SMARTE BYER ER SMARTE, MEN ER DE OGSÅ SÅRBARE? HVORDAN VURDERE ROBUSTHET?

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1 SMARTE BYER ER SMARTE, MEN ER DE OGSÅ SÅRBARE? HVORDAN VURDERE ROBUSTHET? Lars Bodsberg og Knut Øien ESRA seminar, Hvordan oppnår vi en helhetlig risikostyring i fremtidens «smarte» samfunn?, Oslo, 1. juni 2017

2 Innhold Hva er en smart by? Nytt trusselbilde Resiliens hvordan håndtere det uventede Hvordan vurdere robusthet/resiliens REWI metoden EU-prosjektet: SmartResilience Andre EU-prosjekt 2

3 Byene leder i dag an i utviklingen mot det fornybare samfunnet og trekker nasjonalstatene etter seg Kommunal- og moderniseringsdepartementet: Meld.St. 27 ( ): Digital agenda for Norge 3

4 "Når noen beskriver noe som smart, bør du alltid oppfatte dette som sårbart." Mikko Hypponen, Forskningsdirektør sikkerhetsselskapet F-Secure "Hver gang vi bringer funksjonalitet og intelligens inn i enhetene våre, gjør vi dem mindre sikre og tilgjengelige for nye former for risiko". Ifølge DN Magasinet, 20. mai 2017: En av verdens mest respekterte sikkerhetseksperter, kjent for sine teknologiske samtidsdiagnoser 4

5 Hva er en gris? 5 Gareth Morgan

6 Hva er en smart by? "The answer is, there is no universally accepted definition of a smart city. It means different things to different people. The conceptualisation of Smart City, therefore, varies from city to city and country to country, depending on the level of development, willingness to change and reform, resources and aspirations of the city residents." 6

7 «En smart by bruker digital teknologi til å gjøre byene til bedre steder å leve, bo og arbeide i. Smartbyinitiativer har som mål å forbedre offentlige tjenester og innbyggernes livskvalitet, utnytte felles ressurser optimalt, øke byenes produktivitet, samt å redusere klima- og miljøproblemer i byene.» 7 Kommunal- og moderniseringsdepartementet: Meld.St. 27 ( ): Digital agenda for Norge

8 Kritisk infrastruktur Klaver et al., 2016, based on European Commission, Green Paper on a European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection, COM(2005) 567 Final, Brussels November 2015

9 9 Living in a networked world, Acatech STUDY, March 2015

10 Tingenes internett Fysiske gjenstander koblet til internett som samler inn data, bearbeider eller overvåker noe og kan kommunisere over nett Nicolai Hjermind Hjelmager 10

11 Nye trusler Du kjøper en IoT kaffemaskin og den har sikkerhetshull som lekker passordet til det trådløse nettverket "Prisen er viktigst. Du begynner ikke å stille spørsmål som: Har den en brannmur? Har den systemer for å oppdage inntrengingsforsøk?" "Kjensgjerning! Misliker å oppdatere enheter som fungerer." 11 Mikko Hypponen, Forskningsdirektør sikkerhetsselskapet F-Secure

12 The attack started on Friday, 12 May 2017, and within a day was reported to have infected more than 230,000 computers in over 150 countries.parts of Britain's National Health Service (NHS), Spain's Telefónica, FedEx and Deutsche Bahn were hit, along with many other countries and companies worldwide Wikipedia Et tilsvarende scenario med konvensjonelle våpen ville vært om USAs forsvar var blitt frastjålet noen av sine Tomahawk-raketter Brad Smith, Microsofts toppsjef 12

13 En serie vulkanutbrudd på Island i 2010 lammet flytrafikken i Europa

14 Resiliens

15 Robust Resilient

16 Combining Compliance and Resilience 16 T.O. Grøtan (2010)

17 Hvorfor skjer det ulykker? Vi etablerer og vedlikeholder barrierer, planlagte tiltak for å hindre bestemte hendelsesforløp i å utvikle seg til ulykker 17

18 Bow-tie ulykkes- og barrieremodell = Barrieresystem som skal utføre en Barrierefunksjon Årsaksforhold Hendelsesforløp Konsekvensutvikling Gasslekkasje Påvirkende forhold Påvirkende forhold 18

19 Sikker drift Barrierestyring Beredskap 19 Barrierenotat 2017, Petroleumstilsynet

20 Hvorfor skjer det ikke flere ulykker? Vi etablerer og vedlikeholder barrierer, planlagte tiltak for å hindre bestemte hendelsesforløp i å utvikle seg til ulykker Vi har evne til å improvisere når det oppstår en situasjon ingen har forutsett vi finner en løsning og implementerer den mer eller mindre umiddelbart 20

21 Robuste organisasjoner Tradisjonell ulykkesteori er vinklet mot de «sykdomsskapende faktorene», dvs. forhold som gjør at en organisasjon er utsatt for ulykker. Utvikling av robuste organisasjoner innebærer at vi må studere og kultivere de «helseskapende» faktorene 21

