Strategic workforce planning in Norway. Hilde Christiansen & Johanne Kalsheim November 2015

Transkript

1 Strategic workforce planning in Norway Hilde Christiansen & Johanne Kalsheim November 2015

2 2 1 INTRODUCTION WORKFORCE MODEL 2 3 USE OF MODEL NEXT STEPS 4

3 3 A scenario tool for strategic workforce planning has been developed as a part of the response to the new national healthcare and hospital plan in Norway The scenario tool is used to analyze the access to ( supply ), and need for ( demand ), healthcare professionals towards 2030 The workforce model can be used at a strategic level, either for preparing local development plans, or as a part of the regional strategy processes The workforce model can provide decision support in planning and development of the patient s health care

4 4 The workforce model is a scenario tool based on estimations of future supply and demand for healthcare professionals DEMAND PROJECTION OF FUTURE COMPETENCY NEED WORKFORCE MODEL Demographics Forecasting of future level of activity Activity growth competency needed Experts Studies Definition and quantification of scenarios* Modifying factors per scenario Estimated competency gap Competency gap - scenarios SUPPLY PROJECTION OF FUTURE COMPETENCY HELD HR-data Data from the Physicians Employment Register (Legestillingsregisteret) competency held *A scenario consists of one or more modifying factors

5 5 Demand is the forecasted level of activity based on demographic scenarios by Statistics Norway DEMAND PROJECTION OF FUTURE COMPETENCY NEED Demographics Forecasting of future level of activity Activity growth competency needed *A scenario consists of one or more modifying factors

6 6 Supply is estimated based on HR-data and data from the Physicians Employment Register (Legestillingsregisteret) DEMAND PROJECTION OF FUTURE COMPETENCY NEED Demographics Forecasting of future level of activity Activity growth competency needed SUPPLY PROJECTION OF FUTURE COMPETENCY HELD HR-data Data from the Physicians Employment Register (Legestillingsregisteret) competency held *A scenario consists of one or more modifying factors

7 7 The difference between demand and supply constitutes the competency gap DEMAND PROJECTION OF FUTURE COMPETENCY NEED NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION MODEL Demographics Forecasting of future level of activity Activity growth competency needed Estimated competency gap Competency gap - scenarios SUPPLY PROJECTION OF FUTURE COMPETENCY HELD HR-data Data from the Physicians Employment Register (Legestillingsregisteret) competency held *A scenario consists of one or more modifying factors

8 8 Different factors affects supply and/or demand for healthcare professionals DEMAND PROJECTION OF FUTURE COMPETENCY NEED NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION MODEL Demographics Forecasting of future level of activity Activity growth competency needed Experts Studies Definition and quantification of scenarios* Modifying factors per scenario Estimated competency gap Competency gap - scenarios SUPPLY PROJECTION OF FUTURE COMPETENCY HELD HR-data Data from the Physicians Employment Register (Legestillingsregisteret) competency held *A scenario consists of one or more modifying factors

9 9 TOTAL KOMPETANSEBEHOV PER SCENARIO (NETTO MÅNEDSVERK) Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 One example is the calculation of future need and availability for specialist nurses in one of the healthcare regions in Norway TOTAL KOMPETANSEBEHOV PER SCENARIO (NETTO MÅNEDSVERK) Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario GAP PER SCENARIO (NETTO MÅNEDSVERK) Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario TOTAL KOMPETANSEBEHOLDNING PER SCENARIO (NETTO MÅNEDSVERK) Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario

10 The workforce model can also be used to determine the competence need and availability of several types of specialist doctors, such as pathology in the public healthcare sector 10

11 11 The model has been developed as a scenario tool to illustrate the scope of potential outcomes for the future The scenarios in a scenario analysis will have low possibilities for occurrence. However, combined the different scenarios will constitute a scope of possible future outcomes Scenarios are used to highlight which problems and questions decision makers must be aware of, and the consequences different decisions can get The scenarios will create value when management is involved in creating the scenarios, and when there is a willingness to understand the uncertainties and the forces behind the analysis (Wack, 1985) Fig.1: Scenario funnel based on 3 scenarios Source: Albers & Broux (1999), modified. Oljedirektoratet, 2011 ( K Stavem, 2000, Tidsskrift for den norske legeforening, ( Albers & Broux,1999, Zukunftswerkstatt und Szenariotechnik. Ein Methodenbuch für Schule und Hochschule. Beltz Wack P. Scenarios: unchartered waters ahead. Harvard Business Review 1985; September-October:

