Naturgasshydrater i et samfunnsmessig perspektiv

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1 Naturgasshydrater i et samfunnsmessig perspektiv Temamøte: Naturgasshydrater i energi-, industri, - klima- og samfunnsperspektiv Professor Oluf Langhelle

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3 Utgangspunktet Energipotensialet i verdens hydratforekomster er estimert til å være dobbelt så stort som verdens samlede kull-, olje- og gassforekomster. En lovende produksjonsmetode: injeksjon av karbondioksid (CO2). Siden CO2-hydrat er termodynamisk mer stabilt enn metanhydrat vil en slik injeksjon initiere en direkte utveksling mellom metan og karbondioksid uten å smelte hydrat i stor skala. Denne metoden er meget fordelaktig ved at en injiserer og lagrer drivhusgass og produserer naturgass. Metoden kan i så måte omtales som klimanøytral. Det finnes i dag ingen kommersiell produksjonsmetode for å utnytte denne ressursen.

4 Den store debatten om fremtiden dette inngår i. Tre konkurrerende perspektiver: Vision 1: Fossil fuel dependency and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), klimanøytral gasshydratproduksjon Vision 2: The renewable energy future Vision 3: Peak oil Det store spørsmålet: Hvordan vil energimiksen være i 2050?

5 Scenarios for the future Carbon-constrained scenarios for stabilization of emissions or atmospheric concentration depict trade-offs between renewables, nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) from coal, most with high energy efficiency. Scenario outcomes differ depending on degree of future policy action, fuel prices, carbon prices, technology cost reductions, and aggregate energy demand, with resource constraints mainly for biomass and biofuels scenarios are not predictions. Attempts to forecast energy futures have historically underestimated the importance of surprise and uncertainties (Martinot et al. 2009).

6 Vision 1: Fossil fuel domination (with or without CCS) Oil will remain the world s main source of energy for many years to come, even under the most optimistic of assumptions about the development of alternative technology (Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka, IEA, 12 November 2008, WEO, 2008: 37) OLF/OED/Ministry of oil and gas: The world, especially developing countries, need more energy => i.e. oil and gas, the alternative to opening the Barents Sea is coal

7 Growth in demand

8 Vision 2: The renewable energy future More renewable energy than conventional power capacity was added in both the European Union and United States for the first time ever. China s total wind power capacity doubled in 2008 for the fourth year running (REN21: Press release, Paris, 13 May 2009)

9 The critique of IEA Source: Rechsteiner, 2008, EnergyWatchGroup.

10 GreenPeace/Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) 2010: What has changed is the IEA s Reference Scenario. In 2006, the Reference scenario projected 231 GW for 2020 now that s up to 415 GW; and for 2030, the Reference scenario projected 415 GW now that s up to 573GW. Of course, we still think those numbers are very low Global Wind Energy Outlook 2010

11 IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy 2011 A significant increase in the deployment of RE by 2030, 2050 and beyond is indicated in the majority of the 164 scenarios reviewed in this Special Report... The scenarios with the highest RE shares reach approximately 43% in 2030 and 77% in [10.2, 10.3]

12 IPCC 2011

13 The renewable revolution?

14 Peak oil The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. In this regard, the ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. "Life After the oil crash" 2007/

15 Hva så med gass?

16 WEO 2011: Golden prospects for natural gas There is much less uncertainty over the outlook for natural gas: factors both on the supply and demand sides point to a bright future, even a golden age, for natural gas. Our Outlook reinforces the main conclusions of a WEO special report released in June 2011: gas consumption rises in all three scenarios, underlining how gas does well under a wide range of future policy directions.

17 Gas saves the global environment Bidrar til Europas klimamål Eksport av norsk gass er sentralt i et miljøperspektiv med tanke på å redusere bruken av kullkraft i Europa. Kullkraft har mer enn dobbelt så høyt utslipp som gass. Under forutsetningen at ca. 75 prosent av gassen Norge eksporterer erstatter kull i kraftgenerering, vil dagens leveranser kunne medføre årlige unngåtte utslipp fra kullkraftverk på om lag millioner tonn CO 2. Det tilsvarer ca. fem ganger Norges totale årlige utslipp. ( o1/utslipp-til-luft/)

18 Gas has no future

19 Norway will not be a gas nation

20 Falling demand

21 Norway: UK exports if the UK succeeds in its climate policies (UK Future Energy Scenarios, NationalGrid, 2012:78)

22 Too much fossil fuels? Who should close the tap for which fosssil fuels? (Ellen Hambro, Stavanger Aftenblad, 2 october 2011) /may/06/carbon-emissions

23 Hva skjer uten en pris på CO2?

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25 Er fornybart dyrt?

26 What more is driving the EU Competitiveness The EU is becoming increasingly exposed to the effects of price volatility and price rises on international energy markets and the consequences of the progressive concentration of hydrocarbons reserves in few hands. The potential effects are significant: if, for example, the oil price rose to 100 $/barrel in 2030 [sic!], the EU-27 energy total import bill would increase by around 170 billion, an annual increase of 350 for every EU citizen. Very little of this wealth transfer would result in additional jobs in the EU. Source: COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 15 January 2007, 5282/07.

27 Konklusjoner Ulike oppfatninger om hva energimiksen vil være i 2050 Scenarioer er iboende «politiske»: De handler om å påvirke politiske beslutninger i dag Klimanøytral produksjon av gasshydrater virker lovende - i likhet med CCS. Men: «Always over the horizon»? Fremtiden for gass er mer usikker en mange vil ha det til i en «Carbon constrained World» Hva med gass om CCS på kullkraft realiseres? Gass et «Transition Fuel», men hvor lenge? Gassprodusenter (og Norge) har egeninteresse av at denne overgangen tar så lang tid som mulig langt utover 2050