutten av rapporten). Fortsatt urolig sentiment for brasiliansk økonomi. Ingen spesifikke selskapsnyheter. Sterke 2014 resultater siste måned. Det thailandske eiendomsmarkedet hadde en svak måned. Bud på Immofinanz som har virksomhet i Øst Europa. Bud ble avvist. Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 9

10 Viktigste endringer hittil i 2015 Q1 Shangri-La Asia HCP Ashford Hospitality Trust SOHO China Mitsui Fudosan Global Logistic Properties Olav Thon CBL Properties Apartment Investment Melia Hotels Columbia Property Trust (Ny) Keppel Land (Ut) Lexington Realty Trust (Ut) Unibail-Rodamco Citycon CSI Properties + Økte posisjoner -- Reduserte posisjoner 10

11 Største kjøp og salg i mars 2015 Kjøp Deutsche Wohnen Kjøpte tilbake det vi solgte siste måned på en kraftig intradag korreksjon etter rapport som ikke på linje med de veldig høye forventningene, noe vi mente ikke var rettferdig. Det annonserte oppkjøpet av Conwert er fremdeles ikke avgjort. Vi liker selskapets fokus på Berlin, finansielt og driftseffektiv, forretningsmodell og ledelse. Emlak Korreksjon som følge av geo/makro uro og vi kjøpte mer. Selskapet annonserte gode resultater og flere tilbakekjøp. Soho China Kjøpte på korreksjon, selskapet har ligget etter markedet etter en nylig publisert rapport. Selskapet holder seg til endringsplanen. I slutten av mars annonserte regjeringen nye stimulansetiltak for boligkjøpere som også påvirket Soho. Videre rentekutt er forventet og det vil støtte Soho. Shangri-La Økte posisjonen. Selskapet handles til en betydelig rabatt som følge av svak etterspørsel/tilbuds balanse, fokus på korrupsjon i Kina og etter en aksjeutstedelse i november. Bekasi Industrial Kjøpte på korreksjon; selskapet er undervurdert og har fremdeles et stort potensial når utenlandske direkteinvesteringer øker og når makro og politiske sentiment bedrer seg. Dette til tross for at aksjer var en av de beste bidragsyterne i fjor. Ticon Indistrial Kjøpte på korreksjon basert på svakere guiding og lavere forventet aktiva salg. Salg Keppel Land Solgt ut som følge av privatisering av selskapets største eier. Lexington Solgt ut som følge av forretningsmodell og forventet svak langsiktig driftsutvikling. Mitsui Fudosan Tok noe gevinst. 11

12 Største poster i SKAGEN m2 pr. 31. mars 2015 Postens størrelse Kurs P/NAV siste Div. yield 2015e EBITDA 2015e/EV HCP Inc 4,0% 43,21 133% 5.3% 5.9% General Growth Properties 3,7% 29,92 100% 2.3% 4.9% Brandywine Realty Trust 3,7% 16,15 100% 3,9% 7,1% Global Logistic Properties 3,7% 2,65 106% 2,3% 5.7% Columbia Property Trust 3,6% 26,87 85% 4.5% 6.3% Ashford Hospitality Trust 3,5% 9,69 85% 4,9% 4.9% PS Business Parks 3,2% 83,51 100% 2,4% 6,0% Mitsui Fudosan Co 3,2% 3529,5 111% 0.7% 5.0% Apartment Investment & Man 3,2% 39,84 105% 2.9% 5,3% Olav Thon 3,2% 159,5 100% 1,1% 5,9% Vektet topp % 104% 3.0% 5.9% Vektet topp % 3.1% 6.1% Referanseindeks 3.2% virkelig 12 1

13 Geografisk fordeling versus referanseindeksen (%) 54 Fond Indeks Asia ex Japan EMEA Frontier Markets Japan Kjerne EU Nord Amerika Norden Perifer EU Oceania Sør Amerika Kontanter 13

