Morgenrapport, torsdag, 22. desember 2011

Morgenrapport, torsdag, 22. desember 2011 Stor etterspørsel etter ESBs 3-årslån Italiensk BNP-vekst i 3.kvartal tyder på at landet igjen snart befinner seg i resesjon Amerikansk forbrukersentiment ventes å ta seg videre opp i desember Norsk arbeidsmarked stabilt Internasjonalt ESB rapporterte i går om svært stor etterspørsel etter 3- årslånet de tilbudte som del av sin strategi for å bedre likviditetssituasjonen i markedet. ESB ønsker å sikre at europeiske banker har tilgang til nok billig likviditet på mellomlang sikt slik at de kan fortsette å låne ut penger til husholdninger og bedrifter. At bankene ikke strammer inn kredittpraksisen for mye er svært viktig for å hindre en dyp økonomisk tilbakegang ettersom bankene står for rundt 80% av all lånevirksomhet i eurosonen. ESB tildelte så mye som 489 mrd euro i 3-årslån til 523 banker i går, mens det på forhånd var ventet at lånene ville beløpe seg til 250-350 mrd euro. Den massive interessen er ikke bare et uttrykk for den vanskelige likviditetssituasjonen i markedet, men også et resultat av at sentralbankene i flere eurosoneland har oppfordret bankene til å benytte seg av dette tilbudet om 3-årslån fra ESB for å redusere stigmaet forbundet med å låne fra sentralbanken. ESB sa på sin forrige pressekonferanse at de venter at de to 3- årslånene de planlegger å tilby vil bøte på de europeiske bankenes behov for å refinansiere lån som forfaller i 2012. Europeiske banker har ca 720 mrd euro i lån som forfaller til neste år, hvorav 230 mrd forfaller i første kvartal, og flere av disse bankene har i praksis vært utestengt fra finansieringsmarkedene den siste tiden. Det diskuteres nå hva bankene vil bruke lånene fra ESB til. Flere analytikere venter at bankene vil benytte disse billige lånene til å finansiere kjøp av statsobligasjoner med høyere avkastning, noe som i så fall kunne bidratt litt til å få ned skyhøye statsrenter. Men med det negative fokuset på statsgjeld, og gitt at europeiske banker snarere har benyttet den siste tiden til å redusere sin eksponering mot statsobligasjoner, er det slett ikke sikkert at de vil snu og kjøpe mer statsgjeld nå. Kun få detaljer har kommet ut med hensyn til hvilke lands banker som benyttet seg av 3-årslånet fra ESB, men det antas banker i land som er hardest rammet av den europeiske gjeldkrisen benyttet seg av størsteparten av de utlånte midlene. Sverige har allerede sagt at ingen av deres banker benyttet seg av lånene, men i Norge har DNB bekreftet at de benyttet seg av lånet. I Italia har en kilde i banksektoren fortalt at italienske banker stod for ca 110 mrd av tildelte lån, og en spansk kilde antydet at samtlige spanske banker hadde benyttet seg av 3-årslånet og tatt opp til sammen mellom 50 og 100 mrd euro i lån fra ESB. Neste 3- årslån fra ESB blir tilbudt i markedet 29. februar til neste år. Italiensk BNP falt med 0,2% i 3.kvartal, og underbygger dermed antakelsen om at Italiensk økonomi igjen snart befinner seg i resesjon. Årsveksten i italiensk BNP falt for første gang siden slutten av 2009 til 0,2%, ned fra 0,7% i 2.kvartal. BNP-tallene bekreftet at italiensk etterspørsel avtar. Kvartalsveksten i husholdningenes konsum falt med 0,2%, og var dermed også negativ for første gang siden 2009. Gitt myndighetens planer om å stramme kraftig inn til neste år, vil antakelig innenlandsk konsum falle videre. Investeringene falt også i 3.kvartal, og gitt at man venter strammere kredittpraksis fra bankene framover, vil antakelig dette bidra til å ytterligere dempe investeringene i 2012. Det amerikanske forbrukersentimentet, målt ved University of Michigan-indeksen, har nå bedret seg hver måned siden august (se figur), og det ventes at stemningen blant amerikanske husholdninger skal stige litt videre i desember. Delindeksen som måler dagens situasjon viser amerikanske forbrukeres vurdering av sine lånemuligheter og om de syns at nå er et godt tidspunkt for å skaffe seg varige goder, som for eksempel ny bil. Delindeksen for framtidsforventninger er i større grad en pekepinn på hvilken retning forbruksveksten vil ta i tiden som kommer. Begge indeksene har hatt en klart positiv trend siden august. Nivået på Michigan-indeksen er likevel langt unna hva som er vanlig i et normalår, men antakelig gjør fallet i drivstoffpriser, bedringen i arbeidsmarkedet og nå også i boligmarkedet at amerikanske husholdninger har blitt noe mindre bekymret for sin økonomiske situasjon. For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

