Manpower Q4 213 Employment Outlook Survey Norway
Q4/13 Contents Norway Employment Outlook 3 Regional Comparisons 4 Sector Comparisons 6 Global Employment Outlook 9 International Comparisons Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) 12 International Comparisons Americas 16 International Comparisons Asia Pacific 18 About ManpowerGroup 2 Om undersøkelsen 2 Ordliste over bransjer 21 2
Norway Employment Outlook The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter 213 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 75 employers in Norway. All survey participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of Desember 213 as compared to the current quarter? Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the. Hiring intentions decline by 2 percentage points quarterover-quarter and are 4 percentage points weaker yearover-year. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +3% and is the weakest since 4Q 29. While hiring prospects remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook is 4 percentage points weaker year-over-year. From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise. Increase Decrease No Change Don't Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted 3rd quarter 29 4th quarter 29 1st quarter 2 2nd quarter 2 3rd quarter 2 4th quarter 2 1st quarter 211 2nd quarter 211 3rd quarter 211 4th quarter 211 1st quarter 212 2nd quarter 212 3rd quarter 212 4th quarter 212 1st quarter 213 2nd quarter 213 3rd quarter 213 4th quarter 213 11 11 13 14 12 5 15 9 6 7 2 5 7 2 3 8 82 81 83 8 8 93 81 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 5 4 11 9 5 3 12 2 7 6 7 9 7 5 9 18 4 78 14 13 12 6 79 3 6 8 12 4 83 1 8 9 13 5 76 6 8 5 11 3 81 5 8 7 8 3 86 3 5 7 8 2 88 2 6 7 9 3 87 1 6 4 7 3 89 1 4 3 5 Norwegian employers report modest hiring intentions for the October-December time frame. With 7% of employers expecting to increase payrolls, 3% anticipating a decrease and 89% forecasting no change, the resulting stands at +4%. 4 3 2 - -2 3 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213
Regional Comparisons Employers anticipate workforce gains in all five regions during the October-December time frame. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported in Mid Norway, where the stands at +9%. Some job gains are anticipated in Greater Oslo and Northern Norway with Outlooks of +5% and +4%, respectively. Meanwhile, slow-paced hiring activity is forecast for both South/West and Eastern Norway with Outlooks of +2%. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook for Mid Norway improves by 6 percentage points but the South/West Outlook is 4 percentage points weaker. Elsewhere, hiring plans remain relatively stable or are unchanged. When compared with 4Q 212, hiring prospects weaken in four of the five regions. The most noteworthy declines of 8 and 7 percentage points are reported in the South/West and Greater Oslo, respectively. However, the Outlook for Mid Norway improves by 7 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect to grow payrolls in all five regions during 4Q 213, with the strongest hiring prospects reported in Mid Norway. However, hiring intentions weaken in three regions quarter-over-quarter and four regions year-over-year. Eastern Greater Oslo Mid Northern 2 3 4 4 5 7 9 9 South/West 2 2 - -5 5 15 2 25 3 Eastern +2* (+3**)% Slow-paced job gains are expected in the coming quarter with employers reporting a of +2%. The Outlook remains relatively stable quarterover-quarter but declines by 2 percentage points yearover-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect a mild hiring climate in the next three months. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but decline slightly when compared with 4Q 212. 5 4 3 2 - -2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 * ** 4
Greater Oslo +5 (+7)% Employers anticipate some opportunities to grow staffing levels in the next three months reporting a of +5%. Hiring plans are unchanged when compared with 3Q 213 but weaken by 7 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the coming quarter. The Outlook is slightly stronger quarter-over-quarter but moderately weaker year-over-year. Mid +9 (+9)% Job seekers can expect to benefit from a cautiously optimistic hiring pace in 4Q 213 with employers reporting a of +9%. Hiring prospects strengthen both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 6 and 7 percentage points, respectively. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate some opportunities to increase payrolls during the coming quarter. The Outlook is slightly stronger quarter-overquarter and improves moderately year-over-year. 5 4 3 2 5 4 3 2 - -2 - -2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Northern +4 (+4)% Some job gains are expected in the October-December time frame with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +4%. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but decline by 3 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect a conservative hiring pace in 4Q 213. The Outlook is slightly weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-overyear. South/West +2 (+2)% Job seekers are likely to face the weakest labor market since 1Q 211 in the coming quarter, according to employers who report a of +2%. Hiring intentions decline by 4 percentage points quarterover-quarter and are 8 percentage points weaker yearover-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast slow-paced hiring activity in the next three months. Hiring plans are moderately weaker both quarter-overquarter and year-over-year. 5 4 3 2 5 4 3 2 - -2 - -2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 5
Sector Comparisons Payrolls are expected to grow in six of the nine industry sectors during the October-December time frame. Employers report the most optimistic hiring plans in the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector and the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector with s of +11% and +%, respectively. Construction sector employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans with an Outlook of +7% and Outlooks stand at +6% in both the Mining & Quarrying sector and the Transport, Storage & Communication sector. However, employers report negative hiring prospects in three sectors including the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector with an Outlook of -4%. Hiring plans improve in five of the nine industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter. The most noteworthy increases of 4 and 3 percentage points are reported by employers in the Construction sector and the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector, respectively. Elsewhere, employers in two sectors report weaker hiring prospects, including the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector with a percentage point Outlook decline. Year-over-year, employers report weaker hiring prospects in eight of the nine industry sectors. A considerable decrease of 14 percentage points is reported in the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector, while hiring plans are 7 percentage points weaker in the Construction sector. The Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector Outlook declines by 6 percentage points and employers in the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector report a 5 percentage point decrease. Meanwhile, Manufacturing sector employers report unchanged hiring intentions. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast workforce gains in seven of the nine industry sectors during the upcoming quarter. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported by employers in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector and the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector. Quarterover-quarter, hiring plans strengthen in four sectors but also decline in four. Year-over-year, employers report weaker hiring prospects in eight of the nine sectors. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying Public & Social Transport, Storage & Communication Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels -8-4 -1-2 -1 1 4 5 6 5 9 7 6 13 8 11 11-15 - -5 5 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing -4 (-8)% Job seekers can expect to face the weakest hiring prospects since 1Q 211 in the coming quarter with employers reporting a of -4%. The Outlook is considerably weaker both quarter-overquarter and year-over-year, declining by and 14 percentage points, respectively. 5 4 3 2 6 Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report downbeat hiring intentions for 4Q 213. Hiring prospects weaken sharply when compared with the previous quarter and also decline considerably year-over-year. - -2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213
Construction +7 (+9)% Employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the October-December time frame with a Net Employment Outlook of +7%. Hiring plans improve by 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but decline by 7 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a cautiously optimistic hiring pace in the next three months. The Outlook is slightly stronger quarter-overquarter but moderately weaker year-over-year. Electricity, Gas & Water -1 (+1 )% With a of -1% for 4Q 213 employers report uncertain hiring plans. While the Outlook is 2 percentage points stronger quarter-overquarter, employers report a 3 percentage point yearover-year decline. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report cautious hiring intentions for the coming quarter. Hiring prospects improve considerably when compared with the previous quarter but decline slightly year-over-year. 5 4 3 2 5 4 3 2 - -2 - -2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services + (+13)% Some opportunities for payroll growth are expected in 4Q 213 with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +%. Hiring prospects improve by 3 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter but weaken by 6 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate a steady hiring pace in the coming quarter. Hiring intentions are moderately stronger quarter-over-quarter but moderately weaker year-over-year. Manufacturing +4 (+8)% Some job gains are likely in 4Q 213 according to employers who report a of +4% for the second consecutive quarter. When compared with 4Q 212, the Outlook is also unchanged. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans for the next three months. Hiring intentions are unchanged both quarterover-quarter and year-over-year. 5 4 3 2 5 4 3 2 - -2 - -2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 7