14 Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper på engelsk

15 Key earnings releases and corporate news March HCP, US (4.0%) Removed uncertainty with largest tenant HCR ManoCare - positive Summary: HCP announced a revised agreement with HCP s largest tenant HCR ManorCare, whose deteriorating coverage has largely dominated investor discussions over the past couple of years. HCP and HCR agreed to amend their Master Lease, with annual rent reduction of USD 87m, or a 16% discount on original rent. But on a net basis, rents decline by only USD 68m, which reflects USD 19m of new rents associated with the transfer of 9 post-acute facilities valued at USD 275m to HCP. Transfer is expected to be completed within the next 12 months. In addition to an initial cash lease yield of 6.9%, rents increase 3% annually. HCP will also receive a second lease receivable of USD 250m, payable upon certain liquidity events of HCR (like an IPO or a sale). The initial lease term was also increased by 5 years to 16 years. Implications for the investment case: Stock has been deeply unpopular with only 2 buys out of 19 analysts, this is about to change. One big reason for this has been the overhang from development and relationship with largest tenant HCR Manocare. The announcement on the amended terms adds clarity on the earnings outlook, which is lower as expected, but more importantly, removes much of the uncertainty. Importantly, while HCP has given up over USD 1.1bn of contractual rents over the next 11 years, HCP receives some value back with USD 275m of assets, a USD 250m lease receivable and 5 year extended maturity on the lease. Another positive is that HCP will have a lower tenant concentration, i.e. not so dependent on HCR. The other overhang that has depressed stock (compared to peers last 12 months) is continuous accretive growth. That issue was partly addressed a month ago with the USD 850m acquisition of Chartwell Retirement. HCP is a quality stock with an average annual return since 1985 of ~16-17%. The company has increased dividend over 30 consecutive years. Bekasi Fajar, Indonesia (1.4%) FY14 overall in line with expectations Summary: BEST announced FY numbers slightly below market expectations. Revenue reported at RP 840bn, lower areal sales were offset by the higher average sales price of USD 190 (+9% YoY). FY profit reached RP 398bn which is 49% lower YoY from record year Lower sales due to muted industrial estate land demand was the main reason for lower profit but higher commission fees also dragged earnings. Nevertheless this was no surprise and likely priced in. Net gearing at 5% down from 7% last quarter. Implications for the investment case: Company has recently raised USD 100m to acquire more land bank, something that is positive considering they have only 660 net saleable areas, which would cover some years ahead but they have to start thinking about their long-term pipeline. BEST was one of our strongest shares last year in local terms, but has been one of our biggest losers so far this year. We have accumulated more during 2015 since we believe the company is among the best positioned for an FDI rebound in Indonesia as the political and macro landscape stabilises. Current low utilisation rates at auto manufacturers are also partly to blame for poor performance, but this will turn once industrial cycle turns. Additional land bank would also trigger an increase in recurring income through value added services for tenants. 15 1

16 Key earnings releases and corporate news March (cont.) BR Malls, Brazil (1.6%) EMLAK, Turkey (1.3%) 16 4Q14 and FY14 in line with expectations but guiding a tougher year to come Summary: FY14 NOI grew 7.5% YoY with margins at 93%. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 8% YoY. Same store sales (SSS) increased by 6.5% over the year and same store rent (SSR) increased by 7.9% which was good news. Occupancy remained at high levels of 97.4%. ND/EQ 46%. Implications for the investment case: Results were decent considering sentiment in Brazil. It was positive that the pretty negative 3Q result was topped by 4Q numbers meaning that it was not the beginning of a bad trend. On the positive side, the 2014 renewal and new contract leasing spreads reached 23.7% (29% in 4Q) and 17.6% respectively. On the negative side, SSS are growing in line with inflation which makes it hard over time to increase SSR without increasing occupancy cost too much for tenants. BR Malls SSR have thus far been stronger than SSS without hurting occupancy costs, though this will become increasingly hard as SSS falls. Another negative was further postponement of a greenfield and four expansions. However, BR Malls has another five expansions and two greenfields post 2015 which is the strongest pipeline among Brazilian mall operators. The company is also selling non-core assets as a part of its recycling strategy (sold stakes in 6 malls 2014) and that helps to lower the high gearing. Management guided that 2015 should be a tougher year for the sector and for the company given the Brazilian economic outlook but operating metrics should be in line with BR Malls currently trades at 2015 P/FFO of 13x, a discount of ~20% to peers or capitalisation rate of ~12% with 550bps spread to real sovereign yields. Interest volatility and rising macro concerns have driven mall stocks towards overly depressed valuations; Brazilian malls are among the cheapest in the world at present despite having one of the highest growth rates and similar dividend yield to global peers. 4Q14 report in line with expectations, with solid balance sheet and robust underlying growth Summary: Emlak reported 4Q14 figures and revenues came in at +10% YoY which was below expectations. EBITDA came in +261% YoY, broadly in line with expectations, implying an EBITDA margin of 49.3% which was much higher than expectations. Margin was driven mainly by improvements in the residential and commercial unit sales. Emlak s average pre-sales unit price reached TRY 573k (vs. 362k in 4Q13) thanks to new premium project launches and higher house prices, whereby prices have increased by on average 25%/16% in Istanbul/Turkey, respectively over the same period. At end-4q14, Emlak s deferred income (company s total share in pre-sales revenues) reached TRY 3.5bn (+16% YoY), which the company expects to come through the P&L typically over 1 to 3 years as construction is completed. Net income was up 31% YoY. NAV stands at TRY3.60/share, pricing its shares at a17% discount. Dividend yield is at 3.2%. In addition. Emlak decided to extend its share buy-back programme for the next three years and allocated TRY1.08bn for buybacks at a maximum price of TRY4.00/share. According to REIC regulation, Emlak can buy up to 10% of its paid capital from the market and so far it has already bought back 111m shares (2.92% of its paid in capital). Implications for the investment case: EMLAK has TRY 2.8bn cash in hand and the management plans to continue expanding its portfolio via new land acquisitions. The main focus will be Istanbul and the new land acquisitions will be in the new city area or central locations in Istanbul, which is positive. On 5 March, EMLAK bought 110 properties for TRY 1.3bn from parent TOKI. Company also announced that they plan to tender for Maltepe land, which is the second most valuable land in Emlak REIT's portfolio after Istinye in 2H15. For FY15, the company guided pre-sales up 25% YoY and unit sales up 20% YoY. The company delivered on FY 14 sales target of 10k units. The growth in deferred income is positive as this implies a robust fundamental growth. Emlak proposed TRY /share cash dividend a yield of 3.22%. 1

