Morgenrapport, onsdag, 10. oktober 2012

Transkript

1 Morgenrapport, onsdag, 10. oktober 2012 Republikanere i Kongressen antyder fleksibilitet for å unngå budsjettstupet IMF ser økt risiko i det globale finansielle systemet Merkel mottatt med protester i Aten, men oppfordrer til fortsatt innstramming Liten stemningsendring for små og mellomstore foretak i USA Vi venter norsk kjerneinflasjon på 1,0% for september Internasjonalt Ifølge Financial Times skal nå ledende republikanere i den amerikanske Kongressen være på glid i retning av et kompromiss med demokratene som kan unngå det såkalte budsjettstupet (Fiscal cliff) etter årsskiftet. De skal nå være villige til å gå med på skatteøkning for de aller rikeste i tilfelle Obama vinner presidentvalget. I det tilfellet mener de at de vil ha for svak forhandlingskraft til å tvinge fram en krisesituasjon i perioden mellom valget og det nye året, da Kongressen sitter som lame duck. Dette kan bli en viktig avklaring, som kan fjerne mye av den kortsiktige usikkerheten som sies å holde tilbake en del investeringer og forretningsplaner i dagens situasjon. I sin halvårlige rapport om finansiell stabilitet konkluderer Det internasjonale pengefondet (IMF) med at risikoen for ustabilitet i det globale finansielle systemet har økt siden april. Krisen i eurosonen er fortsatt den viktigste grunnen til bekymring, og fondet frykter at uten økt besluttsomhet fra myndighetene vil nedbygging av balansene i bankene i de kriserammede landene bidra til å forsterke den økonomiske nedturen. IMF understreker også viktigheten av at Japan og USA tar grep for å få kontroll med statsfinansene på mellomlang sikt. Tidligere i uken nedjusterte IMF også prognosene for global vekst. På europeisk side kom Merkel på besøk til Aten i går. Selv om besøket var ment som tegn på godvilje og solidaritet, ble hun mottatt med kraftige demonstrasjoner. Hennes oppfordring om fortsatt stramhet ble neppe tatt godt imot i gatene; men hun understreker at dette må til for at landet skal få beholde euroen. Selv heller vi mer og mer i retning av at EU vil strekke seg svært langt når det gjelder Hellas. Ikke minst vil de bli utsatt for press fra USA, som er redd for at Hellas skal miste interessen for NATO og orientere seg mer i retning av Midt-Østen eller Russland om det skulle bli utstøtt av eurosonen eller EU. Det var noe sparsomt med makrodata i går. Men vi merker oss at produksjonen i britisk tilvirkningsindustri falt mer enn ventet i august, slik at gjeninnhentningen der nok fortsatt lar vente på seg tross kvantitative lettelser fra Bank of England. Fra USA fikk vi NFIB-indeksen for små og mellomstore foretak. Den tok en pause i de siste månedenes forsiktige oppgang. Imidlertid har ikke denne indeksen i det siste vært like god indikator for generell vekst som i tidligere tilsvarende perioder. I dag venter vi tall for industriproduksjonen i Finland og Sverige. I den forbindelse merker vi oss særlig at våre svenske kolleger venter fall i sin statistikk, blant annet på grunn av de negative signalene fra PMI. Fra USA får vi i kveld Beige Book fra Federal Reserve. Denne gir som kjent verbalt referat fra de samtalene hver av Feds distriktsbanker har hatt om den økonomiske situasjonen med foretak i sine respektive dirstrikter. For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

