Manpower Q2 2013 Employment Outlook Survey Norway
Manpower Employment Outlook Outlook Survey Survey Global Norway Q2/13 Contents Norway Employment Outlook 3 Regional Comparisons 4 Sector Comparisons 6 Global Employment Outlook 9 International Comparisons Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) 12 International Comparisons Americas 16 International Comparisons Asia Pacific 18 About ManpowerGroup 20 Om undersøkelsen 20 Ordliste over sektorer 21 2
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Norway Employment Outlook The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the second quarter 2013 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 751 employers in Norway. All survey participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 2013 as compared to the current quarter? Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable quarter-overquarter but decline by 2 percentage points when compared with 2Q 2012. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook also stands at +6%. Employers report no change in the Outlook quarter-over-quarter, but hiring plans are 3 percentage points weaker year-over-year. From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise. Norwegian employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in 2Q 2013. While 8% of employers expect to increase staffing levels, 2% anticipate a decrease and 88% forecast no change, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +6%. 3
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Regional Comparisons Employers in all five regions forecast an increase in payrolls during the upcoming quarter. Greater Oslo employers report the most optimistic hiring plans with a Net Employment Outlook of +18%. Elsewhere, the Outlook for Northern Norway stands at +8% while the South/West Outlook is +7%. Employers in both Mid and Eastern Norway report cautious hiring intentions, with Outlooks of +2% and +1%, respectively. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring plans weaken in three of the five regions, most notably by 10 percentage points in Eastern Norway. Outlooks also decline in the South/ West and Mid Norway, by 4 and 2 percentage points, respectively. Meanwhile, the Greater Oslo Outlook improves by 17 percentage points and a 3 percentage point increase is reported in Northern Norway. Year-over-year, the Mid Norway Outlook declines by 9 percentage points and Outlooks also decrease by 6 and 2 percentage points in Eastern and South/West regions, respectively. However, employers in Greater Oslo report a 4 percentage point Outlook improvement. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast positive hiring activity in four of the five regions during the coming quarter. Greater Oslo employers report the most optimistic hiring intentions. However, hiring prospects weaken in three regions both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Eastern +1* (+1**)% With a Net Employment Outlook for the upcoming quarter of +1%, employers report the weakest hiring prospects since 1Q 2010. The Outlook declines by 10 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 6 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate a quiet labor market in the next three months. However, hiring prospects are moderately weaker both quarterover-quarter and year-over-year. *Seasonally Adjusted Outlook **Net Employment Outlook 4
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Greater Oslo 18 (+14)% Job seekers can expect to benefit from the strongest hiring climate since 1Q 2010 in the forthcoming quarter, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +18%. Hiring prospects improve by a considerable margin of 17 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook is 4 percentage points stronger. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate a steady hiring pace in 2Q 2013. The Outlook is considerably stronger quarter-over-quarter and also increases slightly year-over-year. Mid +2 (-1)% Slow-paced hiring activity is expected in 2Q 2013, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +2%. When compared with the previous quarter, the Outlook declines by 2 percentage points and hiring prospects weaken by 9 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast an uncertain hiring climate in the next three months. The Outlook decreases slightly quarter-over-quarter and is considerably weaker year-over-year. Northern +8 (+8)% Employers report cautiously optimistic hiring intentions for 2Q 2013 with a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. Hiring intentions improve by 3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and are unchanged year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast some payroll gains in the April-June time frame. Hiring prospects are moderately stronger when compared with the previous quarter and the Outlook is unchanged year-over-year. South/West +7 (+6)% A moderate hiring pace is anticipated in 2Q 2013, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +7%. However, the Outlook declines by 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 2 percentage points yearover-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect some hiring opportunities in the coming quarter. However, hiring plans are slightly weaker both quarter-overquarter and year-over-year. 5
