Muligheter for norsk industri i offshore vind

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1 Muligheter for norsk industri i offshore vind Viken Teknologiklynge 4.0 Moss 13. Juni 2018 David S. Ottesen Director Wind

2 Vi skal ikke gi opp olje og gass men...anvende vår ekspertise fra offshore og maritim virksomhet for å skape verdier i offshore vind!

3 Voksende interesse for offshore vind i Norge 150 av 250 medlemmer av Norwegian Energy Partners er interessert i offshore vind Identifisert ytterligere 100 bedrifter med interesse for offshore vind mange fra maritim industri.

4 Kostnadene synker raskere enn tidligere forventet - siste prosjekter bygges uten subsidier Over 450 milliarder forventes investert i offshore vind over de neste 10 årene Offshore vind kan utgjøre 25% av kraftproduksjon i Europa i 2030 til en pris av /Mwh Globalt marked Europa, Kina, USA, India ++ Flytende offshore vind vil muliggjøre enorm fornybar kraftutbygging nær store forbrukere (byer/industri)

5 Et marked i vekst.. 17,4 GW globalt (88% i Europa) 4200 turbiner EUR 70 mrd investeringer Kilde: Wind Europe Installasjoner (MW i Europa, årlig og kumulativt)

En travel fremtid 15,300 turbiner vil bli installert perioden 2018-2027 som resulterer i en global

6 En travel fremtid 15,300 turbiner vil bli installert perioden som resulterer i en global energikapasitet I underkant av 113 GW i 2027 Total Capex i perioden omkring 464 mrd og Opex omkring 80 mrd..

7 Fallende pris Walney Extension Race Bank East Anglia Borkum Riffgrund 2 Horns Rev III Borssele I&II Kriegers Flak Borssele III & IV Hornsea 2 Cluster 1 Serie Sources: BEIS, DONG Energy, Bundesnetzagentur, NEV, Energinet.dk, Danish Energy Agency

8 gjør havvind konkurransedyktig! Kilde: Wind Power Monthly/BEIS

Electricity supplied (TWh) Annual installed capacity (MW) Global market status In some markets, well

100,000 Source: BVG Associates 10,000 300 1,000 200 100 100 0 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20

globally 4% of O&G in 2013 will be 30% in 2022 Offshore wind a safe asset class in Europe Wind generated

5%) 10 1 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Offshore wind Onshore wind Onshore wind (offset by 18 years) Oil

9 Electricity supplied (TWh) Annual installed capacity (MW) Global market status In some markets, well underway; others hardly started Source: BVG Associates Following in the footsteps of onshore wind 100,000 Source: BVG Associates 10, , '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 '26 '28 '30 Nuclear Gas Coal Onshore wind and solar Offshore wind Other Offshore wind CAPEX globally 4% of O&G in 2013 will be 30% in 2022 Offshore wind a safe asset class in Europe Wind generated 5% of global electricity last year (offshore wind <0.5%) Offshore wind Onshore wind Onshore wind (offset by 18 years) Oil and Gas players transitioning EMEA APAC AMER Electricity utilities transitioned Operating (GW) Installation (GW) Average in 2020 s (GW)

Resource potential (TWh/yr) means economic to build as much

Economic resource potential (upside) 2,000 Economic resource

10 Resource potential (TWh/yr) means economic to build as much offshore wind in N. Europe as the electricity system can sustain Powerhouse of northern Europe 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Economic resource potential (upside) 2,000 Economic resource potential (baseline) LCOE ( /MWh) Baseline Upside Source: BVG Associates for WindEurope

11 Etterspørsel etter Norsk ekspertise

12 Større investeringer i havvind enn i noen annen fornybar teknologi i Europa!

13 Dominert av noen få land..

14 ..og noen store aktører!

Future volumes and key markets 30% EMEA,

Japan / Vietnam Indonesia / Korea US east

15 Future volumes and key markets 30% EMEA, 40% APAC 30% AMER Source: BVG Associates / GeoSE 2016 (already ahead of curve) Key markets: Northern Europe China Taiwan / Japan / Vietnam Indonesia / Korea US east & west coasts Argentina / Brazil / Mexico India

strong capacity factors - close to load centers - 20+ miles offshore -

16 US Offshore Wind Market North East business case unleashes US industry BUSINESS CASE to launch: - energy price peaks - transmission advantage - strong capacity factors - close to load centers miles offshore - State energy policy - energy independence - US job creation - European learning curve

17 US Offshore Wind Market Wave #1 to enable waves #2 and #3 #3 #1 #2

18 Floating is already large market Close to 400 MW of Demos and 7 GW of Large Scale Projects Current MW Installed: 20MW Current Floating Wind Farms (Announced) under Development Demo Projects Large Scale US 12 MW > 2 GW in Hawaii and CA Europe Japan France, MW UK, 80 MW Portugal, 25 MW Up to 100 MW France, 3.5 GW with commercial tenders starting to be prepared TBD (Target 8GW by 2030, with mostly floating) Taiwan/Korea Up to 30 MW 1.5 GW Source: Principle Power

19 >300 MW of Demos and approx. 7 GW of Large Projects in Dev worldwide 5 Source: Principle Power

20 ..med en First mover advantage i flytende vind! 30% Norsk innhold i Hywind Skotland - Engineering av understell og tårn og system - Innkjøpstjenester - Transport av understell - Forberedelse til sammenstilling av turbin med understell og generatorer - Tauing, forankring, drift - Statisk og dynamiske kabler og tilbehør - Sikkerhetstjenester, verifikasjon og garantiundersøkelser

Turbines Biggest rotating machines on earth getting bigger Evolution and revolution

diameter (m) Rating (MW) 80-130 126-167 200-250 2-4 5-9.

Annual output (MWh/turbine) 3x 7x Benefits of bigger turbines Consequences

and operating costs Higher mean wind speeds New technology at component level New

21 Turbines Biggest rotating machines on earth getting bigger Evolution and revolution Max. / min Rotor diameter Generation 1 (marinised) Generation 2 Generation 3 Rotor diameter (m) Rating (MW) Drive train Geared (H) Geared (H, M) Direct drive Geared (M) Direct drive Annual output (MWh/turbine) 3x 7x Benefits of bigger turbines Consequences Innovation from outside wind Fewer turbines per GW Lower foundation, installation and operating costs Higher mean wind speeds New technology at component level New manufacturing / installation solutions Different foundation types Huge investment across SC Big data, artificial intelligence IoT

Foundations and installation Technology diversification before harmonisation Market dominated by monopiles (85% share) Low /T but high T; low installation cost

PISA JIP Larger piling tooling Innovations like bolted transition pieces instead of grouted Future share limited by structural design inefficiency and system

Jackets in deeper water / for larger turbines Not had volumes to drive optimisation of production Much complex welding and fatigue loads uncomfortable

telescopic tower Way to reach Holy grail no big installation vessels and much reduced offshore labour Floating on its way Limited to deep water or not?

22 Foundations and installation Technology diversification before harmonisation Market dominated by monopiles (85% share) Low /T but high T; low installation cost Larger market share than industry anticipated Design optimisation eg. PISA JIP Larger piling tooling Innovations like bolted transition pieces instead of grouted Future share limited by structural design inefficiency and system dynamics? Jackets in deeper water / for larger turbines Not had volumes to drive optimisation of production Much complex welding and fatigue loads uncomfortable Innovations - suction bucket seabed connection, numbers of legs Gravity bases on journey to FOAS Blyth demonstrator Elisa Elican 5MW demonstrator with telescopic tower Way to reach Holy grail no big installation vessels and much reduced offshore labour Floating on its way Limited to deep water or not? Heroic optimisation and huge vessels Drivers Vessel costs halved recently Waiting on weather 30% Foundations Need lots of deck space Don t need jack-ups Future - won t use jack-ups Handling in higher winds More controlled piling (inc. vibro, blue) Turbines Need jack-ups (for now) Focus on Largest number of turbines on board Wave and wind speed limits Cables Room for innovation in laying, burial, pull-in and termination

Innovation, innovation, innovation Electrical Moving from 33 to 66kV AC array infrastructure G3 turbines will need

and cost of offshore substations Eventually, HVDC inter-regional super-grids Operations PTVs > Service operation

condition-based maintenance Wind farm control Much better use of data Supply chain Pipelines help reduce cost(1

developers to all have pipelines Experienced players multi-contracting Less experienced chose smaller number of EPCI

shortening warranties Creativity driven by direct competition - auctions Consolidation in turbine supply (1-2GW / yr)

23 Innovation, innovation, innovation Electrical Moving from 33 to 66kV AC array infrastructure G3 turbines will need higher voltage / low freq / DC solutions Extending distance range of HVAC export infrastructure Reducing complexity and cost of offshore substations Eventually, HVDC inter-regional super-grids Operations PTVs > Service operation vessels Far-shore islands / permanent offshore accommodation solutions Autonomous drones and UVs Proper condition-based maintenance Wind farm control Much better use of data Supply chain Pipelines help reduce cost(1 project / yr): High utilisation and volume for depreciation Maximise learning by doing Enable investment Too many developers to all have pipelines Experienced players multi-contracting Less experienced chose smaller number of EPCI packages Existing players looking at new markets towards global presence Owners bringing operations in-house shortening warranties Creativity driven by direct competition - auctions Consolidation in turbine supply (1-2GW / yr) MVOW, Siemens GE, Senvion Chinese not active outside China Consolidation elsewhere growing pains Innovation enabling new entrants often O&G Big buying from big

24 Fra IPF konferanse i Princeton i april 2018

25 ..skaper en norsk havvindindustri! Norsk markedsandel fra 5 til 10% i 2030 Internasjonal omsetning 3-doblet neste 10 år Omsetning nærmer seg 50 milliarder i 2030

26 Internasjonale aktiviteter 2018 Scottish OW Supply Chain Event og Kinkerdyne supplier event 27 januar Taiwan/China 31 march - april FOWT Marseille april US Offshore Wind 7-8 Juni Global Offshore Wind Manchester juni Wind Energy Hamburg September China Offshore Wind Summit August Danmark cooperation meeting - 3 kvartal AWEA Offshore Wind Oct Offshore Energy October Amsterdam International Offshore Wind Technology Los Angeles November

david.ottesen@norwep.com Mulighetene er enorme.

27 Mulighetene er enorme..bare begrenset av vår evne og vilje til å utnytte dem!

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