17 Key earnings releases and corporate news March (cont.) Bumi Serpong, Indonesia (0.8%) Q4/FY14 report in line with expectations with solid net profit Summary: Bumi Serpong reported Q4 and FY14 numbers and revenue came in flat YoY for FY14 following strong FY13 revenue (on the back of RP1.3tn revenue recognition from land sales to JVs). Better than expected gross profit margin was offset by higher SG&A expenses mainly due to increase in sales, advertising and commissions. BSDE doubled its FY14 financing cost due to acquisitions, including the 25.99% stake in Plaza Indonesia Realty. Excluding non-cash adjustment (securities portfolio revaluation gain) and land sales in 2013, the company booked FY14 organic earnings growth of 19% YoY, unadjusted profit increased 42% YoY. Net gearing was solid at 7% and ROE at 24%. The company also announced that it would issue an additional 875m new shares as part of the program to exercise the non-preemptive issue. The company obtained approval in 2013 to issue a total of 1.75bn new shares with non-preemptive rights that represented a total of 10% of outstanding shares back then (17.5bn shares as of FY13). This exercise will increase current number of outstanding shares from 18.4m to 19.2m or a dilution of approximately 4.2% to existing shareholders. Implications for the investment case: Company guided FY15 marketing sales of RP 7.5tn, +15% YoY. Flagship area Serpong will remain the major contributor, providing 60% of total FY15 marketing sales. The remainder would come from company s existing/new townships (21%) and new mixed used/apartment projects in Jakarta (19%). BSDE will be one of the most resilient if the government implements the additional tax for property buying (income tax and/or luxury tax), as it has the flexibility to offer commercial products (industrial estate, shop houses, land) as well as offer residential properties with a price range below RP 2bn supported by its huge land bank in widely diversified locations. Equity issue feels a bit unnecessary when balance sheet is so strong and debt financing would be preferable, especially in light of declining rates in Indonesia. SKAGEN m 2 will try to increase its stake as we did last time. Even though BSDE has delivered good absolute and relative (Indonesian RE) performance over the last year, we think there is more potential to come, especially over the longer term. BSDE aims to increase commercial property exposure, increasing recurring revenue over time. Also positive is the fact that BSDE is ramping up their exposure to other fast growing cities in Indonesia where growth is even faster than Jakarta. Ashford Hospitality Trust, US (3.6%) 4Q14 in line with expectations, improved RevPar. Summary: Ashford Trust had a messy quarter due to a lot of activity. The most important measure was that RevPar increased 7.5%, which was above expectations, offset by some higher G&A. The company spun off their management company and the numbers are not comparable in a straightforward manner. They also agreed to acquire the remaining stake from their JV partner Prudential, which will improve earnings, but also increase leverage offset by an equity issue. Implications for the investment case: We keep our holding in the company due to an expected prolonged upturn in the hotel sector on the back of low supply coming to market. We also observe that the company is increasing acquisition activity. They prefer to buy expensive hotels with expensive shares and do the opposite in worse times (sell cheap hotels, and buy cheap shares). They have been able to make a lot of shareholder value using this model. However, we are closely monitoring this investment and considering when to reduce our holding due to the cyclicality of the hotel business. 17 1