Mining & Quarrying +6 (+5)% Employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the upcoming quarter with a of +6%. Hiring plans remain relatively stable quarterover-quarter but decline by 4 percentage points yearover-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate some workforce gains during the next three months. However, hiring plans are slightly weaker both quarterover-quarter and year-over-year. Public & Social -1 (-2)% With a of -1% for the coming quarter employers match the weakest forecast for the sector since the survey began in 3Q 23, last reported in 3Q 212. Hiring intentions decline by 2 percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report uncertain hiring plans for the next three months. The Outlook is moderately weaker when compared with the previous quarter and also declines slightly year-overyear. 5 4 3 2 5 4 3 2 - -2 - -2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Transport, Storage & Communication +6 (+5)% Employers expect some hiring opportunities in 4Q 213 and report a of +6%. Hiring plans strengthen by 2 percentage points quarter-overquarter but weaken by 2 percentage points year-overyear. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a conservative hiring pace in the coming quarter. While the Outlook is slightly stronger quarter-over-quarter, employers report a slight year-over-year decline. Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels +11 (+11)% Steady hiring activity is anticipated in 4Q 213 with employers reporting a of +11% for the second consecutive quarter. However, the Outlook declines by 5 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report respectable hiring intentions for the next three months. However, hiring prospects are slightly weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 - -2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 - -2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 8
Global Employment Outlook The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is Manpower- Group s quarterly index of employer hiring confidence. Over 65, hiring managers across 42 countries and territories were recently asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of December 213 as compared to the current quarter? Based on employer responses, general labor market conditions are expected to remain mostly positive with employers in 29 of the 42 countries and territories reporting that they plan to boost payrolls by varying degrees during the fourth quarter. This compares with positive hiring intentions reported by employers in 32 of 42 countries and territories during the July-September time frame. Worldwide, hiring expectations are strongest in India, Taiwan, Panama, Singapore and Brazil. The weakest opportunities for job seekers are expected in Italy, Spain and Finland. When compared with forecasts from the prior quarter and last year at this time, the fourth-quarter research reveals few signs that global hiring momentum will improve by any notable degree. In fact, hiring prospects are stronger in only 14 of 42 countries and territories when compared with the prior quarter, weaken in 19 and are unchanged in nine. Outlooks are stronger in 16 countries and territories when compared to 4Q 212, but hiring plans actually weaken in 25 and are unchanged in one. Overall, it appears that employers are carefully considering their options, and many are evidently prepared to adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward further hiring until they see clearer resolution to ongoing uncertainty in the marketplace. One notable exception is in India where fourth-quarter hiring plans are the most optimistic across the globe. In fact, India s hiring pace is expected to rebound decisively following four consecutive quarters of relatively lackluster forecasts. Elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region, payrolls are expected to grow in each of the eight countries and territories. s strengthen in three countries and territories in quarter-over-quarter comparisons, and weaken in two. Year-over-year, hiring plans improve in five, but weaken in three. The region s weakest Outlook for the last three months of the year is reported by Australian employers. In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, overall hiring intentions are just nominally weaker than in the prior quarter. Employers forecast jobs gains in 11 of 24 countries in the fourth quarter, compared to 14 positive forecasts reported three months ago. Payroll cuts, on the other hand, are expected in countries the same as in 3Q 213. Hiring plans improve in eight countries when compared to the prior quarter but weaken in 13. Year-over-year, the forecasts are stronger in eight countries but weaker in 15. Turkish employers report the region s strongest hiring plans, while the weakest Outlook is reported in