Morgenrapport, tirsdag, 10. mai 2011

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1 Morgenrapport, tirsdag, 10. mai 2011 Frykt for gresk restrukturering tynger markedet og får S&P til å nedgradere gresk statsgjeld Norsk innenlandsk kredittvekst litt sterkere enn ventet. Vi tror norsk kjerneinflasjon (KPIJAE) for april vil ligge uendret på 0,8% år/år. Internasjonalt Økt sannsynlighet for restrukturering av gresk gjeld tynger markedet. Dette har fått kredittvurderingsselskapet Standard and Poor s til å kutte Hellas gjeldsrangering videre ned to hakk, fra BB- til B (såkalt søppelstatus). Dermed synker rangeringen ytterligere ned i søppelrangeringen, en rangering også Moody s og Fitch har til gresk gjeld. Euroen begynte å svekke seg mot dollaren etter at markedet tolket Trichets uttalelser i forbindelse med siste ukes rentemøte som signal på at det ikke vil komme noen renteheving i juni. Denne svekkelsen har fått vann på mølla av den greske restruktureringsfrykten, slik at euroen fortsatte å svekke seg mot dollaren i går. Dette kan også ha blitt drevet av Richmond Feds presidens, Jeffrey Lacker, som uttaler at change in policy stance before the end of the year is certainly conceivable in my mind. Restruktureringsfrykten har også hevet PIIGS-landenes tiårs statsrentespread mot tyske bund. Risikopremien i pengemarkedet i EUR har trendet oppover siden slutten av april, og i går fikk vi en videre oppgang. Etter fem sammenhengende dager med nedgang steg oljeprisen i går (1.pos både i Brent og WTI). Dette, sammen med nedgangen i volalitetsindeksen VIX, kan være årsaker til børsoppgangen på Wall Street. Også asiatiske børser har steget, drevet av rekordhøyt kinesisk handelsoverskudd ($11,4mrd oppgang i april, langt mer enn ventede $3mrd). Disse sterke handelstallene er kanskje ikke det Kina ønsket seg midt under det pågående 2- dagersmøtet (Strategic and Economic Dialogue) mellom Kina og USA. Tysk handelsbalanse for mars viste et langt større overskudd enn ventet, i det oppsideoverraskelsen i eksporten var betydelig større enn i importen. Dette oppgangen var så stor at den mer enn reverserer de siste to månedenes nedgang. Dog viser grafen nedenfor at denne serien er nokså volatil. Vi skal derfor heller bry oss om at den underliggende trenden er moderat stigende. Vi skal ikke se bort i fra at denne stigningstakten vil møte motbør, i form av lavere etterspørsel fra gjeldstyngede land i Europa og fra Kina hvor veksten avmater. I natt har vi fått inn særdeles sterke britiske detaljomsetningstall (ikke offisielle tall, men fra BRC og KPMG) for april. Ellers i dag får vi svensk industriproduksjon og ordre kl Vi får også NFIB-indeksen, et sentimentmål blant mindre amerikanske bedrifter. Norge For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

2 Krona styrket seg markant mot euroen i går etter at krysset startet på 7.94 og endte til slutt på Nedgangen skyldtes nok en blanding av en fortsatt svekket euro på bred basis (som nevnt ovenfor), samt at kredittveksten her hjemme nok overrasket noe på oppsiden og isolert sett økte sannsynligheten for en renteøkning på torsdag (som utdypet nedenfor). Det er interessant å merke seg at kronesvekkelsen både i april og nå før helgen skjer i løpet av noen få dager, mens tilsvarende svekkelse tidligere i år har gått over lengre tid. Vi ser for oss støtte ned mot 7,85, mens en stenging over 7,91 vil kunne signalisere en ytterligere svekkelse av krona. Total kredittvekst fra innenlandske kilder for mars kom inn på 6,.3% år/år, et lite hakk høyere enn ventet av både oss og markedet på 6,2%. Oppsideoverraskelsen ble drevet både av komponenten for husholdninger og ikkefinansielle bedrifter. Alt i alt synes vi denne overraskelsen er godt innenfor normal slingringsmonn. Ikke desto mindre er vekstoppgangen i husholdningskreditten verdt å merke seg. Oppgangen her har vart en stund, men den har vært påfallende treg, gitt kombinasjonen av lave renter, lav arbeidsledighet, høy lønnsvekst og lav inflasjon. Det kan hende veksttakten nå vil begynne å ta seg opp, drevet nettopp av de nevnte faktorene. Et argument for det motsatte kan derimot være de svake detaljomsetningstallene de siste månedene, spesielt for mars. Lav husholdningskonsum vil kunne dempe husholdningenes kredittvekst. Nettopp den noe labre utviklingen i husholdningskonsumet er hovedgrunnen til at vi tror dagens KPI-tall for april vil vise at kjerneinflasjonen (KPI JAE) blir holdt nede på uendrede 0,8% år/år. Dette er også markedskonsensus. Derimot anslår Norges Bank i sin Pengepolitiske Rapport kjerneinflasjonen å bli 0,9% år/år i april. Dette er i tråd med de mest oppdaterte prognosene fra Norges Banks system for kortidsmodeller (SAM). Fire timer etter publiseringen av KPI-tallene, publiserer Norges Bank det som sies å være dets favorittmål på inflasjonen; KPIXE, som i tillegg til å justere for avgiftsendringer også ekskluderer midlertidige endringer i energiprisene. Sentralbanken selv venter at KPIXE-inflasjonen skal holde seg uendret på 1,1% år/år. Ettersom disse inflasjonstallene kommer så tett på Norges Banks rentemøte på torsdag, tror vi de neppe vil få påvirke Bankens rentebeslutning i stor grad. Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, , Shakeb Syed, , Ida Wolden Bache, , Nils Kristian Knudsen, , 10. mai

3 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK 7,8744 EUR/USD 1,4275 2,43 2,51 2,63 2,87 3,33 USD/NOK 5,5162 USD/JPY 80,53 SEK/NOK 0,8778 EUR/JPY 114,91 Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK 1,0559 EUR/GBP 0, ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK 9,0273 GBP/USD 1,6365 3,54 3,78 4,08 4,26 4,43 CHF/NOK 6,2954 EUR/CHF 1,2508 JPY/NOK 6,8498 EUR/SEK 8,9758 Våre prognoser < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK 5,9240 EUR/DKK 7,4566 Foliorente 2,25 2,50 2,75 SGD/NOK 4,4680 USD/KRW 1082,2 EUR/NOK 7,80 7,80 7,60 CAD/NOK 5,7176 USD/RUB 27,8933 Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 10:00 Norge Innenlandsk kreditt Mars Prosent år/år 5,9 6,2 6,3 10:00 Norge Kreditt til husholdninger Mars Prosent år/år 6,6 -- 6,9 10:00 Norge Kreditt til næringsliv Mars Prosent år/år 2, Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 01:01 Storbritannia Detaljomsetning, KPMG April Prosent, år/år -3,5 -- 5,2 01:01 Storbritannia Boligpriser, RICS April Balanse :30 Sverige Industriproduksjon Mars Prosent, m/m 1,1 0,4 0,4 09:30 Sverige Industriordre Mars Prosent, m/m 0, :00 Norge KPI JAE April Prosent, år/år 0,8 0,8 0,8 10:00 Norge KPI April Prosent, år/år 1,0 1,1 1,0 10. mai

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