12 12 If we define some scenarios for one of the healthcare regions in Norway... Factor «Trend» (Scenario 0) «Best» (Scenario 1) «Worst» (Scenario 2) The new patient role Smart organization Personnel MMMM demographic growth scenario MMMM demographic growth scenario No change from the current situation The new patient role leads to a 3% reduction in policlinic controls within 2030 Better collaboration between GP and specialists leads to GPs taking over 15% of policlinic activities within 2030 External turnover for nurses decreases to 8% Leave of absence is reduced to 4,5% MMMH demographic growth scenario MMMH demographic growth scenario External turnover for nurses increases by 5% Leave of absence increases by 4,5%

13 we see that the number of nurses needed in 2030 is ranging from net month FTEs 13

14 14 we see that the number of nurses available in 2030 is ranging from 40 to 550 net month FTEs if we do not recruit > KOMPETANSEBEHOLDNING YRKESGRUPPER > KOMPETANSEBEHOLDNING LEGESPESIALISTER > KOMPETANSEBEHOV YRKESGRUPPER > KOMPETANSEBEHOV LEGESPESIALISTER > INFORMASJON KOMPETANSEBEHOLDNING YRKESGRUPPER (NETTO MÅNEDSVERK) > KOMPETANSEGAP YRKESGRUPPER > KOMPETANSEGAP LEGESPESIALISTER PARAMETER KOMPETANSEBEHOLDNING BASISÅR PER SCENARIO (NETTO MÅNEDSVERK) SAMMENSETNING KOMPETANSEBEHOLDNING (NETTO MÅNEDSVERK) MÅLTALL Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Antall ansatte Brutto månedsverk utbetalt Nyansattbeholdning Ansattbeholdning Netto månedsverk utbetalt TJENESTELEVERANDØR Offentlige helseforetak HELSEFORETAK Helse Nord RHF Helse Vest RHF Helse Sør-Øst RHF Lovisenberg Diakonale S NYANSATTE I KOMPETANSEBEHOLDNING PER SCENARIO (NETTO MÅNEDSVERK) Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario STILLING (NIVÅ 1) 5 Sykepleiere TOTAL KOMPETANSEBEHOLDNING PER SCENARIO (NETTO MÅNEDSVERK) STILLING (NIVÅ 2) Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 10a Ambulansepersonell 1a Toppleder 1c Andre ledere 11a Forskning 1b Mellomleder 1d Merkantile stillinger e Tillitsvalgte og verne... 2b Tannleger 2a V ernepleier 2c Logoped FERDIG UTDANNEDE LEGESPESIALISTER PER SCENARIO (NETTO MÅNEDSVERK) d Sosionom 2e Pedagog 2f Miljøarbeider 2g Audiograf h Fysioterapeut 2i Ergoterapeut 2j Miljøterapeut 2k Helsesekretær l Andre pasientrettede... 3a Overleger 3b LIS-leger 3c Turnusleger 3d Legespesialister 4b Psykolog 5a Spesialsykepleiere 5c Jordmor 7a Bioingeniør 7c Radiograf 8a Farmasøyt 4a Psykologspesialist 4c Sjefpsykolog 5b Sykepleier 6a Helsefagarbeider/hje... 7b Laboratoriepersonell 7d Stråleterapeut 8b Apotekteknikker

15 15 Scenario analyzes can be developed through a process where the scenarios are defined and quantified using the scenario tool Quantitative Qualitative Identify and describe forces or trends underlying future changes Cluster the forces and possible developments in scenarios that are internally consistent Identify and quantify parameters per scenario in the workforce model Evaluate the scenarios in the workforce model Develop strategies and actions

16 16 Forces and trends underlying future changes has been defined in the response to the new healthcare and hospital plan Quantitative Qualitative Identify and describe forces or trends underlying future changes Cluster the forces and possible developments in scenarios that are internally consistent Identify and quantify parameters per scenario in the workforce model Evaluate the scenarios in the workforce model Develop strategies and actions However, to create value we must continue to explore forces and trends defined in the report to develop scenarios nationally, regionally and locally

17 17 1 INTRODUCTION WORKFORCE MODEL 2 3 USE OF MODEL NEXT STEPS 4