18 Key earnings releases and corporate news March (cont.) Soho China, China (3.1%) Shimao, China (1.0%) 18 FY14 report below expectations, but rental business starting to pick up Summary: Soho China, our Beijing- and Shanghai-focused commercial developer/operator, announced lower than expected revenue and margins. This came after development revenue dragged down its performance as a result of a change in its business model. It is positive that rental income is growing and came in higher than expected (+52% YoY), even if it is from low levels. Net gearing came up to 19.3% from 16.7% over the year, but that is expected given the change in business model and steady dividend policy. Soho has RMB 12.5bn in cash which is sufficient to fund the RMB 7.9bn capex required to complete the IPs currently under construction. Its funding cost is the lowest in its peer group at 5.7%. Dividend for the year came in at RMB 0.25 per share, which is equivalent to a yield of 5.7%. NAV came in at HK$ 9.60/share (P/NAV of 0.57x). Implications for the investment case: One concern has been leasing activity, so we are pleased to see its leasing business improving. Nonetheless, there is a need to ramp it up and lower vacancies on newly built assets. By the end of 2014, an average 32% occupancy rate was achieved for the four newly completed IPs, while existing IPs achieved an average occupancy rate of 86% compared to 84% one year previously. Two office buildings completed in Sept 2014 have achieved over 60%. Wangjing Soho was reported to be 100% leased out by end-jan Further monetary easing will likely drive yield compression and asset appreciation given the prime location of Soho s assets. Stock price has been a disappointment in the last 6 months but will turn when leasing process improves further or if they acquire projects/land at good yields. This is a long-term case that will benefit from demographic trends in Beijing and Shanghai and Soho remains one of the few listed companies within its segment with defensive characteristics. The company aims to complete its transition to a landlord model in 2018 with 1.8m sqm GFA held for lease. FY14 slightly weaker than expected. Focus on earnings quality, cash flow and risk control Summary: Shimao s 2014 FY14 revenue rose by 35% YoY. Underlying net profit was up 8% YoY,driven by a 35% YoY growth in property sales due to a 20% increase in gross floor area (4.26m m 2 ), and a 13% expansion in booked ASP to RMB 12.5k/psm (+13%). Costs were kept under control SG&A expenses represent 6.7% of revenue, down from 8.6% in However top-line growth and cost savings were offset by a 2.8ppt decline in GPM to 32.5% in 2014 (higher land cost booked) and RMB 175m loss from JCEs/associates. However GPM still among the highest in its class. DPS was up 11%, broadly in line with net profit growth, giving a payout ratio of 31%. Net gearing stayed flat at 58%. Implications for the investment case: More effort is being made towards achieving positive operating cash flow, destocking and quality of new acquisitions. Growth is slowing but margins are higher than peers. Chairman Hui stressed his concerns on risks induced by high growth. The emphasis will be on profitability and healthy financials, rather than scale. Contracted 2015 sales target of RMB 72bn (+ 2.6% YoY) is based on RMB 120bn of saleable resources reflecting the slowdown in construction last year and should be attainable. The focus is also to reduce completed inventories by half during the year through promotions, unit redesigning, and facility enhancements. Other targets include cash collection rate of >80% and >30% margins for newly contracted sales in In the mid-term, Shimao still aims to deliver 10% YoY growth in net profit despite slower contracted sales growth. There might be grounds for concern regarding the sudden focus on hotel investment, which will likely be a drag on overall returns and balance sheet recovery pace. If they follow through with the communicated focus strategy, it has the potential to surprise positively as the government is also loosening monetary policies. But if they let this slide and continue with aggressive growth, we will lose patience. Company has among the healthiest balance sheets among peers. The stock trades at 4.8x FY15E PER, 49% discount to NAV, EV/EBITDA 5.5x with an ROE of 17.5%. 1

