Naturdata Nordområdene Gerhard Ersdal Petroleumstilsynet
Generelt Petroleumstilsynet deltar i arbeidet med å utvikle NORSOK N-003, som blant annet inkluderer informasjon om værdata og naturdata for nordområdene De fleste kartene i denne presentasjonen er utviklet av / for komitéen for denne standarden. Komitéen består av 2 professorer fra NTNU, 2 professorer fra UiS, 1 forsker fra Marintek, og 4 representanter fra industrien (DNV, Statoil). I tillegg er det tatt inn ekstern ekspertise på flere områder, blant annet i forbindelse med nordområdene Kartene er foreløpig ikke begrenset til Norske områder. Det vil de bli. Vi skal ikke gi krav for andre lands områder.
Bakgrunnsdata - Værdata As stated in NORSOK N-003: The NORA10 hindcast model covers the period 1958 2011. The model contains hindcast data on wind, waves and meteorological parameters (air temperature, humidity, air pressure and precipitation) in 3 hourly intervals. The model has been extensively validated versus measurements and shows very good skill.
Bakgrunnsdata - isutbredelse As stated in NORSOK N-003: Sea-ice charts for the period 1967 to 2012 have been analysed. Charts for the period 1967-2002 are gathered from the ACSYS Historical Ice Chart Archive (1553-2002). Charts for the period January 2003 October 2012 have been received from Istjenesten (Ice Service) at met.no, Tromsø.
Limits of sea ice extent in the western Barents Sea with annual probability of exceedance of 10-1, 10-2 and 10-4.
Limit for collision with icebergs with a probability of exceedance of 10-2 (solid line) and 10-4 (dotted line).
Ptils vurdering av N-003 Solid og grundig arbeid ligger bak disse vurderingene av naturforhold. God basis for sikker utforming av innretningene. Noen utfordringer gjenstår, spesielt i forhold til hvordan disse naturdataene vil påvirke utforming av innretninger og operasjoner.
Mulige forenklede kart for vinterisering Basert på arbeidet i NORSOK N-003 har Ptil utformet følgende forenklede områdekart til bruk for vinterisering og andre formål hvor grovere inndeling av nordområdene er nødvendige.
Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene
Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene A1: A1 (work in progress) WCI should be expected to exceed 1600 minimum 1 day annually. WCI = 1900 will occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Temperatures of down to -20 0 C will occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Moderate icing may occur minimum 1 day annually. Heavy icing may occur 1 day every 10 th year. Snow of 0.5 kpa with an annual probability of 10-2 may occur. Polar lows may occur.
Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene A1: A2 (work in progress) WCI should be expected to exceed 1600 minimum 3 days annually. WCI of 2100 may occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Sea ice may occur with an annual probability of 10-4. Temperatures of down to -20 0 C will occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Moderate icing may occur minimum 1 day annually. Heavy icing may occur 1 day every 10 th year. Snow of 0.5 kpa with an annual probability of 10-2 may occur. Polar lows may occur.
Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene A1: B1(work in progress) WCI should be expected to exceed 1600 up to a total of 25 days annually. WCI of 2500 may occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Sea ice may occur with an annual probability of 10-4. Iceberg collisions may occur with an annual probability of 10-4. Temperatures of down to -30 0 C will occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Heavy icing should be expected to occur 5 days annually, moderate icing should be expected to occur up to 30 days annually. Snow of 0.7 kpa with an annual probability of 10-2 may occur. Polar lows may occur.
Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene A1: B2 (work in progress) WCI should be expected to exceed 1600 minimum 30 days annually. WCI of 2500 may occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Sea ice will occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Iceberg collisions may occur with an annual probability of 10-4. Temperatures of down to -30 0 C will occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Heavy icing should be expected to occur 5 days annually, moderate icing should be expected to occur up to 30 days annually. Snow of 0.7 kpa with an annual probability of 10-2 may occur. Polar lows may occur.
Klima og vinteriseringsbehov i Nordområdene A1: C (work in progress) WCI should be expected to exceed 1600 up to a total of 50 days annually. WCI of 2900 may occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Sea ice will occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Iceberg collisions may occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Temperatures of down to -40 0 C will occur with an annual probability of 10-2. Heavy icing should be expected to occur 25 days annually, moderate icing should be expected to occur up to 50 days annually. Snow of 1.0 kpa with an annual probability of 10-2 may occur. Polar lows may occur.
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