Vurderingavøkonomiske effekter av innovasjoner i et FME Metode og eksempler FME-kontaktmøte, Oslo Frode Iglebæk 28.09.2017
Agenda NOWITECH: Potensiell og realisert verdi av 9 innovasjoner Trefordelingsforskning: Realisert og forventet lønnsomhetsforbedring fra 8 av45 prosjekter 1996-2011 (KPN/IPN) Metode og tilnærming Nowitech Treforedling 2
NOWITECH 2009-2017 Deep offshore wind technology (+30 m) Budget 320 MNOK Co-financed by the Research Council of Norway, industry and research partners 25 PhD/post doc grants Key target: innovations reducing cost of energy from offshore wind Vision: large scale deployment internationally leading Research partners: SINTEF Energy (host) IFE NTNU SINTEF Ocean (fmr. MARINTEK) SINTEF ICT SINTEF MC Associated research partners: DTU Wind Energy Michigan Tech Uni. MIT NREL Fraunhofer IWES Uni. Strathclyde TU Delft Nanyang TU Industry partners: CD-adapco DNV GL DONG Energy Fedem Technology Fugro OCEANOR Kongsberg Maritime Norsk Automatisering Statkraft Statoil Associated industry partners: Devold AMT AS Energy Norway Enova Innovation Norway NCEI NORWEA NVE Wind Cluster Norway 3
Realized economic impact from NOWITECH already exceeding the programme investment! Research investment: 35 MEUR (NOWITECH budget 2009-2017) Realized impact: 35+ MEUR (2 innovations + 3 companies) Potential impact: >5 billion EUR (7 innovations) 4
5
More than 40 innovations from NOWITECH 2009-2017 3Dfloat integrated model TRL7 3DWind park wake model TRL6 INVALS general purpose optimization TRL8 Commercial grade rotor CFD TRL5 SIMO-RIFLEX TRL7 WindOpt TRL4 Real time hybrid model test in ocean basin TRL5 Novel floater TRL5 Variational Multiscale Error Estimator TRL3 www.ifem.no TRL3 ASHES (SIMIS AS) www.ashes.no TRL7 Seawatch Wind Lidar Buoy TRL9 CFD simulation TRL5 Droplet erosion resistant blade coatings TRL3 Droplet erosion testing TRL5 Fleet optimization TRL5 Gearbox fault detection TRL3 Gearbox vulnerability map TRL3 Dual layer corrosion protection coatings TRL5 NOWIcob TRL6 REACT/Remote Presence (www.emip.no) TRL5 Routing and scheduling TRL2 Thermally sprayed SiC coatings TRL5 Buckling resistant blades TRL3 Fatigue damage simulation TRL4 PSST Power System Simulation TRL5 NetOp network optimization TRL4 Viper Estimate Energy Output from OWF TRL4 Smartgrid Lab HVDC grid TRL4 Control of multi-terminal HVDC grid TRL4 Wind Supply to Oil & Gas TRL3 Turbine control TRL3 Wind turbine electrical interaction TRL4 Network Reduction TRL3 STAS Linear State-Space W.P. Plant Analysis TRL4 PM generator magnetic vibrations TRL4 PM generator integrated design TRL3 Wind farm collection grid optimization TRL2 Long distance AC transmission TRL3 Wideband model of wind farm collection grid TRL2 Numerical model Technology / process New business entity (spin-off) 6
Review of 11 select innovations 3Dfloat integrated model TRL7 SIMO-RIFLEX TRL7 ASHES (SIMIS AS) www.ashes.no TRL7 Seawatch Wind Lidar Buoy TRL9 Dual layer corrosion protection coatings TRL5 NOWIcob TRL6 REACT/Remote Presence (www.emip.no) TRL5 Thermally sprayed SiC coatings TRL5 NetOp network optimization TRL4 STAS Linear State-Space W.P. Plant Analysis TRL4 Long distance AC transmission TRL3 Numerical model Technology / process New business entity (spin-off) 7