Italy. Employers remain cautiously optimistic in the United Kingdom with Outlooks improving in most industry sectors in comparison to both the prior quarter and last year at this time. Hiring plans in the Americas remain positive in each of the countries participating in the research. When compared with the previous quarter, forecasts improve in three countries, weaken in four and are unchanged in three. The forecasts trend marginally weaker in a year-over-year comparison, with Outlooks also improving in three countries but declining in seven. Employers in Panama forecast the region s strongest fourthquarter hiring pace while those in Argentina report the least optimistic hiring plans. Following four years of steady improvement, the Outlook in the United States is the most optimistic reported since 2Q 28. The hiring pace in Brazil is expected to remain respectable through the end of the year despite a considerable decline in the Outlook year-over-year. Meanwhile, hiring activity is expected to continue at a steady pace in both Mexico and Canada. * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Survey Respondents by Region Americas 46% Asia Pacific 23% EMEA 31% For the Quarter 4 213 research ManpowerGroup surveyed more than 65, human resources directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide: 46% of respondents come from countries in the Americas; 23% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 31% from 24 countries in EMEA. 9
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global
Quarter-on-Quarter Movement Year-on-Year Movement STRONGER India 16 pts. Guatemala 7 pts. Singapore 6 pts. South Africa 4 pts. Ireland 3 pts. Sweden 3 pts. Belgium 2 pts. Greece 2 pts. Poland 2 pts. Costa Rica 1 pt. France 1 pt. Hong Kong 1 pt. United Kingdom 1 pt. United States 1 pt. Argentina pts. Canada pts. China pts. Czech Republic pts. Japan pts. Netherlands pts. Panama pts.* Slovakia pts.* Taiwan pts. Norway -1 pt. Austria -2 pts. Colombia -2 pts. Germany -2 pts. Spain -2 pts. Australia -3 pts. Hungary -3 pts. Italy -3 pts. Mexico -3 pts. Brazil -4 pts. Israel -4 pts.* Switzerland -4 pts. New Zealand -5 pts. Romania -5 pts. Turkey -6 pts.* Slovenia -7 pts.* Peru -8 pts. Bulgaria - pts.* Finland -11 pts.* WEAKER STRONGER India 22 pts. Greece 12 pts. South Africa 6 pts. Poland 5 pts. Guatemala 4 pts. Japan 4 pts. Argentina 3 pts. Hong Kong 3 pts. Ireland 3 pts. Slovakia 3 pts.* United Kingdom 3 pts. Singapore 2 pts. Taiwan 2 pts. United States 2 pts. Finland 1 pt.* Spain 1 pt. Czech Republic pts. Bulgaria -1 pt.* Canada -1 pt. China -1 pt. France -1 pt. Netherlands -1 pt. New Zealand -1 pt. Sweden -1 pt. Belgium -2 pts. Panama -2 pts.* Austria -3 pts. Germany -3 pts. Hungary -3 pts. Mexico -3 pts. Slovenia -3 pts.* Turkey -3 pts.* Colombia -4 pts. Israel -4 pts.* Norway -4 pts. Costa Rica -5 pts. Italy -5 pts. Australia -6 pts. Peru -6 pts. Switzerland -7 pts. Brazil -9 pts. Romania -12 pts. WEAKER 42 Countries and Territories 42 Countries and Territories *Indicates unadjusted data. 11
International Comparisons EMEA ManpowerGroup interviewed more than 2, employers across 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region to measure fourth-quarter hiring plans. Throughout the region the hiring pace is expected to be mixed. Positive hiring intentions are reported in 11 countries for the October-December time frame, negative hiring intentions are reported in countries. When compared with the previous quarter, hiring plans improve in only eight countries and weaken in 13. In a year-over-year comparison, the decline in employer sentiment is even more pronounced; Outlooks weaken in 15 countries and improve in only eight. Jobs growth is expected to be strongest in Turkey, Israel and the United Kingdom and weakest in Italy, Spain and Finland. Employers in Turkey continue to report the most upbeat hiring plans in the region. And despite the country s Outlook softening in both quarter-over-quarter and yearover-year comparisons, forecasts in all industry sectors and regions remain positive, with steady payroll gains expected in the country s Manufacturing, Pharmaceutical and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors. Elsewhere in the region, hiring plans are decidedly more uncertain. Opportunities for job seekers are expected to remain flat in France. Unemployment is the highest since 1999 and negative Outlooks are reported by employers in six of the country s industry sectors. Additionally, the forecast in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector sinks to its weakest level in more than four years despite an unexpected uptick in consumer spending. A notable exception to this subdued hiring activity is seen in the Finance & Business Services sector where hiring plans climb to the strongest level in over two years. German employers post their weakest fourth-quarter forecast since 29. However, the country s unemployment rate is the second lowest in the European Union and the vast majority of employers say they plan to keep their current workforces intact through the next three months. Opportunities for job seekers remain favorable in the Finance & Business Services