2 Norge Den amerikanske dollaren har styrket seg ytterligere mot euroen i asiatisk handletid, og skulle 200-dagers glidende gjennomsnitt på 1,2822 brytes kan det være duket for ytterligere dollarstyrking. Utviklingen i valutamarkedet siden starten på uken har nok vært preget av lave forventninger til resultatmeldinger fra bedrifter de neste ukene, samt at usikkerheten har tiltatt rundt de økonomiske vekstutsiktene. Krona har ligget rundt 7,38 mot euroen, godt hjulpet av en høyere oljepris. Et brudd av nivået kan bidra til ytterligere NOK-styrking. Det kom ingen norske makrodata i går. I dag får vi inflasjonstallene for september. Kjerneinflasjonen, målt ved tolvmånedersveksten i KPIJAE, falt til 1,2 prosent i august og overrasket både oss og Norges Bank på nedsiden. I september venter vi at høyere matvarepriser, en sesongmessig oppgang i prisene på klær og skotøy samt høyere priser på flyreiser, som falt kraftig i august, vil trekke opp månedsveksten, men ikke nok til å forhindre at tolvmånedersveksten faller til 1,0 prosent. Norges Banks prognose fra juni er 1,3 prosent. Får vi rett, vil det i tilfelle innebære et kvartalsgjennomsnitt for kjerneinflasjonen på 1,2 prosent for tredje kvartal, noe som er 0,3 prosentpoeng under Norges Banks prognose og som isolert sett vil trekke i retning av en lavere rentebane i oktober. Vi venter heller ingen rask oppgang i inflasjonen de nærmeste månedene. For KPI samlet venter vi at inflasjonen tar seg svakt opp fra 0,5 prosent i august til 0,6 prosent i september. Senere i ettermiddag får vi tall for Norges Banks foretrukne mål på kjerneinflasjonen, KPIXE, som i august var 0,9 prosent. Også denne venter vi at vil komme inn under sentralbankens prognose på 1,1 prosent. Ansvarlig for dagens rapport: Knut Anton Mork Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, , knmo01@handelsbanken.no Ida Wolden Bache, , idba01@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, , nikn02@handelsbanken.no Kari Due-Andresen (permisjon) 10. oktober

3 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK 7,3801 EUR/USD 1,2855 1,70 1,78 1,92 2,11 2,35 USD/NOK 5,7408 USD/JPY 78,21 SEK/NOK 0,8566 EUR/JPY 100,52 Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK 0,9898 EUR/GBP 0, ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK 9,1876 GBP/USD 1,5991 2,16 2,25 2,55 2,85 3,19 CHF/NOK 6,0955 EUR/CHF 1,2112 JPY/NOK 7,3418 EUR/SEK 8,6257 Vår prognose < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK 5,8695 EUR/DKK 7,4579 Foliorente 1,50 1,75 2,00 SGD/NOK 4,6702 USD/KRW 1114,4 EUR/NOK 7,25 7,20 7,10 CAD/NOK 5,8665 USD/RUB 31,1950 Gårsdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 10:30 Storbritannia Industriproduksjon August Prosent m/m 2,9-0,5-0,5 10:30 Storbritannia Tilvirkningsindustrien August Prosent m/m 3,2-0,7-1,1 13:30 USA NFIB-indeksen September Indeks 92,9 93,3 92,8 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 08:00 Finland Industriproduksjon August Prosent m/m 0,8 0, :30 Sverige Industriproduksjon August Prosent m/m 0,3-0,5-0,3 10:00 Norge KPI September Prosent år/år 0,5 0,5 0,6 10:00 Norge KPI-JAE September Prosent år/år 1,2 1,0 1,0 14:00 Norge KPIXE September Prosent år/år 0, :00 USA Beige Book 10. oktober

