1 Morgenrapport, tirsdag, 24. august 2010 Fortsatt frykt i markedet Internasjonalt I mangel av særlig tunge makrotall var markedsfokuset rettet mot den økte fusjons- og oppkjøpsaktiviteten (M&A) som pågår for tiden, men som har kommet i skyggen av de mange svake makrotallene. F.eks meldes det om at HSBC er i oppkjøpssamtaler med den sørafrikanske banken Nedbank. Reuters melder om M&Aaktivitet på om lag $58mrd i går, og nær $200mrd så langt i august. Gruveaksjer steg også, etter at søndagens uavklarte valg i Australia ga markedet håp om regjeringsskifte, og dermed håp om at den varslede gruveskatten blir skrinlagt. Den japanske statsministeren satt i går i møte med landets sentralbanksjef. Markedet hadde spekulert i at dette møtet ville resultere i tiltak mot yen-styrkelsen. Yen styrket seg derimot videre mot dollar etter at møtet ikke resulterte i noe tiltak, og at valutaintervensjon ikke engang ble diskutert (dog ble valutakursen som sådan diskutert) Yen-styrkelsen kan også være drevet av økt risikofrykt i markedet. Det samme kan man si om dollarstyrkelsen mot euro på ½ cent over døgnet. Også Wall Street og Nikkei er ned, de fleste PIIGS-landenes ti års statsrentespread mot tyske bund er opp, oljeprisen er ned, volalitetsindeksen VIX er opp. Det at de fleste PIIGSlandenes 5 års kredittforsikringspremie (CDS) har falt, kan enten være et motsvar på de ovennevnte risikofargede bevegelsene, eller så kan det simpelthen være et tidsetterslep, slik at man kan vente seg en oppgang her enten i dag eller de nærmeste dagene. Lynestimatet for tysk innkjøpssjefsindeks (PMI) for august viste en sterk oppgang for tjenestesektoren, som mer enn oppveide nedgangen i industrisektoren, slik at totalen steg noe. Men tilsvarende total fra Frankrike falt en del. I sum falt eurosonens samlede PMI også, dratt ned hovedsakelig av industrisektoren. I ettermiddag får vi amerikansk bruktboligomsetning for juli, som er ventet å falle en hel del (se tabell nedenfor), samt sentimentindeksen fra Richmond Fed (både industri og tjenester). Noe tidligere får vi Canadisk detaljomsetning for juni, mens kl.11 ventes veksten i eurosonens industriordre å avta. Fra amerikansk side fikk vi kun den nasjonale aktivitetsindeksen for juli fra Chicago Fed, som steg til flatt fra et lite fall. Som grafen nedenfor viser har gjeninnhentingen stoppet opp, trenden har flatet ut; altså samme utvikling som de fleste sentimentindikatorer fra USA (vel, mange av de andre viser faktisk et trendfall, ikke bare flatt). Norge Kronen har styrket seg mot euro med ca 2 øre over døgnet. I går holdt Gjedrem tale på Universitetet i Oslo. Talen var interessant, men innholdt ikke noen nye pengepolitiske signaler. Også i dag skal Gjedrem holde foredag, For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side
2 på Utenriksdepartementets stasjonsmøte. Ei heller denne gang venter vi noen nye signaler. Foredraget blir ikke publisert på Norges Banks nettside. Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, , Shakeb Syed, , Nils Kristian Knudsen, , Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK EUR/USD USD/NOK USD/JPY SEK/NOK EUR/JPY Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK EUR/GBP ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK GBP/USD CHF/NOK EUR/CHF JPY/NOK EUR/SEK Våre prognoser < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK EUR/DKK Foliorente SGD/NOK USD/KRW EUR/NOK CAD/NOK USD/RUB Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 09:58 Eurosonen PMI industri, lynestimat August Balanse 56, :59 Eurosonen PMI tjenester, lynestimat August Balanse 55, :00 Norge Sentralbanksjef Gjedrem holder foredrag 16:00 Eurosonen Konsumenttillit August Netto balanse -14, [XX] Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 11:00 Eurosonen Nye industriordre Juni Prosent, m/m 3,8 1, :00 Norge Foredrag av Gjedrem 14:30 Canada Detaljomsetn., kjerne Juni Prosent, m/m -0, :00 USA Bruktboligomsetning Juli Ant.mill 5,37 4, august
3 16:00 USA Richmond Fed, samlet August Indeks 16, august
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