sector, but hiring activity in the country s Manufacturing sector is expected to remain relatively soft. Meanwhile, the Outlook in Switzerland has again turned negative and matches the least optimistic forecast ever reported by Swiss employers. Dutch employers report a negative forecast for the sixth consecutive quarter, despite a cautiously optimistic Outlook reported by Construction sector employers. Employers in the United Kingdom are evidently responding to encouraging signs in the marketplace and continue to report cautiously optimistic hiring plans. Job seekers can expect to benefit from steady gains in the Finance & Business Services sector. And employers in two regions are anticipating noteworthy payroll gains through the end of the year: the Outlook in the East region is the strongest reported in nine years, while the forecast in the North West region is the strongest in over six years. Austria 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 No bar indicates of zero. Belgium 5 4 3 2 - -2 No bar indicates of zero. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 12
Bulgaria 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Bulgaria joined the survey in Q1 211. Finland 5 4 3 2 - -2 Finland joined the survey in Q4 212. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Czech Republic 5 4 3 2 - -2 Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 28. No bar indicates of zero. France 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 No bar indicates of zero. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Germany 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Hungary 5 4 3 2 - -2 Hungary joined the survey in Q3 29. No bar indicates of zero. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Greece 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Greece joined the survey in Q2 28. No bar indicates of zero. Ireland 5 4 3 2 - -2 No bar indicates of zero. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 13
Israel 5 4 3 2 - -2 Israel joined the survey in Q4 211. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Italy 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 No bar indicates of zero. Netherlands 5 4 3 2 Norway 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 No bar indicates of zero. - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Poland 5 4 3 2 - -2 Poland joined the survey in Q2 28. No bar indicates of zero. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Slovakia 5 4 3 2 - -2 Slovakia joined the survey in Q4 211. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Romania 5 4 3 2 - -2 Romania joined the survey in Q2 28. No bar indicates of zero. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Slovenia 5 4 3 2 - -2 Slovenia joined the survey in Q1 211. No bar indicates of zero. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 14
South Africa 5 4 3 2 - -2 South Africa joined the survey in Q4 26. No bar indicates of zero. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Sweden 5 4 3 2 - -2 No bar indicates of zero. Turkey 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Turkey joined the survey in Q1 211. Spain 5 4 3 2 - -2 No bar indicates of zero. 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Switzerland Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 25. No bar indicates of zero. UK 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 No bar indicates of zero. 15
International Comparisons Americas Nearly 3, employers from countries in North, Central and South America took part in the latest ManpowerGroup research to gauge expected hiring activity through the end of the calendar year. Outlooks remain positive throughout the region, although the pace of hiring is expected to slow in four countries and strengthen in only three when compared to the prior quarter s forecast. In a year-over-year comparison, hiring plans strengthen in three countries but weaken in the remaining seven. Job prospects are strongest in Panama, Brazil and Guatemala, and - as in the previous quarterweakest in Argentina, Canada and Costa Rica. The hiring pace in Panama is expected to remain active in the October-December time frame with solid Outlooks reported in each of the country s industry sectors. Despite the end of major work on the expansion of the Panama Canal, much still remains to complete the project. This, combined with ongoing construction of other infrastructure and hospitality projects, continues to generate demand for a variety of skills. Brazil s Outlook remains stronger than in most countries participating in the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, and employers continue to anticipate solid fourth-quarter payroll growth in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and the Services sectors. But clearly demand for workers is decreasing as Outlooks weaken across most industry sectors and regions in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons. Opportunities for job seekers continue to expand in the United States. Positive forecasts are reported in each of the country s industry sectors and regions, and the Outlook now stands at its strongest level since 2Q 28. Hiring plans are