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Sector Comparisons Employers expect to increase payrolls in all nine industry sectors during 2Q 2013. The strongest hiring prospects are reported in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector and the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector, with Net Employment Outlooks of +17% and +15%, respectively. Outlooks stand at +9% in the Manufacturing sector and at +8% in both the Transport, Storage & Communication sector and the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector. Public & Social sector employers report the most cautious hiring intentions with an Outlook of +3%. When compared with the previous quarter, employers in three of the nine sectors report a slight Outlook improvement of 2 percentage points the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector, the Manufacturing sector and the Transport, Storage & Communication sector. Elsewhere, hiring intentions are either unchanged or remain relatively stable. Year-over-year, hiring prospects weaken in six of the nine industry sectors, with the most noteworthy declines of 12 and 10 percentage points reported in the Construction sector and the Mining & Quarrying sector, respectively. Employers report a 6 percentage point decrease in the Outlook for the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector and a 5 percentage point decline in the Electricity, Gas & Water sector. Meanwhile, hiring intentions strengthen by 5 percentage points in the Transport, Storage & Communication sector and by 3 percentage points in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast headcount gains in all nine industry sectors during the coming quarter, with the most optimistic hiring plans reported in the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector and the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects improve in five sectors, but weaker hiring intentions are evident in six sectors year-over-year. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing +8 (+11)% Employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans for 2Q 2013 with a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. Hiring intentions improve by 2 percentage points when compared with 1Q 2013 and are unchanged year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate a steady hiring pace in the coming quarter. The Outlook is considerably stronger quarter-over-quarter while hiring plans are unchanged year-over-year. 6
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Construction +7 (+7)% With a Net Employment Outlook of +7%, employers forecast some payroll gains in the upcoming quarter. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter. However, when compared with 2Q 2012, the Outlook declines by a considerable margin of 12 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the coming quarter. The Outlook is moderately stronger quarter-over-quarter but considerably weaker year-over-year. Electricity, Gas & Water +7 (+7)% Job seekers can expect some hiring opportunities in 2Q 2013, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +7%. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook remains relatively stable, but hiring intentions weaken by 5 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans for the upcoming quarter, and the Outlook is unchanged quarter-overquarter. However, hiring prospects weaken moderately year-over-year. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services +17 (+10)% An upbeat hiring pace is forecast for 2Q 2013, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +17%. When compared with the previous quarter, hiring prospects remain relatively stable, and the Outlook is 3 percentage points stronger year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate some workforce gains in the next three months. Hiring plans are slightly weaker quarter-over-quarter but slightly stronger year-over-year. Manufacturing +9 (+5)% Employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the forthcoming quarter, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +9%. The Outlook improves by 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and remains relatively stable year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a fair hiring climate in 2Q 2013. When compared with the previous quarter, the Outlook strengthens by 3 percentage points. Year-over-year, hiring prospects remain relatively stable. 7
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Mining & Quarrying +7 (+6)% Some headcount gains are anticipated in the April- June time frame, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +7%. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but decline by a considerable margin of 10 percentage points yearover-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the coming quarter. The Outlook is moderately stronger quarter-over-quarter but declines considerably year-over-year. Public & Social +3 (+2)% With a Net Employment Outlook of +3%, employers report reserved hiring intentions for 2Q 2013. The Outlook is unchanged quarter-over-quarter but weakens by 2 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast slow-paced hiring activity in the coming quarter. Hiring plans remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter and but weaken slightly when compared with 2Q 2012. Transport, Storage & Communication +8 (+7)% Job seekers can expect to benefit from the most optimistic hiring climate since 4Q 2010, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +8% for the April-June period. Hiring intentions improve by 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 5 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast some hiring opportunities in the coming quarter. While the Outlook is slightly weaker quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions are moderately stronger year-over-year. Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels +15 (+13)% For the second consecutive quarter employers anticipate a steady hiring pace with a Net Employment Outlook for the next three months of +15%. However, when compared with 2Q 2012, hiring intentions weaken by 6 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report favorable hiring plans for 2Q 2013. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but weaken moderately year-over-year. 8
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global Global Employment Outlook ManpowerGroup interviewed over 66,000 hiring managers across 42 countries and territories to measure employer hiring expectations between April and June 2013. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is ManpowerGroup s quarterly index of employer hiring confidence. For the second-quarter research, all participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 2013 as compared to the current quarter? The latest research reveals uncertainty still weighs on employer confidence across the globe. Net Employment Outlooks are mixed and it appears many hiring managers continue to wait for clearer resolution to Europe s sovereign debt crisis as well as signs that the global economy is returning to firmer footing before labor markets are likely to achieve sustainable traction. Employers in more than three-quarters of the labor markets surveyed report positive second-quarter hiring plans. Hiring plans strengthen quarter-over-quarter in 21 countries and territories, but decline by varying degrees in 15. Additionally, employers in 25 countries and territories report weaker forecasts compared to this time last year. Worldwide, hiring expectations are strongest in Brazil, Taiwan, Turkey and India, and weakest in Italy, Spain, Greece and the Netherlands with Outlooks from Italy and Spain matching the weakest employer forecasts ever reported there. The research reveals that the least optimistic second-quarter forecasts prevail across the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region where employers in nine of 24 countries report negative second-quarter Net Employment Outlooks. However, the number of negative forecasts in the April-June time frame is a clear improvement from the prior quarter when negative hiring plans were reported in 13 countries. Employers remain cautiously optimistic in the United Kingdom where job seekers will likely continue benefitting from an encouraging hiring environment through the end of June. The labor market remains resilient in Norway as employers in all sectors add to their payrolls, encouraged by the strength of activity associated with the country s oil industry. Germany s Outlook also remains positive, but employer hiring plans are slightly more modest than they were in both the prior quarter and last year at this time. In the Asia Pacific region, employer hiring intentions are positive but mixed. The hiring pace is expected to remain strong in Taiwan, propelled by robust hiring activity in the Mining & Construction industry sector. And opportunities for job seekers in India are expected to remain solid with particularly bright prospects reported in the Transportation & Utilities sector where the Outlook improves by a considerable margin from the first three months of the year. Prospects for job seekers in mainland China are expected to remain favorable, while Japan s employers anticipate steady employment gains for the fifth consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, employer confidence in Australia has declined steadily for the last two years and the country s Net Employment Outlook now stands at its weakest level since Q3 2009. Employers from all 10 countries in the Americas report positive secondquarter hiring plans. Job prospects are strongest in Brazil and Panama and weakest in Costa Rica and the United States. Mexico s Outlook remains upbeat and matches the strongest jobs forecast reported in the country since Q3 2008. Meanwhile, employers in Canada and the United States continue to expect steady job growth in the next three months and Outlooks in both countries remain relatively stable in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons. * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Survey Respondents by Region Research for the Quarter 2 2013 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying 66,006 human resources directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide. 45% of respondents come from 10 countries in the Americas; 24% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 31% from 24 countries in EMEA. 9
