Morgenrapport, onsdag, 25. april 2012

Transkript

1 Morgenrapport, onsdag, 25. april 2012 Den greske sentralbanken kutter sin prognose for gresk vekst Amerikansk konsumenttilliten litt tilbake i april, som ventet I USA ventes det at ordre av varige goder faller litt tilbake i mars, trukket ned av flyordre Nye prognoser fra FOMC etter rentemøtet kan gi signaler om amerikansk pengepolitikken ESBs utlånsundersøkelse for 1.kv ventes å vise til strammer kredittpraksis fra bankene NBs utlånsundersøkelse ventes å vise til strammere kredittpraksis, men økt låneetterspørsel Internasjonalt Den greske sentralbanken sa i går at de nå venter at den greske økonomien skal falle med 5% i år. Sentralbankens anslag for veksten i år er dermed revidert ned med 0,5 prosentpoeng bare siden mars. Dermed ligger det an til å bli enda vanskeligere for Hellas å få på plass de budsjettkuttene som landet har bundet seg til i gjeldsavtalen med EU og IMF. Den greske sentralbanksjefen advarte i går om at Hellas medlemskap i eurosamarbeidet kan settes på spill dersom utfallet av valget 6. mai fører til tvil rundt myndighetenes vilje og evne til å gjennomføre de avtalte innstrammingstiltakene. Og etter valget følger flere skjær i sjøen for Hellas. Landet må i henhold til gjeldsavtalen gjennom kvartalsvise revideringer av sine budsjetter, planer og gjennomføringsevne. Den første revisjonen skal etter planen gjennomføres i slutten av mai. Vi antar at denne første revisjonen kan gå fint, ettersom det har gått så lite tid siden avtalen kom på plass. Vi ser imidlertid stor sannsynlighet for at revisjonen i slutten av august vil vise til at Hellas ikke er i stand til gjennomføre sine forpliktelser. I så fall kan Hellas medlemskap i eurosamarbeidet igjen bli satt på prøve. Konsumenttilliten i USA falt svakt i april, omtrent som ventet. Conference Bord-indeksen falt til 69,2 i april, ned fra nedreviderte 69,5 måneden tidligere. Det var på forhånd ventet at indeksen skulle komme inn på 69,5. Indeksen som måler husholdningenes syn på nåsituasjonen steg til 51,4, det høyeste nivået siden september 2008, men indeksen som måler forventningene for de nærmeste 6 månedene falt til 81,1, ned fra 82,5 måneden før. Rapporten fra Conference Board viste at amerikanske husholdninger strammet inn sine kjøpsplaner for biler, boliger og ferier. Det er muligens den noe saktere innhentingen i det amerikanske boligmarkedet som har fått husholdningene til å bli litt mer forsiktige i april. Videre viste tall fra det amerikanske boligmarkedet i går at huspriser i 20 byer, målt ved Case/Shiller-indeksen falt mindre enn på lenge og ser nå ut til å stabilisere seg. Dessuten steg salget av nye boliger mer enn ventet i mars. Antallet nye boliger solgt i mars ble på , ned fra oppreviderte i februar, som også er det høyeste antallet solgte boliger på to år. Veksten i amerikansk industriproduksjon har tiltatt siden juni i fjor, men den gode utviklingen kan nå se ut til å ha stoppet litt opp (se figur). I dag få vi tall som viser nye ordre av varige goder i mars. Ordrene steg mindre enn ventet i februar, og for mars venter man et fall i ordrene. En av årsakene antas å være et fall i flyordre. Konsensus venter et fall i nye ordre av varige goder på 1,5% i mars, ned fra en vekst på 2,4% i februar. Dersom konsensusestimatet slår til, vil i så fall mye av veksten i denne serien i februar bli radert og gjøre at utviklingen i ordre på nivå siden årsskiftet er flat til negativ. Trenden i seriene for ordre av varige goder og faktisk industriproduksjon samvarierer i stor grad, og varige goder leder utviklingen i faktisk industriproduksjon. ESB publiserer i dag sin kvartalsvise utlånsundersøkelse blant europeiske banker. I januar viste denne undersøkelsen at europeiske banker strammet inn kredittpraksisen kraftig i 4.kvartal, særlig overfor bedrifter, men også overfor husholdninger. For 1. kvartal i år ventet bankene at de ville stramme inn kredittpraksisen ytterligere, men i et saktere tempo enn før jul. Bankene forklarte innstrammingen med dårligere økonomiske utsikter og den vedvarende gjeldskrisen, som bidro til å svekke bankenes balanser. Bankene rapporterte også om fallende etterspørsel etter lån fra europeiske bedrifter og husholdninger i 4.kvartal, og ventet at denne utviklingen ville øke i styrke inn i Undersøkelsen som legges fram i dag vil vise om bankene har gjort som de antok, og strammet ytterligere inn i 1. kvartal. ESB har nå i to runder tilført de europeiske bankene billige lån, noe man kan anta har bidratt til at bankene har kunnet låne ut mer penger enn ellers. Men månedlig utlånsstatistikk fra ESB peker likevel i retning av fall i utlån til bedrifter og hus- For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

2 holdninger også i 1. kvartal. IMF advarte i forrige uke om at presset på europeiske banker for å bedre sine balanser kan føre til kraftig kutt i utlån de nærmeste årene. Det er en klar fare for at redusert utlånsvirksomhet fra eurosonens banker kan forverre resesjonen det ser ut til at regionen allerede er inne i. For øvrig innleder sentralbanksjef i ESB, Mario Draghi under en høring i Europaparlamentet i dag. Vi får også rentebeslutningen fra den pengepolitiske komiteen i den amerikanske sentralbanken (FOMC). Det er ventet at FOMC vil gjenta sin intensjon om å holde styringsrenten nær null fram til slutten av 2014, men ikke gi noen klare signaler om nye kvantitative lettelser. Sentralbanken vil også offentliggjøre FOMC-medlemmenes nye prognoser for vekst, inflasjon og arbeidsledighet og deres anbefalte bane for styringsrenten. Gitt fallet i arbeidsledigheten siden årsskiftet er det grunn til å vente at prognosene for arbeidsledigheten i slutten av 2012 blir justert noe ned. Sentralbanksjef Bernanke vil etter offentliggjøringen av prognosene holde en pressekonferanse. Norge Det har kun vært små bevegelser i kronen mot euro i løpet av natten. Intervallet har vært 7,5580-7,5650. Vi ser ikke for oss de store bevegelsene i krysset i dagens handel, trolig vil krysset handle innenfor 7,54-7,58. I dag presenteres Norges Banks utlånsundersøkelse for 1. kvartal, og vi venter å se en videre innstramming i kredittpraksis overfor husholdningene, slik bankene antydet i undersøkelsen for 4.kvartal. Utlånsundersøkelsen for 4.kvartal viste at bankene strammet inn kredittpraksisen overfor husholdninger og foretak, og ventet ytterligere innstramming overfor husholdninger, men uendret kredittpraksis for foretak i 1.kvartal. For 4.kvartal viste utlånsundersøkelsen at låneetterspørselen fra foretak falt mens låneetterspørselen fra husholdninger økte. Inn i 2012 ventet bankene uendret låneetterspørsel fra husholdningene, men redusert låneetterspørsel fra foretak. Men gitt tallene for kredittvekst de siste månedene, kan det tyde på at etterspørselen etter lån fra husholdningene har vært høyere enn bankene så for seg i 4.kvartal. Lave renter, god utvikling i arbeidsmarkedet og god inntektsvekst gjør antakelig at norske husholdninger ser forholdsvis lyst på utsiktene for egen økonomi, noe som også gjør at låneetterspørselen ser ut til å holde seg oppe. Ansvarlig for dagens morgenrapport: Kari Due-Andresen Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, , knmo01@handelsbanken.no Kari Due-Andresen, , kadu01@handelsbanken.no Ida Wolden Bache, , idba01@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, , nikn02@handelsbanken.no For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

3 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK EUR/USD USD/NOK USD/JPY SEK/NOK EUR/JPY Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK EUR/GBP ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK GBP/USD CHF/NOK EUR/CHF JPY/NOK EUR/SEK Vår prognose < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK EUR/DKK Foliorente SGD/NOK USD/KRW EUR/NOK CAD/NOK USD/RUB Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 09:30 Sverige Arbeidsledighet Mars Prosent 7,8 8,0 7,7 11:00 Italia Auksjon statspapirer 15:00 USA Case/Shiller boligindeks Februar Prosent m/m -0,1 0,2 0,2 16:00 USA Konsumenttillit April Indeks 69,5 69,7 69,2 16:00 USA Richmond Fed industri April Balanse :00 USA Nyboligsalg Mars Antall tusen Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 10:00 Norge Norges Bank utlånsundersøkelse 10:00 Eurosonen ESBs utlånsundersøkelse 10:30 Storbritannia BNP, første estimat 1.kvartal Prosent kv/kv -0,3 0, :10 Sverige Auksjon statspapirer 14:30 USA Ordre varige goder Mars Prosent m/m 2,4-1,7 -- Ordre v.g. u/eksport Mars Prosent m/m 1,8 0,5 -- Ordre siv.kap.varer u/fly Mars Prosent m/m 1,7 0,9 -- Forsendelser siv.k.v. u/fly Mars Prosent m/m 1, :00 Frankrike Auksjon statspapirer 18:30 USA FOMC rentebeslutning Prosent 0,25 0, april

4 Research Disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ) is responsible for the preparation of research reports. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information which SHB considers to be reliable. SHB has not independently verified such information and does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete. Accordingly, to the extent permitted by law, neither SHB, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of such research reports or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This report has not been given to the subject company, or any other external party, prior to publication to approval the accuracy of the facts presented. The subject company has not been notified of the recommendation, target price or estimate changes, as stated in this report, prior to publication. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. Any opinions expressed are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and reflect their judgment at this date and are subject to change, and there can be no assurance that future events will be consistent with any such opinions. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or personalized investment advice. Reliance should not be placed on such reports or opinions expressed therein when making investment or strategic decisions. SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. SHB and/or its affiliates provide investment banking and noninvestment banking financial services, including corporate banking services; and, securities advice to issuers of securities mentioned in research reports. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Distribution of our research in any such other jurisdictions may constitute a violation of UK or US securities laws, or the law of any such other jurisdiction. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen), and authorised and subject to limited regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. From time to time, we may offer investment banking and other services to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We may act as adviser and/or broker to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We buy and sell the securities mentioned in our research from customers on a principal basis. Accordingly, we may at any time have a long or short position in any such securities. We may make a market in the securities of all the companies mentioned in this report. [Further information and relevant disclosures are contained within our research reports.] This document may be distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (or any order made thereunder) or (i) to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), (ii) to high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) to persons who are professional clients under Chapter 3 of the FSA Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). The research reports are directed only at Relevant Persons, other persons should not act or rely on such reports or any of their contents. UK customers should note that SHB does not participate in the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment business and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. The views contained in SHB research reports accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts, and no part of analysts compensation is directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. For specific analyst certification, please contact Robert Gärtner on tel In the United Kingdom SHB is regulated by the Financial Services Authority but recipients should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme nor the rules of the FSA made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of private customers apply to this research report. When Distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. SHB and its employees are not subject to FINRA s research analyst rules which are intended to prevent conflicts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation practices, restricting trading by analysts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report. SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person. Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Each analyst identified in this research report certifies that the opinions expressed herein and attributed to such analyst accurately reflect his or her individual views about the companies or securities discussed in the research report, and that no part of such analyst s compensation has been or will be related, directly or indirectly, to specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number For company-specific disclosure texts, please consult the Handelsbanken Capital Markets website: Those wishing to see the disclosure text who do not have the access to the website, please contact Robert Gärtner on tel Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, In Finland by the Financial Supervision of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. SHB has recently had, currently has, or will be seeking corporate finance assignments with the subject company. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted guidelines to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify, eliminate, avoid, deal with, or make public actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Chinese walls ) in communication between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The guidelines also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines and guidelines on conflicts of interests relating to analysts, please see the Bank s website the bank/investor relations/corporate social responsibility/ethical guidelines or Guidelines for research. Handelsbanken has a ZERO tolerance of bribery and corruption. This is established in the Bank s Group Policy on Bribery and Corruption. The prohibition against bribery also includes the soliciting, arranging or accepting bribes intended for the employee s family, friends, associates or acquaintances.

5 Contact information Capital Markets Michael Green Head Per Elcar Global co-head of Equities Björn Linden Global co-head of Equities Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research and Chief Economist, SHB Magnus Fageräng Head of Structured Products Peter Karlsson Head of Equity & Credit Research Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange & Commodities Carl Cederschiöld Head of Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Håkan Larsson Head of Currencies Magnus Strömer Head of Commodities Patrik Castman-Langlet Head of Derivative Sales Lars Henriksson Head of F/X Sales Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Kjell Arvidsson Head of Loans Per Jäderberg Head of Structured Finance Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Economic Research Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Swedish Economy Eva Dorenius Web Editor Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head Martin Enlund Senior Strategist FI/FX Johan Sahlström Senior Credit Strategist Therese Öhlin Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Economic Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Danish economy Thomas Haugaard Latin America, Emerging Markets Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Economic Research Tuulia Asplund Finnish economy Olli Hyytiäinen Finnish economy Norway Knut Anton Mork Head, Economic Research Ida Wolden Bache Norwegian economy Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Kari Due-Andresen Norwegian economy Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Karl-Johan Svensson Gävle Andreas Edvardson Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Christiane Junio Malmö Jonas Darte Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Umeå Kenneth Båtsman Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen Allé 11, Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC