NorClim - aktivitet og resultater Helge Drange (NERSC/GfI)

Transkript

1 NorClim - aktivitet og resultater Helge Drange (NERSC/GfI) Finansiert av NORKLIMA, Norges Forskningsråds klimaforskningsprogram

2 NorClim Climate of Norway and the Arctic in the 21 st Century mill NOK / år 10 partnerinstitusjoner, fordelt på 6 (7) moduler

3 Aktivitet I Myndigheter, industri, forskning, allmennhet For Norge og Arktis, fokus på ~2030 og ~2100: Atmosfære Hav Kryosfære Dynamisk nedskalering Statistisk nedskalering Kontakt med brukergrupper Formidling NorClim, RegClim, IPCC AR4,...

4 Aktivitet II Naturlig vs menneskeskapt klimavariasjon-/endring + prediktabilitet For Norge og nordområdene: Atmosfære Hav Kryosfære Analyse Dynamisk tolkning Paleodata, instrumentelle obs., reanalyse, modellkjøringer

5 IPCC AR5 (feb 2013) Aktivitet III NorESM: Testet og operasjonell i løpet av første halvdel av 2009 Atmosfæreprosesser Havprosesser Kryosfæreprosesser Bio(geo)kjemi Modellforbedring Nasjonalt klimamodellsystem Jordsystemmodell; NorESM IPCC AR4 (feb 2007)

6 Denne presentasjonen Lite om klimavariabilitet- og endring Noen eksempler på prosess-studier og (videre)utvikling av modellverktøy Noen resultater

7 Empirical downscaling Gridcell from HIRHAM 55 x 55 km 2 Torill Engen-Skaugen, met.no

8 Gridcell from HIRHAM 55 x 55 km 2 black dots: 1x1 km 2 Torill Engen-Skaugen, met.no

9 mm/måned jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des Hafslo Lærdal Gridcell from HIRHAM 55 x 55 km 2 black dots: 1x1 km 2 Torill Engen-Skaugen, met.no

10 Temperature, precipitation, snow cover, etc Empirical relationships

11 Dynamic downscaling From 300 km to 50, 25 and 8 km Knut-Helge Midtbø/Jan Erik Haugen, met.no

12 Maksimal time-nedbør (mm/hr), Bergen (foreløpige resultater) Knut-Helge Midtbø/Jan Erik Haugen, met.no

13 GISS-AOM 20C3M Component: ocean Resolution: 4 x 3 Variable: SSH Paul Budgell, Arne Melsom, Bjørn Ådlandsvik

14 Dynamic downscaling ocean Sea Surface Height - March GISS AOM ROMS Obs

15 Temperature crossection; Bear Isl. W; S-O-N Observations GISS ROMS Distance [km] Distance [km] Distance [km]

16 EARTH SYSTEM MODEL DEVELOPMENT Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Operational climate model Strengthening colours denote improvements in models Land surface Land surface Ocean & sea-ice Land surface Ocean & sea-ice Sulphate aerosol Land surface Ocean & sea-ice Sulphate aerosol Non-sulphate aerosol Carbon cycle Land surface Ocean & sea-ice Sulphate aerosol Non-sulphate aerosol Carbon cycle Atmospheric chemistry Module development Strengthening colours denote improvements in models Ocean & sea-ice model Sulphur cycle model Land carbon cycle model Ocean carbon cycle model Atmospheric chemistry Non-sulphate aerosols Carbon cycle model Atmospheric chemistry Hadley Centre, UK

17 NorESM framework and model components Atmospheric chemistry CAM CICE CLM River routing MICOM HAMOCC Components in blue communicate trough a coupling component. Components in red are subroutines of blue components.

18 NorESM Horizontal ocean grid Dipole grid (default CCSM) Tripole grid

19 First results CCSM vs NorESM CCSM NorESM IPCC-version of NorESM will be frozen in March 2009 Verification integrations 2009 Scenario integrations IPCC AR5 report, Feb 2013

20 Anthropogenic forcing of the climate system IPCC AR4

21 OH+DMS Aerosol lifecycle schematic SO2 Gas-phase SO4(ga) Wet-phase emission nucleation condensation coagulation In cloud droplets Q(SO2) Q(SO4) Nucleation Aitken Accumulation Coarse Sulphate SO4(n) SO4(a) SO4(ac) SO4(aq) BC Q(BC)ff BC(n) SO4/BC(a) SO4/BC(ac) SO4/OM/BC(ac) OM OM/BC Q(OM)ff Q(OM)bb Q(BC)bb OM(a) SO4/OM/BC(a) OM/BC(a) SS/SO4/OM/BC(ac) DU/SO4/OM/BC(ac) Seasalt Q(ss) SO4/SS(a) SO4/SS(ac) SO4/SS(c) Mineral dust Q(du) SO4/DU(ac) SO4/DU(c)

22 Indirekte effekt av aerosoler Jón Egill Kristjánsson (UiO) Figur fra NASA

23 Forcing - Response and feedbacks Ex: Equilibrium response to aerosol forcing Direct radiative forcing Indirect radiative forcing Aerosol Forcing 0.03 W m W m C -4.5% W m -2 Equilibrium Response Near surface air Temperature C Precipitation % T. Iversen, A. Kirkevaag