22 Eksempel «helseskapende» faktorer Organisasjonen totalt sett har en bred risikoforståelse. Ansatte kjenner de tekniske systemene til bunns fra de abstrakte fysiske prinsippene og ned til lunene og nykkene til hver enkelt duppeditt. Ansatte forstår operasjonene, ikke minst hvordan jobben de selv er ansvarlig for, virker inn på andres arbeidsoppgaver. Ansatte kjenner arbeidsprosedyrene så godt at de forstår hva som er konsekvensene av å avvike fra prosedyren. Ansatte har nok innsikt til å takle uforutsette situasjoner og til å kunne improvisere sikkert og effektivt i krisesituasjoner. Ikke nok at kunnskapen sitter i hodene på enkeltpersoner. Organisasjonen må evne å dele kunnskap på tvers av faggrenser og organisatoriske grenser. 22

23 Resiliens en alternativ tilnærming Tradisjonell tilnærming Feil og svikt ses på som unormalt Ulykker kan forklares gjennom enkle årsakskjeder Resiliens tilnærming Feil ses på som en normal variasjon i ulike måter å gjennomføre en arbeidsoppgave på Ulykker kan forklares gjennom uforutsette samspilleffekter Barrierer mot kjente, planlagte hendelsesforløp Fokus på hva som kan gå galt risikoanalyser Forberede organisasjonen til å takle uforutsette situasjoner Fokus på hva som skaper sikkerhet 23

24 24 The Resilience based Early Warning Indicators (REWI) method A method for establishing safety indicators based on resilience thinking The concept of resilience is made operational through a set of Contributing Success Factors (CSU)

25 Contributing Success Factors Resilience attributes Make sure that risk awareness is maintained (avoid underestimation of risk) CSF 1: Risk Awareness Be able to provide necessary capasity to respond, given a deviation or incident CSF 2: Response Capacity Be able to support decisions (remedy of goal-conflicts) in order to maintain critical functions (given a deviation or incident) CSF 3: Support Understand anticipate and monitor Respond completely and timely Give support and ensure support Risk understanding Anticipation Attention Response Robustness Resourcefulness/ rapidity Decision support Redundancy (incl. improvisation) (of response) (for support) How do we achieve knowledge and experience about risk/hazards? What can we expect? What should we look for? What must we do? How can we ensure completion of the response (without suffering damage)? How can we ensure timely and sufficient response? How do we support the trade-off between safety and production? How do we compensate for degradation to uphold/ maintain critical functions? 25

26 The Illusions of Love The way we see things depends on our frame of mind. Adult viewers see two nude lovers embracing. But when young children look at this image, they see only dolphins. 26

27 Contributing Success Factors Resilience attributes Make sure that risk awareness is maintained (avoid underestimation of risk) CSF 1: Risk Awareness Be able to provide necessary capasity to respond, given a deviation or incident CSF 2: Response Capacity Be able to support decisions (remedy of goal-conflicts) in order to maintain critical functions (given a deviation or incident) CSF 3: Support Understand anticipate and monitor Respond completely and timely Give support and ensure support Risk understanding Anticipation Attention Response Robustness Resourcefulness/ rapidity Decision support Redundancy (incl. improvisation) (of response) (for support) How do we achieve knowledge and experience about risk/hazards? What can we expect? What should we look for? What must we do? How can we ensure completion of the response (without suffering damage)? How can we ensure timely and sufficient response? How do we support the trade-off between safety and production? How do we compensate for degradation to uphold/ maintain critical functions? 27

28 General Issues - overview Resilience refers to the capability of recognizing, adapting to, and coping with the unexpected (Woods, 2006). Resilience attributes Contributing Success Factor General issue Most important general issue Make sure that risk awareness is maintained (avoid underestimation of risk) CSF 1: Risk Awareness Be able to provide necessary capasity to respond, given a deviation or incident CSF 2: Response Capacity Be able to support decisions (remedy of goal-conflicts) in order to maintain critical functions (given a deviation or incident) CSF 3: Support Understand anticipate and monitor Respond completely and timely Give support and ensure support How do we achieve knowledge and experience about risk/hazards? What can we expect? What should we look for? What must we do? How can we ensure completion of the response (without suffering damage)? How can we ensure timely and sufficient response? How do we support the trade-off between safety and production? How do we compensate for degradation to uphold/maintain critical functions? Risk understanding Robustness Resourcefulness/rapidity (for 1.1 Anticipation 1.2 Attention 1.3 Response Decision support 3.1 Redundancy 3.2 (incl. improvisation) (of response) support) System knowledge Risk/hazard identification (Hazid, ) Process disturbances; control and safety system actuations Training (simulators, table-top, preparedness, ) Robustness of responsible function Adequate resource allocation and staffing (incl. buffer capacity) Adequate decision support staffing (availability & knowl./ experience) Redundancy of decision support functions Information about risk through e.g. courses & doc. (Hazop, QRA,...) Learn from own experiences & accidents Bypass of control and safety functions Adaptability of training (timely revisions of training material) Organizational robustness (backup functions) Adequate ICT systems (timely updating of information) Adequate ICT decision support systems Redundancy in information processing Reporting of incidents, near-misses and accidents Learn from other s experiences & accidents Activity level / simultaneous operations Handling of exceptions (beyond day to day operations) Redundancy in skills; multiple skills Adequate external decision support Information about the quality of barriers (technical safety) Trends in reported events and quality of barriers Flexibility of organizational structure Communication between actors (interface control) Criteria for safe operation well defined and understood Information about the quality of barrier support functions (operational safety) Early warnings/weak signals (e.g. from whistle blowers) Ability to make (correct) decisions Discussion of HSE issues/status in regular meetings Changes; technical, organizational, external (weather, ) Safety performance matters requested by senior management Communicating risk/ resilience at all levels of the organization Focus on safety (safety versus other issues) How well are we doing? What would tell me that we are doing well (or have problems) with this issue?

