Interne notater STATISTISK SENTRALBYRÅ POPULATION PROJECTIONS NATIONAL AND REGIONAL FIGURES 89 / august 1989

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1 Interne notater STATISTISK SENTRALBYRÅ 89 / august 1989 POPULATION PROJECTIONS NATIONAL AND REGIONAL FIGURES FRAMSKRIVING AV FOLKEMENGDEN NASJONALE OG REGIONALE TALL by/av Inger Texmon

2 1 FORORD De regionale befolkningsframskrivingene 1987 er hittil blitt publisert gjennom Statistisk Ukehefte nr og fylkesvis gjennom serien Nye Distriktstall nr. 1/ Resultatene er ellers blitt tilbudt sentrale brukere i forskningsinstitusjoner, kommunene og statsforvaltningen i form av tabeller og maskinlesbare medier. Enkelte brukergrupper har imidlertid etterspurt en tabellsamling tilsvarende de tidligere NOS-publikasjonene fra befolkningsframskrivingene. Dette notatet er derfor laget for å kunne tilfredsstille dette behov. Fordi det blant disse brukere også er internasjonale organisasjoner, spesielt FN's befolkningskontor, er de folgende sider tekstet på engelsk. Tabellsamlingen inneholder resultater for framskrivinger av folkemengden etter kjønn og alder, for hele landet, fylker og kommuner. For hele landet er det gitt data for perioden , for fylker og kommuner bare fram til Framskrivingene er foretatt med fire ulike alternativer, men på regionalt nivå blir bare ett av disse presentert.

3 2 PREFACE This collection of tables contains population projections by sex, age and regions. Data for the whole country are given up to the year 2050, while data for counties and municipalities are given up to the year The projections are produced in four alternatives, of which only one is presented on the regional level. The publication is a supplement to other presentations of the projections and has been requested by several users, among others the Population Division of the United Nations.

4 CONTENTS Index of figures Index of tables II , 1 Page 5 Text 1. Introduction ,P.1 2. Survey design..., Assumptions...000poo...o, Projection model,00,... 0' Use of tables and some main results 11 II I, Use of tables 3.2. Some main results Figures 1 I/ 9 Tables woo,o" " S 14

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6 5 INDEX OF FIGURES 1. The combinations of assumptions used in the population projections, Population at the end of the year. Registered and projected (Alternative K887, K187, K387)., 9 3a. Population at the end of the year, by sex and age. Registered 1985 and projected (Alternative KB87 and K387) 10.3b. Population at the end of the year, by sex and age. Projected 2015 and (Alternative KB87 and K387) pp, pp,., ",.., Total fertility rate per woman in Denmark, Finland and Sweden , Norway Fertility alternatives for Norway , 12 Page

7 6 INDEX OF TABLES SUMMARY TABLES A. Vital statistics Page A.1. Vital statistics. Registered , and according to projection alternative KB A.2. Vital statistics. Registered , and according to projection alternative K A.3. Vital statistics. Registered , and according to projection alternative K DETAILED TABLES 1. Population at the end of the year, by sex and age. The whole country Population at the end of the year, by sex and age. The whole country Alternative K Population at the end of the year, by sex and age. The whole country Alternative K Population at the end of the year, by sex and age. The whcile country Alternative K Population at the end of the year, by sex an d age. The whole country Alternative KB Population at the end of the year, by single years of age. The whole country Population at the end of the year, by single years of age. The whole country Alternative K Population at the end of the year, by single years of age. The whole country Alternative K Population at the end of the year, by single years of age. The whole country Alternative K Population at the end of the year, by single years of age. The whole country Alternative KB Population at the end of the year, by sex and age. County Alternative K t Population at the end of the year, by age. Municipality Alternative K o

8 7 1. INTRODUCTION In 1985, the Central Burau of Statistics made population projections for each municipality and the results were published in NOS B 583, Population Projections Regional Figures. Death rates were assumed to be as in , with some slight decrease for the first 15 years of the projection period. For fertility, three sets of assumptions were made. In the first alternative, alternative H (H = high), it was assumed that fertility rates would increase from a total fertility rate of 1.66 in 1984.to a toal fertility rate of 2.00 up to the year In the second alternative, alternative K (K = constant), fertility rates were assumed to remain as in In the third alternative, alternative L (L = low), it was assumed that fertility rates would decrease from the 1984 level to a total fertility rate of 1.40 for the whole country up to the year It was further assumed a number of net immigrants annually in the projection period, except in some alternatives with migration balance for each region. That leads to a net migration of zero for the whole country. 2. SURVEY DESIGN 2.1. Assumptions As in the previous projections, the projection model used includes only demographic variables. For deaths, mortality rates by sex and age are estimated for the period Some slight decrease is assumed for the first 14 years of the projection period. The age- and sex-specific reduction of mortality is in accordance with the reduction for the past period and is estimated using Brass' logit life table model. Only one set of fertility assumptions is made, called K, in which the fertility is assumed to remain as in 1986, with a total fertility rate of Internal migration is assumed to remain" at the same level as observed for (alternative 1) and (alternative 2). According to the 'net immigration level dul-ing the last 15 years, the number of net immigrants per year is assumed to be (alternative 1), but as the level of net immigration has been increasing after 1984, an altertive 3 has been given, assuming the number of net immigrants per year to be In addition Projections have been made, assuming migration balance for each of the 454 municipalities (alternative B). The combinations of assumptions used are shown in figure 1. Figure 1. The combinations of assumptions used in the population projections Net immigration Basis Internal migration Basis Basis K K187 K287 0 KB 87

9 Projection model The initial population is the registered population by sex and age at the end of 1986, extracted from the Central Population Register. The calculation s have been made in two steps. First step includes projections for the socalled projection regions, 97 in all. During the second step the results are broken down to municipalities in accordance with a special model. 3. USE OF TABLES AND SOME MAIN RESULTS 3.1. Use of the tables In this publication, results are given for the 4 alternatives. Data are given for the country as a whole in the tables and , for each county in table 3 (alternative K3 87), and data for the smallest units, municipalities, are given in table 4 (alternative K3 87). The projections must be seen strictly as consequences of the assumptions made. All alternatives should therefore be taken in consideration when using the projections for planning purposes. Compared to previous projections for municipalities, there can be conciderable differences. Changes in the fertility rates influence the results for all municipalities, but in many cases divergences will mainly be due to changes in migration between municipalities. For old ages, the results can be considered as reliable, as the slight decline mortality rates probably will remain rather stable, and as there are few migrants among the elder age groups. For younger ages the results are exposed to more uncertain factors. Especially, the youngest age groups can change rather quickly, if fertility increase or decrease Some main results In 1986 the population growth was , or 0.38 per cent. According to alternative K1 87 the population growth will decrease to 0.27 per cent in the year Thereafter the population will grow slowly for a couple of decades, and then decrease. According to alternative K1 87 the population will grow until the year 2023, to a population size of 4.47 millions. Without net immigration (alternative KB 87) the population will start decreasing as soon as the year 2005, when the population has reached a size of 4.30 millions. If a yearly net immigration of is assumed (alternative K3 87) the population growth will last until the year The number of school-age children will decrease quite rapidly the first 2-3 years, while the number of pre-school children will increase slowly. The number of persons of age years will increase steadily during the first 25 years. The number of pensioners, i.e. the age group 67 years and over, will increase with about until 1995, then decrease to about 2010, but thereafter decrease again. An increasing part of the pensioners will be 85 years and over.

10 9 Figure 2. Population at the end of the year. Registered and projected (Alternative KB 87, Kl 87 and K3 87) Million Million Year

11 10 Figure 3a. Population at the end of the year, by sex and age. Registered 1985 and projected (Alternative KB 87 and K3 87) 1985 Age MALES * $ , $54, m $4 04 Thousand 2000 Age MALES 95* $ $ C387 KB87 FEMALES Thousand

12 1 1 Figure 3b. Population at the end of the year, by sex and age. Projected 2015 and (Alternative KB 87 and K3 87) 2015 Alder MALES 9S K387 KB87 FEMALES S li MALES Age FEMALES Thousand Thousand

13 , 12 Figure 4. Total fertility rate per woman in Denmark, Finland, Sweden Norway Fertility alternatives for Norway o Cy Sri I e e e. P v.,.,.,... ap ap....,... -ri-c r.4... u.. ;,..,d. '' r I I'.... e e, e c ' e o e.. e e o e e o.,. a.. o. e e e e o a.. o o o e e o......,... e e..... o o 0 o e '' ' e e. I o... e c e o I o o o. c, o o e.. o e. - o e o o. o I.... o... o a.. e... o o e a e o e e o e e o 0 e o 0 o o.,...,.. C e e e ' P... o.. o,_.,. o e e o e * '., ' o e ' e o e o e e e a e o c a e e c e e o o o e e e o... o.. c. c o o e e o a e o *. o e o o o e... e.... o..... o.. a.. o. o. o o.. o e. o e.. * o e.. e. o c.., e o o e * e o o 0 1 o., e... o., o o 0 o. o o e... e.... e. 'I * * o e e e o e a e o o o e e o e " e a e * e o o e o e e e e * o o e e o o e e e o e o o o 0 o o a o o e a a e o e e o o o o o e. e.. e. e o e o e e e 0 o. o. o o e o 0 e o e o o o * ''. * e '' o.....* o.' o... o... e... o a e e o * o 0 o 0 e m. e.. e. o o o * e e. 0. I i I, 4..A 1 4 {41:1 I tizi' > i Z,4 # Ç,,,I ti i p.a g , it 0,4 sn i 44 -X I 0 Z Z C I rts I t. 2. Q V I 0,1 I I I I I I I i i i ẹ e JI,, oe i 4: tf e: i i : krt i If i I ) tet f Lo.., 6, e i irl.9 ; i...,..x V. 1 >1. i 1.4 i g g.:. cd ai cp as Ei I I 0. li.--f Li ' 0 11) 0 %,...* 0 dl )% :. Z 1:::3 ti) r.z4 I... i:: i 40, to : /e 1 i I i 10 e i... fi I t P 1 n... _..._ CY or ii. i E I i o i : I i I e :...