24 Data base with ice crystal optical properties Developed by Michael Kahnert (NILU/SMHI) The computations are based on geometric optics (GO) approximation and Monte Carlo simulations Four different ice crystal shapes Crystal sizes µm (27 different sizes). Wavelengths nm (31 different wavelengths). Data on asymmetry parameter (g), extinction cross section (C ext ), scattering cross section (C sca ), and single scattering albedo (a) for each particle set. Tove Svendby, Cathrine L. Myhre, Jon Egill Kristjansson

25 Data from CALIPSO Ex: Across the Arctic region 27 Nov 2007 Tove Svendby, Cathrine L. Myhre, Jon Egill Kristjansson

26 Backscatter: Cirrus location Optical depth Depolarization ratio: Ice crystal shape

27 HAMOCC 5.1 HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle Model Prognostic slab atmosphere (CO 2, N 2, O 2 ) Air-Sea Gas Exchange (CO 2, N 2,O 2 ) Thickness 90m Deep Ocean (remineralisation, sinking) Sediment model J. Tjiputra, BCCR

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29 Havisutbredelse i Arktis i september: Observasjon og klimamodeller IPCC 2007

30 In situ measurements of albedo S. Gerland, NP Spectral albedo and reflectance (Sensors nm, nm) Different sea ice/snow surfaces (young ice, first-year ice, multiyear ice) Different times of season (pre-/post melt onset) Lead and melt pond contribution

31 Hamburg Arctic Test Basin Setup Spacer tank Tank3: Waves Meteorological.sensors Wave paddle Wave paddle 3.00m 3.00m Beach Beach Tank1: Quiescent zone Tank2: Waves 8.50 m 2.50 m m 3.00 m Sensor legend Turbulence cluster +CTD Irradiance measurements Ice Harp: Brine measurements Infra-red camera Depth: 1 m NaCl water=34.5 psu Ultrasonic sensor: wave data Pressure transducers: wave data CTD: salinity and temperature Thermistor chain: temperature Moveable CTD: salinity, temperature + frazil concentration Sara de la Rosa, UiB

32 Experimental Programme Use of facility for 15 days: Oct & March experiments - frequency range: 0.66 Hz to 1.25 Hz Wave Makers Insight into: Ice-growth Brine Drainage Pancake-ice formation Wave attenuation Optical Properties Sara de la Rosa, UiB

33 Future of the Arctic sea ice (1D ice model by Björk ) ~300 W/m² summer 103 W/m² 400 W/m² 0-150W/m² Steady state values ~15 W/m² Ice flux Fram Strait Compares to 4 W/m² ~2 W/m² L H Smedsrud et al, GRL 2008

34 (I) Arctic sea ice thickness distribution Submarines 50 s red and 90 s blue Yu et al (2004) L H Smedsrud et al, GRL 2008

35 (II) Export of ice out of the Arctic has increased since 2003 L H Smedsrud et al, GRL 2008

36 Model scenarios, September 1960-situation Normal ice export and present global warming ; ~1 m 2007 thickness may recover to ~2 m Adding today's high export thickness is stable With 2*CO2, about % of summer ice lost L H Smedsrud et al, GRL 2008

37 Oppsummering NorClim Variabilitet Å identifisere og undersøke mekanismer for klimavariasjoner p tidsskala fra år til flere tiår (mulighet for prediktabilitet?) Forbedret modellsystem Å forbedre forståelsen og implementeringen av prosesser i klimasystemet som er dårlig beskrevet i dagens klimamodeller Scenariokjøringer Å levere klimascenarioer med fokus på år 2030 og 2100 for Norge og Norges nærområder, samt tallfeste usikkerheter Formidling Å formidle kunnskapsbasert og relevant informasjon om utviklingen av det fysiske klimaet til myndigheter, forskere, industri, NGO og allmennhet Jordsystemmodell Å etablere en nasjonal jordsystemmodell (Earth System Model) ved å samkjøre modellsystemer og analyseverktøyer i Norge Kompetansebygging Å bidra til langsiktig kompetanseheving av klimaforskningen i Norge

38 norclim.no

39 Natural variability versus global warming

40 Natural variability versus global warming

41 60 o W 120 o W JJA cyclone number SRESA1B 20C3M 180 o W 36 o N 48 o N 60 o N 72 o N 84 o N 120 o E 60 o E Increase: end of stormtracks Reduction: southern boundary of the stormtracks INCREASE 0 o REDUCTION

42 CAM-Oslo model run: Impact of new parameterization (July) Changed cloud forcing (ΔCF): CF(New) CF(Original) parameterization Positive ΔCF in shortwave region and negative ΔCF in longwave region Net radiation: -0.9 W/m 2 Lat>60ºN: W/m 2 in SW and -3.3 W/m 2 in LW Tove Svendby, Cathrine L. Myhre, Jon Egill Kristjansson