2010 Residential & Commercial Electric SAE Update. Oleg Moskatov Eric Fox

Transkript

1 2010 Residential & Commercial Electric SAE Update Oleg Moskatov Eric Fox

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3 2010 SAE UPDATE 2010 SAE Model Update Based on the EIA 2010 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Agenda Overview of the Residential Electric SAE Model Parameters Updated Saturation and Efficiency Projections Impact on Residential Usage Trends Overview of the Commercial Electric SAE Model Parameters Updated End Use Intensity Trends Implications for Commercial Sales Alternative SAE Model Specification

4 Residential SAE Update 2010 Changes from 2009 Slightly higher equipment efficiency projections in most end uses Higher building shell efficiency projections Little to no change in saturation projections in most end uses EIA higher overall efficiency projections reflect expected impact of Fd Federal efficiency i spending and ARRA tax credits

5 Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends EIA provides efficiency projections for space heating, water heating and cooling equipment expressed in terms of energy output tper unit of energy input Forother other equipment/appliances, unitenergy consumption (UEC) is used as a proxy for efficiency Calculated as: UEC = EnergyUse Stock Type Type Reflects regional differences in appliance stock age distribution and long term price impacts

6 Efficiency Trends For most end uses, little change from 2009 Efficiency i projections are either ih unchanged or slightly l higherh Exceptions: water heating, televisions, and miscellaneous

7 Water Heating Efficiency Lower average waterheatingefficiency efficiency projection ispartly due to lower projected electricity prices Cheaper electricity reduces the rate of adoption of more efficient equipment, such as heat pump water heaters

8 TV and Miscellaneous UEC Initial higher TV usage growth reflects stronger penetration of largetvs. This flattens out in the later years with stronger efficiency projections Changes in Miscellaneous UEC reflects further calibration to RECS 2005 Miscellaneous use increases slightly faster than in 2009

9 Structural Index The structural index is a key component in the calculation of heating and cooling indices that allows us to capture effects of changes in square footage and building envelope efficiency gains HeatIndex y = StructuralIndexy Weight Type Type Sat Sat Type y Type 05 Eff Eff Type y Type 05 StructuralIndex y = BuildingShellEfficiencyIndex BuildingShellEfficiencyIndex y SurfaceArea SurfaceAre 05 a 05 y

10 Building Shell Efficiency Projections EIA projects stronger efficiency gains as a result of more stringent building codes and regulations and increases in the ARRA efficiency tax credit caps

11 Saturation Trends End use stock saturation is calculated by dividing equipment stock kby the number of households: h Saturation Type = EquipmentStock Type NumberOfHouseholds Resulting saturations trends are combined with efficiency/uec and structural projections to create end use indices

12 Saturation Trends For most equipment types, there is little to no change from 2009 projections

13 Heat Pumps and Water Heaters Heat pump market share is somewhat lower as groundsource heat pumps gain market share Lower saturation projections reflect lower cost of natural gas relative to electricity gas space and water heating gain share

14 Ground Source Heat Pumps In 2010, ground source heat pumps have been added to the residential electric spreadsheets EIA expects higher rate of penetration of this technology throughout the country compared with last year

15 Furnace Fans In 2010 furnace fans were separated out of the electric heat enduse Increasing furnace fan UEC projections reflect increasing home size 15

16 Furnace Fans Furnace fan loads are allocated to months based on normal heating degree days 16

17 End Use Indices Saturation, efficiency and structural projections are used to build end use indices EndUseIndex y = Structural Indexy Weight Type Type Sat Sat Type y Type 05 Eff Eff Type y Type 05 End use indices calculated for heating, cooling, and base use

18 Heating & Cooling Indices Stronger building shell efficiency, combined with lower electric heat saturation results in lower electric heating usage Lower cooling usage is largely due to slightly stronger building shell gains and adoption of more efficient cooling systems

19 Base Use Index Sharp decline in base use in 2013 reflects new lighting standards Little base use energy growth through 2020

20 Residential Average Use Forecast Average use is relatively flat through 2020 consistent with AEO projections of residential energy consumption Slightly lower electricity price projections mitigate some of the impact of stronger efficiency projections

21 Residential UEC Forecasts Long term UEC projections have trended down over the last three years Forecast reflects further expectations of end use and thermal shell efficiency gains

22 Changes from 2009 Commercial 2010 Update Increased projected efficiency, largely through incorporation of new standards and revised modeling assumptions This translates into lower energy intensity (use per square foot) projections An alternative commercial sales model based on energy intensity and floor space forecasts has been included in the MetrixND commercial project file

23 Efficiency Heating BTU output / BTU input Stronger efficiency projections are the common theme throughout all end uses Heating projection reflect new standards incorporated for commercial boilers

24 Efficiency Refrigeration Cubic feet per minute / BTU input New standards were also adopted for commercial refrigeration equipment, including refrigerators and walk in freezers

25 Efficiency Lighting Lumens / Watt Stronger lighting efficiency projection as a result of new fluorescent and reflector lamp standards

26 Efficiency NEMS Modeling Assumptions In addition to incorporating recent efficiency standards, the followingmodel assumptions implemented in 2010also impact efficiency projections: Building retirement parameters were updated leading to a greater share of new floor space that has more efficient equipment Hurdle rate distribution were also updated leading to more purchases of efficient equipment

27 Energy Intensity Heating kwh per square foot 2010 energy intensity projections reflect, for the most part, stronger efficiency projections

28 Energy Intensity Refrigeration kwh per square foot Lower energy intensity projections across all the primary commercial end uses

29 Energy Intensity Lighting kwh per square foot Though lower usage projections, lighting still accounts for the largest share of commercialenergy energy usage

30 Energy Intensity Office/PC kwh per square foot The dramatic drop in growth rate in the Office PC energy intensity comes largely as a result of revised assumptions of penetration of LCD monitors

31 Energy Intensity Miscellaneous kwh per square foot Other (non PC) office equipment and miscellaneous energy intensity projections are largely unchanged from 2009

32 Energy Intensity kwh per square foot Average commercial energy intensity projections declined every year since 2008 largely due to worsening economic conditions and stronger efficiency assumptions 0.2% average annual growth in energy intensity

33 Square Footage Little change in square footage projections between 2009 and 2010 forecast 12% 1.2% average annual increase in commercial ilsquare footage

34 Sales Forecast Combining intensity and square footage forecast results in 1.4% commercial sales growth This compares with 16%sales 1.6% growth in the 2009 forecast

35 Commercial Models In 2010, two new tabs were added to the commercial SAE spreadsheets: Intensity tab Contains end use intensities FloorSpace tab Contains total regional floor space in square feet Intensity and square footage projections are combined and used in an additional template model in the commercial MetrixND project file 35

36 Alternative Model Specification > > 36

37 Alternative Model Specification 37

38 Questions? Press *6 to ask a question or type in bottom, right corner. REMAINING 2010 WORKSHOP SCHEDULE AND REGISTRATION Australian Energy Forecasting Workshop Melbourne, Australia October Fundamentals of Short Term and Hourly Forecasting San Diego, CA October OTHER FORECASTING MEETINGS 3 rd Annual Australian Forecasting User Group Meeting Melbourne, Australia October Itron Users Conference Orlando, FL October For more information and registration: Contact us at: , or forecasting@itron.com