strongest among employers in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector. Hiring plans in Mexico decline slightly from both the prior quarter and a year ago. However, Outlooks remain positive in each of the country s industry sectors and regions. Hiring plans are particularly upbeat in the Manufacturing and Services sectors where approximately a quarter of all employers surveyed said they intended to add to their payrolls in the fourth quarter. Optimism remains measured among Canadian employers; Outlooks are positive in all industry sectors and regions, but forecasts weaken by varying degrees in six of sectors and three of four regions year-over-year. Construction sector employers report the strongest fourth-quarter hiring intentions with over one in four planning to add to their payrolls in the last three months of the year. In Argentina, meanwhile, a high inflation rate is causing a corresponding rise in wages, and employers are expecting only modest jobs growth in the fourth quarter. Argentina 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Argentina joined the survey in Q1 27. Brazil 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Brazil joined the survey in Q4 29. 16
Canada 5 4 3 2 Colombia 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Colombia joined the survey in Q4 28. Costa Rica 5 4 3 2 - -2 Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 26. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Guatemala 5 4 3 2 - -2 Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 28. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Mexico 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 No bar indicates of zero. Peru 5 4 3 2 - -2 Peru joined the survey in Q2 26. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Panama 5 4 3 2 - -2 Panama joined the survey in Q2 2. USA 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 No bar indicates of zero. 17
International Comparisons Asia Pacific ManpowerGroup interviewed over 15, employers from eight countries and territories to measure fourthquarter hiring intentions in the Asia Pacific region. Positive forecasts are reported throughout the region, with hiring plans growing stronger in three countries quarter-over-quarter but declining in two. In a year-overyear comparison, Outlooks improve in five countries and territories but weaken in the remaining three. The most optimistic s are reported in India, Taiwan and Singapore. Meanwhile, the Outlook in Australia continues to trend softer, declining to its weakest level in more than four years. India s rebounds dramatically from the July-September time frame, with employers reporting considerably stronger confidence across all regions and nearly all industry sectors in comparison to both 3Q 213 and 4Q 212 levels. Job seekers are likely to benefit from a surge in demand for talent among firms in IT/ITeS, banking and construction. Furthermore, despite the re-emergence of robust growth in India s established industrialized areas, jobs growth is expected to be even stronger in the less industrialized sites of India s North region including the states of Jharkand and Bihar. Still, employability skills remain a challenge for a number of Indian hiring managers. Many acknowledge that there is an abundance of business and engineering graduates, but that too many of them lack the soft skills that are increasingly necessary as India becomes even more interconnected to the global marketplace. Opportunities for job seekers continue to be bright in Taiwan. Employers are exceedingly optimistic across all industry sectors. Outlooks are positive and improve i n five of six industry sectors year-over-year with hiring opportunities growing considerably in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and the Mining & Construction sectors compared to last year at this time. Hiring intentions also remain positive in Japan where Outlooks improve by varying degrees in all industry sectors compared to year-ago levels. In mainland China, Outlooks remain positive in all industry sectors and regions. However, employer hiring plans continue to decline in year-over-year comparisons across most sectors and regions. The most noteworthy declines in employer confidence are reported in the Mining & Construction, Services, and the Transportation & Utilities industry sectors downturns which might be partly explained by the government s stated intention to shift from government-backed investment projects to a more consumer-driven economy. Employers in Australia are even less optimistic and for the sixth consecutive quarter report the region s weakest hiring plans. Much of this uncertainty stems from the sharp, ongoing decline of the country s mining industry, as well as associated industries such as construction and transportation. Australia 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 No bar indicates of zero. China 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 China joined the survey in Q2 25. 18
Hong Kong 5 4 3 2 - -2 No bar indicates of zero. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 India 5 4 3 2 - -2 India joined the survey in Q3 25. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Japan 5 4 3 2 New Zealand 5 4 3 2 - -2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 - -2 New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 24. No bar indicates of zero. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 Singapore Taiwan 7 5 6 5 4 3 2 - -2-3 -4-5 -6 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 4 3 2 - -2 Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 25. 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 19
Om ManpowerGroup ManpowerGroup arbeider med selskaper og mennesker over hele verden. Dette gir oss forståelse og kunnskap om dagens og fremtidens arbeidsmarked. ManpowerGroup er verdensledende i å finne riktig bemanningsløsning ut i fra det enkelte individs potensiale og bedriftens ambisjoner. På denne måten skaper vi Innovative Workforce Solutions. ManpowerGroup hjelper små og store bedrifter i alle bransjer under fire varemerker: Experis, Manpower, ManpowerGroup Solutions og Right Management. Vi er lokalisert i mer enn 8 land og landområder over hele verden. Ved global forståelse og lokal kompetanse øker vi våre kunders suksess. Virksomheten i Norge genererer over 35 oppdrag årlig. Vi har kontorer i 33 byer og tettsteder og 11 medarbeidere knyttet til oss. ManpowerGroup er en samfunnsansvarlig bedrift, vi er opptatt av mangfold og ser alltid etter kvalifiserte kandidater uavhengig av alder, kjønn, funksjonsevne og kulturell bakgrunn. 2 Om undersøkelsen Regioner: Stor-Oslo: Oslo, Akershus Østlandet: Hedmark, Oppland, Telemark, Buskerud, Østfold, Vestfold Sør- og Vestlandet: Agder, Rogaland, Hordaland, Sogn og Fjordane Midt-Norge: Møre og Romsdal, Sør og Nord Trøndelag Nord-Norge: Nordland, Troms, Finnmark Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer blir gjennomført kvartalsvis for å måle arbeidsgivernes planer om å øke eller redusere arbeidsstyrken i løpet av det neste kvartalet. Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsundersøkelse er den mest omfattende, pålitelige og framtidsrettede bemanningsundersøkelse i verden. Undersøkelsen er blitt utført i mer enn 5 år. Forskjellige faktorer underbygger suksessen til Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer: Unik: Undersøkelsen har ingen paralleller i størrelse, omfang, levetid og fokusområde. Ser fremover: Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer er en undersøkelse som ser fremover, idet den spør arbeidsgivere om å forutsi bemanning i det kommende kvartal. Dette i motsetning til andre undersøkelser som fokuserer på retrospektive data og rapporterer hva som hendte tidligere. Fokusert: I mer enn 5 år har undersøkelsen vært basert på ett og samme spørsmål. Uavhengig: Undersøkelsen er utført blant utvalgte representanter fra arbeidsgivere i hvert enkelt land. Arbeidsgiverne er valgt uavhengig av om de er kunder av ManpowerGroup. Omfattende: Undersøkelsen er basert på intervjuer med over 65 offentlige og private arbeidsgivere i 42 land og landområder for å måle forventet arbeidsmarkedstrend hvert kvartal. Dette utvalget bidrar til at analyser kan utføres i spesielle sektorer og regioner og derved fremskaffe detaljert informasjon. Spørsmålet i undersøkelsen Alle arbeidsgivere som deltar i undersøkelsen globalt blir stilt det samme spørsmålet, Hvilken endring i antall ansatte forventer du i din bedrift for neste kvartal som ender i desember 213 i forhold til forrige kvartal? Metodikk Undersøkelsen er utført ved en godkjent metodikk i tråd med de beste kvalitetsnormer for denne typen undersøkelser. Undersøkelsesgruppene for de 42 land og landområdene hvor undersøkelsen gjennomføres inkluderer ManpowerGroups Internal Research Team and Infocorp Ltd. Undersøkelsen er strukturert slik at den er representativ for hvert enkelt landsøkonomi. Feilmarginen for alle nasjonale, lokale og globale data er ikke større enn +/- 3.9 %. I Norge er 75 arbeidsgivere spurt. Dette antallet intervjuer gir en feilmargin for den norske del av undersøkelsen på +/- 3.6 %. Netto forventet bemanning I denne rapporten benytter vi utrykket netto forventet bemanning. Dette tallet er beregnet ved å ta prosenten av arbeidsgivere som forventer en økning i antall ansatte og trekke fra prosentandelen av arbeidsgivere som forventer en nedgang i antall ansatte i sin bedrift for neste kvartal. Resultatene sammenlignes både med forrige kvartal, omtalt som kvartalsvis, og med samme kvartal året før, omtalt som på årsbasis. Sesongjusteringer Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Argentina, Australia, Belgia, Brasil, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Frankrike, Guatemala, Hellas, Hongkong, India, Irland, Italia, Japan, Kina, Mexico, Nederland, New Zealand, Norge, Peru, Polen, Romania, Singapore, Sør-Afrika, Spania, Sverige, Sveits, Storbritannia, Taiwan, Tsjekkia, Tyskland, Ungarn, USA og Østerrike for å gi større innsikt i undersøkelsestallene. Disse justeringene gjør det mulig å vurdere resultatene uten de ansettelsesfluktuasjoner som normalt oppstår på samme tid hvert år slik at vi får et tydeligere bilde av situasjonen over tid. ManpowerGroup ønsker å foreta disse justeringene for de øvrige landene etter hvert som flere historiske data er innsamlet.