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global International Comparisons EMEA ManpowerGroup interviewed more than 20,000 employers across 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region to gauge anticipated hiring activity in the April-June time frame of 2013. Hiring plans are positive in 14 of 24 countries with Outlooks improving or remaining relatively stable from three months ago in 18 labor markets. However, a year-over-year comparison indicates that broad uncertainty across the region continues to weigh on employer hiring confidence and the second-quarter hiring pace is expected to strengthen or remain relatively stable in only 11 of the countries surveyed. The strongest job prospects in the region are reported in Turkey, Israel and Romania and weakest in Italy, Spain and Greece. Employers in Turkey report the region s most optimistic hiring intentions with nearly four out of 10 employers planning to add to their payrolls in the next three months. The Outlook improves considerably from a relatively disappointing first-quarter forecast with considerable gains reported by employers in all industry sectors and all regions. Expected labor demand in Turkey is strongest in the Construction sector. In the United Kingdom employers continue to report their most optimistic forecasts in the last five years. As in the prior two quarters, opportunities for job seekers are expected to be strongest in the Finance & Business Services sector. The overall Outlook is also boosted by a surge in expectations among employers in the Transport, Storage & Communications sector. However, hiring plans in the Construction sector remain gloomy as employers continue to adjust to additional budget cuts for residential and infrastructure construction projects. Skills shortages in Norway continue to compel many employers to look abroad for the talent they need particularly engineers and support personnel for the oil sector, healthcare workers and teachers. The Outlook in Germany remains positive despite quarterover-quarter and year-over-year declines in most industry sectors and regions. Employers expect the hiring pace to remain steady in the Finance & Business Services sector, and job seekers in both the Construction and the Electricity, Gas & Water sectors can expect some opportunities in the months ahead. And while Greece s Net Employment Outlook remains negative, employers there report their most optimistic forecast since Q2 2010 with Outlooks improving in a year-overyear comparison by considerable margins in most Greek industry sectors, including the country s Restaurants & Hotels sector where employers report their first positive Outlook in more than two years. Across Eastern Europe, Net Employment Outlooks are generally stronger in a quarter-over-quarter comparison. The sole exception is Poland where the Outlook declines for the third consecutive quarter following the least optimistic employer forecasts since Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008. Austria Belgium 12
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global Bulgaria Czech Republic Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland 13
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global Israel Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia 14
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK 15
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global International Comparisons Americas Nearly 30,000 employers from 10 countries in North, Central and South America participated in the research to measure expected hiring activity in the second quarter of 2013. Employers in all countries report positive hiring expectations for the April-June time frame, and Outlooks improve or remain relatively stable in seven of 10 countries quarter-over-quarter. In a year-over-year comparison, job prospects decline or maintain relative stability in eight of 10 countries. Job prospects are strongest in Brazil, Panama and Peru. Opportunities for job seekers are expected to be weakest in Costa Rica and the United States, however hiring in both countries is expected to continue at a stable pace with U.S. job prospects boosted by a surge in demand in the Construction sector and by considerably stronger demand by employers in the Transportation & Public Utilities and the Non-Durable Manufacturing sectors. Brazil s employers have reversed the declines reported in the three prior quarters; the second-quarter hiring pace is expected to be brisk as organizations throughout the country continue preparations for next year s soccer World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games. Hiring expectations in the Construction and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sectors climb sharply quarter-over-quarter, and job seekers can also expect to benefit from a prosperous hiring climate in the Services and the Transportation & Utilities sectors. Argentina s forecast climbs modestly for the second consecutive quarter, despite uncertainties arising from the government s efforts to curb inflation and stabilize currency. In Colombia, Outlooks are mostly weaker year-over-year, but a number of planned infrastructure projects are about to get underway and these projects are supporting optimism in the Services sector, as well as upbeat forecasts in the Construction and Transportation & Utilities sectors. In Mexico, the hiring environment is expected to remain decidedly upbeat, fueled by unprecedented confidence among employers in the Services and Commerce sectors combined with favorable hiring plans in each of the country s seven regions. Hiring plans among Canadian employers remain steady, highlighted by the strongest Outlook in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector since Q2 2007 and continuing steady demand in the Construction sector. However, in response to ongoing talent shortages in healthcare, mining and advanced business services, the government is exploring ways to expedite the entry of foreign workers whose skills are in demand. Argentina Brazil 16
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global Canada Colombia Costa Rica Guatemala Mexico Panama Peru USA 17
