Morgenrapport, Fredag, 24. april 2009

Morgenrapport, Fredag, 24. april 2009 Bedre enn ventede tall fra eurosonen, men verre enn ventet boligtall fra USA Geithner ser tegn til bedring IMF dobler lånerammene for fattige land Internasjonalt Amerikansk bruktboligsalg for mars falt langt mer enn ventet til 4,57mill fra 4,71mill. Når det gjelder håp om oppgang i boligmarkedet er det tilknyttet salget av brukte boliger, ikke nye (i krisetider kjøper man ikke flunka nye leiligheter, men heller brukte). Når bruktboligsalget forsetter å falle slik det gjør, kan vi ikke annet enn å tolke dette som negativt. Dog ser vi at medianprisen økte, noe vi finner merkelig, ettersom pris ofte er en lagget indikator i forhold til tilbud vs etterspørsel i omsetningen. Antall nye amerikanske ledighetssøknader (initial claims) for sist uke kom inn omtrent som ventet på 640. Markedet reagerte derfor ikke stort, men nå skal vi ikke se oss blinde på forventninger. For sammenlignet med uken før var det en videre oppgang. Som nevnt for en uke siden ser det ut til at initial claims har begynt å flate noe ut, men continued claims (dvs fortsatt søkende) fortsetter å øke. Sistnevnte økte også en god del denne gang, med ca 93.000 personer. I sitt innlegg i dagens Financial Times skriver finansminister Geithner at det nå er noen tegn til bedring i økonomien, blant annet ved at nedgangen i verdenshandelen avtar og at situasjonen i enkelte finansmarkeder er noe bedret. Dog advarer han igjen mot at 2009 kommer til å bli et vanskelig år og at verdenshandelen vil oppleve den verste kollapsen siden krigen. Han gjentok også formaningen om å opprettholde stimulansetiltak, selv om situasjonen lysner noe (eller mindre mørkere om du vil). Det siste vil Geithner antagelig presisere ovenfor G7- landenes finansministre når de møtes i ettermiddag. På kvelden skal møtet utvides til å inkludere alle G20- landene. Geithner skriver også videre om en kollektiv stimuleringspakke for 2008-10 fra G20-landene, som av IMF er anslått til $5.000mrd. Lynestimat for den eurosonens innkjøpssjefsindeksen (PMI) for april kom inn bedre enn ventet og opp fra sist for både Frankrike og Tyskland, hvilket dro meg seg den totale indeksen for eurosonen opp til 35,0 bedre enn ventede 33,0 samt noe opp fra sist. Vi minner om at også ZEW-indeksen for samme mnd kom inn bedre enn ventet og opp fra sist på tirsdag. Dette kan tyde på at sentimentet i eurosonen begynner å bedre seg noe eller rettere sagt; bli mindre ille. For vi skal huske på at indeksen fortsatt ligger under 50, hvilket indikerer pessimisme. Som for ZEW-indeksen tviler vi på at oppgangen er drevet av de realøkonomiske utsiktene, men heller av de mange stimulansetiltakene som har frisket opp sentimentet noe. Samtidig skal vi huske på at sentiment er sentiment, og det kan fort endre seg. Derfor er det spesielt viktig å fokusere på trenden her. Men det er ikke bare sentiment som kom inn bedre enn ventet. Faktiske tall for eurosonens industriordre for februar falt en del mindre enn ventet (se tabell nedenfor). Nå vet vi at ordretall gjerne fungerer som en fremadskuende indikatorer for faktisk produksjon. Isolert sett er det et mindre dårlig tegn for fremtidig produksjon, men nå skal vi passe oss for å trekke for enkle konklusjoner i disse unormale tider. Dollaren har fortsatt å svekke seg mot euroen med ca 2 cent, uten at vi helt klarer å se de ovennevnte tallene som noen drivfaktor for det. Antagelig er det nok heller den generelle følelsen av bedring, som Geithner altså også skriver om, som er grunnen (husk at dollaren for tiden styrker seg på økt risikoaversjon og omvendt). I samme gate kan vi nevne at Credit Suisse kom med bedr enn ventede kvartalstall. Yen har styrket seg mot dollaren, men Nikkei er noe ned. Lange amerikanske statsrenter og korte pengemarkedsrenter er omtrent uendret, mens Wall Street er ørlite opp. IMF uttaler at det vil doble lånerammene for fattige land for å demme opp om finanskrisens virkninger for disse landene. På dagens møte mellom IMF og Verdensbanken skal partene diskutere hvordan IMF skal tilskaffe $6mrd ekstra til fattige lånetakere. Svensk arbeidsledighet for mars økte videre til 8,3%, i tråd med markedskonsensus. Dagens hovedfokus blir de amerikanske tallene for varige industrivarer for mars. Kjernen, dvs sivile kapitalvarer utenom fly, er ventet å falle med 2,1% m/m, markant ned fra en vekst på 7,1% sist. Kl.10 får vi den tyske sentimentindeksen fra IFOinstituttet. Ellers får vi også britisk detaljomsetning for samme mnd, og foreløpig BNP-tall for 1.kv. For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

Norge Kronen styrket seg gjennom hele dagen i går, men noe av dette ble reversert i løpet av kvelden/natten, slik at styrkelsen endte på om lag 4 øre mot euro. Ettersom USD svekket seg mot euro, har kronen styrket seg med hele 10øre mot dollar. 3mnd NIBOR-rente ble fikset opp 4bp, mens 10årig statsrente også er opp med omtrent det samme. Gjedrem holdt foredrag i går på NHH, men sa intet nytt. Norges Bank la ikke ut foredraget på sine sider, og opplyste heller at talen var basert på Pengepolitisk rapport og pressekonferansen i forbindelse med sist rentemøte. Neste uke får vi en langt mer begivenhetsrik makrotalluke enn det de siste to ukene har vært. Da får vi nemlig kredittvekst, detaljomsetning, varekonsum, arbeidsmarkedstall, SSBs konjunkturbarometer og boligpriser for april. Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, +47 2294 0881, knmo01@handelsbanken.no Shakeb Syed, +47 2294 0707, shhu02@handelsbanken.no For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK 8.7179 EUR/USD 1.3178 2.80 2.56 2.86 2.86 2.94 USD/NOK 6.6160 USD/JPY 97.05 SEK/NOK 0.8037 EUR/JPY 127.87 Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK 1.1699 EUR/GBP 0.8984 2 ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK 9.7080 GBP/USD 1.4675 2.89 3.27 3.84 4.20 4.50 CHF/NOK 5.7629 EUR/CHF 1.5126 JPY/NOK 6.8129 EUR/SEK 10.8520 Våre prognoser < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK 4.7211 EUR/DKK 7.4496 Foliorente 1.50 1.50 1.50 SGD/NOK 4.4259 USD/KRW 1342.3 EUR/NOK 8.60 8.50 8.40 CAD/NOK 5.4150 USD/RUB 33.4376 Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 09:30 Sverige Arbeidsledighet Mars Prosent 8,0 8,3 8,3 09:58 Eurosonen PMI, sammensatt, lynest April Indeks 38,3 41,0 40,5 11:00 Eurosonen Industriordre Februar Vekst, m/m -3,4-2,4-0,6 14:30 USA Nye trygdesøknader Uke 16 Antall tusen 613 630 640 16:00 USA Bruktboligsalg Mars Antall millioner 4,71 4,68 4,57 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 10:00 Tyskland IFO, sammenlagt April Indeks 82,1 82,3 -- 10:00 Tyskland IFO, nåværende April Indeks 82,7 82,2 -- 10:00 Tyskland IFO, forventning April Indeks 81,6 82,5 -- 10:30 Storbritannia Detaljomsetning Mars Vekst, m/m -1,9-0,5 -- 10:30 Storbritannia BNP, foreløpig 1.kv Vekst, kv/kv -1,6-1,5 -- 14:30 USA Varige industriordre Mars Vekst, m/m 3,5-1,5 -- 14:30 USA Varige industriordre, kjerne Mars Vekst, m/m 7,1-2,2 -- 14:30 USA Nyboligsalg Mars Antall mill 0,337 0,340 -- 24. april 2009 3

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