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15 14 Table A.1. Vital statistics. Registered and according to projection alternative KB Exess Net Increase Per cent Popu- Year Births Deaths of migra- in increase lation births tion populationl _ Population increase is the difference between population 31 December of two following years.

16 15 Table A.2. Vital statistics. Registered and according to projection alternative Kl Exess Net Increase Per cent Popu- Year Births Deaths of migra- in increase lation births tion populationi

17 16 Table A.3. Vital statistics. Registered and according to projection alternative K Exess Net Increase Per cent Popu- Year Births Deaths of migra- in increase lation births tion populationl '

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19 18 TABELL 1.1. FOLKEMENGDEN VED UTGANGEN Av BRET, ETTER KJONN OG ALDER ALTERNATIV K KJoNN OG ALDER REGISTRERT REGISTERED 9EGGE KJ0NN W I ALT....., IR ,eoe...) imeeecipeeeeee sooeoeco m.o AR OG OVER O ,omoodkeem C AR OG OVER MENN / ;rol l: )81:: 1::::: , Z:58C; I ALT 'O 4 JR epoogroommois ooec000mo swellose eosow000t ,IR OG OVER CI 6 RR oesee000motooe ogbeeivedie..411, , ,444,* IR OG OVER KVINNER ALT O 4 IR oese.osolsomis edbeeo.poommoo ectoomo...d , , ' , RR OG OVER O.6 IR IS IR OG OVER...m.o ,

20 OPULATION AT THE END OF THE YEAR, BY SEX AND AGE ALTERNATIVE SEX AND AGE C ' ' C C o o BOTH SEXES TOTAL - 4 Y EARS AND OVER AND OVER MALES TOTAL ' AND OVER 41) C C AND OVER FEMALES TOTAL C : AND OVER AND OVER

21 2 0 rabell 1.1 FORTS. FOLKEMENGDEN VED UTGANGEN AV aret, ETTER KJØNN OG ALDER ALTERNATIv K187. KJ,DNN OG ALDER EGGE KJONN / ALT IR OOOOOO WO Itessocse OOOOO OOOOOOO OOOOO G - 64 OOOOOO OOOOOO 75., AR OG OVER C AR ,11.04r4b00000e., 'AR OG OVER C MENN I ALT AR OOOOO a G OOOOOO OOO. O OOOOO AR OG OVER AR oe4e...3.4seso I O. OOO mom AR OG OVER KVINNER *ALT OOOOOO AR O., , oseautoeaeo toote oc000geofaoe* ooemeeoce AR OG OVER AR OOOOOO ' ar OG OVER... OOOOO ,.

22 PULATION AT THE END OF THE YEAR, BY SEX AND AGE ALTERNATIVE K SEX AND AGE BOTH SEXES E TOTAL C C , AND OVER ANDOVER TOTAL ' ( AND OVER ' CO AND OVER males FEMALES TOTAL AND OVER AND OVER

23 22 TAaELL.2. FOLKEMENGDEN VED UTGANGEN AV BRIT, ETTER KJØNN OG ALDER. 198o ALTERNATIV K KJØNN OG ALDER REGISTRERT ' 1992 REGISTERED BEGGEKJONN I AL T OO AR OOOOO oposeetosp0000m G OOOOO OOOO OOOOO IR OG OVER AR a04, Deogirseeeetwe AR OG OVER MENN I ALT C RR... OOOOO , seoolsoolat000e m.o a.m AR OG OVER RR oeeeeosoodloo sesoesatee.oa os000so.ilooeo IR OG OVER II KVINNER I ALT RR ce000..."...eee omoceoedgoo ornooces.o AR OG OVER AR 00 OOOOO +Do's , ? i5 66 oweepoosoo i7 AR OG OVER OOOOOO

24 POPULATION AT THE END OF THE YEAR BY SEX AND AGE C. ALTERNATIVE K SEXAND AGE 90TH SEXES T0TAL , C C AND OVER AND OVER TOTAL e C AND OVER C C AND OVER MALES FEMALES TOTAL ; ANDOVER C AND OVER

25 24 TABELL 1.2 FORTS. FOLKEMENGDEN VED UTGANGEN Av IRE'', ETTER KJØNN OG ALDER ALTERNATIV K287. OOOO.....M.M.4,MOWD40400,4M.WW ,.. KJNN OG ALDER ,10 NM." NO OW BEGGE KJØNN I ALT OOOOO _, IR C M otepoosp000m , RR OG OVER R solootterosesodo rwooseem _ ".., AR OG OVER MENN I ALT oec000dlooeocle.44boo , R ft , ' doel ovessooesee RR OG OVER '0-6 IR ' ' RR OG OVER <VINNER ALT o - 4 SR egbee , !O m00000dw000so., ; ; oeoseocho'oloo me ocs )5." 59 oceeeocoocoo ,0 64ep00000doseese ; ,0004o o i5 Itt OGOVER RR AR OG OvER