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global International Comparisons Asia Pacific ManpowerGroup interviewed over 16,000 employers to measure second-quarter hiring plans across eight countries and territories in the Asia Pacific region. Hiring expectations remain positive throughout the region with the strongest opportunities for job seekers reported by employers in Taiwan and India. For the fourth consecutive quarter, employers in Australia report the region s weakest hiring plans. In a quarter-over-quarter comparison the Outlooks are mixed with job prospects expected to improve in four of the eight countries and territories. However, when compared to this time last year, employers are decidedly more uncertain with Net Employment Outlooks declining or remaining relatively stable in seven of the eight countries and territories surveyed. Hiring plans in Taiwan are slightly weaker than they were in Q1 2013 and last year at this time, but employers here are anticipating a brisk hiring pace in the next three months fueled by demand in the Mining & Construction sector where more than half of the employers surveyed said they planned to add to their payrolls in the second quarter. The research reveals bright prospects also await job seekers in the Services sector. Opportunities for job seekers are expected to improve slightly from the prior quarter in both India and China, but are unchanged in Japan. In India, employer confidence improves slightly for the second consecutive quarter following the lackluster forecasts of Q4 2012. Outlooks improve in virtually every sector and region in a quarter-over-quarter comparison, but remain broadly weaker than last year at this time. Strong hiring plans are reported by employers throughout the country with the strongest opportunities expected to benefit job seekers in the Transportation & Utilities, Services, and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors. Employers in each of China s six surveyed industry sectors and nine regions expect the hiring pace to improve by varying degrees when compared to Q1 2013 but report broadly similar hiring plans to last year at this time. The most active hiring environments are expected in the Services and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors. In Japan, meanwhile, job seekers can expect the busiest labor markets in the Services and the Transportation & Utilities sectors where Outlooks strengthen considerably year-over-year. Meanwhile, the Australian Outlook has been in a steady state of decline for the previous eight quarters and is now weaker than at any point since Q3 2009. The decline is plainly evident in the Mining & Construction sector where opportunities for job seekers are considerably more modest than they have been over the last few years. Australia China 18
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global Hong Kong India Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan 19
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Om ManpowerGroup ManpowerGroup arbeider med selskaper og mennesker over hele verden. Dette gir oss forståelse og kunnskap om dagens og fremtidens arbeidsmarked. ManpowerGroup er verdensledende i å finne riktig bemanningsløsning ut i fra det enkelte individs potensiale og bedriftens ambisjoner. På denne måten skaper vi Innovative Workforce Solutions. ManpowerGroup hjelper små og store bedrifter i alle bransjer under fire varemerker: Experis, Manpower, ManpowerGroup Solutions og Right Management. Vi er lokalisert i mer enn 80 land og landområder over hele verden. Ved global forståelse og lokal kompetanse øker vi våre kunders suksess. Virksomheten i Norge genererer over 35 000 oppdrag årlig. Vi har kontorer i 33 byer og tettsteder og 11 000 medarbeidere knyttet til oss. ManpowerGroup er en samfunnsansvarlig bedrift, vi er opptatt av mangfold og ser alltid etter kvalifiserte kandidater uavhengig av alder, kjønn, funksjonsevne og kulturell bakgrunn. 20 Om undersøkelsen Regioner: Stor-Oslo: Oslo, Akershus Østlandet: Hedmark, Oppland, Telemark, Buskerud, Østfold, Vestfold Sør- og Vestlandet: Agder, Rogaland, Hordaland, Sogn og Fjordane Midt-Norge: Møre og Romsdal, Sør og Nord Trøndelag Nord-Norge: Nordland, Troms, Finnmark Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer blir gjennomført kvartalsvis for å måle arbeidsgivernes planer om å øke eller redusere arbeidsstyrken i løpet av det neste kvartalet. Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsundersøkelse er den mest omfattende, pålitelige og framtidsrettede bemanningsundersøkelse i verden. Undersøkelsen er blitt utført i mer enn 50 år. Forskjellige faktorer underbygger suksessen til Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer: Unik: Undersøkelsen har ingen paralleller i størrelse, omfang, levetid og fokusområde. Ser fremover: Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer er en undersøkelse som ser fremover, idet den spør arbeidsgivere om å forutsi bemanning i det kommende kvartal. Dette i motsetning til andre undersøkelser som fokuserer på retrospektive data og rapporterer hva som hendte tidligere. Fokusert: I 50 år har undersøkelsen vært basert på ett og samme spørsmål. Uavhengig: Undersøkelsen er utført blant utvalgte representanter fra arbeidsgivere i hvert enkelt land. Arbeidsgiverne er valgt uavhengig av om de er kunder av ManpowerGroup. Omfattende: Undersøkelsen er basert på intervjuer med over 66 000 offentlige og private arbeidsgivere i 42 land og landområder for å måle forventet arbeidsmarkedstrend hvert kvartal. Dette