CDI (Community Disturbance Index);-

Transkript

1 CDI (Community Disturbance Index);- Nytteverdi for sedimentovervåking? Frode Brakstad

2 Innhold a) Historikk b) Eksempler c) Nytteverdi?

3 CDI milestones and results; part 1 Start of project (1994) Business goal: Project goal: Holistic approach (measure for verifying) based on trends Reduce no. of stations in off shore pollution monitoring studies without loosing any infomation? To develop a species depended model able to accurately quantify pollution induced influence on benthic fauna in border zones Finansing: -Norsk Hydro (H.J.Beck) -NFR (The Royal Norwegian Council for Scientific and Industrial Research) Participants: -Norsk Hydro R&D centre, NH operational support (problems & data) -University of Oslo (statistical methods) -University of Bergen (analytical chemistry, biology, chemometrics) -Pattern Recognition Systems (programming)

4 Pollution effects on benthic community No. of species (rule of thumb) No. opportunistic species, e.g. Capitella capitata No. sensitive species, e.g. Owenia fusiformis Distance along main current

5 How to analyze or model this? Qualitative methods (species dependent) Visual inspection of data and classification (e.g. A-D) Multivariate analysis and visualisation (PCA, CA, MDS plots, Cluster Analysis (BC dissimilarity)) Categorical classification/ quantification (i.e. A-B-C-D-E) Quantitative methods (species independent) Indices (SW, Hurlbert s (diversity), Pielou s (eveness)

6 Problems: Qualitative methods: sensitive but not quantitative or standarised Quantitative methods: not sensitive to small changes (border zones)

7 Milestones and results; -part 2 1) 1994 start of project (Hydro UiB - UiO) 2) 1995 First model applied to Oseberg C. Promising 3) 1996 First paper accepted (Massart et al.1996) Aquatic Science, 58, ) 4) Applied to several fields (Norsk Hydro) 5) 1997 First Ph.D (B.Massart,UiB)

8 Milestones and results; -part 3 7) 1998 Applied on Region III (PRS a.s. for Norsk Hydro) 8) 2002 Second Ph.D (G.R.Flaaten, UiB) 9) 2003 Independent positive evaluation of Akvaplan niva (ERMS) 10) 2003 CDI reformulated and based on CA (O.M.Kvalheim et al, submitted ES&T) Until now the CDI has been calculated on more than 19 fields including more than 40 surveys in the North Sea. However: still not well known: a) mostly applied to Norsk Hydros (and Statoil) fields b) most papers method-oriented and published in non-biology Journals

9 2003 Akvaplan niva report APN : (Evaluation of methods for analysing and modelling changes in benthic fauna)..it is conluded that CDI fulfills most of the given criteria 1 well, however, it is recommended that further experience is gained with use of the method under varying environmental conditions. Since then Akvaplan Niva and MUST have been working together on ERMS project testing with CDI with accurate results on: Njord 96, 00 and 03 Lille Frigg 00 NE Frigg 00 Norne 00 Vigdis 99 Goliath (Criteria: high sensitivity and objectivity, applicable for modelling and impact assesment, recognised and accepted by the regulartory authorities and the scientific community)

10 Species 1 Species 1 Basis of CDI (Community Disturbance Index);- An integrated species dependent (multivariate) and independent (quantitative) approach Natural variation Deviation: Species 2 Species 2 Deviation measured as distance to centre of natural variation

11 Species 1 CDI 1 ; Modelling (CA) of natural variation Natural range (0-1) Species 2 Confidence interval = 1 Tested on several fields All stations are classified (empirically): 0-1 Not polluted 1-2 Moderately polluted 2-4 Polluted 4-> Very polluted Accurate estimation of border zones, i.e. CDI = 1) 1 Based on SIMCA, S.Wold and M.Sjöström (1977). Easily available

12 The CDI approach (includes ALL available data, i.e. biology, chemistry and physical parameters) 1. Define the reference stations (the undisturbed samples) a) Explore field by chemical data. Look for gradients (PCA/CA) b) Confirm findings by biology (CA, MDS, Bray-Curtis dissimilarity index) c) Explore physical data (inspections of selected samples) d) Define candidates for reference samples e) Define model 2. Calculate the CDI

13 Oseberg East 2001 Samples: From CA Stations Angles Distance Depth Poll. CHEM 1 OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ-14A OSEØ-14B OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ

14 Oseberg East 2001 Samples (Disturbed biology from MDS, CA, Dendograms) Stations Angles Distance Depth Elev. CHEM Dist. BIO 1 OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ-14A OSEØ-14B OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ

15 The CDIs Stations Angles Distance Depth Elev. CHEM Dist. BIO CDI 1 OSEØ ,81 2 OSEØ ,98 3 OSEØ ,97 4 OSEØ ,06 5 OSEØ ,50 6 OSEØ ,15 7 OSEØ ,00 9 OSEØ ,80 10 OSEØ ,65 11 OSEØ ,01 12 OSEØ ,04 13 OSEØ ,88 14 OSEØ-14A ,93 15 OSEØ-14B ,96 16 OSEØ ,86 17 OSEØ ,86 18 OSEØ ,85 19 OSEØ ,79

16 The species independent indices. (Hs, Hurlberts DI, Pielous EI from SirEnviron) Station Distance Angles CDI Species Shannon-Wiener Pielous Hurlbert 2001 OSEØ , ,6 0,68 32, OSEØ , ,8 0,69 33, OSEØ , ,6 0,81 43, OSEØ , ,2 0,53 19, OSEØ ,5 94 4,0 0,61 24, OSEØ , ,6 0,68 32, OSEØ ,3 0,78 40, OSEØ ,8 95 4,2 0,64 29, OSEØ , ,9 0,75 36, OSEØ , ,2 0,66 28, OSEØ , ,3 0,69 29, OSEØ , ,1 0,76 38, OSEØ-14A , ,7 0,73 36, OSEØ-14B , ,8 0,74 35, OSEØ , ,0 0,77 35, OSEØ , ,6 0,83 44, OSEØ , ,0 0,65 30, OSEØ , ,0 0,75 36,51

17 Status Oseberg 2001 (CDI) Contour, graphs, tables etc. > < 1.0

18 Log scale Chemistry vs Biology Oseberg 2001 THC,CDI and Hs , Station THC CDI Hs

19 VGIT-01 VGIT-02 VGIT-03 VGIT-04 VGIT-05 VGIT-06 VGPT2-07 VGPT2-08 VGPT2-09 VGPT2-10 VGPT2-11 VGPT2-12 VGPT2-14 VGPT2-15 VGPT2-16 VGPT2-17 VGPT2-18 VGPT1-19 VGPT1-21 VGPT1-22 VGPT1-23 VGPT1-24 VGPT1-25 VGPT1-27 VGPT1-28 CDI-Index Vigdis Samsvar CDI (Biologi) og Partrack (Kjemi) Calculation and measurements of the deposition of barite (g/m 2). Colored area is results from ParTrack Simulations (H.Rye) *10 1 Class: 4, CDI-Index(Crit. 0.01),(Comp. 0), Date 31/8/ CDIs Vigdis Stations

20 CDI nytteverdi (merverdi vs dagens metoder) Entydig mål på effekt basert på statistisk modell Kvantitativ også i overgangsoner gir nye muligheter (NECs og modellering biologi vs kjemi) Kan brukes til beregning av effektendringer over tid

21 Comp. 2 (14.7%) Entydig mål (CA)? 2.28 *10-1 DataSet: Oseberg 2001 polish, Ref. Set: 01, Scores 1 vs 2, Date 2/9/ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ OSEØ Comp. 1 (14.7%) *10-2

22 Entydige mål på effekt Method used : CA Number of Components : 1 Mean Standard Deviation of the Ref. Set : Degrees of freedom. F1 : 179 Degrees of freedom. F2 : 1969 F test statistics (p = 0.950) : Rejection criterion for outliers. RSD > :0.016 CDI er global og generisk for verdier rundt 1.0 Stations CDI OSEØ-01 0,81 OSEØ-02 0,98 OSEØ-03 0,97 OSEØ-04 3,06 OSEØ-05 2,50 OSEØ-06 1,15 OSEØ-07 1,00 OSEØ-09 0,80 OSEØ-10 0,65 OSEØ-11 1,01 OSEØ-12 1,04 OSEØ-13 0,88 OSEØ-14A 0,93 OSEØ-14B 0,96 OSEØ-15 0,86 OSEØ-16 0,86 OSEØ-17 0,85 OSEØ-18 0,79

23 67.5/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Nye FoU muligheter i å koble effekt og kjemikaliekonsentrasjon (e.g.njord akuttutslipp 31 tonn OBM tre mnd før prøvetaking ) CDIs Njord 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 CDI = f(kjemi) CDI 2000 CDI 2003 Kjemikalie CDI Dekaliner 0,97 THC 0,96 Cu 0,93 Zn 0,89 Cd 0,8 Ba 0,69 Cr 0,65 Pb 0,63 NPD 0,17 PAH 0,01 [1] I hovedsak lekkasje I slip-joint

24 Effektendringer over tid for felt.. tid Et tall som reflekterer endring over tid kan være en løsning (.avh. management, forsker, praktisk ingeniør?)

25 CDI og sedimentovervåking I Verktøyet kan bidra til et bedre overvåkingsprogram ved: Beslutning om påvirkning basert på statistisk sannsynlighet (dog basert på biologisk kunnskap! og tilgjengelige sed.data) Enklere å definere påvirket areal Enklere å følge trender over tid Enklere å relatere kjemikaliekonsentrasjoner til effekter (god relasjon biologi og miljøvariable)

26 CDI og sedimentovervåking II Strategien kan bidra til et mer kostnadseffektiv og helhetlig overvåkingsprogram ved: Gitt noen stabile referanse stasjoner (lokalt,regional) Erfaringsbasert design basert på feltets karakteristika: Prøvetaking basert på estimert spredning og effekter Overvåkingsfokus flyttes til å verifisere modell (fokus på sårbare/effekt områder/overgangssoner?) Fokus på bedre data, færre stasjoner

27 Takk til.. Norsk Hydro NFR Pattern Recognition Systems UiO UiB ERMS program med partnere Akvaplan niva

28 Utviklingsområder CDI er moden for bruk i sedimentovervåking Koble CDI til mengde og type kjemikalier i sedimenter (hva betyr CDI 4 vs CDI 10 mht mengde og tye kjemikalier?) Uttrykke integrert effekt på et felt baset på CDI Utvikle kjemikalie-nec verdier (utvikle fra biologi til inkl. K og S) Undersøke anvendbarhet som generisk effekt parameter (Kan CDI = 5 i Mexico Gulf sammenliknes med tilsvarende CDI i Nordsjøen?)