29 29 General Issues - examples No. CSF level 2 General issue 1.1 Risk understanding System knowledge Information about risk through e.g. courses & documents Reporting of incidents, near-misses and accidents Information about the quality of barriers (technical safety) Information about the quality of barrier support functions (oper. safety) Discussion of HSE issues/status in regular meetings Safety performance matters requested by senior management Communicating risk/resilience at all levels of the organization 1.2 Anticipation Risk/hazard identification Learn from own experiences & accidents Learn from other s experiences & accidents 1.3 Attention Process disturbances; control and safety system actuations Bypass of control and safety functions Activity level/simultaneous operations Trends in reported events and quality of barriers Early warnings/weak signals (e.g. from whistle blowers) Changes; technical, organizational, external (weather, ) Focus on safety (safety versus other issues)

30 Call: Call name: H2020-DRS-2015, DRS Disaster-resilience: safeguarding and securing society, including adapting to climate change Topic: Critical Infrastructure Protection topic 3: Critical Infrastructure resilience indicator analysis and development of methods for assessing resilience Budget: 4.9 mill EUR Duration: 3 years (May 2016 April 2019) Coordinator: A. Jovanovic, EU-VRi * No. of partners: 20 * EU-VRi European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management

31 Consortium

32 What is "Smart" related to Critical Infrastructures? As a result of advances in information technology and the necessity of improved efficiency, however, these infrastructures have become increasingly automated and interlinked. [PPD-63] Increased efficiency & vulnerability Physically & logically separate systems ICT ICT as enabler Automation Remote operation; increased internal efficiency Smartness User interface with operation; increased external efficiency (adaptive/intellig ent) Smart features enabling user interaction

33 Resilience "Resilience" Including "rain from a blue sky" "Umbrella" term Risk assessment Emergency preparedness Business continuity Functionality Understand risks Anticipate/ prepare Absorb/ withstand Resilience curve Respond/ recover Adapt/ learn Time / Phase Cover all the various aspects (ISSUES) and the various stages (PHASES) of crisis management (RESILIENCE CYCLE) K. Øien (2017)

34 System Performance How extreme are the extreme events? Will smart critical structures be able to "survive"? Threat #1 Outcome: better than before 100% Outcome: as before Outcome: not fully recovered threshold Outcome: system completely down 1 Week 4 Weeks If they survive, do we include thresholds/acceptance criteria/? Acatech, Recil-Tech, 2016

35 ISSUE: Expecting the unexpected (look into the horizon) - IND: Amount of resources dedicated for this (e.g. Risk Monitors) What are Resilience Indicators? Functionality Risk assessment "Resilience" Including "rain from a blue sky" Emergency preparedness Business continuity Resilience indicators are HOW we measure the aspects/issues (WHAT) that are important for each phase of the resilience cycle Including existing indicators from, e.g. - Risk assessment - Emergency preparedness - Business continuity Understand risks Anticipate/ prepare Absorb/ withstand Resilience curve Respond/ recover Adapt/ learn Time / Phase ISSUE: Organizational robustness (back-up functions) - IND1: % of time with back-up - IND2: Degree of equal training for back-up functions

36 All Financial Energy Supply Health Care Transportation Industrial Production Water Supply ICT Other SCIs All Understand risks Anticipate/prepare Absorb/withstand Respond/recover Adapt/learn Example Issue and Indicators Critical Infrastructure Phase ID Type Name of Issue/ Indicator Description Issue Indicator Training (simulators, table-top, preparedness, ) Average no. of exercises completed by operating personnel each month Training on how to deal with potential scenarios is essential in order to know what to do, not only with respect to identical or similar scenarios as trained on, but also with respect to response to other (unexpected) scenarios. This includes the use of simulators, table-top exercises, emergency preparedness drills, etc. x x - x x Indicator Indicator No. of hours simulator training in total for operating personnel each month No. of emergency preparedness exercises last three months - x x - x x

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40 40 Kontakt Lars Bodsberg Knut Øien

41 Teknologi for et bedre samfunn