utvalget bidrar til at analyser kan utføres i spesielle sektorer og regioner og derved fremskaffe detaljert informasjon. Spørsmålet i undersøkelsen Alle arbeidsgivere som deltar i undersøkelsen globalt blir stilt det samme spørsmålet, Hvilken endring i antall ansatte forventer du i din bedrift for neste kvartal som ender i juni 2013 i forhold til forrige kvartal? Metodikk Undersøkelsen er utført ved en godkjent metodikk i tråd med de beste kvalitetsnormer for denne typen undersøkelser. Undersøkelsesgruppene for de 42 land og landområdene hvor undersøkelsen gjennomføres inkluderer ManpowerGroups Internal Research Team and Infocorp Ltd. Undersøkelsen er strukturert slik at den er representativ for hvert enkelt landsøkonomi. Feilmarginen for alle nasjonale, lokale og globale data er ikke større enn +/- 3.9 %. I Norge er 751 arbeidsgivere spurt. Dette antallet intervjuer gir en feilmargin for den norske del av undersøkelsen på +/- 3.6 %. Netto forventet bemanning I denne rapporten benytter vi utrykket netto forventet bemanning. Dette tallet er beregnet ved å ta prosenten av arbeidsgivere som forventer en økning i antall ansatte og trekke fra prosentandelen av arbeidsgivere som forventer en nedgang i antall ansatte i sin bedrift for neste kvartal. Resultatene sammenlignes både med forrige kvartal, omtalt som kvartalsvis, og med samme kvartal året før, omtalt som på årsbasis. Sesongjusteringer Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Argentina, Australia, Belgia, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Frankrike, Guatemala, Hellas, Hongkong, India, Irland, Italia, Japan, Kina, Mexico, Nederland, New Zealand, Norge, Peru, Polen, Romania, Singapore, Sør-Afrika, Spania, Sverige, Sveits, Storbritannia, Taiwan, Tsjekkia, Tyskland, USA og Østerrike for å gi større innsikt i undersøkelsestallene. Disse justeringene gjør det mulig å vurdere resultatene uten de ansettelsesfluktuasjoner som normalt oppstår på samme tid hvert år slik at vi får et tydeligere bilde av situasjonen over tid. ManpowerGroup ønsker å foreta disse justeringene for de øvrige landene etter hvert som flere historiske data er innsamlet.
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Historikk 1962: Første versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer ble lansert i USA og Canada. 1966: Storbritannia lanserer en undersøkelse tilsvarende den i USA, men kaller den for ManpowerGroups kvartalsvise bemanningsprognose. Denne undersøkelsen benytter den samme fremtidsforskning som den amerikanske undersøkelsen og er den første i sitt slag i Europa. 1976: Andre versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer blir lansert i USA og Canada. Forskningsmetodikken blir oppdatert i henhold til utviklingen av markedsundersøkelser. 2002: ManpowerGroup i Storbritannia benytter en forbedret undersøkelsesmetode i sin kvartalsvise arbeidsmarkedsundersøkelse. ManpowerGroups kontorer i Mexico og Irland lanserer undersøkelsen i sine respektive land. 2003: Tredje versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer (MEOS) blir lansert for å utvide programmet til totalt 18 land: Australia, Østerrike, Belgia, Canada, Frankrike, Tyskland, Hongkong, Irland, Italia, Japan, Mexico, Nederland, Norge, Singapore, Spania, Sverige, Storbritannia og USA. 2004: ManpowerGroup i New Zealand lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. 2005: ManpowerGroup i Taiwan, Kina, India og Sveits lanserer Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. 2006: ManpowerGroup i Costa Rica, Peru og Sør-Afrika lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer i tredje kvartal er innarbeidet i tallene fra Australia, Østerrike, Belgia, Frankrike, Tyskland, Hongkong, Irland, Italia, Japan, Mexico, Nederland, Norge, Singapore, Spania og Sverige. 2007: ManpowerGroup i Argentina lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra New Zealand. 2008: ManpowerGroup i Colombia, Hellas, Tsjekkia, Polen, Romania og Guatemala lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Kina og Taiwan i andre kvartal, og i tredje kvartal i tallene fra Sveits og Taiwan. 2009: ManpowerGroup i Ungarn lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i tredje kvartal og Brasil i fjerde kvartal. 2010: ManpowerGroup i Panama lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i andre kvartal. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Peru og Costa Rica. 2011: Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer lanseres i første kvartal i Manpower i Bulgaria, Slovenia og Tyrkia. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Argentina og Sør-Afrika. Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer lanseres i Israel og Slovakia i fjerde kvartal. 2012: ManpowerGroup i Tsjekkia, Hellas, Guatemala, Polen og Romania innarbeider sesongjusteringer i tallene fra andre kvartal. ManpowerGroup i Finland lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i fjerde kvartal og sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Colombia. Ordliste over sektorer Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry % Fishing Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying Public & Social Transport, Storage & Communication Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels Jordbruk, skogbruk, jakt og fiske Bygg og anlegg Elektrisitet-, gass- og vannforsyning Finans, forsikring, eiendom og konsulenttjenester Industri Olje og gass Offentlig tjenesteyting Transport og logistikk Handel og service 21
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