19 Key earnings releases and corporate news March (cont.) Deutsche Wohnen, Germany (2.3%) Very strong result in FY2014; strong valuation uplift and decent guidance for FY15 Summary: DW announced FY14 results in line with expectations with FFO growth of 17% YoY. Like-for-like rental growth for the entire letting portfolio was 2.5% for FY14 and vacancy rate was at 2.2% - slightly up on aggregate portfolio but down on core part. NAV/share improved significantly due to a value-uplift of the portfolio to EUR 18.10/share (excl. GW EUR 16.30), i.e. +25% YoY. One third of the value-uplift came from rental increases, two thirds from lower capitalisation and discount rates. According to the company the yield compression is underpinned by 2014 portfolio transactions in Berlin at rental multiples of 15-20x. 85% of the capital value growth comes from the Berlin region where yield have compressed by 70bps to 6.2%. 40bps yield compression on total portfolio, cap rates on the Core+ portfolio down from 5.5% to 5.2% Cost ratio came down from 17.3% to 14.4%. Dividend came in at EUR 0.44/share. LTV down by 6.3ppt to 51%. Implications for the investment case: Solid result again from DW with its operational efficiency proven. With regard to the running takeover offer for Conwert, DW commented in the presentation that the offer price of EUR per Conwert share is fair given the restructuring needs and it can but will not be increased, so this is still an open game. It wouldn t be a disaster if the bid fails even though there is a good match in some of the assets that Conwert holds. If the bid is successful, DW will have to put a lot of energy into disposing non-core residential assets and commercial assets (ECO) of Conwert. The problem is that management of DW has a quite outspoken growth strategy, and if the bid fails there will be no other obvious target in sight of that size. Guidance for FY15 FFO was at least EUR 250 m, LTV target ~51% and for FY16 a cost target of 12%. Guidance seems a bit defensive on FFO level and with DW s superior operational efficiency we feel quite comfortable with the guidance. However, the future is hard to predict especially now with an ongoing bid situation and other M&A activities in the sector. DW s CEO also opened up DW as a target with the statement that they were not opposed to being bought as long as it s good for shareholders. One of the fund s thesis with holding DW has been that capital growth has been underestimated especially in Berlin. Some of this has now been realised through the value uplift way above peers and is symptomatic of DW s exposure to urban areas. This is a high quality company we like, valuation is high and there is a lot of growth in the price but not too high since we expect higher than expected rental growth and capital value increase. German urban area residential prices are still lagging other European countries. 19 1

20 Key earnings releases and corporate news March (cont.) Ca Immofinanz, Austria (2.0%) Bid for Immofinanz, up to 15 % stake. Summary: Ca Immofinanz offered to buy up to 15 % of Immofinanz for USD 2.80 Implications for the investment case: Ca Immofinanz is increasing its presence in Eastern Europe, hopefully at a discount to NAV. A merging of these companies makes sense and it should be possible to get some synergies. However, Immofinanz has been creative in the way it finances the company and some negative news may appear if a total acquisition comes through. British Land, UK (2.6%) DiC Asset, Germany (1.9%) British Land completed an exchange transaction with Tesco. Summary: British Land announces it has completed a GBP 733 million property exchange transaction with Tesco. Under the terms of the transaction, British Land has sold its 50% interest in a joint venture portfolio of 21 stand-alone food stores to Tesco and acquired Tesco's 50% interest in two joint venture portfolios predominately comprising Tesco-anchored shopping centres and retail parks. British Land will make a net cash payment of GBP 96 million to Tesco reflecting the difference in net asset value. Implications for the investment case: Simplification and some consolidation. 4Q results in line with expectations; hopefully better going forward. Summary: NAV increased for the first time since 2007 and the company reduced it debt from 67 to 66%. The company is trading at an FFO yield of 7.7% which seems attractive, but is a result of some exposure to sub-optimal areas and high debt level. The company was bought as a recovery story at a more than 40% discount. Currently, the company is trading at a discount of 30% after a good recovery following the departure of management. Implications for the investment case: The company has further potential. It will get new management and obviously a badly run company may release some bad news with new management in place. The flat NAV development in a strong German economy has not been impressive. However, going forward the strength may come concerning their assets. We intend to keep the company until the share price reaches 90% of NAV. Irsa, Argentina (1.5%) Good results and will create a clean real estate company. Summary: Irsa provided results in line with expectations. Sales in shopping malls increased in line with inflation and high occupancy was maintained. The company was hurt by the weak performance of their Israeli investment, but the core portfolio is developing as expected. They plan to create a new listed pure real estate company which will most likely attract interest from investors interested in pure real estate vehicles. Implications for the investment case: This is an owner of high quality real estate and we want to keep it for the long term. The expected spin off will most likely continue to attract investors. 20 2

21 Key earnings releases and corporate news March (cont.) Hovnanian, US (0.5%) 1Q15 results were poor with increased debt level. Reduced FY15 guidance. Summary: Hovnanian, the US house builder, provided disappointing results with lower margins and higher discounts and is struggling to acquire land at sensible prices. The company continues to struggle and postpone the expected recovery. Gross margin was down to 18% and they also guided 17% in 2Q which was disappointing. The inventory of specialised houses is becoming too high and some discounts were needed to offset and reduce inventory. Implications for the investment case: The company continues to perform badly, partly due to softer markets, but also due to overlyaggressive pricing. However, the company has potential earning power in excess of USD 1 per share, and if that becomes reality, the share price may double. What is most worrying about the company is that they continue to underperform and it may be a longterm loser. Affine, France (1.4%) Melia, Spain (2.5%) 4Q14 results below expectations; share price is at still too big discount to NAV. Summary: Affine, an opportunistic player in real estate, provided slightly disappointing results. In our eyes, they delivered what was expected. The company is operating in both Paris and in suburban areas. They have written down some of their assets significantly, but still trade at 20% discount to NAV at least. The main question is if this was the last year of declining NAV or if there are more to come. They reduced debt costs from 3.4 to 3%, but increased the debt level to 49% due to some acquisitions. The company has been under attack because of their reduced dividend which we support. We prefer that they use capital for buybacks or investments. Implications for the investment case: The company is a turnaround case and may need another round to complete this process. We prefer them to reduce dividend further to use cash flow to improve operations, but they are under pressure from yield hunting investors. We hold on to the position, but will reduce if the share price reaches at least 90% of NAV. 4Q14 in line with expectations, with significant debt reductions. Summary: The company came in slightly below expectations. However, in 4Q they reduced their debt level significantly due to convertible debt that was converted into shares. We bought the share in the autumn following fears in the market that the share price may decline lower than the convertible price, but this has not materialised. Implications for the investment case: The share price has been falling since we bought it. However, the Spanish economy is still in the early stages of a recovery, and we keep it until momentum clearly appears. 21 2

22 The largest companies in SKAGEN m 2 as of March 15 HCP is a fully integrated self-administered real estate investment trust that acquires, manages, and invests in healthcare (largest sector of US economy relative to GDP) real estate located in the US and Mexico. HCP is well diversified across healthcare property types: senior housing (35% of NOI), skilled-nursing facilities (31%), medical office (13%), life science/labs (15%), and hospitals (6%). HCP has USD 22bn in AUM and a well-balanced portfolio of 1163 properties. Company has generated ~16% compound annual returns since IPO 1985, and had 29 years of consecutive dividend growth. General Growth Properties (GGP), founded in 1954, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, leases, manages and develops shopping centres. The company is the second largest mall operator in the world. The company holds interests in 120 malls, 7 office properties and 6 other properties generating an average of USD 564 in tenant sales per square foot (malls). Brandywine Realty Trust is a self-administered, self-managed and fully integrated real estate investment trust. The company is engaged in the ownership, management, leasing, acquisition, and development of primarily suburban office properties. It also owns an interest in and operates a commercial real estate management services company. 209 buildings totalling 24.1m sqf (2.1m m 2 ). 182 office, 19 industrial and 5 mixed use in addition to 4 redevelopment properties. They are also part of 19 unconsolidated JVs. GLP is Asia's largest provider of modern logistics facilities. The company owns, manages and leases over 700 completed properties spread across 77 cities in China, Japan, Brazil and US forming an efficient network with assets strategically located in key hubs, industrial zones and urban distribution centres. The USD 27bn property portfolio comprises 28m sqm serving more than 800 customers. The Japan portfolio is mostly completed and stabilised providing strong operating cash flow to fund the group's growing business in China. The company also set up a China fund at the end of 2013 to enable recycling in the Chinese market in line with their Japanese model. This business model leads to a more effective capital structure, recurring income and capital recycling (listing of J-REIT & CLF fund). Columbia Property Trust, Inc. focuses on the acquisition, development, ownership, leasing, and operation of office properties. Owns 59 office buildings with total area of 16.5m sqf (1.6m m2) valued at USD 5.1bn. The company was listed without any equity issue in Oct 2013 to provide liquidity for shareholders. Bought back shares during 4Q after listing. Core focus is 16 main cities throughout the US. Exposure is split between CBD and suburban areas. Occupancy rate is 91%. Properties are both externally and internally managed. 22 2