Historikk 1962: Første versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer ble lansert i USA og Canada. 1966: Storbritannia lanserer en undersøkelse tilsvarende den i USA, men kaller den for ManpowerGroups kvartalsvise bemanningsprognose. Denne undersøkelsen benytter den samme fremtidsforskning som den amerikanske undersøkelsen og er den første i sitt slag i Europa. 1976: Andre versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer blir lansert i USA og Canada. Forskningsmetodikken blir oppdatert i henhold til utviklingen av markedsundersøkelser. 22: ManpowerGroup i Storbritannia benytter en forbedret undersøkelsesmetode i sin kvartalsvise arbeidsmarkedsundersøkelse. ManpowerGroups kontorer i Mexico og Irland lanserer undersøkelsen i sine respektive land. 23: Tredje versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer (MEOS) blir lansert for å utvide programmet til totalt 18 land: Australia, Østerrike, Belgia, Canada, Frankrike, Tyskland, Hongkong, Irland, Italia, Japan, Mexico, Nederland, Norge, Singapore, Spania, Sverige, Storbritannia og USA. 24: ManpowerGroup i New Zealand lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. 25: ManpowerGroup i Taiwan, Kina, India og Sveits lanserer Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. 26: ManpowerGroup i Costa Rica, Peru og Sør-Afrika lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer i tredje kvartal er innarbeidet i tallene fra Australia, Østerrike, Belgia, Frankrike, Tyskland, Hongkong, Irland, Italia, Japan, Mexico, Nederland, Norge, Singapore, Spania og Sverige. 27: ManpowerGroup i Argentina lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra New Zealand fra første kvartal. 28: ManpowerGroup i Colombia, Hellas, Tsjekkia, Polen, Romania og Guatemala lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Kina og Taiwan i andre kvartal, og i tredje kvartal i tallene fra Sveits og Taiwan. 29: ManpowerGroup i Ungarn lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i tredje kvartal og Brasil i fjerde kvartal. 2: ManpowerGroup i Panama lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i andre kvartal. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Peru i andre kvartal og i Costa Rica i fjerde kvartal. 211: Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer lanseres i første kvartal i Manpower i Bulgaria, Slovenia og Tyrkia. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i første kvartal i tallene fra Argentina og Sør-Afrika. Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer lanseres i Israel og Slovakia i fjerde kvartal. 212: ManpowerGroup i Tsjekkia, Hellas, Guatemala, Polen og Romania innarbeider sesongjusteringer i tallene fra andre kvartal. ManpowerGroup i Finland lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i fjerde kvartal og sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Colombia for første gang. 213: ManpowerGroup i Ungarn innarbeider sesongjusteringer i tallene fra tredje kvartal og Brasil fra fjerde kvartal. Ordliste over bransjer Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying Public & Social Transport, Storage & Communication Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels Jordbruk, skogbruk, jakt og fiske Bygg og anlegg Elektrisitet-, gass- og vannforsyning Finans, forsikring, eiendom og konsulenttjenester Industri Olje og gass Offentlig tjenesteyting Transport og logistikk Handel og service 21
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