Norge Arbeidskraftundersøkelsen viste i går at det norske arbeidsmarkedet er stabilt. Ledigheten var som ventet på 3,3% i oktober (sep-nov snitt), uendret fra september (aug-okt snitt) i går. Justert for sesong var det 20000 flere sysselsatte personer i oktober enn i juli, mens abeidsstyrken økte med 26000 personer. Dermed økte ledigheten i samme periode med 6000 personer til 89000, men ledighetsøkningen er innenfor feilmarginen i undersøkelsen. I dag publiseres også NAV-tall for registrert ledighet i desember, og det ventes at disse tallene vil bekrefte bildet av et stabilt norsk arbeidsmarked, enn så lenge. Ansvarlig for dagens morgenrapport: Kari Due-Andresen Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, +47 223 97 181, knmo01@handelsbanken.no Kari Due-Andresen, +47 2239 7007, kadu01@handelsbanken.no Ida Wolden Bache, +47 223 97 340, idba01@handelsbanken.no Nils Kristian Knudsen, +47 228 23 010, nikn02@handelsbanken.no 22. desember 2011 2

Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK 7,7295 EUR/USD 1,3064 2,71 2,68 2,83 3,07 3,37 USD/NOK 5,9204 USD/JPY 78,04 SEK/NOK 0,8613 EUR/JPY 101,94 Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK 1,0399 EUR/GBP 0,8331 2 ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK 9,2831 GBP/USD 1,5683 2,76 2,84 3,18 3,40 3,61 CHF/NOK 6,3317 EUR/CHF 1,2214 JPY/NOK 7,5839 EUR/SEK 8,9786 Vår prognose < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK 5,9777 EUR/DKK 7,4347 Foliorente 1,50 1,50 1,25 SGD/NOK 4,5686 USD/KRW 1155,3 EUR/NOK 7,70 7,80 7,80 CAD/NOK 5,7668 USD/RUB 31,5640 Gårdagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Faktisk 09:00 Sverige Konsumenttillit Desember Indeks -7,4-8 -7,4 10:00 Italia BNP endelig 3.kv Prosent m/m 0,3-0,1-0,2 10:00 Norge AKU-ledighet Oktober Prosent 3,3 3,3 3,3 10:30 Storbritannia BoE møterereferat 15:30 USA EIA råoljelagre Ukentlig 16:00 Eurosonen Konsumenttillit Desember Indeks -20,4-21 -21,2 16:00 USA Boligomsetning November Antall mill 4,25 -- 4,42 Dagens viktigste nøkkeltall/begivenheter Periode Enhet Forrige Konsensus Vår forv. 09:30 Sverige PPI November Prosent å/å 0,3 0,1 -- 10:00 Norge Registrerte ledige+tiltak Desember Antall tusen 84,3 -- 84,5 10:30 Storbritannia BNP endelig 3.kv Prosent kv/kv 0,5 0,5 -- 14:30 USA Chicago Fed indeks November Indeks -0,13 -- -- 14:30 USA BNP 3.estimat 3.kv Prosent kv/kv 2,0 2,0 -- 14:30 USA Nye dagpengesøknader Ukentlig Antall tusen 366 375 -- 16:00 USA Univ.of Michigan indeks Desember Indeks 67,7 68,0 -- 16:00 USA Boligprisindeks Oktober Prosent m/m 0,9 0,2c -- 22. desember 2011 3

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