Morgenrapport, Onsdag, 17. desember 2008

Morgenrapport, Onsdag, 17. desember 2008 Feds rentekutt ved veis ende, men jobben fortsetter med det som nå betyr noe: kredittpolitikk Norges Bank vil trolig kutte dramatisk Spenning omkring OPEC Internasjonalt Federal Reserve kuttet sin målsetting for overnattrenta i interbankmarkedet (nøkkelrenta, Target Fed Funds) fra 1% til 0%-0,25%, og sier den vil ligge der i noen tid ( for some time ). Men samtidig understreker de at de vil fortsette å gjøre alt det de kan for å støtte kredittmarkedene gjennom ekspansjon av egen balanse. Det vil si at de vil fortsette med sine nye kredittprogram og utvide dem etter som behov skulle oppstå og vil vurdere hva som kan komme ut av å begynne å kjøpe opp statsobligasjoner med lengre løpetid. Med dette har Fed markert overgang fra tradisjonell pengepolitikk det vil si kontroll med styringsrenta til fullt trykk på kredittpolitikken, det vil si Feds ulike utlånsprogram. Noen vil kalle det kvantitativ stimulans quantitative easing uttrykket som ble brukt om Bank of Japan da de for noen år siden nådde null i det korte rentenivået. Dette skal ikke overrakse noen. Ben Bernanke tok nemlig i sin tid sterkt til orde for bruk av denne typen politikk, både overfor Japan og da USA for noen år siden opplevde deflasjon som en trussel. Faktisk går nå Fed atskillig mer aggressivt til verks enn det BoJ noen gang gjorde. Det skal vi være glade for. Dette er fornuftig politikk i en vanskelig periode. Markedene reagerte voldsomt på nyhetene. Aksjer steg, avkastningen på statsobligasjoner falt med over 20 bp, og dollaren svekket seg videre med om lag 4 mot en allerede sterk euro. På en måte er dette forståelig, kanskje først og fremst for statsobligasjoner, som Fed nå sier de overveier å kjøpe opp. Men på en annen måte er vi forundret over at Feds annonsering kom som et sjokk på så mange. De korte rentene hadde nemlig allerede utspilt sin rolle, dels fordi de var blitt irrelevante i et marked der kreditt rasjoneres kvantitativt og ikke ved hjelp av renter, og dels fordi de faktiske overnattrentene i interbankmarkedet (effective fed funds) allerde hadde falt langt under den tidligere målsettinga på 1%. Det siste skyldtes at Fannie Mae og Freddie Mac hadde adgang til overnattmarkedet mellom bankene (fed funds-markedet), men ikke til reserveinnskudd hos Norges Bank. Disse innskuddene betaler samme rente som Target Fed Funds og var ment å fungere som et gulv for de faktiske overnattrentene, men tilbud av overskuddslikviditet fra Fannie Mae og Freddie Mac tvang de faktiske markedsrentene lavere. Normalt kunne Fed ha motvirket dette ved å inndra likviditet gjennom salg av statssertifikater i det åpne markedet. Men saken var nå at Fed allerede hadde solgt alle statssertifikatene de kunne unnvære for å skaffe penger til utlånsprogrammene. I praksis betyr dette at den nye målsettinga på 0%-0,25% ikke representerer noe annet enn en kodifisering av den tilstanden som allerede har hersket i noe tid. Kanskje noen fant det overraskende at Fed uttrykker seg så aggressivt om intensjonene i kredittpolitikken. I realiteten sier de imidlertid ikke noe annet enn at de vil fortsette med det de har begynt med. Videre gir de uttrykk for en svært pessimistisk oppfatning av den økonomiske situasjonen. Vi er vel egentlig noe forbauset over at markedene ikke ser ut til å ha tatt dette mer inn over seg i denne omgangen. Tidligere i går fikk vi vite at amerikansk KPI falt med hele 1,7% fra oktober til november, langt mer enn ventet, og at kjerneindeksen utenom mat og energi forble uendret i samme periode. I forhold til november i fjor betyr dette at kjerneinflasjonen kom inn på 2%, litt ned fra 2,1% i oktober. Vi fikk også sjokktall, med fall til rekordlave nivåer, for igangsetting av boliger og byggeløyver for november. Dagens kanskje viktigste internasjonale begivenhet blir OPEC-møtet, som skal diskutere produksjonskutt. Prisen stiger litt i forkant på forventninger om kutt på 2-2,5 millioner fat per dag. Det spekuleres også i at Russland og kanskje også Khasakstan skal bidra med kutt i sin produksjon. For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

Norge Krona fortsatte å svekke seg betydelig i går, igjen ledet an av svenske kroner. Dette vil være en bekymringsfaktor for Norges Bank, som holder rentemøte i dag. Risikoen er jo at dette skal øke importert inflasjon, som igjen skal svekke krona videre, slik at vi havner i en valutadrevet inflasjonsspiral tross de realøkonomiske problemene. Imidlertid tror vi den realøkonomiske svakheten vil få dem til å se bort fra denne bekymringen i denne omgang. Med nøkkelrente på 4,75% har tradisjonell pengepolitikk langt fra utspilt sin rolle i Norge slik den nå har gjort i USA. Og siden andre sentralbanker har kuttet betydelig siden Norges Banks forrige rentemøte, venter vi et betydelig kutt i dag. Som tidligere nevnt tror vi reaksjonene vil bli svært store om kuttet skulle bli på mindre enn 100 bp. Blant annet tror vi krona da ville svekke seg videre paradoksalt nok. På den annen side vil vi bli overrasket om Norges Bank kutter med mer enn 175 bp, slik Sveriges Riksbank gjorde. Som nevnt tidligere har dette fått oss til å lande på en prediksjon om et 125 bp kutt. Men vi understreker at usikkerheten er stor. For eksempel kan Norges Bank godt bestemme seg for å kutte med 100 bp nå og så signalisere utsikter til 100 bp til i januar. Men også for Norges Bank gjelder det at kredittpolitikk nå er vel så viktig som tradisjonell pengepolitikk. Likviditet og soliditet (kapitaldekning) i banksystemet, samt den generelle funksjonen i kredittmarkedene, er nå viktige ansvarsområder for Norges Bank. Vi venter å få høre noe om dette. Analytikere Knut Anton Mork, +47 2294 0881, knmo01@handelsbanken.no Shakeb Syed, +47 2294 0707, shhu02@handelsbanken.no For fullstendig ansvarsberetning henvises det til siste side

Indikative Nibor-renter Indikative valutakurser 1 UKE 1 MND 3 MND 6 MND 12 MND EUR/NOK 9,5981 EUR/USD 1,4064 4,28 4,35 4,64 4,23 3,79 USD/NOK 6,8250 USD/JPY 88,83 SEK/NOK 0,8639 EUR/JPY 124,89 Indikative swap-renter DKK/NOK 1,2878 EUR/GBP 0,9008 2 ÅR 3 ÅR 5 ÅR 7 ÅR 10 ÅR GBP/NOK 10,6582 GBP/USD 1,5618 3,28 3,40 3,96 4,33 4,62 CHF/NOK 6,0845 EUR/CHF 1,5769 JPY/NOK 7,6831 EUR/SEK 11,1120 Våre prognoser < 3MND < 6MND < 12MND AUD/NOK 4,7400 EUR/DKK 7,4503 Foliorente 3,00 2,50 3,00 SGD/NOK 4,6897 USD/KRW 1323,4 EUR/NOK 8,90 8,70 8,50 CAD/NOK 5,6835 USD/RUB 27,2060 17. desember 2008 3

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