Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment for RiskMAP Projects. August 5, 2014

Transkript

1 Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment for RiskMAP Projects August 5, 2014

2 Agenda RiskMAP Product Overview Multi-Hazards Assessment User Defined Facilities Flood methodology Earthquake methodology Vulnerability assessment Overview of New Risk Report Format Mitigation Action 2

3 Risk MAP 3

4 Risk Datasets and Products Risk Datasets Risk Assessments Depth and Analysis Grids Enhanced Flood Risk Datasets LiDAR Areas of Mitigation Interest (AOMI) HAZUS Data Others (erosion, environmental, etc.) Risk Products Risk Database Risk Report Risk Map Risk Datasets Risk Database Risk Report Risk Map 4

5 Risk Report 5

6 Multi-Hazard Edited Risk Report to incorporate multi-hazards Hazus level 2 analysis only Hazus runs for flood and earthquake scenarios Vulnerability assessments for tsunami, landslide, and wildfire All risk assessment were countywide, rather than watershed based 6

7 User Defined Facilities Database All Hazus analysis in Region X will include updated parcel/assessors data through a UDF or GBS update Local data is collected at discovery and throughout the RiskMAP process UDF/GBS updates will be completed by CTP s, STARR, or the Region Risk Analysts and the State compile critical data assumptions including first floor elevation, foundation type, and design level UDF/GBS updates were completed for each County in the project area 7

8 Flood Methodology Depth grids generated from the flood study are incorporated in the Hazus analysis Only depth grids from the study for detailed and approximate areas are included in the assessment, no AAL data is used FEMA worked with each community s building official or FPA to determine first floor height and foundation type Analysis focused on Hazus losses due to flooding, but also how many buildings were in the AE and VE zones Residential Building Commercial Building Other Building Total Total Building Inventory with the Grays Harbor County Building Exposure in the 0.1% Annual Chance Floodplain $3,050,273,051 $228, $482,401,998 $99,003,000 $1,231,271,435 $62,281,000 $4,763,946,484 $389,861,000 Percent of Total Building Exposure Number of Buildings in VE Zone Number of Buildings in the AE Zone 7.5% % % %

9 Flood Example Address Building Value Building Loss Loss Ratio 2802 RIVER RD E ST AV E 3707 GAY RD E TH AVCT E $7,100 $5,500 $174,800 $132,000 $15,000 $10,000 $10,300 $6,800 78% 75% 68% 66% 9

10 Earthquake Methodology Used various earthquake ShakeMaps in the assessment based on impact to the community Probabilistic scenario is also completed FEMA worked with each community s building official to determine first design level and foundation type Design levels were also analyzed for each city Community Number of Pre-Code Number of Moderate Total Code Grays Harbor County Total Westport Ocean Shores Aberdeen Hoquiam Cosmopolis Elma McCleary Montesano Oakville Quinault Nation Unincorporated County

11 Earthquake Example Fire Stations Name Total Value Model Losses v. Scenario Earthquake M8.3 Megathrust M8.8 Megathrust Bells Flats $1,468,500 $12,014 $94,537 Kodiak City $8,920,750 $14,715 $2,736,933 USCG Bases Bayside, Service District 1 $10,510,51 2 $43,712 $3,298,979 $5,958,250 $9,949 $758,986 11

12 Vulnerability Assessments Vulnerability assessments are completed for each community for the following hazards depending on impact: tsunami, landslide, wildfire, and volcano UDF data is used to determine vulnerability to the built environment Residential Building Commercial Building Other Building Total Building Inventory with the Grays Harbor County Building Exposure in Tsunami inundation zone Percent of Total Building Exposure $ 3,050,369, $ 1,228,527, % $ 482,401, $ 277,253, % $ 1,232,803, $ 381,674, % Occupancy Building Value (in dollars) Total Number of Buildings in Landslide Zone Residential $37,518, Commercial $1,924, Other $4,296, Total $43,738, Total $ 4,765,575, $ 1,887,455, % 12

13 Multi-Hazard Risk Report Flood Dams of Concern Earthquake Tsunami Landslide Wildfire Hazard Overview Risk Assessment Areas of Mitigation Interest (AOMI) & Mitigation Strategies 13

