Offshore vind - markedet og leverandørene

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1 Offshore vind - markedet og leverandørene

2 Stiftere: Myndigheter OED NFD UD Kombinasjon av INTSOK og INTPOW Uavhengig non-profit stiftelse 250 partnere/medlemmer Organisasjoner: Energi Norge Norsk Industri Norsk olje og gas Rederiforbundet LO Industri Statoil Statkraft

3 Visjon Norwegian Energy Partners skal styrke det langsiktige grunnlaget for norsk verdiskapning og sysselsetting i energirelaterte virksomheter ved å tilrettelegge for fokusert internasjonal forretningsutvikling.

4 Hvordan? Kartlegger kompetanse, teknologi og konkurransekraft hos leverandørbedriftene i Norge og kobler det med kundenes behov internasjonalt. Bidrar til å øke konkurransekraften og redusere risikoen i internasjonale aktiviteter.

6 Havvind....det er vel alt for dyrt? Kilde: Wind Power Monthly

7 Cost of energy /MWh) Det går overraskende raskt....nå uten subsidier! ?? Subsidy free? '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 Date of first operation Offshore wind (Q1 2017) Offshore wind (Q3 2015) CCGT (BEIS Nov 2016) NNG (UK) - Mainstream EA1 (UK) - Iberdrola Horns Rev 3 (DK) - Vattenfall Borssele 1&2 (NL) - DONG Vesterhav (DK) - Vattenfall Kriegers Flak (DK) - Vattenfall Borssele 3&4 (NL) - Shell consortium

8 Source: BVG Associates Er det noe for oss? 1. Project management 2. Array cables 3. Substation structures 4. Turbine foundations 5. Secondary steelwork 6. Cable installation 7. Installation equipment 8. Installation support services 9. Operations, maintenance & inspection services

9 Offshore vind har vokst fra en liten base Installasjoner i MW i Europa, årlig og kumulativt Kilde: Wind Europe

10 ..med 180 mrd NOK investert i 2016 Kumulativ installert effekt..fremdeles en ung industri Kilde: MAKE Consulting, for Eksportkreditt Norge AS, INTPOW og Greater Stavanger

11 som er ventet å fortsette å vokse. (GW) < e +16.1% 18e 19e 20e North America China Asia Pacific (Excl. China) UK Germany Denmark Netherlands Belgium France Finland Ireland Sweden Norway Portugal Kilde: MAKE Consulting, for Eksportkreditt Norge AS, INTPOW og Greater Stavanger

12 Noen markeder er dominerende...

13 ..og store kraftselskap dominerer på eiersiden.

14 Wind farm design 0.1% Surveys 0.3% Project other 1.6% Turbine assembly 1% Source: BVG Associates Over 70% av LCOE (uten finanskost) er knyttet til BOP og O&M. Major service 7% Operation, maintenance and minor service 20% OMS other 12% Operation, maintenance and service 39% Installation and commissioning 14% Development and project management 2% Blades 7% Wind turbine supply 26% Balance of plant 19% 7% Castings and forgings 2% Drive train 8% Substations Tower 4% Turbine other 4% Subsea export cables 2% 1% Subsea array cables Installation other 3% Subsea cable installation 4% Foundation installation 4.5% Foundations 8% Source: BVG Associates Turbine installation 2% Installation ports 0.5% Balance of plant other 1%

15 Drift og vedlikehold blir stadig viktigere Investeringer (CAPEX) og drift & vedlikehold (OPEX), Europa 2010 to 2020e Kilde: MAKE Consulting, for Eksportkreditt Norge AS, INTPOW og Greater Stavanger

16 Turbine supply Turbine installation Founda-tion supply Foundation installation Array cable supply Array cable installation Array cable vessel provider Export cable supply Export cable installation Export cable vessel provider Substation topside Substation topside installation Substation foundation Substation foundation installation Historisk er vi synlige.. 100% 80% 9% 3% 2% 28% 21% 37% 19% 4% 10% 3% 2% 60% 40% 20% 100% 91% 97% 98% 72% 79% 63% 81% 96% 90% 100% 100% 97% 98% 0% Norwegian Non-Norwegian Andeler 2010 til Kilde: MAKE Consulting, for Eksportkreditt Norge AS, INTPOW og Greater Stavanger

17 Turbine supply Turbine installation Founda-tion supply Foundation installation Array cable supply Array cable installation Array cable vessel provider Export cable supply Export cable installation Export cable vessel provider Substation topside Substation topside installation Substation foundation Substation foundation installation og ordreboken i noe grad.. 100% 80% 60% 40% 100% 4% 18% 23% 74% 73% 62% 54% 73% 15% 9% 36% 78% 20% 67% 10% 75% 92% 71% 92% 82% 20% 0% 9% 26% 27% 33% 23% 49% 29% 13% 13% 14% 8% 8% 18% Norwegian Non-Norwegian No contract awarded Kilde: MAKE Consulting, for Eksportkreditt Norge AS, INTPOW og Greater Stavanger

18 Hva med flytende vind? Hywind Scotland - 30 MW - 5x6 MW Siemens turbines on spar substructire - Installation and commissioning in 2017

15 demonstrasjonsanlegg annonsert 2009: Hywind

semi-sub (and first US project) 2013: Compact

2013: Fukushima floating substation 1 st

semisub 1 st 7MW 2016: 4 Demonstration sites

Kinkardine and one other floating in Scotland

19 15 demonstrasjonsanlegg annonsert 2009: Hywind demo 1 st spar buoy 2011: WindFloat demo 1 st semi-sub 2012: Kabashima/Goto Spar 1 st concrete/steel 2012: VolturnUS 1 st concrete semi-sub (and first US project) 2013: Compact Semi 1 st of the Fukushima demonstration unit 2013: Fukushima floating substation 1 st floating substation 2015: Fukushima floating semisub 1 st 7MW 2016: 4 Demonstration sites in France 24 MW each various concepts 2017: Kinkardine and one other floating in Scotland First commercial projects announced UK / Ireland / Hawaii / Taiwan

20 flere land posisjonerer sine leverandører! USA Scotland France Japan Portugal China?

21 Våre styrker!

25 24-25 January - Scottish OW Supply Chain Event 26. January - Floating Offshore Wind - Oslo March - FOWT Marseille March - Seanergy - LeHavre 26. April - Offshore Wind Supply Chain Conference Oslo 8-11 May - German Tour Hamburg, Bremerhaven 6-8 June - Offshore Wind Energy Europe London 9-10 October - Offshore Energy Amsterdam October - China Windpower & Taiwan Beijing, Taipei October - AWEA Offshore Wind New York

26 Jon Dugstad Director Wind &

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