Numerical models SIMO-RIFLEX TRL 7 3Dfloat integrated model TRL 7 NetOp network optimization TRL 4 STAS Linear State- Space W.P. Plant Analysis TRL 4 NOWIcob TRL6 Software Integrated coupled analysis of Complete structure Wind loads Sea loads Improved load prediction Reduced cost and risk Methodology Optimization of offshore grid layout Wind farm clusters HVDC interconnectors Methodology Design of control algorithms for wind power plants Optimize production Reduce turbine fatigue Software Optimization of maintenance and logistics strategies Decision support tool 2500 MEUR 400 MEUR 1100 MEUR 400 MEUR 8
Technology / process Seawatch Wind Lidar Buoy TRL 9 Commercial product Met-ocean buoy with LiDAR Measuring wind speed at different altitudes. Fugro OCEANOR Long distance AC transmission TRL 3 Concept/method Control strategy Reduce electrical loss in long HVAC export cables Loss reduction: 1 %-point Dual layer corrosion protection coatings TRL5 Methodology Optimize corrosion protection Low-cost coating / short maintenance intervals vs. Expensive dual layer coating / long maintenance intervals 10 MEUR 200 MEUR 150 MEUR 9
Company spin-offs Seram Coatings AS SIMIS AS EMIP AS (Remote inspection) Thermasic an innovative method for thermal spraying of silicon carbide (SiC). Generic technology Large range of future application areas High commercial potential Based on PhD work in Nowitech. www.seramcoatings.com Ashes wind turbine simulation software. Integrated simulation of e.g. wind loads, sea waves, gravity, buoyancy, and generator loads. Based on post.doc work in Nowitech www.simis.io REACT technology for remote inspection and maintenance of offshore turbines. IP owned by Norsk Automatisering. Funded by several RCN/EU projects. Based on PhD work in Nowitech. www.emip.no Not estimated Not estimated 250 MEUR 10
20 MNOK investment in 2016 Thermal spraying of silicon carbide (SiC). 11
CONCLUSION: > 5 billion EUR potential economic impact Research investment: 35 MEUR Realized impact: 35+ MEUR Exceeds the programme investment! Potential impact: >5 billion EUR Quantified potential for 7 innovations Potential of the other innovations not estimated Initial NOWITECH project investment MEUR 320 MNOK (2009-2017) 35 Realized impact MEUR Dudgeon foundations (Statoil/Statkraft) 25 Seawatch buoy (Fugro OCEANOR) 10 Seram Coatings AS New company SIMIS AS New company EMIP AS (Remote Inspection) New company Total (MEUR) 35 Potential impact NPV Long Distance AC Transmission 200 NOWIcob 400 Remote Inspection (REACT/EMIP AS) 250 STAS 1100 Dual Layer Corrosion Protection Coating 150 SIMA (SIMO/RIFLEX) and 3Dfloat 2,500 NetOp/PowerGIM 400 Total (MEUR) 5,000 12
Metodikk anvendt for NOWITECH 13
Hva er en innovasjon? Stor spennvidde: Kunnskapsgrunnlag ny viten Teoretiske modeller Strategier Programvare Produkter Tjenester...beskrevet i: Papers Eksperimentell kode Resultater fra lab/forsøk Konsepter Prototyper etc. Fra TRL 2 (technology concept formulated)... til TRL 7 (system prototype demonstration in operational environment) 14
Utgangspunktet Egendeklarasjon av: Oppnådde resultater Nytt selskap Anvendt av industri Lisensierttil tredjeparter Potensiell impact Kostnadsreduksjon Redusert risiko Verdiskaping 15
Systematisering 16
Valg av innovasjoner 40 innovasjoner brutto 10 videreutviklet / industrialisert i samarbeid med industrien gjennom parallelle/påfølgende KPN/IPN 30 øvrige: Begrenset bedriftsøkonomisk verdi (eller umulig å regne på...) Utvalgskriterium: Aktiv involvering av industripartnerne Videreutviklet gjennom KPN/IPN el.l. 17