14 Flood Hazard Overview Example BFE+ Grid 1% Annual Depth Grid 14

15 Flood Assessment Overview 1% (100-yr) Total Building Inventory within SFHA 10% (10-yr) 2% (50-yr) Dollar Losses Loss Ratio 0.2% (500-yr) Residential Building Commercial Building Other Building Total Estimated Value Percent of Total Dollar Losses Loss Ratio Dollar Losses Loss Ratio $475,969,000 81% $36,980,000 8% $49,310,000 10% $61,133,000 10% $5,470,000 9% $7,300,000 12% $53,418,000 9% $7,610,000 14% $10,160,000 19% $590,520, % $50,060,000 31% $66,770,000 41% $15,000,000 23% $10,000,000 18% $12,000,000 21% $37,000,000 42% Dollar Losses Loss Ratio $57,820,000 12% $8,990,000 15% $12,330,000 23% $79,200,000 50% Total Building Inventory with the <County/Watershed> Building Exposure in the 0.1% Annual Chance Floodplain Residential Building $475,969,000 $36,980,000 Percent of Total Building Exposure X% Building Exposure in the 0.2% Annual Chance Floodplain Percent of Total Building Exposure Commercial Building $61,133,000 $5,470,000 Other Building $53,418,000 $7,610,000 Total $590,520,000 $50,060,000 15

16 Wildfire Hazard Overview Fire Regime Condition Classes Recent Burn Perimeter Sources: WUI Areas, State HMP, Forestry, Bureau of Lands, Recent Fire event perimeters, etc. 16

17 Wildfire Assessment Total Building Value $XX,XXX,XXX Total Exposure of Buildings Building Value Exposure # of Buildings $475,969, Exposure Ratio 20% 17

18 Areas of Mitigation Interest County #1 Jurisdiction #1 Jurisdiction #2 Jurisdiction #3 County #2 Jurisdiction #1 Jurisdiction #2 Jurisdiction #3 Maps of Mitigation Opportunities Highlight Areas of public facilities impacted by hazards Highlight areas of subdivisions/mobile homes which are impacted 18

19 Mitigation Interest Problem Statement Recommended Mitigation Strategy Map ID# Wildfire Wildfire evacuation routes are of concern within the county Coordinate with Bureau of Land Management and County Transportation Department to identify safety zones and evacuation routes. Develop a signage plan for designated evacuation routes Fire Earthqua ke Moderate to high fire risks exist in open field areas and north of HWY 35 and south of Spokane River. Area susceptible to higher levels of shaking Conduct outreach and education for home owners on fire prevention and defensible space. Develop plan to retrofit unreinforced masonry buildings. Require new buildings to adhere to a higher standard for building codes 12 Flood Landslide Localized flooding due to undersized culvert New development proposed for high slide region County public works is extending storm water drainage system in this area, culvert replacement can be incorporated into this Scope of Work. Confirm that this area is not designated as a Critical Area per Comprehensive Plan Require significant set-back from slope edge for all structures Require strict drainage and storm water plans prior to issuing of permits Flood Multiple Flood Claims Require homes to be built to a higher base flood elevation here Conduct outreach to residents on flood risk and flood insurance Provide incentives for residents to elevate and/or flood proof their homes 15 19

20 Mitigation Interest Problem Statement Recommended Mitigation Strategy Map ID# Wildfire Wildfire evacuation routes are of concern within the county Coordinate with Bureau of Land Management and County Transportation Department to identify safety zones and evacuation routes. Develop a signage plan for designated evacuation routes Multi- Hazard AOMI Fire Earthqua ke Moderate to high fire risks exist in open field areas and north of HWY 35 and south of Spokane River. Area susceptible to higher levels of shaking Conduct outreach and education for home owners on fire prevention and defensible space. Develop plan to retrofit unreinforced masonry buildings. Require new buildings to adhere to a higher standard for building codes 12 Flood Landslide Localized flooding due to undersized culvert New development proposed for high slide region County public works is extending storm water drainage system in this area, culvert replacement can be incorporated into this Scope of Work. Confirm that this area is not designated as a Critical Area per Comprehensive Plan Require significant set-back from slope edge for all structures Require strict drainage and storm water plans prior to issuing of permits Flood Multiple Flood Claims Require homes to be built to a higher base flood elevation here Conduct outreach to residents on flood risk and flood insurance Provide incentives for residents to elevate and/or flood proof their homes 15 20