4 Research Disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ) is responsible for the preparation of research reports. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information which SHB considers to be reliable. SHB has not independently verified such information and does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete. Accordingly, to the extent permitted by law, neither SHB, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of such research reports or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This report has not been given to the subject company, or any other external party, prior to publication to approval the accuracy of the facts presented. The subject company has not been notified of the recommendation, target price or estimate changes, as stated in this report, prior to publication. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. Any opinions expressed are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and reflect their judgment at this date and are subject to change, and there can be no assurance that future events will be consistent with any such opinions. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or personalized investment advice. Reliance should not be placed on such reports or opinions expressed therein when making investment or strategic decisions. SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. SHB and/or its affiliates provide investment banking and noninvestment banking financial services, including corporate banking services; and, securities advice to issuers of securities mentioned in research reports. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Distribution of our research in any such other jurisdictions may constitute a violation of UK or US securities laws, or the law of any such other jurisdiction. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen), and authorised and subject to limited regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. From time to time, we may offer investment banking and other services to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We may act as adviser and/or broker to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We buy and sell the securities mentioned in our research from customers on a principal basis. Accordingly, we may at any time have a long or short position in any such securities. We may make a market in the securities of all the companies mentioned in this report. [Further information and relevant disclosures are contained within our research reports.] This document may be distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (or any order made thereunder) or (i) to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), (ii) to high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) to persons who are professional clients under Chapter 3 of the FSA Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). The research reports are directed only at Relevant Persons, other persons should not act or rely on such reports or any of their contents. UK customers should note that SHB does not participate in the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment business and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. The views contained in SHB research reports accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts, and no part of analysts compensation is directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. For specific analyst certification, please contact Robert Gärtner on tel In the United Kingdom SHB is regulated by the Financial Services Authority but recipients should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme nor the rules of the FSA made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of private customers apply to this research report. When Distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. SHB and its employees are not subject to FINRA s research analyst rules which are intended to prevent conflicts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation practices, restricting trading by analysts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report. SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person. Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Each analyst identified in this research report certifies that the opinions expressed herein and attributed to such analyst accurately reflect his or her individual views about the companies or securities discussed in the research report, and that no part of such analyst s compensation has been or will be related, directly or indirectly, to specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number For company-specific disclosure texts, please consult the Handelsbanken Capital Markets website: Those wishing to see the disclosure text who do not have the access to the website, please contact Robert Gärtner on tel Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, In Finland by the Financial Supervision of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. SHB has recently had, currently has, or will be seeking corporate finance assignments with the subject company. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted guidelines to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify, eliminate, avoid, deal with, or make public actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Chinese walls ) in communication between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The guidelines also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines and guidelines on conflicts of interests relating to analysts, please see the Bank s website the bank/investor relations/corporate social responsibility/ethical guidelines or Guidelines for research. Handelsbanken has a ZERO tolerance of bribery and corruption. This is established in the Bank s Group Policy on Bribery and Corruption. The prohibition against bribery also includes the soliciting, arranging or accepting bribes intended for the employee s family, friends, associates or acquaintances.

5 Contact information Capital Markets Michael Green Head Per Elcar Head of Securities, Fixed Income, FX and Commodities Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research and Chief Economist, SHB Peter Karlsson Head of Equity & Credit Research Björn Linden Head of Equities UK and US Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Kjell Arvidsson Head of Loans Per Jäderberg Head of Structured Finance Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Fixed Income Equity Sales, Foreign Exchange & Commodities Carl Cederschiöld Head of Sales Peter Bolz Head of Equity Sales Thomas Grandin Head of Fixed Income Sales Lars Henriksson Head of FX Sales Magnus Strömer Head of Commodities Sales Peter Carlberg Head of Derivative Sales Per Sjögemark Head of Structured Saving Products Martin Nossman Head of Cross Asset Execution Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head Martin Enlund Senior Strategist FI/FX Johan Sahlström Senior Credit Strategist Therese Ruth Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Economic Research Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Economic Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Danish economy Thomas Haugaard Latin America, Emerging Markets Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Economic Research Tuulia Asplund Finnish economy Norway Knut Anton Mork Head, Economic Research Ida Wolden Bache Norwegian economy Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Kari Due-Andresen Norwegian economy Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Karl-Johan Svensson Gävle Andreas Edvardson Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Erik Bertram Malmö Jonas Darte Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen Allé 11, Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC