Morgenrapport, torsdag, 6. oktober 2011

Transkript

1 Morgenrapport, torsdag, 6. oktober 2011 EUs finansministre arbeider for koordinert rekapitalisering av bankene Norges Banks regionale nettverk viser stabilitet, men svakere utsikter Statsbudsjettet følger trolig handlingsregelen ganske nøyaktig Europeisk tjenestesektor indikerer fallende aktivitet Amerikansk privat sysselsetting kanskje ikke så verst, men fredagens offisielle tall avgjør Internasjonalt Som vi sa i går at vi ventet, melder EUs finansministre om at de arbeider med planer om en koordinert styrking av bankenes kapitaldekning. En nye stresstest er nå på tale. Dette støtter nå opp om aksjemarkedene verden over. Det er viktig for å hjelpe bankene til bedre å kunne tåle de påkjenningene som nå er sannsynlige i forbindelse med nedskriving av gresk statsgjeld. Gitt EUs konkurranseregler er det også viktig at det skjer koordinert, slik at ikke noen lands banker tilgodeses med offentlig kapital mens andre må klare seg selv. Men statenes midler er som kjent begrenset, så privat kapital vil nok foretrekkes om den kan finnes. Det største problemet kan nok bli de tilfellene der kapital trenges og verken privat eller statlig kapital er tilgjengelig. Da får vi se om det kan bli politiske løsninger på tvers av landegrenser en rimelig kinkig sak for EU og ikke minst for Tyskland. Bankene hører til i tjenestesektoren, og gårsdagens endelige PMI-er for eurosonens tjenestesektor var ikke bra. De kom inn enda litt lavere enn lynestimatene fra to uker tilbake og ligger nå under 50 for alle land unntatt Frankrike. For Storbritannia var disse tallene litt bedre; men til gjengjeld ble BNP-veksten for 2. kvartal revidert ned fra 0,2% til 0,1% kv/kv. Fra USA viste ADPs estimat for privat sysselsetting vekst på arbeidsplasser fra august til september. Det var litt over forventningene og lover relativt godt for de offisielle tallene på fredag. ADP er imidlertid en noe upålitelig prediktor fra måned til måned, så det er vanskelig å trekke noen konklusjoner fra disse tallene. Amerikansk ISM for tjenester samt bygg og anlegg falt ørlite grann, som ventet. Den gode nyheten i denne rapporten var at ordrekomponenten steg, men den dårlige at sysselsettingskomponenten falt under 50. Det øker spenningen foran fredagens offisielle arbeidsmarkedstall. I dag holder Bank og England og ESB begge rentemøter. Fra Bank of England ventes ingen renteendring, men muligheten er til stede for en annonsering av nye kvantitative lettelser. For ESB er det nå en viss forventning om rentekutt på grunn av den svake aktivitetsveksten. Imidlertid gjorde inflasjonen et byks i september; og Trichet vil neppe ønske som om han er ettergivende overfor inflasjonspress i sitt siste møte som sentralbanksjef. For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

2 Norge Det har kun vært små bevegelser i krona mot euroen over natten, etter at krysset i går falt fra til Handelen i norske kroner er nok i stor grad preget av dagens rentemøte i den europeiske sentralbanken, i tillegg til statsbudsjettet som blir offentliggjort her hjemme kl. 10. I Krysset EUR/NOK er det nå støtte på , mens et brudd på signaliserer en svakere NOK. Norges Banks regionale nettverk tyder på at veksten i fastlands-bnp var om lag 0,8% fra andre til tredje kvartal, omtrent som fra første til andre. Veksten er sterkest i industri, offshore og bygg og anlegg og svakest i tjenestesektoren. Dette er litt paradoksalt gitt den svake utviklinga i den SSBs statistikk for industriproduksjonen, men Norges Banks regionale nettverk tar sikte på å være mer oppdatert. Derimot rapporterte de fleste om svakere utsikter framover. Faktisk var utsiktene for neste halvår også svakere enn for tre måneder siden. Videre gav rapporten ingen indikasjoner om inflasjonspress på vei. Gitt at det europeiske bildet heller er blitt verre enn bedre siden siste rentemøte, anser vi derfor rapporten som konsistent med våre forventninger om en betydelig nedrevisjon av rentebanen i neste pengepolitiske rapport 19. oktober. I dag legger regjeringa fram forslaget til statsbudsjett for neste år. Gitt situasjonen i Stortinget vil det naturligvis bli vedtatt, i alle fall i hovedtrekk. Statsministeren har varslet mange kutt, og lekkasjer har kommet om heving av matmomsen. Grunnen er at situasjonen er gjort særskilt utfordrende av to årsaker. For det første innebærer svakheten i verdens finansmarkeder at oljefondet utvikler seg svakere enn ventet, slik at handlingsregelen blir mindre raus. For det andre har langt flere enn ventet bedt om tidligpensjon under ny ordning. Samtidig er som kjent behovene store i helsesektoren (f.eks. Oslo Universitetsstykehus), i kommunene (samhandlingsreformen) og når det gjelder infrastruktur. For ikke å snakke om det desperate behovet for bedring av sikkerheten mot eventuelle nye terrorangrep. Noe må gi etter om handlingsregelen skal holdes. Vi venter derfor at handlingsregelen holdes bare så vidt. Det kan da kalles et stramt budsjett i den forstand at handlingsregelen nå tillater mindre ekspansivitet enn det en så for seg for noen måneder siden. Noe vi synes er interessant, er at norske politikere er mer opptatt av å stramme inn enn å stimulere når situasjonen i omverdenen er så svak som den er. Statsministeren virker alltid veldig paradoksal når han hevder at vi må stramme inn for å sikre arbeidsplassene. Fra sin økonom-bakgrunn vet han at poenget ikke er å sikre antall arbeidsplasser, men hva slags arbeidsplasser vi skal ha eksportrettede eller rettet mot hjemmemarkedet, medregnet offentlig sektor. Skulle vi oppleve at også norsk økonomi svekker seg i løpet av året, vil nok pipa få en annen låt. Ansvarlig for dagens rapport: Knut Anton Mork Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, , knmo01@handelsbanken.no Kari Due-Andresen, , kadu01@handelsbanken.no Ida Wolden Bache, , idba01@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, , nikn02@handelsbanken.no 6. oktober

3 Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK EUR/USD USD/NOK USD/JPY SEK/NOK EUR/JPY Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK EUR/GBP ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK GBP/USD CHF/NOK EUR/CHF JPY/NOK EUR/SEK Vår prognose < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK EUR/DKK Foliorente SGD/NOK USD/KRW EUR/NOK CAD/NOK USD/RUB Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 09:45 Italia PMI tjenester September Balanse 48,4 47,3 45,8 09:50 Frankrike PMI tjenester September Balanse 52,5 52,5 51,5 09:55 Tyskland PMI tjenester September Balanse 50,3 50,3 49,7 10:00 Norge Norges Banks regionale nettverk 10:00 Eurosonen PMI tjenester September Balanse 49,1 49,1 48,8 10:30 Storbritannia PMI tjenester September Balanse 51,1 50,5 52,9 11:00 Eurosonen Detaljomsetning August Prosent m/m 0,2-0,3-0,3 14:15 USA ADP privat sysselsetting September Tusen m/m :00 USA ISM utenom industri September Balanse 53,3 53,0 53,0 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 10:00 Norge Statsbudsjett for :00 Tyskland Industriordre August Prosent m/m -2,8 0, :00 Storbritannia Bank of England annonsering 13:45 Eurosonen ESB annonsering 6. oktober

4 14:30 Eursonen ESB pressekonferanse 14:30 USA Nye dagpengesøknader Uketall 6. oktober

5 Research Disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ) is responsible for the preparation of research reports. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information which SHB considers to be reliable. SHB does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. No independent verification exercise has been undertaken in respect of this information. Any opinions expressed are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and reflect their judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or investment advice. Reliance should not be placed on reviews or opinions expressed when taking investment or strategic decisions. SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. SHB and/or its affiliates provide investment banking and non-investment banking financial services, including corporate banking services; and, securities advice to issuers of securities mentioned in research reports. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen), and authorised and subject to limited regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. In the United Kingdom, the research reports are directed only at Professional clients and Eligible counterparties (as defined in the rules of the FSA) and the investments or services to which they relate are available only to such persons. The research reports must not be relied upon or acted on by private customers. UK customers should note that SHB does not participate in the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment business and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that SHB has to its customers under the regulatory system in the United Kingdom. SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. The views contained in SHB research reports accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts, and no part of analysts compensation is directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. For specific analyst certification, please contact Robert Gärtner In the United Kingdom SHB is regulated by the FSA but recipients should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme not the rules of the FSA made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of private customers apply to this research report. When Distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. SHB and its employees are not subject to the FINRA s research analyst conflict rules. SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person. Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any fixed-income product discussed within the research reports should call or write SHB. Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number ( ). Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, In Finland by the Financial Supervision of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. SHB has recently had, currently has, or will be seeking corporate finance assignments with the subject company. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted guidelines to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify, eliminate, avoid, deal with, or make public actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( ethical walls ) in communication between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The guidelines also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines and guidelines on conflicts of interests relating to analysts, please see the Bank s website the bank/ir/corporate social responsibility/ethical guidelines or Guidelines for research.

6 Contact information Capital Markets Per Beckman Head Per Elcar Global co-head of Equities Björn Linden Global co-head of Equities Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research and Chief Economist, SHB Magnus Fageräng Head of Structured Products Dan Lindwall Head of Corporate Capital Markets Peter Karlsson Head of Equity & Credit Research Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Kjell Arvidsson Head of Loans Pär Jäderberg Head of Structured Finance Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Economic Research Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Swedish Economy Eva Dorenius Web Editor Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange & Commodities Carl Cederschiöld Head of Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Warwick Salvage Head of Fixed Income Håkan Larsson Head of Currencies Magnus Strömer Head of Commodities Patrik Castman-Langlet Head of Derivative Sales Lars Henriksson Head of F/X Sales Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, parental leave Martin Enlund Acting head Jenny Mannent Senior FX Strategist Johan Sahlström Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Economic Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Danish economy Thomas Haugaard Latin America, Emerging Markets Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Economic Research Tuulia Asplund Finnish economy Olli Hyytiäinen Finnish economy Norway Knut Anton Mork Head, Economic Research Ida Wolden Bache Norwegian economy Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Kari Due-Andresen Norwegian economy Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Karl-Johan Svensson Gävle Andreas Edvardson Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Gunnel Welford Luleå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Christiane Junio Malmö Jonas Darte Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Umeå Kenneth Båtsman Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen Allé 11, Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC