Morgenrapport, onsdag, 25. august 2010

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1 Morgenrapport, onsdag, 25. august 2010 Både svake nyheter og makrotall gir markedet nok en tung dag Internasjonalt Nok en dag med svake tall og nyheter. Det startet på morgenen i går med nyheten fra anonyme kilder i Wall Street Journal om at minst 7 av de totalt 17 av Fedmedlemmene hadde betenkeligheter rundt avgjørelsen ved siste rentemøtet om at Fed vil kjøpe statssertifikater som et ledd i deres kvantitative lettelser. Nå er det slik at alle de 17 medlemmene ikke har stemmerett, men kun 10. Av disse ti vet vi at sertifikatkjøpene ble stemt igjennom med 9 mot 1 stemmere. Men dette stemmeavgigningsresultatet viser altså ikke den store uenigheten ellers i Fed. Den andre dårlige nyheten er at S&P nedgraderer Irlands statsgjeld og setter landet på negativ outlook, hvilket impliserer store muligheter for videre nedgradering. Grunnen oppgis å være at S&P har opprevidert kostnadene Irland vil ha for å støtte dets skakke finanssystem. F.eks vil Irlands kapitalinnsprøytning i Anglo Irish Bank heve statsgjelden til 113% av BNP, et nivå 1,5 ganger høyere enn median for andre eurosoneland, og langt over gjeldsbyrden for andre land med samme kredittrangering, inkludert Spania. Så fikk vi også noen svake tall fra amerikansk bruktboligomsetning for juli, som falt den tredje sammenhengende månedene til det laveste nivået på 15 år. Riktignok er en del av fallet nok drevet av at skatterabatten for boligkjøp utløp i juni (altså at fallet derfor er midlertidig), men likevel klarer vi ikke å begrunne hele fallet med kun dette noe fundamentalt er det også. For boligprisutviklingen hjelper det heller ikke at antall boliger til salgs stiger til det høyeste siden Svake tall fikk vi også for japansk eksport i juli. Så hjalp det ikke akkurat på markedsstemningen at Feds Evan uttaler at han ser økt risiko for dobbeltdip, sammenlignet med det han gjorde for 6mnd siden. Vi skrev for øvrig noe av det samme i gårsdagens morgenrapport. En liten lys stjerne på den ellers mørke makrohimmelen fikk vi i form av detaljert tysk BNP for 2.kv som steg mer enn ventet. At privat konsum var med på å dra dette er positivt. Men vi er ikke like begeistret over at det i hovedsak var (nok en gang) eksporten som dro det, ettersom dette er et skjørt ben å stå på. La oss også gjenta at sommerens sterke tall fra Tyskland og dels fra Storbritannia neppe vil fortsette når effekten av stadige budsjettinnstramninger i hele regionen kommer klarere frem. Alt dette var naturligvis med på dempe markedssentimentet og øke risikoaversjonen, slik at f.eks aksjebørsene har falt verden over. I valutamarkedet har fokuset igjen vært på yen, med ny verbal intervensjon fra den japanske regjeringen. Merk konkret uttaler landets finansminister i natt at when necessary we must respond appropriately. Før dette hadde yen styrket seg mot dollar, ettersom markedets tro om valutaintervensjon svekket seg. Men denne troen er gjenreist etter disse uttalelsene, slik at noe av styrkelsen er reversert over natten. Graf mangler grunnet tekniske problemer. For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

2 Norge Tiltagende uro i markedene sammen med svake nøkkeltall især fra USA resulterte i en svekket NOK i gårsdagens handel. EURNOK åpnet på 7,9080 og endte 7,9645, rett i overkant av 55 dagers glidende gjennomsnitt på 7,9590. NOK-svekkelsen er dermed mer omfattende sammenlignet med forrige ukes handel, hvor riktignok 7,9875 var toppnotering, men kursen stengte aldri høyere enn 7,9250. I løpet av nattetimene har EURNOK krøpet høyere og i skrivende stund ligger vi rett i underkant av 8-tallet, mer nøyaktig 7,9920. CHFNOK har i løpet av morgenkvisten vært omsatt opp mot 6,15, det høyeste nivået siden mars i fjor. Vi venter i dag en test av 8,03 området, og en stenging over dette området åpner for en ny bevegelse opp mot 8,10. På nedsiden er det støtte på 7,9600. I dag kl.10 får vi arbeidsmarkedstall for juli (egentlig et gj.snitt av juni-august) fra AKU. I mai så vi en ekstrem oppgang på i både sysselsettingen og arbeidsstyrken. Dette mener vi er så mye for én enkeltmåned at vi simpelthen ikke tror det er reelt, men heller en målefeil. Derfor venter vi en korreksjon i juli, men ikke full korreksjon. Mer konkret at vi tror både sysselsettingen og arbeidsstyrken vil falle med 10000, slik at arbeidsstyrken vil holde seg uendret på 3,6%. Det er også markedskonsensus. Hvis vi skulle få rett, vil de siste to månedene under ett vise en oppgang på 3000, altså i tråd med vår tro om en videre moderat gjeninnhentning i så vel arbeidsmarkedet som den generelle økonomien. Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, , knmo01@handelsbanken.no Shakeb Syed, , shhu02@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, , nikn02@handelsbanken.no Morgendatatabell mangler grunnet tekniske problemer. Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 11:00 Eurosonen Nye industriordre Juni Prosent, m/m 3,8 1,5 2,5 14:00 Norge Foredrag av Gjedrem 16:00 USA Bruktboligomsetning Juli Ant.mill 5,37 4,75 3,83 For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

3 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 01:50 Japan Eksport Juli Prosent, år/år 27, ,5 09:15 Sverige Konsumsententiment August Indeks 23,3 23,0 22,0 09:15 Sverige Industrisententiment August Indeks 5,0 5,0 5,0 09:15 Sverige Økonomnisk aktivitet August Indeks 111,3 111,5 111,0 10:00 Tyskland IFO-sentiment August Indeks 106,2 105, :00 Norge Sysselsetting, AKU Juli Ant.tusen :00 Norge Ledighet, AKU Juli Prosent 3,6 3,6 3,6 14:30 USA Varige industriordre Juli Prosent, m/m -1,2 3, :30 USA Varige industriordre, kjerne Juli Prosent, m/m 0,2 0, :00 USA Nyboligomsetning Juli Ant.tusen :00 USA Oljelagertall Sist uke 25. august

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