Markedsutvikling basert på WindEurope s Central Scenario Accumulated capacity (GW) 70 60 Offshore wind installations (GW) 66,5 50 40 54.0 GW of new capacity added 2017-2030 30 20 23,5 10 8,0 0 2014 2020 2030 Sources: WindEurope (2017): The European offshore wind industry. Key trends and statistics 2016 EWEA (2015): Wind energy scenarios for 2030 18
Avledede forutsetninger fra Central Scenario Red figures = Central scenario Black figures = Linear inter/extrapolation 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 New installations (GW) 1.5 3.0 1.5 2.8 4.3 4.3 Accumulated installations (GW) 8.0 11.0 12.5 23.5 45.0 66.5 No. of new windfarms/yr 8.6 3.0 5.5 8.6 8.6 Accumulated no. of windfarms 81 103 146 189 Av. size of windfarm (GW) 0.38 0.35 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Inter/ekstrapolering mellom oppgitte datapunkter Average size (MW) of offshore wind farm projects 0.35 GW 2015 19
Utfordringer Et scenario (ala WindEurope) er bare ett (av flere mulige) scenarioer Scenarioet er utformet basert på input fra: Industri Myndigheter Eksperter Forskningsmiljø Mao det beste vi har 20
Beregning av markedspotensial for hver innovasjon Kostnadsreduksjon + Inntektsøkning = Gevinst Beregnet pr f.eks: Installert kapasitet (GW) Produsert energi (GWh) Vindpark Turbin Understell Kilo stål Offshore-operasjon. * Informasjonsgrunnlag: Scenarioer Kunder/brukere Markedsanalysebyråer Markedsstørrelse og markedsutvikling Forventet markedsutvikling (størrelse) uttrykt i: Installert kapasitet (GW) Produsert energi (GWh) Antall vindparker Antall turbiner Antall understell. * Vurderingsgrunnlag: Studier og rapporter Kundeuttalelser Egnefaglige vurderinger Anvendelse og antatt relevans Faktorer somer vurdert: Type vindpark Type understell Vanndybde Avstand til land etc. Faktor typisk: 20 %, 50 %, 100 % 21
Beregning kontantstrøm og netto nåverdi 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Gevinst MEUR * Markedsstørrelse Relevans Gevinst (korrigert) * = Årlig gevinst over antatt levetid, f.eks: 10 år 25 år Gevinster og investeringer neddiskonteres (5 %) (kapitalkostnad, rentekostnad) Investeringer Tilleggsinvesteringer for å ta i bruk innovasjonen, f.eks: 3 år 5 år 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 Investment (MEUR) - 3 yrs prior to operation Annual saving (nominal values) 22
Eksempel: Long distance AC transmission Long distance AC transmission TRL 3 Control strategy for minimizing electrical losses in long HVAC export cables Continuous adjustment of cable operating voltage Loss reduction: 1 %-point of produced electricity Quantified potential: NPV 200 MEUR 23
Forutsetninger basert på et publisert paper REFERENCES Gustavsen, Bjørn and Olve Mo (2016) Variable Transmission Voltage for Loss Minimization in Long Offshore Wind Farm AC Export Cables, DOI 10.1109/TPWRD.2016.2581879, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery O. Mo, B. Gustavsen, EERA Deepwind 2016 presentation, Feb 2016, http://www.sintef.no/globalassets/project/eera-deepwind2016/presentations/b2_olve-mo.pdf ASSUMPTIONS Wind farm size Investment period Operation period 1.2 GW 10 yrs 25 yrs Capacity factor 46 % Full load hours Annual electricity production per 1.2 GW farm 4030 hrs 4836 GWh Loss reduction (percent points) 1.0 % Loss reduction (GWh) per 1.2 GW farm 48.4 GWh Market relevance (applicable new installations) 20 % Inflation rate 2.0 % Discount rate (cost of capital) 5.0 % Electricity price Annual savings/yr per GW installed Additional required investment per GW 50 EUR/MWh 2.0 MEUR 10.0 MEUR 24
Investeringer 3 år før idriftsettelse. 25 års levetid Relevant for 20 % av parkene (avh. av avstand til land) Antatt fremtidig kraftpris 50 EUR/MWh (i dag ca 100) Årlig gevinst 2 MEUR/GW (redusert effekttap) Nødvendig tilleggsinvestering på 10 MEUR/GW 2020 første installasjon 2029 siste installasjon 2054 siste driftsår Regnearket går til 2054 25
Beregning av netto nåverdi (NPV) CASHFLOW AND NPV [MEUR] 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2054 NPV MEUR Investment (3 years prior to operation) 5.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 - - - - Annual saving (nominal values) - - - 1.1 2.8 4.6 6.3 8.0 9.8 11.5 13.2 15.0 16.7 18.4 1.7 Net profit/yr (nominal values) -5.5-8.6-8.6-7.5-5.8-4.0-2.3-0.6 1.2 2.9 4.6 15.0 16.7 18.4 1.7 113 Net profit/yr (real values) -5.5-8.8-8.9-8.0-6.2-4.4-2.6-0.6 1.4 3.5 5.7 18.6 21.2 23.8 3.6 184 Total new installations (GW) Central scenario 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Applicable new installations (GW) 20 % 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Accumulated new applicable installations 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.1 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.6 200 MEUR Investment 2017: 10 MEUR/GW * 2.8 GW * 20 % = 5.5 MEUR Annual saving 2020: 2 MEUR/GW * 2.8 GW * 20 % = 1.1 MEUR 26
SIMO-RIFLEX and 3Dfloat SIMO-RIFLEX TRL 7 3Dfloat integrated model TRL 7 Software simulation tools coupled analysis Cost reduction: Reduced materials use Relevant for both floaters and bottom fixed Quantified potential: NPV 2500 MEUR ASSUMPTIONS Wind farm size Project duration (technology obsolete after this) 1,0 GW 10 yrs Market relevance (applicable new installations) 100 % Materials weight - floater 3 670 tons Materials weight - monopile 1 370 tons Reduced materials use (tower, substructure, mooring) 5 % Unit costs (materials) 5.0 EUR/kg à Materials savings per turbine - floater à Materials savings per turbine - monopile Turbine size à No. of turbines per wind park (1 GW) Materials savings per 1 GW - floater park Materials savings per 1 GW - monopile park 918 keur 343 keur 6.0 MW 167 turbines 153 MEUR 57 MEUR Floater park share 15 % Monopile park share 85 % Total additional investments per 1 GW park 1.0 MEUR Discount rate (cost of capital) 5 % 27
10 års levetid for teknologien (programvaren) Relevant for 100 % av parkene Redusert materialkostn. pga mer nøyaktig beregning Kostnadsgevinst pr. turbin omregnet pr. park Antatt økt OPEX pr. GW 3 år design og byggefase Gevinst beregnet for 2020-2030 28
SIMA (SIMO/RIFLEX) and 3Dfloat NPV estimate CASHFLOW AND NPV [MEUR] 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 NPV MEUR Investments - 3 years prior to operation 2,8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 - - - Annual saving - floater parks (nominal values) - - - 63.1 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 Annual saving - monopile parks (nom. values) - - - 133.4 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 Net profit/yr (nominal values) -2.8-4.3-4.3 192.2 303.0 303.0 303.0 303.0 303.0 303.0 303.0 307.3 307.3 307.3 2 183 Net profit (real values) -2.8-4.4-4.5 204.0 327.9 334.5 341.2 348.0 355.0 362.1 369.3 382.1 389.7 397.5 2 551 Total new installations (GW) Central scen. 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Applicable new installations (GW) (100 %) 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Accumulated new applicable installations 2.8 7.1 11.4 15.7 20.0 24.3 28.6 32.9 37.2 41.5 45.8 2500 MEUR 29
Fugro OCEANOR Seawatch wind lidar buoy Floating met-ocean buoy Reduced cost of collecting data Wind speed at different altitudes, waves, currents NOWITECH contributed to the development. 80-100 MNOK commercial product revenues since 2012 Men trolig mer korrekt å se på margin (netto gevinst) eller verdiskaping Realized revenues > 10 MEUR 30
Dudgeon (Statoil/Statkraft) Selection of monopile rather than jacket foundation...for relatively deep water and large turbines Importance of non-linear hydrodynamics viewed against the structural responses in an integrated design tool The Dudgeon wind farm is expected to produce 1.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity per year. Realized impact > 25 MEUR Realized impact Risk and cost reduction through reducing uncertainty Improved modeling of both fatigue and extreme loads Consensus estimate by SINTEF, Statoil and Statkraft 31
Verdien av et utvalg FoU-prosjekter i treforedlingsindustrien Frode Iglebæk, Trondheim, 21. november 2012 www.impello.no
Prosjektets mandat og målsetting Oppdragsgiver: Stiftelsen Papirindustriens Forskningsinstitutt Bakgrunn 45 FoU-prosjekter utført av PFI de siste 15 år. Norske Skog, Peterson, Borregaard og Södra Cell som viktige industripartnere Målsetting Kvantifisere verdien av treforedlingsforskningen for 8 prosjekter (1996-2013): - Vitenskapelige resultater - Lønnsomhet - Kommersialisering og industrialisering 33
Hovedbudskap: 100 mill kr investert i FoU + 130 mill kr investert i fabrikker = >1 mrd kr i forbedret lønnsomhet Internrente IRR = 30% Payback = 2,3 år 34
Investeringer og akkumulert lønnsomhetsforbedring Investeringer [MNOK] 100 1000 000 Lønnsomhetsforbedring [MNOK] 1000 100 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 Industriinvesteringer (implementering etter prosjektslutt) FoU-investeringer (NFR + industri) Akkumulert lønnsomhetsforbedring 80 000 60 000 40 000 200 000 >100 MNOK realisert pr 2011 20 000 - -200 000 0-20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Data gjelder for 5 av 8 prosjekter 0 - -200-20 000 35
36
Lønnsomhet beregnet for 5 av 8 prosjekter 37
Prosjektets kontantstrøm basert på: FoU-investeringer innenfor prosjektet: NFR prosjektregnskap Tilleggsinvesteringer utenfor prosjektet relatert til implementering av resultater i industribedriftene: Estimater fra intervjuede selskaper Lønnsomhetseffekter: Estimater fra intervjuede selskaper Ny omsetning fra nye produkter (som ikke erstatter gamle produkter) Økt dekningsbidrag (differanse) mellom nye og gamle produkter Reduserte kostnader (f.eks. råvarer, energiforbruk, produksjonseffektivitet ) Lønnsomhetsforverring tapt omsetning og/eller dekningsbidrag 38
Oppsummering 39
PFI-prosjektene vs. NOWITECH-innovasjonene Mer vitenskapelig (men 10 ganger så stort budsjett) Mer markedsnær teknologi (KPN, IPN) Resultater tatt i bruk av industrien Høyt TRL-nivå Dybdeintervjuer med alle prosjektpartnere Ærlige forsøk hos industrien på å beregne realisert lønnsomhetsforbedring Enklere å utarbeide prognose for neste 10 år basert på historikk 40
Det er absolutt mulig å beregne verdi av FoU... men det er litt tricky Råd: Benytt aksepterte scenarioer Ikke gjør ting for komplisert Regn på det som er mulig (og utelat resten) Vær åpen om forutsetningene (og vær edruelig) Aksepter at det ikke er en 100 % vitenskapelig metode Vær tabloid Bedre med et cirka-tall enn ingen tall......og om ikke annet så kan det gir gode diskusjoner og positiv omtale! 41