21 Mitigation Interest Problem Statement Recommended Mitigation Strategy Map ID# Wildfire Flood Problem Statement: Localized flooding due to undersized culvert Wildfire evacuation routes are of concern within the county Coordinate with Bureau of Land Management and County Transportation Department to identify safety zones and evacuation routes. Develop a signage plan for designated evacuation routes Fire Earthqua ke Moderate to high fire risks exist in open field areas and north of HWY 35 and south of Spokane River. Area susceptible to higher levels of shaking Conduct outreach and education for home owners on fire prevention and defensible space. Develop plan to retrofit unreinforced masonry buildings. Require new buildings to adhere to a higher standard for building codes 12 Flood Landslide Localized flooding due to undersized culvert New development proposed for high slide region County public works is extending storm water drainage system in this area, culvert replacement can be incorporated into this Scope of Work. Confirm that this area is not designated as a Critical Area per Comprehensive Plan Require significant set-back from slope edge for all structures Require strict drainage and storm water plans prior to issuing of permits Flood Multiple Flood Claims Require homes to be built to a higher base flood elevation here Conduct outreach to residents on flood risk and flood insurance Provide incentives for residents to elevate and/or flood proof their homes 15 21

22 Mitigation Interest Problem Statement Recommended Mitigation Strategy Map ID# Wildfire Flood Problem Statement: Localized flooding due to undersized culvert Wildfire evacuation routes are of concern within the county Coordinate with Bureau of Land Management and County Transportation Department to identify safety zones and evacuation routes. Develop a signage plan for designated evacuation routes Fire Earthqua ke Moderate to high fire risks exist in open field areas and north of HWY 35 and south of Spokane River. Area susceptible to higher levels of shaking Conduct outreach and education for home owners on fire prevention and defensible space. Develop plan to retrofit unreinforced masonry buildings. Require new buildings to adhere to a higher standard for building codes 12 Flood Landslide Localized flooding due to undersized culvert New development proposed for high slide region County public works is extending storm water drainage system in this area, culvert replacement can be incorporated into this Scope of Work. Confirm that this area is not designated as a Critical Area per Comprehensive Plan Require significant set-back from slope edge for all structures Require strict drainage and storm water plans prior to issuing of permits Flood Multiple Flood Claims Require homes to be built to a higher base flood elevation here Conduct outreach to residents on flood risk and flood insurance Provide incentives for residents to elevate and/or flood proof their homes 15 22

23 Mitigation Interest Problem Statement Recommended Mitigation Strategy Map ID# Wildfire Flood Problem Statement: Localized flooding due to undersized culvert Wildfire evacuation routes are of concern within the county Coordinate with Bureau of Land Management and County Transportation Department to identify safety zones and evacuation routes. Develop a signage plan for designated evacuation routes Fire Earthqua ke Moderate to high fire risks exist in open field areas and north of HWY 35 and south of Spokane River. Area susceptible to higher levels of shaking Conduct outreach and education for home owners on fire prevention and defensible space. Develop plan to retrofit unreinforced masonry buildings. Require new buildings to adhere to a higher standard for building codes 12 Flood Landslide Recommended Mitigation Strategy: County public works is extending storm water drainage system in this area. Culvert replacement can be incorporated into this Scope of Work. Localized flooding due to undersized culvert New development proposed for high slide region County public works is extending storm water drainage system in this area, culvert replacement can be incorporated into this Scope of Work. Confirm that this area is not designated as a Critical Area per Comprehensive Plan Require significant set-back from slope edge for all structures Require strict drainage and storm water plans prior to issuing of permits Flood Multiple Flood Claims Require homes to be built to a higher base flood elevation here Conduct outreach to residents on flood risk and flood insurance Provide incentives for residents to elevate and/or flood proof their homes

24 Mitigation Interest Problem Statement Recommended Mitigation Strategy Map ID# Wildfire Landslide Problem Statement: New development proposed for high slide area Wildfire evacuation routes are of concern within the county Coordinate with Bureau of Land Management and County Transportation Department to identify safety zones and evacuation routes. Develop a signage plan for designated evacuation routes Fire Earthqua ke Moderate to high fire risks exist in open field areas and north of HWY 35 and south of Spokane River. Area susceptible to higher levels of shaking Conduct outreach and education for home owners on fire prevention and defensible space. Develop plan to retrofit unreinforced masonry buildings. Require new buildings to adhere to a higher standard for building codes 12 Flood Landslide Localized flooding due to undersized culvert New development proposed for high slide region County public works is extending storm water drainage system in this area, culvert replacement can be incorporated into this Scope of Work. Confirm that this area is not designated as a Critical Area per Comprehensive Plan Require significant set-back from slope edge for all structures Require strict drainage and storm water plans prior to issuing of permits Flood Multiple Flood Claims Require homes to be built to a higher base flood elevation here Conduct outreach to residents on flood risk and flood insurance Provide incentives for residents to elevate and/or flood proof their homes 15 24

25 Mitigation Interest Problem Statement Recommended Mitigation Strategy Map ID# Wildfire Landslide Problem Statement: New development proposed for high slide area Wildfire evacuation routes are of concern within the county Coordinate with Bureau of Land Management and County Transportation Department to identify safety zones and evacuation routes. Develop a signage plan for designated evacuation routes Fire Earthqua ke Moderate to high fire risks exist in open field areas and north of HWY 35 and south of Spokane River. Area susceptible to higher levels of shaking Conduct outreach and education for home owners on fire prevention and defensible space. Develop plan to retrofit unreinforced masonry buildings. Require new buildings to adhere to a higher standard for building codes 12 Flood Landslide Localized flooding due to undersized culvert New development proposed for high slide region County public works is extending storm water drainage system in this area, culvert replacement can be incorporated into this Scope of Work. Confirm that this area is not designated as a Critical Area per Comprehensive Plan Require significant set-back from slope edge for all structures Require strict drainage and storm water plans prior to issuing of permits Flood Multiple Flood Claims Require homes to be built to a higher base flood elevation here Conduct outreach to residents on flood risk and flood insurance Provide incentives for residents to elevate and/or flood proof their homes 15 25

26 Mitigation Interest Problem Statement Recommended Mitigation Strategy Map ID# Wildfire Landslide Problem Statement: New development proposed for high slide area Wildfire evacuation routes are of concern within the county Coordinate with Bureau of Land Management and County Transportation Department to identify safety zones and evacuation routes. Develop a signage plan for designated evacuation routes Fire Earthqua ke Moderate to high fire risks exist in open field areas and north of HWY 35 and south of Spokane River. Area susceptible to higher levels of shaking Conduct outreach and education for home owners on fire prevention and defensible space. Develop plan to retrofit unreinforced masonry buildings. Require new buildings to adhere to a higher standard for building codes 12 Flood Recommended Mitigation Strategy: Confirm that this area is not designated as a Landslide Critical Area per Comprehensive Plan Require Significant set-back from slope edge for all structures Require strict drainage and stormwater plans prior to issuing of permits Localized flooding due to undersized culvert New development proposed for high slide region County public works is extending storm water drainage system in this area, culvert replacement can be incorporated into this Scope of Work. Confirm that this area is not designated as a Critical Area per Comprehensive Plan Require significant set-back from slope edge for all structures Require strict drainage and storm water plans prior to issuing of permits Flood Multiple Flood Claims Require homes to be built to a higher base flood elevation here Conduct outreach to residents on flood risk and flood insurance Provide incentives for residents to elevate and/or flood proof their homes

27 Recommended Mitigation Strategies Discovery Process Interviews Initial Research (Comprehensive Plans, Land Use Plans, Capital Improvement Plan, etc.) Discovery Meeting FEMA Publications Mitigation Ideas Developing the Mitigation Plan: Identifying Mitigation Actions and Implementing Strategies Leverage Universities Creativity Analysis focused 27

28 Link to Hazard Mitigation Plan Hazard Project Identified in Risk MAP Areas of Mitigation Interest? Earthquake Earthquake Flood Landslide Multi Consider stringent retrofits and protective measures to ensure essential facilities are resilient. Perform seismic upgrades of bridges and roadways Construct an alternative EOC outside of the known hazard zone Restore stability of degraded slopes through revegetation and slope stabilization efforts. Reduce vulnerability of key transportation routes to natural hazard events Yes, See AOMI #12 Not Included Not Included Yes, See AOMI #14 Not Included 28

29 Link to Hazard Mitigation Plan Identified in Risk MAP Areas of Mitigation Interest? Yes, See AOMI #12 Not Included Not Included Yes, See AOMI #14 Were areas of concern identified through RiskMAP also identified in the Hazard Mitigation Plan? If not, ensure they are added in plan update Were areas of concern identified in Hazard Mitigation Plan also identified through RiskMAP? If not, why? Consider updating HMP for accuracy Recommend community revisit Risk Report findings with more/all community players involved Not Included 29

30 Goal: Action Mitigation Strategies should lead to Action Identified and eventually Action Advanced Strategies should be Feasible Developed based on risk assessments AND coordinated with community stakeholders Resiliency Meeting- Initial findings presented Findings and Strategies reviewed and revised Final Risk Report shared AFTER resiliency meeting 30

31 Contact Kelly Stone, GISP, CFM Risk Analyst FEMA Region X Kelly.stone@fema.dhs.gov Amanda Siok, CFM Risk Analyst FEMA Region X Amanda.siok@fema.dhs.gov Links: NWHUG - NWHUG LinkedIn Site ?trk=myg_ugrp_ovr 31