23 The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of March 15 (cont.) Ashford Hospitality Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on investing opportunistically in the hospitality industry across all segments and at all levels of the capital structure primarily within the United States. Invests opportunistically in the whole capital structure including lending to other hotel owners. Ashford Hospitality Trust owns 115 hotels (directly and in JV with Prudential). PS Business Parks, Inc. is a self-advised and self-managed real estate investment trust that acquires, develops, and owns 29 m sqf (2.7 m2) of commercial properties, primarily multi-tenant office industrial or "flex" space in 102 business parks in 8 states. The company s main exposure is to California. Properties are segmented as : flex (52%), industrial (30%) and office (18%). Total occupancy rate is 90%. Established in 1941, Mitsui Fudosan has been an active leader in the Japanese real estate industry, successfully developing new business opportunities and establishing a dominant position. The company is involved in office leasing, commercial facilities, condominium development, investment property development and REITS. 8% of MF s assets are located on other continents. Strong balance sheet after capitalisation (first in 23 years) in summer of Good integrated and balanced growth model with development and investment properties diversified among different RE sub segments. Management business (car park leasing, property management) provides stable earnings growth over time, in addition to other recurring earnings from commercial assets, to balance the volatility in the development segment. Apartment Investment & Management is a US REIT focused on multi-family rental buildings, with some 66,000 apartments in top 20 markets. The number of apartments has been dramatically reduced since 2004 from over 160,000 (net owned) in 100 markets to today s number, of which 56 are so called Conventional and 10 Affordable. Sold off a lot apartments in and used USD 1bn on share buybacks. The company bought back 24% of outstanding shares from 2Q06 until Oct. 08, but had to issue equity at a lower price in 09. Current strategy was implemented in 2005 and is to sell 2 apartments to buy 1 with better location and higher quality. Olav Thon owns a portfolio of 65 shopping malls and in addition manages 27 malls for external owners. In addition the company owns office buildings, restaurants and hotels (2; NOT Thon Hotels) located primarily in the Oslo area. 76% of income from malls; 24% from commercial real estate, mainly office/retail. Listed on Oslo Stock Exchange in Gross (inclusive JV) lettable space is as follows: Shopping malls: 1.0 m2 and commercial estate 263 m2. Diversified into Sweden in 3Q14 after buying 5 shopping malls of 122 m2 for NOK3 bn. 23 2

24 Additional information

25 Why invest in listed property and SKAGEN m 2? Q. Why invest in listed property? Listed global real estate securities provide exposure to property but with the benefits of liquidity. Listed global real estate securities offer the ability to invest in property around the world, with the flexibility to gain exposure to opportunities that would otherwise be difficult to access. Listed global real estate securities enhance diversification Q. Why effects SKAGEN in your mportfolio. 2? The fund offers a great opportunity to access global listed real estate and use SKAGEN s unique investment philosophy to find investments within that are unpopular, undervalued and under researched. 25 2

26 Brief information on SKAGEN m² A class Broad mandate: Daily traded mutual equity fund, investing globally in listed real estate securities, including REITs, REOCs (Real Estate Operating Companies) and developers. m 2 Recommended investment horizon: Minimum 5 years. Dividends: No dividend payout; fund proceeds are reinvested at the fund level. Benchmark: MSCI ACWI Real Estate Net Return IMI. Fee model: Fixed annual fee 1.5 %*, no entry or exit fees. Minimum first subscription: EUR 150. Launch date: 31 October *Better/worse performance in terms of unit NAV growth relative to benchmark growth is split 90/10 between unit holders and the management company. Maximum annual fee is 3% and minimum fee is 0.75%. 26 2

27 Ønsker du mer informasjon? Se vår siste markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN m 2 på våre hjemmesider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved tegning og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.